I asked Remie to update us on the reception of your application.
Anyone heard about this dude? (pavelprorok on youtube)
- Thread starter The_Fire
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I asked Remie to update us on the reception of your application.
Crundy
Critical Thinker
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Doing it for 10 envelopes (and therefore ten pictures) is harder than doing it for 100 pairs of photos? When you say you want to make it as easy as possible, you seem to mean including chance as an option to assist in success.
I just did. I flipped a coin 20 times guessing the result before each toss. I got 13/20. That's pretty close to your 14/20 statement. Do I get a million dollars?
Well, yes. If you can do what you say you can do then getting 6/20 should be an absolute doddle. From your recent posts I have concluded that you cannot do what you claim to be able to do, and you manipulate the protocol you self test with until you are satisfied with the results and then bury your head in the sand.
This is the last truly sincere and useful advice I will give you. Don't bother. You are not psychic and you will only embarass yourself if you go through with this. Find something else to be good at. Something that actually exists.
pavel_do
Critical Thinker
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The test with pairs was suggested to me as the easiest one, cause that helps illuminate allot of things that could affect my results. Such as that I mentioned before, when I see photos in different order not in exact one. So in case with the pair I know that ONLY ONE will be opened and showed to me from the pair that I will hold ( one of the photos from the pair) so that eliminates one thing that is really matters. Another thing that is, when I see too many photos they make an imprint in my “inner vision” and sometimes appear when I try to see next photo, like when you look at the light and than close your eyes u still see for some time flashes though your eyes closed and it is dark…
Again I as I said I have the proposition for the test and though it is for 50/50 chance test with pairs, I am sure my propose good and self evident in the way it will be conducted as it will be self evident whether I do see something or that is just plain guesses.
Nope with a 13 (65% correct) out of 20 for 1 run you get nothing but maybe if you can get more than that or minimum 13 out of 20 every time… in a few runs, that will make it evedent that you sort of “a bit too lucky”… So then why don’t you apply?
In my final claim I stated MINNIMUM correct answers is 65%... before you and the others will say that it is easy.. I will explain… first of all that is a minimum result that I am claiming, what ever I claim any way JREF need 1.000 to be beaten as you know.. but I can state a minimum in any case.. Again if there will be 100 pairs involved than 65% (65 correct answers) will mean 1.000 odds beaten. EASY? Like a flipping coin? DO it 100 times and see the result… post it here if you do not mind, I guess it will not take allot of time to flip the coin 100 times…I can do what I claim just as I said many time before, Being reasonable with estimating my abilities and not so self-centered to think and claim I can always perform it 90-100%. As I do realize that it is one thing to show it at home and among your friends and another thing to show it to strangers with conditions and the restrictions that cause stress and tension and that it is not the best thing that helps to be calm and to perform such skills as clairvoyance.
I strongly believe that to achieve positive result in testing I would need a few runs to be performed. As that would help me to be more confident and would reduce, some of the stress that is occurs with all the condition plus knowing that if I done 1 mistake I am automatically announced FAILD that increase pressure significantly.
=) I will not be bother to stop my claim and as you said “bury your head in the sand” just because some one not believe in me. Be cause I am sincere from day one with my claims other wise would not bother waist my time and time of the others… such as running to get academic witnessing get all papers to be able to apply.. by the way.. try to get affidavit s with your flipping coins results you think that is easy? Will draw your attention that even my affidavits, was not from 1 and the only test, they tested me a few times and in a different ways. As no one would sign it just for fun a specially academics that put there names and position to it, knowing that it will be announced if necessary. Plus they would not bother to spend time with me in order to make sure that I am not just a “lucky guy” who 1 time showed the results and the others failed. They have things to do and they are busy enough with work.
Last thing.. THE TIME WILL KINDLY SHOW US! So don’t say YES before you jumped over the wall ( as we say in Russia) meaning that don’t call me fake before it was proved…
pavel_do
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Even I asked her to email me that it was received to confirms ( as last year my letter got lost) she did not come to me yet.. But I know it was delivered and some one has signed for it, as I checked online by the tracking number.
Startz
Muse
I think people are being a little unfair to Pavel in terms of the statistical analysis. There's nothing wrong with him claiming a 65 percent ability or asking for a few tries to succeed, so long as the number of trials is large enough to preclude his succeeding by chance.
For example, if correctly identifying one photo from a pair the probability of getting 65 or more right out of 100 is about 2 in 1,000. If he gets three tries to get 65 or more out of 100 correct, his chances are about 6 in 1,000.
If JREF wants only 1 out of 100 chances of success, then this will do. If 1 out of 1,000 is required, then 130 out of 200 is adequate.
My guess is that working out adequate controls will be much more of an issue than any statistical issues.
For example, if correctly identifying one photo from a pair the probability of getting 65 or more right out of 100 is about 2 in 1,000. If he gets three tries to get 65 or more out of 100 correct, his chances are about 6 in 1,000.
If JREF wants only 1 out of 100 chances of success, then this will do. If 1 out of 1,000 is required, then 130 out of 200 is adequate.
My guess is that working out adequate controls will be much more of an issue than any statistical issues.
LongFuzzy
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"there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me."
You will probably need to define what 'near me' means. How far away do any photos or pictures have to be?
I think the tests are recorded/videotaped? Would a video camera cause problems for you?
You will probably need to define what 'near me' means. How far away do any photos or pictures have to be?
I think the tests are recorded/videotaped? Would a video camera cause problems for you?
pavel_do
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No I don’t think so, as I videotaped my test for my own record and for the Youtube.
Re to how far pictures, well any visible area no photos on the wall or the table any that I can see as they can imprint in my mind as I said before, and I would ask no pictures near me in 1 meter area too in order not to “pick it up” by mistake… I don’t think it can be the case but just to be on the safe side… as when I train home the room is empty and no photos near me in visible or “invisible” way.
Crundy
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I don't get it. You claim to be able to hold a photo inside an envelope and tell what the photo is. Why do you have to compare 2 photos all of a sudden? I thought you could get specific traits of a photo, such as yellow ball etc? All I'm saying is that you have reduced your claim from "I can see a photo inside an envelope" to "given a 50/50 chance I might be able to get more than 50%, but only when I'm sitting at home by myself and not with loads of pressure on me". For one moment, take the advice of Atticus Finch, and step into my shoes and walk around; If you had seen the excuses by person after person who claimed to have super powers but made endless excuses as to why they can't do what they say they can do, how would you feel?
I disagree. I do not believe performing a 50/50 guess routine can ever prove psychic ability. This is the same as me saying "I can guess the photo inside an envelope as long as I can see it first". The protocol is just as flawed. I was trying to help you previously by coming up with a protocol that fits your claims and would conclusively prove you are psychic. You seem to have no interest in this, which speaks volumes.
Nope with a 13 (65% correct) out of 20 for 1 run you get nothing but maybe if you can get more than that or minimum 13 out of 20 every time… in a few runs, that will make it evedent that you sort of “a bit too lucky”… So then why don’t you apply?
There are a few questions here. Firstly, how is it easier to do a 50/50 test over and over, after which (when you fail) you will just blame it on everything other than your lack of psychic ability. Secondly, I did not apply for the MDC based on me getting more than 50% on a 50/50 chance because IT WOULD NOT BE ACCEPTED AS A PROTOCOL!!! Why is that so hard to understand?
I am getting my own psychic visions right now. Here is my prediction for your test:
1) You will suggest a 50/50 protocol, which will be rejected
2) A proposal will be forwarded by the JREF similar to mine
3) You will argue about it for a bit, and then self test yourself. You will fail.
4) You will make up a load of excuses, delay testing, and your file will be closed.
The alternative is that you will go through with the protocol I suggested and will fail. either way...
OK, I am willing to accept that you do believe in your abilities and you are not a fraud.
Again, I'm not applying for the MDC, you are. But believe me, I could get affidavids for anything, on a long enough timeframe. Anecdotal evidence does not equal proof.
Indeed. Time will tell. Please see my psychic predicion above.
Good luck Pavel, you will need it.
Crundy
Critical Thinker
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- Feb 8, 2008
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P.S. Pavel, consider this protocol:
I have a large screen with two holes in it in which I place my hands through, palm side up. 10 People walk up to my hands and place one of their hands over one of my hands, and I have to guess straight away which hand it was. This was a test performed on a psychic many years ago, and they achieved 4/10 which is a bit worse than if they had been guessing. Derren Brown (not psychic) got 9/10 on this test, and on the person he got it wrong on, he called them back, got the right hand, and then deduced lots of facts about the person, including that they had two jack russell dogs, just from holding on to his hand.
This man is not psychic, and so I would like you to be able to perform better than this. Derren could convince a lot more people than you that he is psychic.
P.P.S. I can't find the above video on youtube. If anyone finds this clip could they link to it please? It is a good watch.
I have a large screen with two holes in it in which I place my hands through, palm side up. 10 People walk up to my hands and place one of their hands over one of my hands, and I have to guess straight away which hand it was. This was a test performed on a psychic many years ago, and they achieved 4/10 which is a bit worse than if they had been guessing. Derren Brown (not psychic) got 9/10 on this test, and on the person he got it wrong on, he called them back, got the right hand, and then deduced lots of facts about the person, including that they had two jack russell dogs, just from holding on to his hand.
This man is not psychic, and so I would like you to be able to perform better than this. Derren could convince a lot more people than you that he is psychic.
P.P.S. I can't find the above video on youtube. If anyone finds this clip could they link to it please? It is a good watch.
pavel_do
Critical Thinker
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- Aug 7, 2007
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the propose for the testing of my claim.
Dear all who happened to read this tread, irrelevantly from whether you believe in me or not.
As my claim was accepted by JREF, the next step will be to negotiate the test protocol. Since the JREF busy for now with TAM and only after that will be able to discuss any protocol I would like to save some time and try to prepare best possible proposition to JREF for testing my claim.
I am posting my propose for testing, it is a draft that I have done for now, and the final version of it will be sent to the JREF for reviewing and possible shaping it to suet us both in order to test and prove or disprove the ability that is claimed by me.
In this propose I tried to describe the way I see it would be good for me, list the possible things that could affect my results. I will appreciate your opinion about it whether some part are good or bad, what you like from it and what you don’t. I will be glad to answer any question for any condition or thing in my propose, will be glad to explain what is the reason for any of the proposed condition. Please don’t just write something like.., that is too easy and will be accepted and don’t expect JREF to change it for you etc… Instead of it please tell me your point and ask me why am I asking for one or the other thing. I am sure that will help me to come up with good propose and if JREF would find it suitable it will save allot of time for both sides and the testing can be arranged in yearly days… As I would like it to be in US while I am here, and I cant stay here for ages..
So the draft is more or less describing my view for the test. The numbers of runs, pairs and the other details will be negotiated later but for now I done it as possible example with 100 pairs test.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Propose of the protocol to test my claiming powers.
Without looking in any possible- physical ways in side of the sealed envelope, just by holding it between my hands, I will be able to identify the photo that will be inside and will name it.
Out of 100 sets, I will get at 65 correct (65 % accuracy). If I get less than 65 correct, I accept that I was not able to perform my abilities successfully under/according the conditions and the protocol that was agreed before the test by both sides such as Myself and JREF and that the test results are negative. With 65 or more correct, the test result is positive.
Materials required:
20/40 photographs 3.5 x 5 inches printed from the files that I will assemble in advance. ( in case of 10 runs by 10 we`ll need 20 photos to make 10 pairs and 40 photos to make 20 pairs respectively for the testing with 20 pairs per run.)
20/40 letter sized envelopes
20/40 larger manila envelopes
Pencil
Paper sheet with the list of the pairs in order from 1 to 10/20. ( Separated by 10 in a column, in case when 20 pairs used per run.)
There should be separate sheet- listing the photos for each run of the trial, so for the 10 runs there should be 10 lists.
Environment stipulations:
No talking or any kind of distraction with light or sound or any other ways of interruption during the test. No photography during the test will be allowed as the flash or the sound produced by the camera can be distracting.
No trickery, or cheating from either Pavel or JREF or other parties present in room during the test. The environment should be established to give me the best chance of success and JREF the assurance that my abilities are real.
No substance with a strong odor will be allowed in the room same, include people who might use perfume that has strong odor and that can cause distraction during the concentration and a headache due to the strong smell.
It is important that in the room where the test will be held, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me.
What Will Constitute a Successful Test:
If I am able to identify 65 photos out of 100 sealed envelopes just by holding it between my hands, the test will be successful.
Time required:
No more than ______ hours (depending of the number of runs 3/5/10
and the sets of 10/20 pairs)
To do and agree:
List of the photographs and the name for each of it. (depend on the agreed numbers of pairs)
Example.
1. Star
2. Ship
3. House
4. etc.
List of the possible pairs and the numbers that will be attached to it.
As an example with the 1st pair. Photo of the Pyramids and the photo of the Apple will be placed in double envelopes and both of them marked with number ONE to make a pair of two envelopes marked with number 1.
1. Pyramids and Apple
2. Ship and Flowers
3. Horse and Candles
4. Sunrise and Clock
5. Statue of Liberty and Dogs
6. Cross and valley with sun.
7. Houses (street with the blue sky) and Mask
8. Elephant and Scissors
9. Monroe and Moscow
10. Dali’s Christ and Clock (Black and white circle shape)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. German shepherd and house in tries
12. Egypt (colorful) and Charles Chaplin
13. James Randy and White cross on the black background
14. Telephone and running horse
15. Clock (in color) and Statue of liberty with blue sky
16. Dolphin and wooden cross (in color)
17. Black shoe (with red inside) and Valley with blue sky and moon
18. African elephants and black and white clock circles
19. Burning candle and Blue cattle
20. Selling ship and Egyptian pyramid with sphinx
Preparation:
By a third party in a separate room all the pictures that are used in the testing will be placed into letter sized envelopes and then place the letter sized envelopes into larger manila envelopes.
The envelopes will be checked for marks, folds, creases etc by JREF representatives before being brought into the test room.
Each envelope in the pair will then be marked-numbered 1 – 10/20 using a pencil.
The numbers should be marked slightly by pencil, so that can be visible on the envelope in order to identify the current pair by the number on it.
The marks should be made in the following order.
Photo of the Pyramids and the photo of the Apple will be placed in double envelopes and both of them marked with number ONE to make a pair of two envelopes marked with number 1.
Etc… according to agreed list of photos and pairs.
For each run there shell be prepared separate set of envelopes, in order to save time in replacing photos in the new envelopes and remarking them. So if there will be agreed 5 runs by 20 pairs, in this case 5 identical sets of 20 pairs in each have to be prepared in advance.
Test settings:
1. The photos will be placed in envelopes in separate room by a third party with the supervision of a JREF representatives who will make sure that there will be no interference in the process of preparation of the photo pairs for the test.
2. After I am situated, ready, and comfortable, I will cover my eyes with a mask and my ears with the plugs and will have 10 minutes to get ready and relax.
After that, the testing shell begin, and one random envelope from the first pair shell be handed to me.
3. I would need up to 3 minutes to hold each envelope.
The test.
Marked envelopes arranged by the pairs and with the label numbers on it matching the pair, shell be arranged and prepared to be used in test.
By the third party (a person who was not involved in the process of placing photos in the envelopes), each pair has to be shuffled to make sure that no one in the room including the person shuffling the envelopes, knows the order of the photos in pairs. Then, one photo of the pair will be chosen at random and passed to the person who will bring it to the room where the actual test will be held.
Or all single envelopes from the pairs can be drawn at one time and then carried in the testing room together in arranged order from 1 to 10/20.
The person will give me the envelope of the current pair, with no words or any other sound signs.
At that time, my eyes will be covered by the mask and earplugs will be placed in my ears and I will be sitting at the desk table. On the table, there should be nothing but the sheet with the listed pairs and the pencil*. With those conditions I will be able to remind myself what the photos are in the following pair without any sounds and announcing. For that reason the envelopes must be handed to me in strict order from 1st to the 10/20th
I will hold the envelope between my hands for a period of 1 to 3 minutes, and then will offer my guess for the photo that is in the envelope held by me. **
After I announce the answer, another third party will open the envelope in front of everyone including me*** and will reveal the photo that was inside. Then the result will be recorded as either correct or incorrect by me and by the JREF or any other party who will be in the room.
Or the Blind way.
(The person will give me the envelope of the current pair, with no words or any other sound signs that would in any way suggest or define the order number for the envelope from the pair that will be handed to me.
I will hold the envelope between my hands for a period of 1 to 3 minutes. While I’ll hold it I’ll describe a laud the visions that I’ll be seeing, will draw them if necessary. After the describing and possible drawings will be finished, I will hand the envelope back to the third party, will take the mask off and will offer my guess for the photo that is in the envelope held by me, based on the visions and signs that I shell see while I hold the envelope. After that the number of the current pair shell be showed to me and still with no words or any other signs I will look to the list of pairs and will offer my final decision on what the current photo is. **
After I announce the answer, another third party will open the envelope in front of everyone including me*** and will reveal the photo that was inside. Then the result will be recorded as either correct or incorrect by me and by the JREF or any other party who will be in the room) (I think with the blind way of testing I would be comfortable. I am training this way lately.)
In this case I am sure many times I will be able to describe the current picture exactly, before I’ll even know the number of pair and which 2 pictures there are.
The same procedure will be done with all pairs of photos in order from 1st to the 10/20th pair. And during all runs that will be agreed, until the last envelope will be identified by me and my “guess” will be announced.
I would need 5/10 minutes brake between runs with sets. As in case, if it will be set with 20 pair used than I would need 5/10 minutes brake between every 10 pairs and 10/15 minutes between run with every next set of 20 pairs. In case when 10 pairs set will be used, I would need only 10/15 minutes brake between the runs.
After all the tests-runs will be complete, the JREF representative will announce the results for the Preliminary Test as either Positive or Negative.
Remarks:
*A single paper sheet with thumbnail images of the pictures in order of the pairs also labeled from 1 to 10/20 will be on the table with me. I would need a pencil to make notes and marks.
Or the list of all the pairs in the order that was agreed before, (without thumbnail images on it, to avoid confusion and the chance that seeing pictures any extra time before “guess”, will make an imprint in my mind and will affect the answer for naming the right envelope).
Either way will be agreed in the final protocol.
With the list of pairs I will be able to remind myself what the photos are in the following pair without any sounds and annunciations. For that reason the envelopes have to be marked/handed to me in strict order from 1st to the 10/20th.
The purpose of using the mask and earplugs is to eliminate an extra distraction such as sound and light, which will help me to concentrate better. At the same time, the mask, earplugs and the list of pairs at the test, will help to eliminate chances that I am guessing which envelope by reading the vocal and body signals from the person holding the envelopes and naming it. E.g., "The two pictures are the star and the dogs" and pointing out in some way to the “right” guess.
**If I am not sure in my answer, I would like to announce it by saying “I am not sure” and that envelope shell be placed a side and I shall try to identify it after the rest of the pairs have been named by me. In the case that I am unsure of a few envelopes, all of them shall be put aside (remaining in the same room but off the table) until the end of my “work” with the rest of the pairs. After the “doubted” envelopes shall be passed to me for the final identification in the order that they were initially given to me.
*** I need to know the result of my guess immediately after I name the photo. I prefer this because, when I hold the envelope I am trying to foresee what will I actually see when the photo will be revealed. So I need to see the actual photo immediately after I offer my guess during the test.
Notes:
1. No talking (or signaling!) during the test from any person who will be present in room.
2. No text messaging or phone calls allowed, as the sms and call alerts can distract my concentration and affect the result of my answer. (The smsing during the test is not permitted either, as the sound of the constantly clicking buttons can be very irritating and distracting). For that reason, all mobile phones in the room, must be switched to a silent mode to eliminate interruptions of the testing. If anyone needs to make calls or sms, it can be done during the brake between runs
3. Any person that is present at the testing may raise his or her hand during the demonstration to inform the others of suspicious behavior of anyone in the room. However, no shouting or interruptions will be allowed during the process of identifying the photo. If there are any doubts or suspicions, the person shall raise his/her hand silently and inform the others after I have finished with identification of the current photo and announced my answer.
I would prefer:
1. I want to do the test in United States, in Charlotte, North Carolina to avoid traveling that can affect my state due to the road sickness or the climate change. Testing should be done in the presence of objective people which both as JREF and I can trust. I want to be able to approve the people that are present during the testing, e.g. it can’t be more than 10 people in the room during the test.
2. I want to bring with me a friend Vladimir Sirovitskiy who will be present at the testing as a support.
After the test will start, there will be no talking or any kind of communication between us until the test will be complete and the last photo will be identified and announced.
3. I also would like Dr. Eric D. Heggestad, and Dr. Linda Shanock, the academics that tested me to produce affidavit letters for application for the challenge, to be present during the test (if they are able to attend it) as the independent parties and witnesses –supervisors.
4. I would like the testing to take place in the afternoon, as I would need time to have rest and sleep enough hours and get ready for the test. (As due to the stress with the upcoming test I might have a problem to sleep) For example, it can start at 1 pm where I will arrive at 12 noon, an hour before.
5.Although if it is possible to have the test during the weekend days, so that everybody will be able to attend it and arrive in time, as some of the people that I would like to attend my testing, might be engaged with work at midweek days.
6. I would prefer the weather conditions to be good at the day of testing, as I am sensitive to the low atmospheric pressure and often get headaches, feel low and tired when it is cloudy and the atmospheric pressure is low.
7. I prefer to know the result of my guess immediately after I name the photo. I prefer this because, when I hold the envelope I am trying to foresee what will I actually see when the photo will be revealed. So I need to see the actual photo immediately after I offer my guess during the test.
Sincerely yours,
Pavel
-----------------------------------
I am still doing my best to find the most suitable way and optimal number of pairs, runs etc.. For now I would ask you to pay more attention to the test it self not to the numbers and runs in it.
Dear all who happened to read this tread, irrelevantly from whether you believe in me or not.
As my claim was accepted by JREF, the next step will be to negotiate the test protocol. Since the JREF busy for now with TAM and only after that will be able to discuss any protocol I would like to save some time and try to prepare best possible proposition to JREF for testing my claim.
I am posting my propose for testing, it is a draft that I have done for now, and the final version of it will be sent to the JREF for reviewing and possible shaping it to suet us both in order to test and prove or disprove the ability that is claimed by me.
In this propose I tried to describe the way I see it would be good for me, list the possible things that could affect my results. I will appreciate your opinion about it whether some part are good or bad, what you like from it and what you don’t. I will be glad to answer any question for any condition or thing in my propose, will be glad to explain what is the reason for any of the proposed condition. Please don’t just write something like.., that is too easy and will be accepted and don’t expect JREF to change it for you etc… Instead of it please tell me your point and ask me why am I asking for one or the other thing. I am sure that will help me to come up with good propose and if JREF would find it suitable it will save allot of time for both sides and the testing can be arranged in yearly days… As I would like it to be in US while I am here, and I cant stay here for ages..
So the draft is more or less describing my view for the test. The numbers of runs, pairs and the other details will be negotiated later but for now I done it as possible example with 100 pairs test.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Propose of the protocol to test my claiming powers.
Without looking in any possible- physical ways in side of the sealed envelope, just by holding it between my hands, I will be able to identify the photo that will be inside and will name it.
Out of 100 sets, I will get at 65 correct (65 % accuracy). If I get less than 65 correct, I accept that I was not able to perform my abilities successfully under/according the conditions and the protocol that was agreed before the test by both sides such as Myself and JREF and that the test results are negative. With 65 or more correct, the test result is positive.
Materials required:
20/40 photographs 3.5 x 5 inches printed from the files that I will assemble in advance. ( in case of 10 runs by 10 we`ll need 20 photos to make 10 pairs and 40 photos to make 20 pairs respectively for the testing with 20 pairs per run.)
20/40 letter sized envelopes
20/40 larger manila envelopes
Pencil
Paper sheet with the list of the pairs in order from 1 to 10/20. ( Separated by 10 in a column, in case when 20 pairs used per run.)
There should be separate sheet- listing the photos for each run of the trial, so for the 10 runs there should be 10 lists.
Environment stipulations:
No talking or any kind of distraction with light or sound or any other ways of interruption during the test. No photography during the test will be allowed as the flash or the sound produced by the camera can be distracting.
No trickery, or cheating from either Pavel or JREF or other parties present in room during the test. The environment should be established to give me the best chance of success and JREF the assurance that my abilities are real.
No substance with a strong odor will be allowed in the room same, include people who might use perfume that has strong odor and that can cause distraction during the concentration and a headache due to the strong smell.
It is important that in the room where the test will be held, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me.
What Will Constitute a Successful Test:
If I am able to identify 65 photos out of 100 sealed envelopes just by holding it between my hands, the test will be successful.
Time required:
No more than ______ hours (depending of the number of runs 3/5/10
and the sets of 10/20 pairs)
To do and agree:
List of the photographs and the name for each of it. (depend on the agreed numbers of pairs)
Example.
1. Star
2. Ship
3. House
4. etc.
List of the possible pairs and the numbers that will be attached to it.
As an example with the 1st pair. Photo of the Pyramids and the photo of the Apple will be placed in double envelopes and both of them marked with number ONE to make a pair of two envelopes marked with number 1.
1. Pyramids and Apple
2. Ship and Flowers
3. Horse and Candles
4. Sunrise and Clock
5. Statue of Liberty and Dogs
6. Cross and valley with sun.
7. Houses (street with the blue sky) and Mask
8. Elephant and Scissors
9. Monroe and Moscow
10. Dali’s Christ and Clock (Black and white circle shape)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. German shepherd and house in tries
12. Egypt (colorful) and Charles Chaplin
13. James Randy and White cross on the black background
14. Telephone and running horse
15. Clock (in color) and Statue of liberty with blue sky
16. Dolphin and wooden cross (in color)
17. Black shoe (with red inside) and Valley with blue sky and moon
18. African elephants and black and white clock circles
19. Burning candle and Blue cattle
20. Selling ship and Egyptian pyramid with sphinx
Preparation:
By a third party in a separate room all the pictures that are used in the testing will be placed into letter sized envelopes and then place the letter sized envelopes into larger manila envelopes.
The envelopes will be checked for marks, folds, creases etc by JREF representatives before being brought into the test room.
Each envelope in the pair will then be marked-numbered 1 – 10/20 using a pencil.
The numbers should be marked slightly by pencil, so that can be visible on the envelope in order to identify the current pair by the number on it.
The marks should be made in the following order.
Photo of the Pyramids and the photo of the Apple will be placed in double envelopes and both of them marked with number ONE to make a pair of two envelopes marked with number 1.
Etc… according to agreed list of photos and pairs.
For each run there shell be prepared separate set of envelopes, in order to save time in replacing photos in the new envelopes and remarking them. So if there will be agreed 5 runs by 20 pairs, in this case 5 identical sets of 20 pairs in each have to be prepared in advance.
Test settings:
1. The photos will be placed in envelopes in separate room by a third party with the supervision of a JREF representatives who will make sure that there will be no interference in the process of preparation of the photo pairs for the test.
2. After I am situated, ready, and comfortable, I will cover my eyes with a mask and my ears with the plugs and will have 10 minutes to get ready and relax.
After that, the testing shell begin, and one random envelope from the first pair shell be handed to me.
3. I would need up to 3 minutes to hold each envelope.
The test.
Marked envelopes arranged by the pairs and with the label numbers on it matching the pair, shell be arranged and prepared to be used in test.
By the third party (a person who was not involved in the process of placing photos in the envelopes), each pair has to be shuffled to make sure that no one in the room including the person shuffling the envelopes, knows the order of the photos in pairs. Then, one photo of the pair will be chosen at random and passed to the person who will bring it to the room where the actual test will be held.
Or all single envelopes from the pairs can be drawn at one time and then carried in the testing room together in arranged order from 1 to 10/20.
The person will give me the envelope of the current pair, with no words or any other sound signs.
At that time, my eyes will be covered by the mask and earplugs will be placed in my ears and I will be sitting at the desk table. On the table, there should be nothing but the sheet with the listed pairs and the pencil*. With those conditions I will be able to remind myself what the photos are in the following pair without any sounds and announcing. For that reason the envelopes must be handed to me in strict order from 1st to the 10/20th
I will hold the envelope between my hands for a period of 1 to 3 minutes, and then will offer my guess for the photo that is in the envelope held by me. **
After I announce the answer, another third party will open the envelope in front of everyone including me*** and will reveal the photo that was inside. Then the result will be recorded as either correct or incorrect by me and by the JREF or any other party who will be in the room.
Or the Blind way.
(The person will give me the envelope of the current pair, with no words or any other sound signs that would in any way suggest or define the order number for the envelope from the pair that will be handed to me.
I will hold the envelope between my hands for a period of 1 to 3 minutes. While I’ll hold it I’ll describe a laud the visions that I’ll be seeing, will draw them if necessary. After the describing and possible drawings will be finished, I will hand the envelope back to the third party, will take the mask off and will offer my guess for the photo that is in the envelope held by me, based on the visions and signs that I shell see while I hold the envelope. After that the number of the current pair shell be showed to me and still with no words or any other signs I will look to the list of pairs and will offer my final decision on what the current photo is. **
After I announce the answer, another third party will open the envelope in front of everyone including me*** and will reveal the photo that was inside. Then the result will be recorded as either correct or incorrect by me and by the JREF or any other party who will be in the room) (I think with the blind way of testing I would be comfortable. I am training this way lately.)
In this case I am sure many times I will be able to describe the current picture exactly, before I’ll even know the number of pair and which 2 pictures there are.
The same procedure will be done with all pairs of photos in order from 1st to the 10/20th pair. And during all runs that will be agreed, until the last envelope will be identified by me and my “guess” will be announced.
I would need 5/10 minutes brake between runs with sets. As in case, if it will be set with 20 pair used than I would need 5/10 minutes brake between every 10 pairs and 10/15 minutes between run with every next set of 20 pairs. In case when 10 pairs set will be used, I would need only 10/15 minutes brake between the runs.
After all the tests-runs will be complete, the JREF representative will announce the results for the Preliminary Test as either Positive or Negative.
Remarks:
*A single paper sheet with thumbnail images of the pictures in order of the pairs also labeled from 1 to 10/20 will be on the table with me. I would need a pencil to make notes and marks.
Or the list of all the pairs in the order that was agreed before, (without thumbnail images on it, to avoid confusion and the chance that seeing pictures any extra time before “guess”, will make an imprint in my mind and will affect the answer for naming the right envelope).
Either way will be agreed in the final protocol.
With the list of pairs I will be able to remind myself what the photos are in the following pair without any sounds and annunciations. For that reason the envelopes have to be marked/handed to me in strict order from 1st to the 10/20th.
The purpose of using the mask and earplugs is to eliminate an extra distraction such as sound and light, which will help me to concentrate better. At the same time, the mask, earplugs and the list of pairs at the test, will help to eliminate chances that I am guessing which envelope by reading the vocal and body signals from the person holding the envelopes and naming it. E.g., "The two pictures are the star and the dogs" and pointing out in some way to the “right” guess.
**If I am not sure in my answer, I would like to announce it by saying “I am not sure” and that envelope shell be placed a side and I shall try to identify it after the rest of the pairs have been named by me. In the case that I am unsure of a few envelopes, all of them shall be put aside (remaining in the same room but off the table) until the end of my “work” with the rest of the pairs. After the “doubted” envelopes shall be passed to me for the final identification in the order that they were initially given to me.
*** I need to know the result of my guess immediately after I name the photo. I prefer this because, when I hold the envelope I am trying to foresee what will I actually see when the photo will be revealed. So I need to see the actual photo immediately after I offer my guess during the test.
Notes:
1. No talking (or signaling!) during the test from any person who will be present in room.
2. No text messaging or phone calls allowed, as the sms and call alerts can distract my concentration and affect the result of my answer. (The smsing during the test is not permitted either, as the sound of the constantly clicking buttons can be very irritating and distracting). For that reason, all mobile phones in the room, must be switched to a silent mode to eliminate interruptions of the testing. If anyone needs to make calls or sms, it can be done during the brake between runs
3. Any person that is present at the testing may raise his or her hand during the demonstration to inform the others of suspicious behavior of anyone in the room. However, no shouting or interruptions will be allowed during the process of identifying the photo. If there are any doubts or suspicions, the person shall raise his/her hand silently and inform the others after I have finished with identification of the current photo and announced my answer.
I would prefer:
1. I want to do the test in United States, in Charlotte, North Carolina to avoid traveling that can affect my state due to the road sickness or the climate change. Testing should be done in the presence of objective people which both as JREF and I can trust. I want to be able to approve the people that are present during the testing, e.g. it can’t be more than 10 people in the room during the test.
2. I want to bring with me a friend Vladimir Sirovitskiy who will be present at the testing as a support.
After the test will start, there will be no talking or any kind of communication between us until the test will be complete and the last photo will be identified and announced.
3. I also would like Dr. Eric D. Heggestad, and Dr. Linda Shanock, the academics that tested me to produce affidavit letters for application for the challenge, to be present during the test (if they are able to attend it) as the independent parties and witnesses –supervisors.
4. I would like the testing to take place in the afternoon, as I would need time to have rest and sleep enough hours and get ready for the test. (As due to the stress with the upcoming test I might have a problem to sleep) For example, it can start at 1 pm where I will arrive at 12 noon, an hour before.
5.Although if it is possible to have the test during the weekend days, so that everybody will be able to attend it and arrive in time, as some of the people that I would like to attend my testing, might be engaged with work at midweek days.
6. I would prefer the weather conditions to be good at the day of testing, as I am sensitive to the low atmospheric pressure and often get headaches, feel low and tired when it is cloudy and the atmospheric pressure is low.
7. I prefer to know the result of my guess immediately after I name the photo. I prefer this because, when I hold the envelope I am trying to foresee what will I actually see when the photo will be revealed. So I need to see the actual photo immediately after I offer my guess during the test.
Sincerely yours,
Pavel
-----------------------------------
I am still doing my best to find the most suitable way and optimal number of pairs, runs etc.. For now I would ask you to pay more attention to the test it self not to the numbers and runs in it.
Pavel - This is why I said we need to wait until after TAM to begin protocol negotiations - JREF staff has already identified issues with the proposed protocol, so working off the one you have here will probably not help the case further.
Firstly, you will not be permitted to use your own copies of the photographs. They will need to be Xerox copies that we create, or printouts that we create.
You will not be able to see the results of the choice as it happens, because that will eliminate future possibilities unless we re-use the sets.
You will not be able to know which photos are in which sets. For instance, you may know that the pyramid photo and the apple photo are in the same set, but you cannot know that they are in set number one.
And these are just the beginnings of the issues, so please, wait until after TAM to begin developing the protocol. It will need to be negotiated between you and the JREF staff, and though the forum can be helpful if you have any questions regarding the creation of a protocol, any developed here will have to be negotiated just as much as if we were starting from scratch.
~Remie
Firstly, you will not be permitted to use your own copies of the photographs. They will need to be Xerox copies that we create, or printouts that we create.
You will not be able to see the results of the choice as it happens, because that will eliminate future possibilities unless we re-use the sets.
You will not be able to know which photos are in which sets. For instance, you may know that the pyramid photo and the apple photo are in the same set, but you cannot know that they are in set number one.
And these are just the beginnings of the issues, so please, wait until after TAM to begin developing the protocol. It will need to be negotiated between you and the JREF staff, and though the forum can be helpful if you have any questions regarding the creation of a protocol, any developed here will have to be negotiated just as much as if we were starting from scratch.
~Remie
pavel_do
Critical Thinker
- Joined
- Aug 7, 2007
- Messages
- 363
OK
Ok I understood about that. But in the protocol more I tried to identify what will affect the result and I have listed them all… what ever will be decided in the final protocol, still I will ask for what I would prefer and I explained for each “ask” why I need that.
That is obvious I know that I will provided just a digital files to be printed, but I need a photo inside the envelope not Xerox copy. As the photo has the energy but not photo copy of it.
The set will be reused in every run that is obvious as well and I stated it in my offer. If you mean to reuse set after each photo was named.. so that does not make any sense as in any case my chances are 50/50… for each pair, even if that will be only same 1 pair all the time used.
Other wise there is no point of making any pairs, and sets.
Ok I will wait, but for each line I am ready to explain why this or that and the explanation are reasonable, same I would ask JREF explain there point and reason for one or the other step.
Regards,
Pavel
Ok I understood about that. But in the protocol more I tried to identify what will affect the result and I have listed them all… what ever will be decided in the final protocol, still I will ask for what I would prefer and I explained for each “ask” why I need that.
That is obvious I know that I will provided just a digital files to be printed, but I need a photo inside the envelope not Xerox copy. As the photo has the energy but not photo copy of it.
The set will be reused in every run that is obvious as well and I stated it in my offer. If you mean to reuse set after each photo was named.. so that does not make any sense as in any case my chances are 50/50… for each pair, even if that will be only same 1 pair all the time used.
The envelope from any pair in any order may be handed to me and I just need to know what are the 2 options, still the same chances are remaining 50/50.
Other wise there is no point of making any pairs, and sets.
Ok I will wait, but for each line I am ready to explain why this or that and the explanation are reasonable, same I would ask JREF explain there point and reason for one or the other step.
Regards,
Pavel
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Startz
Muse
Remie:
I wonder if you'd be willing to explain why JREF sees particular things as problems...as you've done already above with respect to not seeing the results as they happen. This is really just an educational request. Speaking for myself, I have a pretty good grasp of statistics, but know very little about other aspects of testing paranormal claims. I recognize this is a busy time for you, but if you do have a few extra minutes this would be a nice contribution to the Epart of jrEf.
-Dick Startz
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
Not that anyone needs this link to the thread in the challenge application sub forum but you can have it anyway http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=115239
Startz,
If Pavel knows the two options for each set of two that he is identifying (as in, if he knows that the pyrmaid and the apple are in the same set, and that the set is set number one), then the choice is binary - exactly like a coin toss - and 65% accuracy is not impressive unless it is repeated. A lot. Because the odds are excellent that I'll get at least fifty. That means that he would have to redo the entire group of 100 more than once in order to prove consistency.
We'll need to print the photos ourselves in order to ensure they are not in any way marked.
If we ran a test wherein Pavel knew that two photos would appear in the same set together, but did not know what number set it was, then it would not be possible to show the results afterward because it would eliminate them later. For instance, if Pavel knows that apple and pyramid are in the same set, but not which one it is, showing him after set 5 that he had gotten the pyramid/apple set would mean that the identity of the photos in set 100 would be obvious by elimination alone. If he needed to see results afterward, then we would have to have the potential to reuse the sets in the same group of 100, so that pyramid/apple could be both set 5 and set 88, or whatever.
All this means there are two options:
Either Pavel knows the identity of the two photographs in each set, and therefore would need to repeat the experiment many times in order to prove consistency,
OR
Pavel knows that the two photographs are together, but does not know which set they are in, thereby making it so he would need to get a much smaller number correct.
Let me put it another way...
I do a hundred coin tosses. For every single one, I say "Heads". I get 65 right. Would it really be all that surprising?
Now let's say I have two dice that each have fifty sides. They are connected in such a way that when I roll a 25 on one, I know I have rolled a 25 on the other. But every time I throw the dice, it could be 1-50. For each throw of the dice, I guess a number. If I got 10 right, it would be incredible.
It kind of depends on the reason Pavel needs to have the two photographs in the same set together. I mean, my recommendation on this protocol would be to just hand Pavel 25 photos in envelopes (photos that he had chosen in advance) and have him write down on a sheet of lined paper which photo he thought was in which envelope. That is a simple protocol, and if his ability really exists, there's no reason why that shouldn't work.
Now, as to why he wants the two photographs in the same set - is it because of the possibility that in one hundred photographs, two photographs are too similar to tell apart if you're only getting a psychic vibe? For instance, if the set of 100 contained both a photo of a dog and a photo of a cat, it is possible that a psychic might only see "domestic animal" and therefore get it wrong, I guess. So I can see the need for splitting the photos into smaller groups. An apple and a pyramid are nothing alike.
However, if we agree that the above is the reason for splitting the photos into sets of two, what is the reason that the set must be identified as THOSE two? Why must he know that set 5 contains apple and pyramid, if the purpose is only to know that the two photos in the set are not alike? Again, it greatly increases the chances of getting sets right simply by guessing.
There was a recent test of this ability that used the protocol I suggested, wherein all the photos were a single group. Try checking the Challenge Applicants section for Mike Maggio.
Those are the reasons
And I'm sure during the negotiations, we'll be discussing all of them.Hope that helps,
~Remie
Startz
Muse
Startz,
If Pavel knows the two options for each set of two that he is identifying (as in, if he knows that the pyrmaid and the apple are in the same set, and that the set is set number one), then the choice is binary - exactly like a coin toss - and 65% accuracy is not impressive unless it is repeated. A lot. Because the odds are excellent that I'll get at least fifty. That means that he would have to redo the entire group of 100 more than once in order to prove consistency.
We'll need to print the photos ourselves in order to ensure they are not in any way marked.
If we ran a test wherein Pavel knew that two photos would appear in the same set together, but did not know what number set it was, then it would not be possible to show the results afterward because it would eliminate them later. For instance, if Pavel knows that apple and pyramid are in the same set, but not which one it is, showing him after set 5 that he had gotten the pyramid/apple set would mean that the identity of the photos in set 100 would be obvious by elimination alone. If he needed to see results afterward, then we would have to have the potential to reuse the sets in the same group of 100, so that pyramid/apple could be both set 5 and set 88, or whatever.
All this means there are two options:
Either Pavel knows the identity of the two photographs in each set, and therefore would need to repeat the experiment many times in order to prove consistency,
OR
Pavel knows that the two photographs are together, but does not know which set they are in, thereby making it so he would need to get a much smaller number correct.
Let me put it another way...
I do a hundred coin tosses. For every single one, I say "Heads". I get 65 right. Would it really be all that surprising?
Now let's say I have two dice that each have fifty sides. They are connected in such a way that when I roll a 25 on one, I know I have rolled a 25 on the other. But every time I throw the dice, it could be 1-50. For each throw of the dice, I guess a number. If I got 10 right, it would be incredible.
It kind of depends on the reason Pavel needs to have the two photographs in the same set together. I mean, my recommendation on this protocol would be to just hand Pavel 25 photos in envelopes (photos that he had chosen in advance) and have him write down on a sheet of lined paper which photo he thought was in which envelope. That is a simple protocol, and if his ability really exists, there's no reason why that shouldn't work.
Now, as to why he wants the two photographs in the same set - is it because of the possibility that in one hundred photographs, two photographs are too similar to tell apart if you're only getting a psychic vibe? For instance, if the set of 100 contained both a photo of a dog and a photo of a cat, it is possible that a psychic might only see "domestic animal" and therefore get it wrong, I guess. So I can see the need for splitting the photos into smaller groups. An apple and a pyramid are nothing alike.
However, if we agree that the above is the reason for splitting the photos into sets of two, what is the reason that the set must be identified as THOSE two? Why must he know that set 5 contains apple and pyramid, if the purpose is only to know that the two photos in the set are not alike? Again, it greatly increases the chances of getting sets right simply by guessing.
There was a recent test of this ability that used the protocol I suggested, wherein all the photos were a single group. Try checking the Challenge Applicants section for Mike Maggio.
Those are the reasons
Hope that helps,
~Remie
Very clear. Thanks!
Earlier in the thread u claimed 70% accuracy now its 65% 
Going down anyone?
Pavel quote...
"That is obvious I know that I will provided just a digital files to be printed, but I need a photo inside the envelope not Xerox copy. As the photo has the energy but not photo copy of it"
Previously u said u could do this with zener cards do they have energy as well like a photo? how interesting...so cards and photos have energy but not copies...
Remie is saying you would need to get 65/100 twice and u wanted to examine each pic for 3 mins thats 20 hrs+ its gonna be a marathon effort and u got tired and messed up one run from 5 with the professors, oh dear...
Going down anyone?
Pavel quote...
"That is obvious I know that I will provided just a digital files to be printed, but I need a photo inside the envelope not Xerox copy. As the photo has the energy but not photo copy of it"
Previously u said u could do this with zener cards do they have energy as well like a photo? how interesting...so cards and photos have energy but not copies...
Remie is saying you would need to get 65/100 twice and u wanted to examine each pic for 3 mins thats 20 hrs+ its gonna be a marathon effort and u got tired and messed up one run from 5 with the professors, oh dear...
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