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Have we passed the Dukakis threshold (The days in which his lead began to take a gradual plunge) yet?
 
BenBurch said:
I'll say it again; The wheels are coming off McCain/Palin. And if McCain makes even one more major screw-up, well, I doubt we'll be hearing much from the Repubs for at least a decade.
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Possible but let's not count chickens yet.

The next president is going to have a pretty big task in front of them. Paying back a 700 billion dollar bailout (on top of billions for other failed firms), an economy losing jobs and confidence, a situation in Iraq that hardly has a cut and dried solution and increased energy shortages and price hikes to name just a few.

I many ways I don't envy the job the next PoUS will be stepping into and while we know it isn't going to the direct fault of theirs (whoever this is) they are going to end up shouldering a good part of the blame.. Reelection under these circumstances will be difficult for either party.
 
Here's another poll that clearly labels Obama as the winner in Friday's debate...

Obama Bested McCain 48%-34% in 1st Election Debate, Poll Shows

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Viewers of the first presidential debate said Barack Obama did the better job during the event two nights ago, with 48 percent choosing the Democratic candidate compared with 34 percent for his Republican rival John McCain, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll. ...
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gdnp said:
The only question for Obama that was important in this debate was whether independent voters thought he was ready to be president. This answers that question:


Ironically, it comes down to a question of tactics vs. strategy. Obama could have "lost" on most of the questions and still won the battle by convincing the voters he had the knowledge and temperament to lead the country. McCain needed not only to win debating points but to convince the viewers that Obama was naive, inexperienced, uninformed, and dangerous. He failed.

I think Obama has passed his last major hurdle. It will be very difficult for McCain to come back: Obama just doesn't have another major weakness to exploit.
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I agree completely. Some of those numbers are more important than others, and that is the most important of all for Obama. McCain tried like hell to cast him as naive and unprepared, but it didn't work.

BTW, here is that CBS poll, although you may have seen this already. It seems like very good news for Obama and bad news for McCain.
 
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 today (50%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

That’s the fourth straight day Obama has been at 50% and the fourth straight day McCain has been at either 44% or 45%
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Obama leads by fifteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 12% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama
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That GW/Battleground tracking poll still has McCain up by 2, even today.

They're literally the only poll in the country reporting this. They're doing it by their own Likely Voter criteria, and I'm dying to know what they think they've found here.

What if it turns out they're right and everyone else is wrong? Does anybody know how these guys did in 2004?
 
Puppycow said:
I agree completely. Some of those numbers are more important than others, and that is the most important of all for Obama. McCain tried like hell to cast him as naive and unprepared, but it didn't work.

BTW, here is that CBS poll, although you may have seen this already. It seems like very good news for Obama and bad news for McCain.
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I was pleasantly surprised when Cokie Roberts made essentially the same argument on NPR this morning. She said that there is a strong Democratic tide this year and despite the burnout of the political junkies there are still people out there who haven't been paying close attention. They want to vote Democratic and were looking for some reason not to vote for Obama. This debate didn't give them one. There was a similar situation in the Reagan-Carter debate. The voters wanted to get rid of Carter but were scared by Reagan. The debate calmed their concerns.

I think Obama looked calm, intelligent, and connected to the viewers. Presidential. McCain didn't succeed in getting the "tax and spend liberal" or "unilateral disarmament" labels to stick. Thus Obama reassured the voters who really want a Democrat. A huge strategic victory.
 
David Wong said:
That GW/Battleground tracking poll still has McCain up by 2, even today.

They're literally the only poll in the country reporting this. They're doing it by their own Likely Voter criteria, and I'm dying to know what they think they've found here.

What if it turns out they're right and everyone else is wrong? Does anybody know how these guys did in 2004?
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Here's a link that shows the accuracy of pre-election polls in 2004 ...

http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/69/5/642/T1

Discussion at this link ...

http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/69/5/642

Two other firms that collaborate on the Battleground Poll conducted for George Washington University used two different (aided and unaided) trial heat questions; there are three entries for them, one for each of the participating firms (the Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, and Lake, Snell, Perry, a Democratic firm) and a composite.
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They are the oddball among the daily tracking polls, but they were just about as close as anyone else in 2004 though. I still believe Rasmussen is the most accurate based on their history.
 
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A new poll out for Pennsylvania ... with a prior poll for comparison ...

Pennsylvania (21)
September 29 - Morning Call: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
September 26 - Morning Call: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
 
Gallup still has Obama up by 8 today (50%-42%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110788/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-8Point-Lead.aspx

Today's report includes two full days of interviewing following Friday night's debate, both of which show Obama with a healthy advantage over McCain. Tuesday's report will provide the first fully post-debate three-day rolling average of voter preferences in the presidential election.
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A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted on Saturday showed that Americans who saw the debate were more likely to say that Obama did a better job than McCain.
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I believe John McCain needs two absolute knockout blow performances in the last two debates in order to win this election.
 
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