Anyone heard about this dude? (pavelprorok on youtube)
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pavel_do
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Do you mean 10 photos only and identify all of them?
Well the chance to get all 10 right is 1 to 3.628.800
I am not sure I can perform it with the stress conditions. Plus, cant explain myself why, sometimes I see photos in different order, still right but disordered. So that not really helpful in making all 10 right, that why 10 pair out of 10 is more reasonable in that sense. On the other hand, I would say maybe I go with 20 pairs and IF I will be allowed to make 5 runs, so in all together that would be 100 pairs. Each run of 20 pairs, will be considered as an independent from the following ones. But in the same time will give me a chance and to JREF to “put together” the results of 5 runs -100 pairs to see if it does look like worth attention or pure chance and I just was lucky let say one of the times.
I am reasonable with my abilities and not too stupid to think and claim I can always perform it 90-100%.. so let say we have a test with 20 pairs of 2 different photos, I know what pairs is.. so one of 2 photos handled to me and I have to say what it is ( in sealed envelope) just by holding it in my hands so the chance for that is 50/50 ok let say I performed 16 that beat allot of odds I guess... So let say I made 16 of 20 beaten close to 1.000 odds (more or less) do you think JREF will admit straight a way I passed the test? I doubt it. I am sure I will be asked to make lets say 2 more runs and if I cant show same results second and 3d run, let say I am tired, stressed etc.. Does it make my first result just chance? For that reason again it would be more fair for Both as ME same as JREF to make final decision up on a few runs. Said so, it is fair to say that if there would be 1 run and I failed it I would say I need 2-3 more runs, (same as JREF would say it could be a chance of lucky day) maybe first didn’t worked out cause it just didn’t, too much stress, tension or what ever I needed to “warm up”. So that would be fair. And unfair if after 1st test JREF would say…FAILED full stop… same as I would not be fair if I pass 10 out of 10 from 1st test and JREF would ask me to make 2 more trials and I would say NO I done it whether it chance or my gift I done it.. so It would be fair for both sides to make the finally decision up on the results of a few trials. I am sorry If I am a bit confusing in putting my thought to the lines, as the English is not my native language. Still I guess my point is clear.
So I will try to claim and ask for let say 3-5 runs of the trial not 1 as to have proper chance to show If I am really can perform the success rate significantly better than random chance. And I will claim that upon the 3-5 runs I would be able to perform X odds cause let say If I can get 1 time let say 17 photos right, second time 18 and lets say third only 15 or even 13-14. I guess upon all of it there would be significant of beating odds of more then a chances and if you open your mind for it you can see it. And of course if you not willing to do it at all ( I mean admit the fact that it seem like there is more then a chance) than even if I make all the times 16-17 right and not 1 time 19 or all 20 you ( as JREF or skeptics) will say FAILED there is no phenomena. And if I would say, then if it is not supernatural or unusual than DO IT, repeat it, show it yourself with the same results or better. And I know what the answer would be.. I AM NOT CLAIMING TO BE ABLE TO DO IT… =)
Any comments and suggestions about all of it?
Marcus
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You wouldn't have to get all 10 right, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe it is 7 or 8. Less if you do 2 sets(20 pictures total).
Whatever the protocol, the whole thing will be decided on in advance, and the entire test will take place before the results are tabulated. There will be no adjustment of the test based on prior results.
As you probably know. the test won't take place if you aren't comfortable, the conditions aren't right, ect.
If you ended up beating odds of, say, 500 to 1, it is true you would fail the test, but it certainily would attract some interest.
Whatever the protocol, the whole thing will be decided on in advance, and the entire test will take place before the results are tabulated. There will be no adjustment of the test based on prior results.
As you probably know. the test won't take place if you aren't comfortable, the conditions aren't right, ect.
If you ended up beating odds of, say, 500 to 1, it is true you would fail the test, but it certainily would attract some interest.
pavel_do
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Sorry to sound dumb, but when you talking about 10 envelopes, you mean 10 single envelopes or 10 pairs? as for example if it is 10 singles than to get random 4 out of 10 and guess them all correct in the right order, would be 1 to 5.040. And if we talking about 10 pairs, I am not sure how to count, but I guess I have to get all 10 or 9 to reach 1.000 odds... or 17-18 photos out of 20
Still thinking about whether it is 10 PAIRS or 20 Pairs and let say 5 runs that would make (50 or 100 pairs) or at least 3 runs for any of 10 or 20 pairs tests.
RE to the conditions, yes I know, so trying to list it all in the protocol, cause for example I would mind any strong odor in the room cause I am often getting headache from strong odors. Although it should be good weather as when it is windy and the pressure are low it although affect me with a headache or I feel very low and sleepy… etc. ( some one will smile upon it, but I am sensitive
and there is nothing I can do...)
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Hi Pavel,
are you familiar with the Carina Landin protocol? It seems basically the same - she uses diaries/letters instead.
You would only need one run of 20 photos - without prior knowledge of how many of each is used - and need to get 16 or more correct.
Please inquire at [email protected] for official confirmation.
are you familiar with the Carina Landin protocol? It seems basically the same - she uses diaries/letters instead.
You would only need one run of 20 photos - without prior knowledge of how many of each is used - and need to get 16 or more correct.
Please inquire at [email protected] for official confirmation.
pavel_do
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Hello, GzuzKryzt sorry still don’t know your name. .
yes I read it all, and at the moment composing my protocol based on the Lindle and some others that I had read and with the suggestions they I got.
I will post it probably Monday. will be glad to hear your opinion and suggestions.
another thing I know JREF demand 1.000 odds to be beaten.. but I still can state the minimum that I think I can perform. I think I will state that I can be right with 70% and more.. 70% still more than just a random chance.
Here is my Claim, if you can tell me what do you think about it...
"I am Pavel, psychic clairvoyant. As a part of my gift, I have the ability to identify photographs that are sealed in double envelopes without seeing them first, just by holding the envelope between my hands and concentrating for a few minutes. I would prefer to use sets of photos that are completely different from each other, for example, a horse, the statue of liberty, ship, mask etc. The photos will be known to me and the set that is used for testing will be made of the same pictures that I usually practice with , and will be provided to the JREF beforehand together with the name for each photo. However, no one can speak while I perform and there should be no distraction of any kind. For that reason, I prefer that my eyes are covered with a mask, and I will use earplugs, to eliminate light and sound distractions. It is important that in the room where the test will be held, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me. I will need a small break between the runs if there will be a few runs of the testing. I need to come 1 hour before the test, to the place where it will be handled (as I need to get used to place and the people around to be calmer and make sure that I will be comfortable in my place during the test). Such an ability I can perform with the accuracy of a minimum 70% and a success rate significantly better than random chance. ”
If you read my post 282 where I am saying about more then 1 run.. Let say 20 pairs I claime to be right with minnimum 14 that is 70% and still would be more cofortable if I woudl have let say 3 runs but not just 1 and things happne even great players cant always show best result form 1 try..If you read my post 282 where I am saying about more then 1 run.. Let say 20 pairs I claim to be right with minimum 14 that is 70% and still would be more comfortable if I would have let say 3 runs but not just 1 and things happen even great players cant always show best result form 1 try..
Though I didn’t find any other example where person asked and had more than 1 try ( run) so I hope that would be possible.. because as I already said in the post 282
If I have only 1 run that add much more pressure because maybe first didn’t worked out cause it just didn’t, too much stress, tension or what ever I needed to “warm up”. So that would be fair to have let say 3 runs. And unfair if after 1st and the only ine run test JREF would say…FAILED full stop…
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Hello, everyone. I am not positive what I'm doing in this thread 
Just so everyone is aware, with the pressure of TAM rising, less focus will be given to the MDC until after June. We're still processing apps, and communicating with claimants, just slightly more slowly.
If at any time you need a JREF representative to weigh in, please PM if the issue is not getting attention. But please do not PM about everything
I can not verify Pavel's academic affidavits as he has not yet sent in his Challenge Application and associated materials.
~Remie
Just so everyone is aware, with the pressure of TAM rising, less focus will be given to the MDC until after June. We're still processing apps, and communicating with claimants, just slightly more slowly.If at any time you need a JREF representative to weigh in, please PM if the issue is not getting attention. But please do not PM about everything
I can not verify Pavel's academic affidavits as he has not yet sent in his Challenge Application and associated materials.
~Remie
pavel_do
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Ok that is the claim that will be sent on Monday to the JREF.
"I am Pavel, psychic clairvoyant. As a part of my gift, I have the ability to identify photographs that are sealed in double envelopes without seeing them first, just by holding the envelope between my hands and concentrating for a few minutes. I would prefer to use sets of photos that are completely different from each other, for example, a horse, the statue of liberty, ship, mask etc. The photos will be known to me and the set that is used for testing will be made of the same pictures that I usually practice with , and will be provided to the JREF beforehand together with the name for each photo. However, no one can speak while I perform and there should be no distraction of any kind. For that reason, I prefer that my eyes are covered with a mask, and I will use earplugs, to eliminate light and sound distractions. It is important that in the room where the test will be held, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me. I will need a small break between the runs if there will be a few runs of the testing. I need to come 1 hour before the test, to the place where it will be handled (as I need to get used to place and the people around to be calmer and make sure that I will be comfortable in my place during the test). Such an ability I can perform with the accuracy of a minimum 70% and a success rate significantly better than random chance. ”
Any final suggestions about it? or grammar correction…
"I am Pavel, psychic clairvoyant. As a part of my gift, I have the ability to identify photographs that are sealed in double envelopes without seeing them first, just by holding the envelope between my hands and concentrating for a few minutes. I would prefer to use sets of photos that are completely different from each other, for example, a horse, the statue of liberty, ship, mask etc. The photos will be known to me and the set that is used for testing will be made of the same pictures that I usually practice with , and will be provided to the JREF beforehand together with the name for each photo. However, no one can speak while I perform and there should be no distraction of any kind. For that reason, I prefer that my eyes are covered with a mask, and I will use earplugs, to eliminate light and sound distractions. It is important that in the room where the test will be held, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me. I will need a small break between the runs if there will be a few runs of the testing. I need to come 1 hour before the test, to the place where it will be handled (as I need to get used to place and the people around to be calmer and make sure that I will be comfortable in my place during the test). Such an ability I can perform with the accuracy of a minimum 70% and a success rate significantly better than random chance. ”
Any final suggestions about it? or grammar correction…
Marcus
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10 envelopes, 1 for each photo, no pairs involved. But perhaps as GzuzKryzt says a single run of 20 would be better. One by one, you would identify the photo contained in each of 20 envelopes. Then the envelopes are opened. If 16 answers are correct, then you have passed. If the odds seem long, that is the point. You are not supposed to be guessing, you are supposed to be detecting the contents of the envelopes. If you must have pairs in your protocol, make it as simple as possible, and only submit to JREF one which meets 1000 to 1 odds and takes a day or less.Sorry to sound dumb, but when you talking about 10 envelopes, you mean 10 single envelopes or 10 pairs? as for example if it is 10 singles than to get random 4 out of 10 and guess them all correct in the right order, would be 1 to 5.040. And if we talking about 10 pairs, I am not sure how to count, but I guess I have to get all 10 or 9 to reach 1.000 odds... or 17-18 photos out of 20
Still thinking about whether it is 10 PAIRS or 20 Pairs and let say 5 runs that would make (50 or 100 pairs) or at least 3 runs for any of 10 or 20 pairs tests.
RE to the conditions, yes I know, so trying to list it all in the protocol, cause for example I would mind any strong odor in the room cause I am often getting headache from strong odors. Although it should be good weather as when it is windy and the pressure are low it although affect me with a headache or I feel very low and sleepy… etc. ( some one will smile upon it, but I am sensitive
Be sure to include all the necessary materials when you apply. Notarized application, signed academic referels, whatever else it says to send.
"If you read my post 282 where I am saying about more then 1 run.. Let say 20 pairs I claime to be right with minnimum 14 that is 70% and still would be more cofortable if I woudl have let say 3 runs but not just 1 and things happne even great players cant always show best result form 1 try..If you read my post 282 where I am saying about more then 1 run.. Let say 20 pairs I claim to be right with minimum 14 that is 70% and still would be more comfortable if I would have let say 3 runs but not just 1 and things happen even great players cant always show best result form 1 try.."
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So by chance you would get 10 on average but u can get 14 out of 20 but only if u have 3 tries at it??!!! I might try for the million myself sounds easy.
If you want to claim u can get 70% as a minimum u would need to do many trials to prove it , problem is any that fall below 70% u want to disregard as not warmed up or stressed etc..
good luck with trying to weaken the protocol further and further until u can do it..
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So by chance you would get 10 on average but u can get 14 out of 20 but only if u have 3 tries at it??!!! I might try for the million myself sounds easy.
If you want to claim u can get 70% as a minimum u would need to do many trials to prove it , problem is any that fall below 70% u want to disregard as not warmed up or stressed etc..
good luck with trying to weaken the protocol further and further until u can do it..
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pavel_do
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"If you read my post 282 where I am saying about more then 1 run.. Let say 20 pairs I claime to be right with minnimum 14 that is 70% and still would be more cofortable if I woudl have let say 3 runs but not just 1 and things happne even great players cant always show best result form 1 try..If you read my post 282 where I am saying about more then 1 run.. Let say 20 pairs I claim to be right with minimum 14 that is 70% and still would be more comfortable if I would have let say 3 runs but not just 1 and things happen even great players cant always show best result form 1 try.."
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So by chance you would get 10 on average but u can get 14 out of 20 but only if u have 3 tries at it??!!! I might try for the million myself sounds easy.
If you want to claim u can get 70% as a minimum u would need to do many trials to prove it , problem is any that fall below 70% u want to disregard as not warmed up or stressed etc..
good luck with trying to weaken the protocol further and further until u can do it..
GO A HEAD
apply and win I will be happy for you Sounds easy? try to make it..Correct me if I am wrong… But JREF do not mind with the proposition of the easiest way you can show it.. no need to complicate it… You think that easy to get 14..?? try a few runs at home
The reason why I would go for 3 trial.. (would like to) as simple as that,
I am reasonable with estimating of my abilities and not so self-centered to think and claim I can always perform it 90-100%. As I do realize that it is one thing to show it at home and among your friends and another thing to show it to strangers with conditions and the restrictions that cause stress and tension and that it is not the best thing that helps to be calm and to perform such skills as clairvoyance.
I strongly believe that to achieve positive result in testing I would need minimum 3 runs to be performed. As that would help me to be more confident and would reduce, some of the stress that is occurs with all the condition plus knowing that if I done 1 mistake I am automatically announced FAILD that increase pressure significantly. If I am fake and not real, If I am fake and not real, it does not make any differents the number of runs 1 or 3 or 5, I am not asking for a 100 or 1000 runs hoping that out of 100 or 1000 I will get 14-17 or even 20 right..
As in my opinion, if there will be only 1 run and I fail it, that would be unfair from JREF to announce test as failed and my ability not real.
Same as I suppose if I would show good results at first run, the JREF part would have all the right to say that it could be just my “lucky day” a chance that is always there… so it would be fair to see my score in 2-3 more trials before final decision will be announced.
I would say I need 3 runs, as first run might simply be failed due to the number of reasons, like it just didn’t started right, too much stress, tension or what ever I needed to “warm up”.
Cause
As I said before, if I shoe let say out of 3 runs the results 15/16 and 14 or even 12 it will be significant that it seem like more then a stupid luck, if the result would be less or jus the average same it can be concluded that 1 run was just lucky… That as with the professors that tested me, we made 5 runs 3 time I made 7 one time 8 and one time 4.
If you open your mind, you can see that the result is more that just 50/50 chance…even though one time I was right only with 4 out of 10. Imagine I have only 1 run, that would automatically dismissed me and blamed in being fake, though I am real! Million dollars it is not a joke, we people at first place and intend to get worried and stressed, a specially people who more sensitive then average. Even if you don’t believe in it you cant deny it, as if you stressed out even memorizing small text would be a problem when 10 people look at you with all the conditions and let say not really friendly in a sense to see you with a good result, comparing to, when u do it at home and when u calm. What the problem to make person less stressed, if you don’t believe he is real, let him fail but give him proper chance…
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Crundy
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Pavel, despite what you might think I did have the upmost confidence in you initially. Unfortunately you have weakened your argument by reducing your abilities to a 50/50 guessing game. If you are psychic and can see the image inside an envelope then why does it need to be between 2 envelopes at a time? Why can you not hold up an envelope and say "This is picture number 4"?
Please don't reply with answers about 'interference' and 'warming up', because these are classic get-out clauses for frauds. If you are genuine then please test yourself using 10 or 20 photos and guessing each one in turn (only opening to check answers after you have given an answer for each of them). If you cannot do this then I'm afraid you are not psychic, and coming to terms with this can only be a good thing.
Please don't reply with answers about 'interference' and 'warming up', because these are classic get-out clauses for frauds. If you are genuine then please test yourself using 10 or 20 photos and guessing each one in turn (only opening to check answers after you have given an answer for each of them). If you cannot do this then I'm afraid you are not psychic, and coming to terms with this can only be a good thing.
Hi Pavel.
I would feel much more comfortable investing my time in this discussion if the JREF had received and accepted your application.
Your protocol proposal still needs much tweaking - specific numbers, specific setting, etc. - but given my experience with the JREF's needs for clarity, your current proposal would be accepted as reasonably precise and suitable to be worked out.
Startz
Muse
Ok that is the claim that will be sent on Monday to the JREF.
"I am Pavel, psychic clairvoyant. As a part of my gift, I have the ability to identify photographs that are sealed in double envelopes without seeing them first, just by holding the envelope between my hands and concentrating for a few minutes. I would prefer to use sets of photos that are completely different from each other, for example, a horse, the statue of liberty, ship, mask etc. The photos will be known to me and the set that is used for testing will be made of the same pictures that I usually practice with , and will be provided to the JREF beforehand together with the name for each photo. However, no one can speak while I perform and there should be no distraction of any kind. For that reason, I prefer that my eyes are covered with a mask, and I will use earplugs, to eliminate light and sound distractions. It is important that in the room where the test will be held, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me. I will need a small break between the runs if there will be a few runs of the testing. I need to come 1 hour before the test, to the place where it will be handled (as I need to get used to place and the people around to be calmer and make sure that I will be comfortable in my place during the test). Such an ability I can perform with the accuracy of a minimum 70% and a success rate significantly better than random chance. ”
Any final suggestions about it? or grammar correction…
You need to be clear about how many photos are in a set and whether a new set is being used for each try. If mean you will choose the correct photo out of ten possibilities, and that when doing this 20 times with a fresh set of envelopes each time, then getting 14 or more out of 20 would be very impressive.
If you mean choosing from a set of two envelopes and getting 14 or more right in 20 trials, this would be better than chance but not incredibly surprising and is unlikely to qualify.
There is nothing wrong with specifying in advance that you want to be allowed three tries to succeed, but it does affect the chances of success.
-Dick Startz
pavel_do
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pavel_do
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I wanted to clarify all this things whether I can or cant state such as number of trials and whether it can be claimed minimum% as I cant say exact number for the photos now, as I don’t know to what we will agree in final protocol, to how many pairs and how many trials?
But I was refused any communication until my claim arrived.. I see no problem in reading my email and answering it, to avoid it to be refused and resent by me due to some things that I should have or should not have include in my claim…
Here is the answer:
"No, Pavel. I will not read and reply to it. As previously stated, the application and associated materials must be received before I will look over any protocol information. No matter what you include with the Challenge Application, it will not be your full protocol. That is negotiated over time.
Please submit the application via postal mail, and do not send any more queries via e-mail or PM.
Thank you."
and all i asked is this... Dear Alison,
Thank you very much for the reply,
Here is the text that I will attach to my application maybe it will be edited slightly but mainly will be the same. Please review it as to avoid the application to be returned to be due to some insignificant mistakes or disagreements from the side of JREF. As to the accuracy, I understand what you were saying, the only thing as the number of the successful photos for me will depend on the finale agreed protocol. As it still can be set of 20 photos where 5 pulled out and I would say I will be right with 3 minimum or let say set of 20 pars where I would have to identify just one photo from each pair, that makes numbers different. Can I state in my claim the ODDS or a % instead of definite number? As JREF demand 1 to 1000 odds to be bitten irrelevantly from the way, it performed. So I would like to claim ODDS as well. In my opinion it will be a success if I will beat say 150 odds as it is it self way more to the chance, taking to the considerations that it will be not 100 runs and just a few like in case with 20 pairs set I would prefer 3-5 runs by 20 sets. Or with 20 photos where 5 will be taken I would prefer have 3 runs only. Will it be fine for the claim as the accuracy to state 70% minimum from my side?
If so, then the following text ( still might be slightly edited) will be attached to the application form together with media coverage (photo copy of the news papers with the articles about me) and the letter signed by 2 professors who tested me and witnessed the results.
"I am Pavel, psychic clairvoyant. As a part of my gift, I have the ability to identify photographs that are sealed in double envelopes without seeing them first, just by holding the envelope between my hands and concentrating for a few minutes. I would prefer to use sets of photos that are completely different from each other, for example, a horse, the statue of liberty, ship, mask etc. The photos will be known to me and the set that is used for testing will be made of the same pictures that I usually practice with , and will be provided to the JREF beforehand together with the name for each photo. However, no one can speak while I perform and there should be no distraction of any kind. For that reason, I prefer that my eyes are covered with a mask, and I will use earplugs, to eliminate light and sound distractions. It is important that in the room where the test will be held, there should be NO photos or pictures of any kind on the walls or anywhere near me. I will need a small break between the runs if there will be a few runs of the testing. I need to come 1 hour before the test, to the place where it will be handled (as I need to get used to place and the people around to be calmer and make sure that I will be comfortable in my place during the test). Such an ability I can perform with the accuracy of a minimum 70% with the success rate significantly better than random chance. ”
Reagards,
Pavel
pavel_do
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The reason to go with the pairs is as simple as that I am trying to make it as easy for me as it is possible! If any one can do the same and it is not qualify and a above chances and paranormal or what ever…then show it… ( still the pairs test is not the final I still don’t know which one we will agree with JERF, as we have different oppinoons about what is the success.
As for example they want 1.000 odds to be beaten on Preliminary test.. I think it is too much for the test that is only first..
Any ways.. then in case with 100 pairs and 50/50 chance.. to beat 1.000 odds to 1 I need to be right in 65 photos out of 100 pairs. I woul be glad to be tested this way.
Some one say.. that easy.. then DO IT, try it yourself…
Because if that would be the way that let say, for 1 or 3 day I will be tested in all ways with 10-20-50 pairs and 20 where I have to name 2-3 what ever and then according the results the decision would be made than I would not care how many pairs or exact cause I am sure I will show that I am real thing..
In case with challenge.. I don’t have real chance to show it.. cause if it is only 1 run will be allowed and I have to guess 5 out of 20 and I done let say 3 and that mean I lost.. ? get all the time from my self and the other people including the JREF to have 20 min test and be named real or unreal?? Not finding it the best option, so I am trying to find the best way that would make both sides comfortable and the environment should be established to give me the best chance of success and JREF the assurance that my abilities are real.
I have designed my proposition with the a few ways of testing me with different number of runs and pair. I will gladly post it, as soon as I hear something from JREF about my claim. As I said before I sent all papers needed to submit claim, and it was delivered by now.
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Startz
Muse
Pavel:
Since it's your application, you should tell us how many photos will be in each set and how many you will correctly identify from that set, and how many trials you will do, and what percent of the trials you will succeed at. The chance of succeeding randomly can then be calculated. While the final values for these details are subject to agreement between you and JREF, you might as well start with something you feel comfortable with and where JREF is likely to find the odds acceptable. If you give us a specific number several people here can be helpful by calculating the odds for you.
Pavel, please remember to keep it simple. I suggest again to remember the Carina Landin protocol.
When did you send your application?
pavel_do
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I sent it yesterday by express it was delivered today by noon.
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