Poll Vault

[not_so_new]

I believe John McCain needs two absolute knockout blow performances in the last two debates in order to win this election.

I agree that he needs a very strong performance in these last two debates but this alone would not guarantee anything, it just happens to be that without a major knockout I think he is in serious trouble. In short, he may need a knockout to just stay in the race.

And we are leaving out the Palin Factor here. I don't think a strong showing by Palin will effect much at the polls either way but a poor showing, depending on severity, might.

So he needs a knockout in one or possibly both debates. Each will be centered around or at least heavily involve his own admitted weakness the economy. He has to do this against an opponent that has shown he can at the very least hold his own AND he needs a "hold her own ground" performance from his VeeP pick.

I think the above scenario is a pretty tall order but there is plenty of time for things to turn around so this race is far from over. I am VERY interested in seeing the polling numbers after the VeeP debate.

 

[gdnp]

Only if both Biden and Obama both show up drunk.

Or stoned.

 

[David Wong]

I don't think a VP debate is capable of moving the polls, I just don't. The infamous Quayle debate didn't move them. I just don't think people watch.

 

[gdnp]

This may be the exception. Viewership will be huge. If Palin gives a Couric-level performance McCain may take a big hit. I doubt she can do much to permanently help the ticket, but a dismal performance could drag it down further. The best she can hope to do is stem the bleeding she has been causing.

ETA: I hear the McCain campaign wants to change the format, adding a swimsuit competition.

 

[not_so_new]

I don't think a VP debate is capable of moving the polls, I just don't. The infamous Quayle debate didn't move them. I just don't think people watch.

And THAT is the difference this time. People WILL watch, it will almost assuredly be the highest viewed VeeP debate ever.

People will tune in for the drama of it, a Katie Couric interview on live TV. People like stories about lost puppies and carnage, this debate promises to have both.

Lol

 

[Pookster]

Obama seems to have a legitimate shot at North Carolina now ...

North Carolina (15)
September 29 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
September 22 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
September 22 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)

 

[Wangler]

ETA: I hear the McCain campaign wants to change the format, adding a swimsuit competition.

I want 'em to pull out two moose carcasses and time them dressing them out, head to head.

Winner gets my vote.

Double points if they can do any of the following at the same time:

1. Fire a subordinate who they have a family beef with.
   
2. Ask the moderator how they would react to a book banning request (must be asked three or more times).
   
3. Put something up on E-bay, and claim it sold.
   
4. Speak in tongues.

 

[BenBurch]

Obama's shares on Intrade today have SOARED since the bailout failed.

 

[Gnu World Order]

New polls from Rasmussen this afternoon:

Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 48
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 47
Ohio: McCain 48, Obama 47
Pennsylvania: Obama 50, McCain 42
Virginia: Obama 50, McCain 47

 

[MattusMaximus]

Obama's shares on Intrade today have SOARED since the bailout failed.

No kidding. Here's the latest...

Intrade
Obama 62.0
McCain 37.8

If you want to see something really amazing, look at Intrade's electoral college prediction market - they have Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado going blue, with Florida now dead even!

Good grief, I almost feel bad for McCain and the GOP. At this rate, they're going to get royally spanked. Wow, I'm not sensing any need for recounts on this one...

ETA: Since I posted 30 minutes ago, McCain's Intrade value has dropped to 37.0. I don't know what's falling faster, his prediction market stock or the Dow Jones - urgh. It's a bad day to be a GOP politician, it seems.

Another ETA: In addition, Florida is now blue on the Intrade market. Holy crap!

 

[gdnp]

Interesting that republicans seem to have voted against the bailout because the public is strongly against it, yet if these results play out they are being blamed for the resulting chaos.

To the extent that votes were made for political rather than economic reasons, they deserve what they get.

 

[Pookster]

That GW/Battleground tracking poll still has McCain up by 2, even today.

They're literally the only poll in the country reporting this. They're doing it by their own Likely Voter criteria, and I'm dying to know what they think they've found here.

What if it turns out they're right and everyone else is wrong? Does anybody know how these guys did in 2004?

This link has a good take on the GW/Battleground tracking poll differences ...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html

Just because a poll is an outlier doesn't necessarily mean that it's doing something wrong. Pollsters may have legitimate reasons for having a different perspective on the election, and they may also occasionally produce odd results due to chance alone.

In this case, however, the poll seems to be making a relatively fundamental mistake: it is not weighting by age.

Battleground's numbers are not even close. About 19 percent of voters were aged 65 and older in 2004, as compared to the 31 percent in the Battleground sample. On the other hand, 43 percent of voters were aged 18-44, as opposed to Battleground's 29 percent.

I generally agree with most of what is stated in that article.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has Obama up by 6 today (51%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday—the first update with results based entirely upon interviews conducted following the first Presidential Debate--shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama opened a five-point lead heading into Friday’s debate and has retained a five or six point edge every day since

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 55%. However, 40% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 26% have a Very Unfavorable view. The comparable numbers for McCain are 26% Very Favorable and 24% Very Unfavorable.

 

[Malerin]

No kidding. Here's the latest...

Intrade
Obama 62.0
McCain 37.8

If you want to see something really amazing, look at Intrade's electoral college prediction market - they have Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado going blue, with Florida now dead even!

Good grief, I almost feel bad for McCain and the GOP. At this rate, they're going to get royally spanked. Wow, I'm not sensing any need for recounts on this one...

ETA: Since I posted 30 minutes ago, McCain's Intrade value has dropped to 37.0. I don't know what's falling faster, his prediction market stock or the Dow Jones - urgh. It's a bad day to be a GOP politician, it seems.

Another ETA: In addition, Florida is now blue on the Intrade market. Holy crap!

Intrade's now at 36.5.

 

[MattusMaximus]

The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 70.1
McCain 30.9

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 53.0
McCain 45.5

NewsFutures
Obama 60
McCain 40

Intrade
Obama 63.2
McCain 36.3

Wow. It's pretty obvious to me what's happening. If I were involved in the McCain campaign, I think I'd be

 

[Pookster]

Florida (27)
September 30 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (49%-46%)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida_930354.pdf

Benefiting from increased voter concern over the economy and the declining popularity of Sarah Palin, Barack Obama has taken a 49-46 lead over John McCain in Florida. A PPP survey conducted three weeks ago, right after the Republican convention, showed McCain leading by five points in the state.

64% of poll respondents named the economy as their top issue, and within that group Obama holds a 55-40 lead. By comparison when PPP asked the same issues question in a January Florida survey just 26% said their biggest concern was the economy, and McCain led Obama by six points.

Another factor driving movement in Obama’s direction in Florida is Sarah Palin’s rapidly declining standing with voters in the state. Right after the convention 45% said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of her spot on the ticket, compared to 34% who said they were less likely to do so. Now the number saying Palin makes them more likely to support McCain has gone down to 40%, while the percentage of those saying they are less likely to do so has ticked up to 41%.

“The events of the past few weeks are pushing independents into Barack Obama’s camp,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Where McCain and Obama were tied with those voters three weeks ago, Obama now has an eight point advantage. John McCain badly needs the campaign to ‘switch topics’ if he’s going to reverse the strong movement in Obama’s direction.”

Also important to Obama’s movement in Florida is a much improved performance with white voters in the state. Where he had a 27 point deficit with them in early September, it is now down to just 11 points.

 

[Pookster]

That GW/Battleground tracking poll still has McCain up by 2, even today.

They're literally the only poll in the country reporting this. They're doing it by their own Likely Voter criteria, and I'm dying to know what they think they've found here.

What if it turns out they're right and everyone else is wrong? Does anybody know how these guys did in 2004?

They've finally tipped toward Obama today. Obama is up by 2 (48%-46%)

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up by 6 today (49%-43%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110845/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-6Point-Lead.aspx

Today's results mark the fourth straight day Obama has held a five percentage point or better lead over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and two full weeks since McCain last had any advantage over Obama in national voter preferences.

Although support for Obama among national registered voters hit the 50% mark in the past two days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking (he initially attained 50% in early September), he has yet to cross that symbolic threshold. The importance of this, however, is unclear. Gallup's historical trial heat trends show that the winners in 1988, 2000 -- both years with minimal third party candidate support suppressing the vote for the major party candidates -- rarely attained 50% or greater support from registered voters prior to Gallup's final pre-election poll.

 

[David Wong]

Outside of the one-week convention bounce, McCain has basically never led in this thing.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Outside of the one-week convention bounce, McCain has basically never led in this thing.

He should do something really maverick-y, like hold a second convention the week before the election.