I'm still trying to get my head around the results certification process. Ignoring any stray legal challenges there appear to be at least four possible barriers to Joe Biden being certified as President on the 6th:
- The House of Representatives and Senate refusing to accept the results - a very long shot but there seems to be a significant minority of GOP representatives in favour of this course of action.
- The demand from 12 GOP senators for a commission to investigate the vote and the results - unlikely to succeed unless the whole of the GOP in the Senate get behind it (though stranger things have happened
)
- Individual states sending through their own lists of electors which differ from those expected from the election result - is this even a real thing ?
- The "Domino" approach to overturning results. If the GOP wins both of the Georgia Senate races then can they overturn the Presidential election result ? Could this lead to other results being overturned ?
What I don't know is whether these are just desperate attempts by a few GOP representatives to defy democracy or are the GOP trying each of these things in turn and will then suddenly unify behind the approach which gets the most traction ?
In other words, death or incapacity aside, is Joe Biden 100% certain of being President on 20th January or does the GOP still have a chance of overturning the result ?
These really aren't four separate things.
So, the first one, (Congress doesn't accept the votes) in theory, could happen. It won't, but it could.
The second one (the commission) is basically tied to the first. They are saying that they won't accept the votes unless there's a commission.
The third one (states sending in separate ballots) is something that has not happened since 1876. Trump and pals have been suggesting that Republican state legislatures do it. None have. Is it a real thing? No. All states have sent in exactly one set of votes. If a state were to send in two sets, which none have, it would go to the courts first, and then to step 1, i.e. Congressional acceptance. It has never happened. It is incredibly unlikely it will ever happen. There is absolutely zero chance that it will happen this year.
The fourth one is just wrong. I think the genesis of the idea is that if they win the Senate races, they control the Senate, but you still have to go to step one, and in step one, both the House and the Senate would have to agree. Neither the House nor the Senate will agree, despite the Republican majority in the Senate.
You left out one option, though. Trump orders the military to arrest Joe Biden and declares himself President for Life. That won't happen, either, although I am sure if he thought he could get away with it, Trump would do it. There is absolutely zero chance the military would go along. He's pretty unhinged these days, though. God knows he might try it, in which case he will be arrested before being committed to a mental institution. It is just enough of a possibility that the Defense Secretaries all signed a letter saying Biden won, and it's all over but the ceremonies.
Basically, all roads to Trump victory have to go through step one, and that's a dead end. The election is over. Biden won. The only thing left to learn is how much damage will be done by idiot rioters tomorrow in Washington. If they go all out stupid on us, there could be some dramatic footage on the news. Mostly, i would expect a bunch of people with stupid signs marching through the streets, whining in unison.