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Pookster said:
Indiana may or may not be in play now ... but North Carolina sure is ...

September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election


Other recent North Carolina polls ...

September 22 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
September 22 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)
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Pookster, I really still believe that we will see an Obama landslide. I see suspension of the campaign as virtual capitulation on the part of McCain/Palin, and I just don't think they are going to come back from that.
 
BenBurch said:
Pookster, I really still believe that we will see an Obama landslide. I see suspension of the campaign as virtual capitulation on the part of McCain/Palin, and I just don't think they are going to come back from that.
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And I believe you're a hopeless optimist. ;)

You may be right, but I'm not convinced of it yet. I think it's still going to be a close election. People aren't going to change their minds on who to vote for in significant numbers to turn many red states into blue ones. Turnout within the key demographics is going to be the key. Will conservatives sit at home on election day is the big question for me. I don't think they will in significant numbers, but it may be enough to tip a a few red States unexpectedly -- like North Carolina.
 
There is still a lot that can happen. The Dow could be at 10,000 or 8,000. Banks could fail. The dollar could plummet. There could be a terrorist attack. Israel could bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. A hurricane could hit Miami. McCain's cancer could recur, or he could have a stroke. A candidate could make a major gaffe, or some bombshell from their past could be revealed.

It ain't over till it's over.
 
Gallup has it at a tie today (46%-46%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110668/Gallup-Daily-Race-Back-Tie-46-Each.aspx

This update covers interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday, and as such includes one night after McCain's announcement that he was suspending election campaigning and flying to Washington to help seek a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis. A night by night analysis of interviewing results, however, does not suggest that McCain had a dramatically better night against Obama on Wednesday. Instead, the data show that McCain has been doing slightly better for the last three days than he had in the previous week, and with some strong Obama days falling off of the rolling average
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Now that's interesting. This is the first time when following this I've ever seen Rasmussen look more volatile than Gallup.

Gallup has McCain vaulting back into a tie, Rasmussen has Obama up by 3 with a bigger lead to come (they pointed out his lead was built on a stronger last day in the 3-day period).

No idea what it means, but typically a tip in a candidate's direction means Rasmussen moves 2 points and Gallup moves 8, both in the same direction. Now they're moving in opposite directions.
 
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David Wong said:
Now that's interesting. This is the first time when following this I've ever seen Rasmussen look more volatile than Gallup.

Gallup has McCain vaulting back into a tie, Rasmussen has Obama up by 3 with a bigger lead to come (they pointed out his lead was built on a stronger last day in the 3-day period).

No idea what it means, but typically a tip in a candidate's direction means Rasmussen moves 2 points and Gallup moves 8, both in the same direction. Now they're moving in opposite directions.
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I wouldn't call Rasmussen more volatile. Gallup went from a 3 point lead to a tie in one day. Rasmussen has shown a gradual increase to over the past week.

Gallups polls seem to cause some wild swings in their nightly polling from one day to the next. Rasmussen's has always been less so. Gallup's poll seems to over-react to events before settling back to where the poll probably belongs.
 
To add to my prior post, if you look at Gallup, the numbers have been reporting as follows for the past few months or longer (excluding convention periods):

Obama: 46%-49%
McCain: 44%-47%

They're both staying pretty much in their long established scoring ranges.
 
State of the States for today ...

Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
September 24 - MRG of Lansing: McCain by 3 (46%-43%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)

Minnesota (10)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 21 - ARG: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)

New Hampshire (4)
September 25 - 7News/Suffolk: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 24 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
September 22 - University of New Hampshire: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 11 - CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Pennsylvania (21)
September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 2 (43%-41%)
September 25 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 24 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 1 (47%-46%)
September 23 - ARG: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
September 22 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Wisconsin (10)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
September 22 - ARG: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)




Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
September 24 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
September 24 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
September 23 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 18 - InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

Florida (27)
September 24 - Strategic Vision (R): McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
September 23 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
September 21 - Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
September 21 - Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Tied (44%-44%)

Indiana (11)
September 19 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: McCain by 4 (47%-43%)
September 18 - Indy Star/Selzer: Obama by 3 (47%-44%)

Iowa (7)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 21 - Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
September 21 - ARG: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 19 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Nevada (5)
September 22 - Suffolk University: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
September 17 - Project NewWest: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)

New Mexico (5)
September 22 - PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)
September 18 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

North Carolina (15)
September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
September 22 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
September 22 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)

Ohio (20)
September 25 - Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (47%-46%)
September 23 - InAdv/PollPosition: Tied (46%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 4 (50%-46%)
September 21 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 6 (48%-42%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 1 (42%-41%)

Virginia (13)
September 24 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 3 (47%-44%)
September 22 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 22 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)
September 21 - ARG: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 7 (48%-41%)





Latest National Polls:

September 25 - CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
September 25 - Gallup Tracking: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 25 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
September 25 - F&M/Hearst-Argyle: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 25 - Battleground Tracking: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
September 24 - NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
September 24 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 24 - Fox News: Obama by 6 (45%-39%)
September 24 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
September 24 - Ipsos-McClatchy: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
September 22 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 3 (48%-45%-Nader 4%-Barr 1%)
September 18 - Pew Research: Tied (46%-46%)


I added Indiana since it has been close.
 
On this day in 2004...

Bush had a lead of 6-8 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

He would never relinquish the lead, with only the occasional outlier putting Kerry up by a point or two. Otherwise it was Bush the rest of the way, with the polls tightening up in the week before the election.

Does anybody remember why we saw that last-second closing of the race? And of course on the actual election day Bush won by 3.
 
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Here's another analysis of why some polling is skewed because of the cellphone factor...

Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

... Combining polls it conducted in August and September, Pew found that of people under age 30 with only cell phones, 62 percent were Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. Among landline users the same age that gap was narrower: 54 percent Democrats, 36 percent GOP.

Similarly, young cell users preferred Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over Republican nominee John McCain by 35 percentage points. For young landline users, it was a smaller 13-point Obama edge. ...
Click to expand...
 
Pookster said:
I added Indiana since it has been close.
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The most recent numbers from Indiana are from the 19th - wow. I didn't know it was as close as it was - it'll be really interesting to see how the last week has moved things, if at all, in Indiana.
 
The latest from the prediction markets. It looks like John McCain's latest stunt is hurting him...

IEM-WTA
Obama 63.3
McCain 37.8

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 53.3
McCain 47.5

NewsFutures
Obama 58
McCain 42

Intrade***
Obama 55.7
McCain 43.6

***WTF is going on over at Intrade? Are there still those periodic spikes of short-selling Obama stock going on there anymore? It seems that this may no longer be the case (the manipulators have been stopped, perhaps?) since Intrade is now coming into line with all the other markets. Curious - it's starting to look like it was before the conventions, when all three of these markets were giving consistent results.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Wow. If this holds up in other polls, there is going to be major blowback on McCain and the GOP for this...




86% vs. 10% in favor of holding the debate - that's a pretty clear signal, in my book. I have only two questions.

1. Were the people who took this poll informed of the most current events? That is, did they know about McCain going back to DC, Obama's reaction, etc? Or were they taking the poll in ignorance of these events?

2. Are there other polls on this question?

This is, after all, only one poll, though I suspect the answer to #2 will be "many many polls by this time tomorrow". Then perhaps we'll have a clearer picture of what's going on.
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Here is a scond poll on that issue. It's not as lopsided as the first one, but 53% still want to see a debate, including 53% of independents. Most Republicans seem to have decided that they don't want a debate after all, while most democrats do, each presumably folloing the lead of their party's candidate.

This Marist Poll reports:

The Show Must Go On? John McCain proposed yesterday that he and Barack Obama postpone tomorrow night’s debate so that lawmakers may focus on handling the nation’s economic crisis. Obama wants to have the debate to discuss the issues. 42% of the national electorate agrees with the Arizona senator while 53% agrees with Obama that the debate should go on as planned.

Debates… the Deciding Factor? While 71% of registered voters nationally report they have made up their minds on the presidential race, 28% say the debates will help them decide. This includes 38% of Independent voters and 87% of undecided voters who expect the debates to influence their decision. There is little difference between the parties. 24% of Republicans and 21% of Democrats believe the debates will guide them in their choice for president.
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Puppycow said:
Here is a scond poll on that issue. It's not as lopsided as the first one, but 53% still want to see a debate, including 53% of independents. Most Republicans seem to have decided that they don't want a debate after all, while most democrats do, each presumably folloing the lead of their party's candidate.
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The independents are the real key here. The fact that most of them want to see the debate makes this whole scenario a net negative for McCain.

Bad move John, bad move.
 
Looks like Ohio may break for Obama if trends continue. I won't hold my breath for Indiana, but I am told that voter registration in Gary is at an all-time high, and that absolutely WILL have an effect.

Indiana, for those of you who are unaware is probably the most racially polarized single state. In the 1920s, the Ku Klux Klan was LITERALLY the government of the state until they fell out of power in a really awful (she died) sex scandal, and the Klan (or the remnants thereof) and the Nazis are still VERY strong in some parts of the state. Other places, like Gary, and Benton Harbor the word "minority" refers to white folks.
 
Rasmussen has Obama's lead extending to 5 today, 50-45.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

It’s stunning to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible, McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. One week ago today, the candidates were even. Now, Obama’s lead is approaching new highs entering the final few weeks of the campaign.
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