Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[BobTheCoward]

The latest YouGov poll I've seen says half of Leave voters think No Deal would be good for Britain and a quarter think it would be bad. As you may imagine, the vast majority of Remain voters think No Deal would be bad.

Which means a majority of UK people oppose hard brexit. Seems May actually accomplished a good deal based on that.

 

[Information Analyst]

There is a lot of speculation about what the remainers who voted want. Does the UK not have polls to resolve this speculation?

Remainers voted for the status quo, so suggesting there is speculation over what they want/ed is pretty weird. It's the Leavers who seem to want every variation of "leaving" - even mutually contradictory ones - who are the problem.

 

[ponderingturtle]

After Brexit the UK will run out of Mars bars within two weeks. And much more:
According to a person who has been briefed on DEFRA’s internal discussions on no deal, officials are forecasting that the disruption to food imports and exports could last for more than six months, leading to shortages on supermarket shelves and putting enormous financial pressure on businesses that depend on exports to the EU.

Hmm will the ration books be blue? That will be what the people wanted surely.

 

[Tolls]

Hmm will the ration books be blue? That will be what the people wanted surely.

Yes, but they'll be printed in France.

 

[ponderingturtle]

To quote one of May's own tautisms, 'Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'.

Of course, you can carrying on negotiating until you are happy.

Or are you one of these people who rationalises, 'Oh dear the wing mirror is hanging off and the tail lights don't work. The brakes are faulty, but I can discuss that with the smarmy car salesman another day. I'll take it. After all the poor salesman is getting a bit tired of my constantly asking for a car that meets my clear specifications. After all, his satisfaction is of more importance and priority than mine. OOOPS! The engine has just fallen out. Never mind <shrug> this is the only possible deal. I'll just have to take it and tough titties if the bumpers look a bit bent.'

Thinks to self: now I am going to have to sell my decision to the wife. Let me see. What about. 'Darling it is in the interest of our household. We ccannot go back to the car dealership and ask for a better deal. It's either the old banger I've just bought for £21K or nothing. Is that what you want? Arguments and divisions int he family about whose turn it is to use the bike?'

Well it is this or you lose your job because you can't get to work. Makes it kind of an easy sell. Pity you got rid of your old car before you even decided what kind of new car to get.

 

[ponderingturtle]

She has thrown Northern Ireland and Gibraltar to the dogs whilst mouthing lies about doing things in the 'national interest'.

Nonsense the voters did that. Brexit means brexit and they never cared at all about those foreign places.

 

[ponderingturtle]

So I don't understand how can Brexiteers imagine there doesn't need to be a border?

See it was all about taking back your borders but of course not any of the land borders.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Yes, but they'll be printed in France.

That's fine, this is all about symbols and such not jobs after all.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

See it was all about taking back your borders but of course not any of the land borders.

I used to live in West Drayton, I never realised at the time that I was scant miles from the UK's only border. [Things Brexit taught us]

 

[Dave Rogers]

Pity you got rid of your old car before you even decided what kind of new car to get.

To be fair, we haven't actually got rid of it yet, we've just decided that the will of the household is to scrap it because that's what we decided two years ago before we'd looked at buying a new one and it's inconceivable that we could allow ourselves to change our mind until after the old car's gone to the crusher.

Dave

 

[Ian Osborne]

Brexit deal 'will cost UK £100bn' by 2030

 

[BobTheCoward]

Remainers voted for the status quo, so suggesting there is speculation over what they want/ed is pretty weird. It's the Leavers who seem to want every variation of "leaving" - even mutually contradictory ones - who are the problem.

I listed the wrong group in a rush.

 

[Dave Rogers]

I listed the wrong group in a rush.

To be fair, one prominent Brexiteer in this thread did make the claim a while back that it wasn't exactly clear what Remain wanted. Frankly it didn't seem much less coherent than anything else coming from the Brexit camp.

Dave

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Can anyone explain why TM is bothering to try to convince the people she has made a good deal when the people don't have any say on it anyway? It's mostly her own MPs she has to convince at this stage.

 

[Tolls]

Brexit deal 'will cost UK £100bn' by 2030

Bloody experts!
Who needs 'em?

 

[Strawberry]

Can anyone explain why TM is bothering to try to convince the people she has made a good deal when the people don't have any say on it anyway? It's mostly her own MPs she has to convince at this stage.

I think she's hoping that people will put pressure on their MPs to vote for it.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think she's hoping that people will put pressure on their MPs to vote for it.

Interesting concept... MPs listening to their constituents.

 

[Strawberry]

Interesting concept... MPs listening to their constituents.

I know. She obviously feels its worth a try though.

 

[catsmate]

In further good news for the Brexiteer sheeple, HMRC has stated that its preparations for a Northern Ireland backstop could take up to 30 months, after the government had decided how the mechanism will work. While the Brexit transition period ends in two years.

The two permanent secretaries at the Treasury, James Harra and Jon Thompson, were speaking to the Treasury Committee this week, in what Thompson said was his thirteenth Brexit-related select committee appearance. He stated that creating the systems required for the Northern Ireland backstop could take more than two years, but also said this was based on a series of assumptions.
"It is really difficult to answer that question," he said when asked if a backstop would be ready by December 2020, which is when the transition period is currently scheduled to end.

He said that his department needed further clarity "on what exactly is required in order for us to be able to work out what IT systems we would need to build" and also on what EU IT systems and databases it would still have access to.
After the Treasury has these two sets of information, it can start to specify the operations required and build IT systems to do it (or contract that out, at significant cost). At this point "we would need businesses that are transacting towards Northern Ireland to adapt or amend their own systems".
"In broad terms, if we were to make a number of assumptions, we think it could be up to 30 months to do that work," he said.
But the clock won't start ticking until the governments reach an agreement.
PDF of the report.
Draft declaration.

ETA: I should also point out that most IT experts think 30 months is grossly insufficient, especially those who remember childcare payment system fiasco of 2014 to date.

 

[lomiller]

Er, the deal she has hammered out puts the UK in a worse position than it is already in.

Of course it did. Leaving the EU is a net negative, any deal to leave was always going to be worse than staying in the EU.

It's like asking for a pay rise and accepting a pay cut.

It’s more like taking a new lower paying job, then being surprised you end up taking a pay cut because your old employer won’t pay you after you stop working there.