Anyone heard about this dude? (pavelprorok on youtube)

[pavel_do]

Can you clarify how many within one set you need to get right for that set to count as a success?

For example, if you have five cards in a set do you need to get all five right?

That means that from the set of 5 photos one puled random and I have to identify it correct. so out of 6 runs I have to be right 5 times to bit 1000 odds ( every time 1 photo pulled out of set of 5)

 

[pavel_do]

That means that from the set of 5 photos one puled random and I have to identify it correct. so out of 6 runs I have to be right 5 times to bit 1000 odds ( every time 1 photo pulled out of set of 5)

I will include a brake in my conditions, I thinking about to perform this test with 2 photos, 10 sets. Make 6 runs, not very tiring as the more I make runs the more I get tired and all the pictures get mixed up and confusing me in my mind. So it will be 2 sets of 10 pairs ( in all 40 photos) we`ll make 6 runs, 3 times by 2 runs with the brake between the each 2 runs. That what I am thinking about.. I will have 2 sets of 10 photos, so it will make me less confused as for example let say I have 1 set, first pair in it is the House and the Sunset, and first time I will see that there is a sunset and I will be right.. so during the second test again taking the first pair there might be again the Sunset card, but my brain my get involved by saying that it cant be again as it was last time and I am just thinking about last time etc.. so to avoid it I will have 2 sets for each trial, so after each 2 runs I will have a brake to clear my mind and relax a bit from tension and stress etc..

But again guys, for now I need to make a claim, the protocol number of photos and runs and the conditions will be discussing after my claim will be accepted as for now JREF dont want to discus anything until my claim was received. If you remember from the last letter, I got from them.

So here is my claim:
"I have the ability to name the photograph that is sealed in double envelopes without seeing it first, just by holding the envelope between my hands and the concentration for a few minutes. I would prefer to use the set of photos that will be completely different from each other, like horse, gun, statue of liberty, Ship, human etc and the photos will be known to me and the set would be of the pictures that was picked by me. However, no one can speak while I perform it and there should be no destruction of any kind for that reason I prefer my eyes to be covered with the mask and I will use ear plugs to illuminate light and sound destruction, although it is important that in the room where test will be taken, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me. I will need a small brake between the runs if there will be a few runs of the testing, Although I need to come 1 hour minimum before the test to the place where it will be handled (as I need to get used to place and the people around to be calmer and make sure that I will be comfortable in my place during the test)"

Is it Good enough?

 

[steenkh]

Hmm, why only have two pictures in a set? That would take a large number of tests before the 1:1000 odds were reached (You would need 10 successful tests if your ability is 100% certain, and if you are only 50% you will have to do 10 out of 20 - I think).

My calculations are completely wrong, so please just forget them ...

 

[Pantaz]

... we told Pavel what two pictures were in the set. We shuffled the two envelopes and handed him one.

I'm not very handy with calculating statistics, but this just isn't working out in my mind. He is told that the envelope he's holding contains one of two possible images. It seems to me that to rule out random chance will require far more than 10 or 20 pairs.

Will someone please run the numbers? (And post the whole thing, please?)

 

[pavel_do]

I'm not very handy with calculating statistics, but this just isn't working out in my mind. He is told that the envelope he's holding contains one of two possible images. It seems to me that to rule out random chance will require far more than 10 or 20 pairs.

Will someone please run the numbers? (And post the whole thing, please?)

Yes please, I would appreciate it very much. To have a list of the odds.

 

[Gmonster2]

The way you did the tests choosing from 2 known pics is the same as guessing the flip of a coin. Its either one pic or the other.

So to beat odds of 1/1000 you need to get all 10 right.

So out of five runs 7 fail
7 fail
7 fail
8 fail
4 fail

 

[Startz]

Yes please, I would appreciate it very much. To have a list of the odds.

Here are some example numbers. The first column is the number of pictures that you choose from. A success is getting the picture right on the envelope you are handed. The second column is the number of times you are asked to identify a picture. I assume that each time you start over with a fresh set of envelopes. The third column is the standard you set for the minimum number right. And the last column is the probability of success by chance.

For example, the first row says that if you have to identify the picture from a set of two, you do this once, a success in the challenge is getting it right this once, then the probability of this happening by chance is 50 percent.

#picts #trials min #correct probability
2 1 1 0.50
2 10 7 0.17
2 20 14 0.06
2 20 17 0.0014
2 20 18 0.0002
5 1 1 0.20
5 10 7 0.001
5 20 14 0.000001


The calculations are only approximate. You can see that if you are comfortable identifying the sealed picture from 5 possibilities and if you can do this correctly 14 times out of 20, you will have a very powerful test.

(Apologies for the ugly formatting)

 

[Czarcasm]

Here is the description of one of the tests that I had done with 10 pairs of photos with the independent parties they run the protocol.

We would need to know the results of all the tests to see who accurate you were(how many test were there, by the way?)-we have no idea whether or not you just picked the best test out of the bunch or not.

Method

In advance of our meeting, Pavel assembled 10 sets of pictures. Each set contained two pictures; 20 pictures in total. The pictures were approximately 3.5 X 5 inches in size. When he arrived, he provided us with the sets of pictures and a name for each picture (e.g. star, dogs, ship). We placed the pictures into letter sized envelopes and then placed the letter sized envelopes into larger manila envelopes.

Was all this done while you were in the same room, or was it done without you present?

As the testing started, we told Pavel what two pictures were in the set; for example, house and sunset. Pavel then placed earplugs in he ears and a mask over his eyes. We shuffled the two envelopes and handed him one.

Were they shuffled in front of you?

He held the envelope between his hands and after a period of time, offered a guess.

For how long a period of time were you allowed to handle the envelopes?

Once he made his guess we opened the envelopes and recorded the result as either correct or incorrect. The process was repeated for each of the ten sets of pictures.

Were they opened and recorded in front of you? If so, knowing what the early ones were would definitely effect your latter guesses.

 

[Gmonster2]

knowing the results as he went makes no difference!

He was picking from 2 pics each time and knew what those 2 were he was told by the professors.

Hes doing a head or tails guess only with pictures that he knows are in there.
50% chance same as a coin flip each time he guesses...

Pavel i saw your video i don't think u were usings tricks at all , in fact you only got 1 right the gun(edit* actually none right as u didnt state which envelope the gun was in). Also u didnt say which envelope had the gun in it just one of the 3 envelopes this gives better odds for you. you claim to be able to hold the envelope and see the picture so u should be able to say which pic was in which envelope right?! Lady in white with a candle doesnt cut it for the statue of liberty too vague colour is more green blue and holding a torch not a candle and another pic was of a candle also too similar and you didnt show all the pics clearly to start with. there could have been other duplicates or outs for u in the interpretation..

I'd say if thats your practise routine plus the results from the academics u should keep practising and not waste the jrefs time...

 

[Crundy]

The protocol you did with the professors does not sound difficult enough. As someone else mentioned, it's the same as tossing a coin over and over. Watch "Derren Brown: The System" and you'll see that it's possible to flip heads ten times in a row.

Also, the fact that you are opening the envelopes after each run might be a problem. Are you able to do something similar to the protocol I suggested? The odds of getting 8/10 for my protocol are far lower than for yours (because of the number of combinations), and would take considerably less time to do the test.

 

[Marcus]

So here is my claim:
"I have the ability to identify a photograph that is sealed in double envelopes without seeing it first, just by holding the envelope between my hands and concentrating for a few minutes. I would prefer to use sets of photos that would be completely different from each other, like horse, gun, statue of liberty, Ship, human etc. The photos will be known to me and the set would be of the pictures that were picked by me. However, no one can speak while I perform it and there should be no distraction of any kind. For that reason I prefer my eyes to be covered with a mask and I will use ear plugs to prevent light and sound distraction. It is important that in the room where the test will be taken, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me. I will need a small break between the runs if there will be a few runs of the testing, although I need to come 1 hour minimum before the test to the place where it will be handled (as I need to get used to place and the people around to be calmer and make sure that I will be comfortable in my place during the test)"

Is it Good enough?

Here is your proposal with grammar and spelling corrected.

 

[Marcus]

Yes please, I would appreciate it very much. To have a list of the odds.

http://www.automeasure.com/chance.html

Law of Chance tables

 

[pavel_do]

The protocol you did with the professors does not sound difficult enough. As someone else mentioned, it's the same as tossing a coin over and over. Watch "Derren Brown: The System" and you'll see that it's possible to flip heads ten times in a row.

Also, the fact that you are opening the envelopes after each run might be a problem. Are you able to do something similar to the protocol I suggested? The odds of getting 8/10 for my protocol are far lower than for yours (because of the number of combinations), and would take considerably less time to do the test.

I am having your protocol in consideration and I appreciate it. I will make my proposal protocol by the weekend and will post it hear. But again for now we talking about claim and the protocol is the next step. You say according to brown coin can flip 10 times.. it can flip even 100 times but can it be repeated in row?
I witnessed myself ones in casino when black (on the roulette table) came up 48 times in row, and 0 came up 4 times in row. Everything is possible… there is a chance for everything but that should not be an excuse to deny curtain things just by saying…there is a chance. Cause some of the skeptics becomes cynic… with that excuse and when you tell them, if you so smart than DO it, show me the same results… and the answer is - I am not claiming to be abele to do it…

 

[pavel_do]

We would need to know the results of all the tests to see who accurate you were(how many test were there, by the way?)-we have no idea whether or not you just picked the best test out of the bunch or not.
Was all this done while you were in the same room, or was it done without you present?

Were they shuffled in front of you?For how long a period of time were you allowed to handle the envelopes?Were they opened and recorded in front of you? If so, knowing what the early ones were would definitely effect your latter guesses.

The protocols of the tests was run by them not by me and they have it all. We made a few tests during the May.

They done all the preparation in other room giving me time to relax and get ready for test.

My eyes was covered with the mask and i could not see them shuffling. Beside that even they would not know which photo is which in the pair, as envelopes was only marked with the numbers. like two envelopes with number 1 two with 2 etc.. Just that the pairs was known.

Yes they were opened in front of me to reveal the result.. Knowing the result does not make any different as when test was repeated it was all again reshuffled in the same way.. so let say 1st pair was House and Sunset, and in first run SUNSET was the one i guesses.. same sun set can appear in 2nd or 3rd run and all the runs that possible...
I was not rushed in time of holding envelope so it was between 1 to 3 minutes each.

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel i saw your video i don't think u were usings tricks at all , in fact you only got 1 right the gun(edit* actually none right as u didnt state which envelope the gun was in). Also u didnt say which envelope had the gun in it just one of the 3 envelopes this gives better odds for you. you claim to be able to hold the envelope and see the picture so u should be able to say which pic was in which envelope right?! Lady in white with a candle doesnt cut it for the statue of liberty too vague colour is more green blue and holding a torch not a candle and another pic was of a candle also too similar and you didnt show all the pics clearly to start with. there could have been other duplicates or outs for u in the interpretation...

Just to tell you that as I mentioned in the answer above there is a chance for everything.. never the less. To “guess” 3 photos pulled out of 20 in random is in exact order like when I name exact envelope is 1 to 6840 odds, and to guess them but in any order just to be right with all 3 of them is 1 to 1.140 odds..
It does make different odds when u name in exact order or in any order but still right..
As I said before and if you sew all my videos including test with 3 and 5 photos I am saying that for some reason I don’t know why my self but sometimes I see “answers” in different order… I don’t know why, the same as I don’t see exact image when I hold envelope in my hands. For that reason I was thinking to make it simple ( as even JREF encourage you to make it easy and simple for you to perform) so I thought why not to go to just 2 photos and identify one of it.
At home with pairs I done a few times 10 out of 10.. you would say, it is the same as flip the coin.. fair enough but then try to flip it in row with the result that more then just a chance let say same 7 of 10

 

[Gmonster2]

Pavel i agree with you about the coin flip odds im just saying your test was a 50-50 chance guess and as i said if u do it that way u must get 10 right to pass the jref prelim test....

You claim to get 10 at home but with the controlled tests with the professors you failed 5 times in a row what makes u think when u do the proper test for jref u will get 10?

 

[Gmonster2]

I see so what your saying is when u choose three photos randomly from 20 and u hold the 1st pic in your hands you get images from one of the other 2 chosen sitting on the desk but not from the other 17 in the pile.

 

[Crundy]

You say according to brown coin can flip 10 times.. it can flip even 100 times but can it be repeated in row?

That's what he did. Flipped heads ten times in a row. The fact is, on a long enough timeframe you can do it. Also, Brown would be capable of telling which envelope which picture is in by reading the vocal and body signals from the person holding the envelopes and saying "The two pictures are the gun and the dog". My point is that you would need to use a better design to prove your abilities conclusively.

I witnessed myself ones in casino when black (on the roulette table) came up 48 times in row, and 0 came up 4 times in row. Everything is possible… there is a chance for everything but that should not be an excuse to deny curtain things just by saying…there is a chance. Cause some of the skeptics becomes cynic… with that excuse and when you tell them, if you so smart than DO it, show me the same results… and the answer is - I am not claiming to be abele to do it…

Please don't start flaming me, I'm trying to help you come up a protocol which you will able to do, and which skeptics won't be able to pick apart after the event if you pass. If you can hold a picture in a sealed envelope against your head and see what the picture is, then you should have no problem with the protocol I suggested. Why do you want to make it look easier by having a 50/50 guess at the answer each time?

If you are trying between 2 pictures each time, then someone just guessing should be able to get 5/10. If you have a lucky day you could get 7 or 8 out of ten. You could then claim that just by being lucky, you are psychic. I don't mean to sound rude but there are a lot of fraudsters who apply for the MDC and if you arn't one of them then you should prove your abilities using a protocol which has no holes in it.

 

[pavel_do]

I don't mean to sound rude but there are a lot of fraudsters who apply for the MDC and if you arn't one of them then you should prove your abilities using a protocol which has no holes in it.

I am doing my best to design one at the moment ( I think I am doing fine), hopefully will do it this couple of days and will post it here.

 

[pavel_do]

I see so what your saying is when u choose three photos randomly from 20 and u hold the 1st pic in your hands you get images from one of the other 2 chosen sitting on the desk but not from the other 17 in the pile.

Yes, I know it sounds funny, but I don’t know how it is working exactly. When I hold envelopes for guessing, I am asking myself and try to see what picture will I see when it will be open and revealed (foresee the result), maybe that the reason as if I am foreseeing and cant really control it 100% so I might skip a bit of time and see 2nd picture first… Or sometimes during the testing with 3 photos out of 20, I would hold the first photo and see non, then would skip to a second and after I done with 2nd and 3d envelope would come back to the first one again, and usually the picture that I would see while holding envelope 2 or 3, would be the one that was in 1st and the other way around. I still don’t know how it is working and whether it my hands read the information or it is my clairvoyant abilities involved, as sometimes I know the photo without touching the envelope, don’t know how, just know it… (sorry for humble explanation and example)