How do we know a pandemic's over?

[lobosrul5]

I don't know. Some things seem to be pretty similar. Denmark declared that Covid-19 was no longer a crisis, i.e. "a threat to society," and removed mask mandates and all other restrictions on Feb 1, 2022. At that point, Denmark had had 3,770 Covid-19 deaths - in a relatively well-vaccinated population. Now, Sep 22, we have 7,021. So by the end of this year, we will have had as many Covid-19 deaths since February as we had since the beginning of the pandemic until it stopped being a "threat to society" on Feb 1. And people in general and in particular old people seem to think that 'not a threat to society' means not a threat to their own health and lives. It doesn't.

So deaths since removing mandates in Denmark are almost half of your total. Our governor removed mask mandates on February 17th of this year. Before that day we had 6,751 COVID deaths. Since then we've had 1,654 deaths. Thats a starkly different ratio than Denmarks.

However, some counties have gone back to mask mandates a few times since then, there's metrics the state DoH looks at to decide. Like I said we have MAGA territory areas with low vacc rates, while the state at large is pretty "blue".

Also, someone was quoting Dr Watcher who said he wouldn't go unmasked until test positivity rates were under 5 per 100k. Our test rates in my country are right around 7 per 100k so we're getting close.

 

[bignickel]

The 1.5% was a myth at every stage of the pandemic, and as noted, the current death rate is very low.

There have been 100M notified cases in the past 4.5 months. During that same period, 240,000 people have died. That's a whopping 0.2% fatality rate, and note that number is considerably inflated by there being a lot more people sick in May than September, and the case rate hugely understated due to people not self-reporting.

So yes, the rate is well below 1.5%.

What is your evidence that the 1-2% fatality rate since 2020 was a myth. I'm not saying 'no way, you're wrong'; I really want to know where you're getting that from.

As for the fatality rate being currently at .2%, I would love for that to be the case. Please point me to a page where they break that down; I don't know where you're currently located. I didn't want to auto-assume that you were in the USA.

The current 7-day average is 286 a day, just over half what it was at the start of that 28-day period.

That would be great if that continued, but we're about to hit 3 months of festivities. Based on what happened in 2020 and 2021, would we expect those numbers to sharply go up in a month or so?

By a neat turn of statistics, the covid death rate will be less than 10% of the cardiovascular death rate in America within the next few days.

I wonder if we gave things like that the panicked response some people think we should be taking towards covid we might actually save a lot more lives than a disease which is now an endemic disease that we need to learn to live with.

When cardiovascular disease starts being spread by airborne contact, I will take a much sharper notice and interest in those numbers.

 

[Rolfe]

He's in New Zealand.

 

[The Atheist]

What is your evidence that the 1-2% fatality rate since 2020 was a myth. I'm not saying 'no way, you're wrong'; I really want to know where you're getting that from.

Every statistic since the pandemic began.

Have a look at the cumulative case & death totals here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The fatality rate shows at a neat 1%, but the official numbers of cases have always been massively under-reported.

This was all covered in the Covid thread in the science section. Early estimates of there being 5-10 times more cases than were notified has held all the way through. This is so well known that links aren't even easy to find now, but this, from 2021 tells you: https://www.npr.org/sections/health...the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think

Deaths have also been under-reported - India's have been a bad joke since the very start - and WHO estimates the stated total is only 40% of the real total. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...-covid-19-death-toll-by-millions-the-who-says

If we err on the low side of cases and say the total should be 3 billion, and deaths 15 million, then we have a tidy 0.5% actual fatality rate.

As for the fatality rate being currently at .2%, I would love for that to be the case. Please point me to a page where they break that down; I don't know where you're currently located. I didn't want to auto-assume that you were in the USA.

I used the official numbers to arrive at that, but it's actually a very high estimate, with reality being that covid is under 0.1% fatal right now.

Again, it's simple maths. Vaccination has lowered the death rate, we now have antivirals that didn't exist early on, and there are less-deadly strains circulating.

USA is showing a fully vaccinated death rate of 0.68%. Again, we know for sure that since vaccinations reached high coverage, case numbers have been under-reported even more than before, because so many people don't even have symptoms, or don't bother self-reporting. I'm very confident that reported numbers are less than 10% of the actual number, and that for vaccinated people, the chances of dying are indeed less than 0.1%.

That would be great if that continued, but we're about to hit 3 months of festivities. Based on what happened in 2020 and 2021, would we expect those numbers to sharply go up in a month or so?

Most likely, but influenza will be in the mix as well.

New Zealand and Australia are a good case study of how it goes, with totally open statistics, and it was notable all through winter that the overwhelming majority of people dying of covid already had their toe tags printed. Hospices and care homes took the burden of deaths. People who otherwise got very sick with covid went to hospital and came out again in almost all cases.

And just a word of caution - despite what some may claim, I'm not trying to minimise anything. Two and a half years of posting factually in the covid thread covers where I've been, and if you fancy going back to the very first thread you'll see me laying into people who downplayed the disease in Feb/March 2020.

My position now is that we can't continue panicking over a disease that is no more deadly than influenza. People can still wear masks - heck I wear one myself in some situations and was very grateful last Thursday when an obscure shop I went in had a cashier who was clearly sick and coughing.

But the pandemic, as we've known it, is buried. Get your bivalent vaccination, keep up to date with them and boosters as they become available, get your 'flu vaccine and carry on.

 

[bignickel]

You've indicated that the vaccinated fatality rate in the USA is .68%. Do you know what the unvaccinated rate is? (this isn't any kind of statement or gotcha. I actually would like to know what you think it is, and where that number comes from)

EDIT: Shoulda clicked your link. It's 7.73% for the unvaxxed. Dang, that's much higher than I'd expected. It also doesn't make sense... I thought it was always 1-2% for everyone, but it's actually much worse for the unvaxxed.

 

[The Atheist]

EDIT: Shoulda clicked your link. It's 7.73% for the unvaxxed. Dang, that's much higher than I'd expected. It also doesn't make sense... I thought it was always 1-2% for everyone, but it's actually much worse for the unvaxxed.

You need to allow for the ridiculously high rate of unreported cases. I'd say this year the unreported cases are more than ten times the official numbers, so the unvaxed death rate is like to be closer to 0.5% than 7%.

 

[marting]

You've indicated that the vaccinated fatality rate in the USA is .68%. Do you know what the unvaccinated rate is? (this isn't any kind of statement or gotcha. I actually would like to know what you think it is, and where that number comes from)

EDIT: Shoulda clicked your link. It's 7.73% for the unvaxxed. Dang, that's much higher than I'd expected. It also doesn't make sense... I thought it was always 1-2% for everyone, but it's actually much worse for the unvaxxed.

That chart does not show IFR. Rather it's the death rate in terms of people per 100,000 in each group (vaxxed, unvaxxed, ...). 7.73 is not a percentage. It means that 7.73 people in a group of 100,000 unvaxxed, died in the week shown on the X axis.

To estimate IFR you would need estimates of how many in that group were infected (not diagnosed or it would be CFR) 2 to 5 weeks earlier.

CFR numbers in the USA have been running about .5%. Almost no positive rapid flow tests are even counted in the US. Since Feb., estimates are that infections are 10X the reported cases which would put overall IFR down around .05%. Unvaxxed probably around .15%.

The reasons IFR is so low is that most people in the US have already been infected and a large majority of those most at risk are also vaccinated.

 

[bignickel]

So would you say that .15% fatality rate for unvaxxed people would because of a combination of better treatment, combined with so many people already either vaccinated, or previously infected by Covid? Any other factor lowering it down to .15%

 

[marting]

So would you say that .15% fatality rate for unvaxxed people would because of a combination of better treatment, combined with so many people already either vaccinated, or previously infected by Covid? Any other factor lowering it down to .15%

1. Most of the unvaxxed have already had covid. For that matter most of the vaxxed has probably had Covid too. IHME's estimate is that 95% (not sure I believe it's actually that high but it is high) of Americans have been infected at least once. That provides protection against severe disease roughly similar to vaccination. But neither vax nor prior infection are good at preventing infection since Omicron and marginal with Delta.

2. Omicron is generally considered 25% to 50% less virulent.

3. Treatment has improved (Paxlovid and mon-clonals) but indications are it's not reaching that many in the US so not a big factor.

Thus IFR for the unvaxxed has dropped about 5x

 

[The Atheist]

That chart does not show IFR. Rather it's the death rate in terms of people per 100,000 in each group (vaxxed, unvaxxed, ...). 7.73 is not a percentage. It means that 7.73 people in a group of 100,000 unvaxxed, died in the week shown on the X axis.

You're a top bloke - I never even looked!

To estimate IFR you would need estimates of how many in that group were infected (not diagnosed or it would be CFR) 2 to 5 weeks earlier.

CFR numbers in the USA have been running about .5%.

...reality being that covid is under 0.1% fatal right now.

Nice to see us still on the same wavelength there, too.

 

[Chanakya]

The pandemic's over in Canada, apparently: https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2077207619813

 

[Chanakya]

At this point, as we're apparently at the cusp of moving over from pandemic to no-longer-pandemic, depending on which geography you're at, I think it's important to remember one obvious but very important distinction:

When the pandemic was raging all around, and some crazies refused to wear masks and comply with other restrictions, then these were ******** that were endangering not just their own worthless lives, but that of others as well, and were therefore a public menace, an enabler of disease and death. Today, in those places where the pandemic's gone --- or almost gone --- and masking et cetera may not be strictly necessary, those oddballs that insist on continuing to mask are at worst eccentrics, at worst germaphobes. They're most certainly not hurting anyone else. Arguably, and even without Covid in the equation at all, they're contributing towards better health, theirs as well others', by keeping at bay other infectious diseases that spread via breath.

What I'm getting at is this obvious distinction: Those that were contrarians during the pandemic were lowlives, ********, a danger to society, a public menace, a threat to health and life, criminals, people who should have been ashamed of themselves, people whose friends and family should have been ashamed of them. While today, contrarians who insist on masking et cetera even when the consensus seems to be moving away from the necessity of doing this, and regardless of whether they're doing this temporarily and deliberately as a better-safe-than-sorry measure, or even because they've become germaphobic, but either way there're at worst entirely harmless eccentrics.



But yes, I guess the pandemic is indeed coming to an end now. There are differences, basis local conditions, obviously. But by and large, I have to say this ---- even as I myself continue, for the time being, to wear masks, and try to maintain the distancing thing as much as possible, and continue to avoid crowds and even smaller gatherings unless absolutely necessary ---- it does seem to me that the world's starting to get back to normal again. Not just pretend-normal, but actual normal.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

Has this been repeated yet:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/u-s-needs-get-daily-cases-down-10-000-fall-n1235644

That was the goal for "return to normal". We (US) never got there. We're potentially still on track for Covid being the #3 killer again this year.

 

[lobosrul5]

At this point, as we're apparently at the cusp of moving over from pandemic to no-longer-pandemic, depending on which geography you're at, I think it's important to remember one obvious but very important distinction:

When the pandemic was raging all around, and some crazies refused to wear masks and comply with other restrictions, then these were ******** that were endangering not just their own worthless lives, but that of others as well, and were therefore a public menace, an enabler of disease and death. Today, in those places where the pandemic's gone --- or almost gone --- and masking et cetera may not be strictly necessary, those oddballs that insist on continuing to mask are at worst eccentrics, at worst germaphobes. They're most certainly not hurting anyone else. Arguably, and even without Covid in the equation at all, they're contributing towards better health, theirs as well others', by keeping at bay other infectious diseases that spread via breath.

What I'm getting at is this obvious distinction: Those that were contrarians during the pandemic were lowlives, ********, a danger to society, a public menace, a threat to health and life, criminals, people who should have been ashamed of themselves, people whose friends and family should have been ashamed of them. While today, contrarians who insist on masking et cetera even when the consensus seems to be moving away from the necessity of doing this, and regardless of whether they're doing this temporarily and deliberately as a better-safe-than-sorry measure, or even because they've become germaphobic, but either way there're at worst entirely harmless eccentrics.



But yes, I guess the pandemic is indeed coming to an end now. There are differences, basis local conditions, obviously. But by and large, I have to say this ---- even as I myself continue, for the time being, to wear masks, and try to maintain the distancing thing as much as possible, and continue to avoid crowds and even smaller gatherings unless absolutely necessary ---- it does seem to me that the world's starting to get back to normal again. Not just pretend-normal, but actual normal.

And anyone giving them grief for it needs to get a life and mind their own business. I occasionally saw people with masks before COVID. Are they eccentric or are they immunocompromised? None of my business.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

We're potentially still on track for Covid being the #3 killer again this year.

I understated. Pretty definitely there already.

 

[marting]

Has this been repeated yet:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/u-s-needs-get-daily-cases-down-10-000-fall-n1235644

That was the goal for "return to normal". We (US) never got there. We're potentially still on track for Covid being the #3 killer again this year.

I don't understand the need for binarys. Why does the definition of pandemic matter? It's pretty clearly entered an endemic phase where vaccines and/or prior infections do little to reduce new infections even while reducing severe disease.

We are at a point where Covid-19's IFR is similar to, or even less than influenza. But we are also going to see considerably more deaths from Covid-19 than influenza. This may seem contradictory, but it's because Covid-19 is far more infectious than influenza. And that is what's kicking up the covid-19 deaths which will almost certainly be much higher than a bad flu season.

That said, flu has long been endemic with 10% to 15% getting flu each season. But covid-19's variants have evolved rapidly and we could well have over 50% of the US infected in 2022. So even if Covid-19 had a bit lower IFR than flu, it will still produce way more deaths than flu.

However, flu is likely to contribute more than it's usual share this winter since flu immunity has dropped from 2 years of very low flu infections due to covid-19 NPIs. I think Covid-19 deaths will exceed flu this winter and that flu will still be a larger factor than usual.

 

[novaphile]

I had no clue you could have cloth masks that can hold N95 filters. Are you sure those filters stay effective even after washing? If they do, then agreed, those cloth masks would then be no less effective than the regular N95s, and what's more they'd then look like a better proposition (in terms of both the ecological impact, as well as the cost). Add to that the comfort factor that both you and TM speak of --- and that I've no opinion on, never having used them --- and absolutely, cloth masks would then come out as decisively better than the disposables.

eta: And add on top of all of that the eshetics of it, because I'm sure cloth masks can be made out to look better than these disposables.

Hiya, the filters aren't washable. The filters are removed and thrown out.
(They're quite cheap too, similar in price to the disposable N95s)

The cloth masks are washable.

I haven't tried wearing an N95 mask under the cloth mask, I'll give that a go and see how it goes.

 

[The Atheist]

We're potentially still on track for Covid being the #3 killer again this year.

Based on what?

USA is showing 72,000 deaths over the past six months. I see no reason the rate will double in the next six months, and with better vaccines and still-working treatments, it shouldn't be any higher than the past 6 months, which would put it just outside the top 5.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

USA is showing 72,000 deaths over the past six months.

We're nine months in to the year and I'm not even sure your six month number is right. We're past 225,000 deaths this year in the US.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/225000-americans-died-covid-19-start-2022-viral/story?id=90339579

Note that I clarified in a later post that Covid is already in the number three position, not just potentially as I said in the earlier post of mine.

 

[Chanakya]

What it means is it has gone from pandemic to endemic, of course there are people getting sick and dying from it, but not in the huge waves like when it was a pandemic. COVID is certainly not going to go away any time soon.

I don't understand the need for binarys. Why does the definition of pandemic matter? It's pretty clearly entered an endemic phase where vaccines and/or prior infections do little to reduce new infections even while reducing severe disease.
We are at a point where Covid-19's IFR is similar to, or even less than influenza. But we are also going to see considerably more deaths from Covid-19 than influenza. This may seem contradictory, but it's because Covid-19 is far more infectious than influenza. And that is what's kicking up the covid-19 deaths which will almost certainly be much higher than a bad flu season.

That said, flu has long been endemic with 10% to 15% getting flu each season. But covid-19's variants have evolved rapidly and we could well have over 50% of the US infected in 2022. So even if Covid-19 had a bit lower IFR than flu, it will still produce way more deaths than flu.

However, flu is likely to contribute more than it's usual share this winter since flu immunity has dropped from 2 years of very low flu infections due to covid-19 NPIs. I think Covid-19 deaths will exceed flu this winter and that flu will still be a larger factor than usual.

Agreed, absolutely, it's not quite a black-and-white binary, with full-on protection measures called for when the pandemic switch is marked 'on', and one lets it all hang out when the switch gets marked "off"!

Still, I suppose the pandemic designation keeps it all simple. That is, you know that masking, distancing, all of that, is necessary for most everybody (bar maybe some small island country somewhere in the middle of nowhere that maybe for now happens to be safe). There's no two ways about it.

When there's no pandemic, local conditions may still necessitate those restrictions. Or one's own particular situation might make those restrictions necessary --- because one is especially vulnerable, and/or because one is infected. But the blanket no-fine-nuance everyone-needs-to-be-on-full-alert situation, that whole emergency thing, that ...I guess that classification matters, that no-nuance in-your-face emergency red-alert, to get everyone (bar of course the inveterately and pathologically stupid/ignorant/anti-social/suicidal-murderous/crazy) fully on board with all of these measures.



So yeah, agreed, depending on local conditions, depending on one's individual situation, depending on all of that, it isn't as if no-pandemic translates into letting it all hang out now. (Although unfortunately that's exactly what seems to be actually happening, by and large, at this point. Let's just hope this doesn't come back and bite us!)

 

[lobosrul5]

We're nine months in to the year and I'm not even sure your six month number is right. We're past 225,000 deaths this year in the US.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/225000-americans-died-covid-19-start-2022-viral/story?id=90339579

Note that I clarified in a later post that Covid is already in the number three position, not just potentially as I said in the earlier post of mine.

We're currently seeing 350 deaths a day. Which at that rate would be 127000 dead a year. Below the following:

Heart disease: 696,962
Cancer: 602,350
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 200,955
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 160,264
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 152,657
Alzheimer’s disease: 134,242

Of course we don't know for certain if the COVID death rate will continue dropping or surge in the fall/winter.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

We're currently seeing 350 deaths a day. Which at that rate would be 127000 dead a year. Below the following:

Heart disease: 696,962
Cancer: 602,350
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 200,955
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 160,264
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 152,657
Alzheimer’s disease: 134,242

Of course we don't know for certain if the COVID death rate will continue dropping or surge in the fall/winter.

I'm not sure what you and The Atheist are thinking. It doesn't matter what the current rate is. We're 9 months in to the year and there are already more than 200,955 (The "Accidents" category in your table). About 25,000 more. Even if Covid stops entirely today Covid is sill already in the number 3 slot unless something goes really out of whack with some other category in the next 3 months. No matter how low the rate goes it can't start raising people from the dead.

Right?

 

[lobosrul5]

I'm not sure what you and The Atheist are thinking. It doesn't matter what the current rate is. We're 9 months in to the year and there are already more than 200,955 (The "Accidents" category in your table). About 25,000 more. Even if Covid stops entirely today Covid is sill already in the number 3 slot unless something goes really out of whack with some other category in the next 3 months. No matter how low the rate goes it can't start raising people from the dead.

Right?

Umm you missed my point... I think? The number of deaths early in 2022 was roughly 5 to 6 times than what it is now. COVID deaths plummeted by spring and have remained relatively low, that skews the data, unless we go back to those kind of figures in the fall. The number of people dying of those other causes is pretty much static. If you divide those causes of death by 365 you'd find that 1900 people a day are dying of heart disease,

Here is California data showing that the death rate is .7 per million for the vaccinated. Thats .07 for 100,000. While the death rate for just heart disease is 211 per 100,000.... 3,000 times higher.

https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/#latest-update

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

So, if you're trying to make the point that Covid may not be number 3 next year I get it. But you agree Covid is already locked in to number 3 for this year, correct?

Umm you missed my point... I think? The number of deaths early in 2022 was roughly 5 to 6 times than what it is now. COVID deaths plummeted by spring and have remained relatively low, that skews the data, unless we go back to those kind of figures in the fall.

It doesn't skew it for the purpose I'm using. It skews it improperly if you are trying to calculate a current average to make a prediction. But it you are trying to calculate the total for this calendar year as I was then leaving them out skews the data improperly.

 

[lobosrul5]

So, if you're trying to make the point that Covid may not be number 3 next year I get it. But you agree Covid is already locked in to number 3 for this year, correct?

Yes, I just think current daily averages are far more important in making pandemic policy decisions. Now then, if the CDC has models showing COVID deaths dramatically rising to levels in February or March of this year then thats different. My odds of going out and getting very sick or dying right now is more important than what it was in February. If my odds of dying from COVID is REALLY just .7 per million (Cali DOH numbers) then I'm just not going to be very concerned about it.

ETA: but their chart showed a low of .2 per million early this year. So is it rising because there are no restrictions, or is it because immunity from the original vaccine and boosters are wearing off?

 

[marting]

So yeah, agreed, depending on local conditions, depending on one's individual situation, depending on all of that, it isn't as if no-pandemic translates into letting it all hang out now. (Although unfortunately that's exactly what seems to be actually happening, by and large, at this point. Let's just hope this doesn't come back and bite us!)

Bob Wachter, head of UC San Fran Medical, nerds out about exactly this. Discusses his risk calculation and how he determines whether it's safe to eat indoors at a restuarant w/o masks and where and when to mask up. His calculations gives great weight to risk of long covid more than serious disease/death after reviewing the most current papers and in light of his wife's long covid which is mostly reverted after 6 months but some still remains.

He goes into considerable, and very nerdy detail on his thinking in earlier threads.

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1574482749817167872

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

Yes, I just think current daily averages are far more important in making pandemic policy decisions.

Yeah, I totally agree with that. You'll note I didn't say anything about pandemic policy decisions.

 

[Chanakya]

We're currently seeing 350 deaths a day. Which at that rate would be 127000 dead a year. Below the following:

Heart disease: 696,962
Cancer: 602,350
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 200,955
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 160,264
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 152,657
Alzheimer’s disease: 134,242

Of course we don't know for certain if the COVID death rate will continue dropping or surge in the fall/winter.

I think the comparison with deaths from heart disease, and cancer, and accidents, and stroke, and Alzheimers --- all of the above, bar possibly lung disease, or at least a subset of it --- is dodgy.

The thing is, the Corona virus is infectious. Those others aren't. That for one.

And in any case, the corona virus thing is over and above the rest. That is, if we got a Venn, I guess there'd technically be a sliver of commonality in there, not as if the intersection is entirely zero I guess, but that's just a technicality. For all practical purposes this one's an addition, an extra.

So that, even if it turns out Corona virus is at #7, say, that's still nothing to sneeze at. It isn't as if this thing gets taken seriously only if it is at #1!



eta: Not saying that's what you're arguing, exactly the opposite, I think. This kind of complements your argument I suppose, adds to it I guess.

etaa: Just read through your other posts, so maybe not? (My ETA above, I mean to say.) Whatever, either way.

 

[The Atheist]

We're nine months in to the year and I'm not even sure your six month number is right.

It is, I gave you the link showing the exact details.

Note that I clarified in a later post that Covid is already in the number three position, not just potentially as I said in the earlier post of mine.

We're working at cross purposes.

When looking at whether the pandemic is over, what happened in the past isn't relevant when the current situation is vastly different.

 

[lobosrul5]

I think the comparison with deaths from heart disease, and cancer, and accidents, and stroke, and Alzheimers --- all of the above, bar possibly lung disease, or at least a subset of it --- is dodgy.

The thing is, the Corona virus is infectious. Those others aren't. That for one.

And in any case, the corona virus thing is over and above the rest. That is, if we got a Venn, I guess there'd technically be a sliver of commonality in there, not as if the intersection is entirely zero I guess, but that's just a technicality. For all practical purposes this one's an addition, an extra.

So that, even if it turns out Corona virus is at #7, say, that's still nothing to sneeze at. It isn't as if this thing gets taken seriously only if it is at #1!



eta: Not saying that's what you're arguing, exactly the opposite, I think. This kind of complements your argument I suppose, adds to it I guess.

etaa: Just read through your other posts, so maybe not? (My ETA above, I mean to say.) Whatever, either way.

Its not necessarily dodgy depending on what the purpose of the comparison is. If Cali DOH figures are right and my odds of dying from COVID in a year are really just .07 per 100k per year as a vaccinated person, then its irrelevant for my decision making. Its basically negligible compared to common causes of death. Also, I can't find odds of contracting long COVID which indeed might influence my decisions.

 

[Warp12]

Pretty much over in the US. Worldometer is showing 1% fatality, which is obviously heavily weighted to the early period of the pandemic. In my state, under 25 deaths per day, out of a population of over 8 million.

My doctor's office still requires a mask. I have no issue with that. Otherwise, I don't wear one or take any other precautions. Triple-vaxxed.

 

[marting]

Its not necessarily dodgy depending on what the purpose of the comparison is. If Cali DOH figures are right and my odds of dying from COVID in a year are really just .07 per 100k per year as a vaccinated person, then its irrelevant for my decision making. Its basically negligible compared to common causes of death. Also, I can't find odds of contracting long COVID which indeed might influence my decisions.

Agree that would be negligible. For a California population of about 40M assuming 90% vax rate, that comes out to 25 per year or just over 2 vaxxed, covid-19 deaths per month in Calif.

It isn't true.

 

[The Atheist]

'Straya hasn't declared the pandemic over, they've just removed all the rules: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-63084976

 

[dann]

Reality Check

March 25, 2022:

I posted this in the science thread yesterday.

Since the start of omicron, we've [NZ] had an official 11% of the population infected, and I'm going to err way on the side of caution and say the true numbers are 20%, or 1M cases. (I believe it's more like 40%, using absence numbers at schools and workplaces)

Of that million infections, we've never had over 1000 in hospital, with numbers dropping right now, and maximum 40 in ICU. Deaths are listed at 192, but that is all deaths where covid has been present within 28 days of death. The number confirmed to be as a result of covid is a whopping 43.

It's now abundantly clear that post-vaccination omicron is a very minor issue. The people dying have almost exclusively been very frail people, or as my Aussie mate says, people whose toe tags had already been printed. 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that.

Barring a new variant of concern, the pandemic is done and dusted.

I see nothing about long covid to dissuade me from that view, and omicron has shown that nothing will stop it, so the best plan is to ignore it. Masks are fine, but merely delay the inevitable. The evidence of harm among the vaccinated is sketchy and shows no major harm being done to more than a tiny fraction of people, if even that.

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, March 25 to Dec 27:
Mar 25, 2022: 273
Dec 27, 2022: 2,331

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, 2022: 2,283 (Covid-19 deaths from Jan 1 to Feb 19, 2022: 5 (five!)).

Man, they must have had an awful lot of flu deaths this year to make 2,283 a much lower number than that!
By the way, the whole point of face masks is to 'delay the inevitable'! In combianation with vaccines, they are quite good at that.

As for flu:

Research by the University of Otago, Wellington, has found that influenza kills about 500 New Zealanders each year, making it probably New Zealand’s biggest single infectious disease killer.
Flu a major killer (University of Otago Magazine)

But Covid-19 has turned flu into a (relatively) minor killer:

University of Otago epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said while Covid-19 does share some similarities with influenza, it's had a more severe impact on New Zealanders than influenza usually does.
More than 2000 people died this year with Covid-19 identified as the underlying or contributing cause of death. Over the past 30 years an average of 695 people a year died due to influenza or pneumonia. Since 1991 the highest number of deaths attributed to influenza or pneumonia in a single year was 1197 and the lowest was 382.
As well as killing more people than influenza, Covid-19 put more people in hospital this year than influenza did in a typical year.
(...)
"It's far more severe," Baker said, and it could be shaping up to be our second biggest killer.
(...)
As well as being a bigger killer than many diseases, Covid-19 deaths were also higher than this year's current road toll and 2019's suspected suicides.
(...)
"I think what we're missing at the moment in New Zealand is a very clear strategy which says, actually, our goal is both to reduce the rate of infections and the consequences."
Covid-19 vs the flu: Death rates compared (RNZ.co.nz, Dec 23, 2022)

Hospitalizations 2022
Flu: 5,087
Covid-19: 20,516

Baker also mentions road deaths and suicides:

As well as being a bigger killer than many diseases, Covid-19 deaths were also higher than this year's current road toll and 2019's suspected suicides.

New Zealand road deaths in 2022: 373 - a little more than the average of recent years and yet no comparison to the SARS-CoV-2 death toll.

 

[dann]

Agree that would be negligible. For a California population of about 40M assuming 90% vax rate, that comes out to 25 per year or just over 2 vaxxed, covid-19 deaths per month in Calif.

It isn't true.

According to Google:

Statistics
Vaccinations
From Our World in Data · Last reported: 2 days ago
California, USA
At least 1 dose 84,9 %
Fully vaccinated 74,9 %

 

[marting]

Its not necessarily dodgy depending on what the purpose of the comparison is. If Cali DOH figures are right and my odds of dying from COVID in a year are really just .07 per 100k per year as a vaccinated person, then its irrelevant for my decision making. Its basically negligible compared to common causes of death. Also, I can't find odds of contracting long COVID which indeed might influence my decisions.

The error here is that .07 per 100k death rate is not per year, it's daily. And a majority of those deaths are among those fully vaccinated. Unlike in China where vaccination rates are higher among younger people, in the USA they are higher amongst the elderly. This error reduces expected death rates by 1/365 and is why I made this post in response:

Agree that would be negligible. For a California population of about 40M assuming 90% vax rate, that comes out to 25 per year or just over 2 vaxxed, covid-19 deaths per month in Calif.

It isn't true.

Effective vax rate here, adjusted for risk of death, is around 90%.

 

[dann]

Maybe the sign will be that we stop seeing headlines like these several times a year:
New versions of Omicron are masters of immune evasion (Science, May 10, 2022)
Japanese Study Finds That BQ.1.1 Variant Has Enhanced Binding Affinity to Human ACE2 Receptor and Greater Fusogenicity than B.A.5! (Thailand Medical News, Dec 10, 2022)
From the Thailand article:

Their detailed phylogenetic and epidemic dynamic analyses suggest that Omicron sub variants independently increased their viral fitness by acquiring the convergent substitutions. Particularly, BQ.1.1, which harbors all five convergent substitutions, shows the highest fitness among the viruses investigated.
Worryingly, neutralization assays show that BQ.1.1 is more resistant to breakthrough BA.2/5 infection sera than BA.5.
Furthermore, the BQ.1.1 spike exhibits enhanced binding affinity to human ACE2 receptor and greater fusogenicity than the BA.5 spike.

A Danish article, Ny variant driver coronasmitten ved at undvige immunitet – også fra de nye vacciner (TV2.dk, Jan 1, 2023: New variant drives the corona transmission by evading immunity), says that "according to an American expert, BQ.1.1 is actually so contagious that it is close to being at the level of measles, which is considered to be the world's most contagious virus."

 

[Roger Ramjets]

It's now abundantly clear that post-vaccination omicron is a very minor issue. The people dying have almost exclusively been very frail people, or as my Aussie mate says, people whose toe tags had already been printed. 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that.
I see nothing about long covid to dissuade me from that view, and omicron has shown that nothing will stop it, so the best plan is to ignore it. Masks are fine, but merely delay the inevitable. The evidence of harm among the vaccinated is sketchy and shows no major harm being done to more than a tiny fraction of people, if even that.

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths, New Zealand, 2022: 2,283 (Covid-19 deaths from Jan 1 to Feb 19, 2022: 5 (five!)).

Man, they must have had an awful lot of flu deaths this year to make 2,283 a much lower number than that!

You misunderstand. The Atheist said 'going to be much lower than that'. Who knows, he may be right - some day.

By the way, the whole point of face masks is to 'delay the inevitable'! In combination with vaccines, they are quite good at that.

New Zealand scrapped their mask mandate on September 12. But the death rate from covid rose dramatically long before that, corresponding to lifting lockdowns because the virus had mutated to a form that was unstoppable. Since the mask mandate was 'retired' (except in medical facitilies and retirement homes, where they really should be used all the time anyway) the infection rate has slowly climbed, but nowhere near where it got to at the height of Omicron. Most of the deaths occurred during the period when Omicron 'escaped' into the wider community, and they were almost all old frail people like The Atheist said (a real tragedy for sure, but what can you do with a variant that's unstoppable? Even China has had to concede...).

Yes, masks work - but with the current strains they don't work well enough to make much of a difference. Vaccinations are more important. Unfortunately New Zealand has not managed to achieve the vaccination levels it could have. I suspect this is due to people thinking the pandemic was over so they didn't need boosters.

It's not over yet. However I think it probably will be by the end of this year. Covid is becoming the new 'flu. Eventually the death rate will reach similar levels.

Maybe the sign will be that we stop seeing headlines like these several times a year:

I think we will be seeing signs like this for a long time to come. But unlike before we will jump on them fast. You will get a booster to ward off the latest variants, just we get a 'flu shot every year. We are not going to see the true pandemic numbers of before. The virus will have become endemic.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

....
Yes, masks work - but with the current strains they don't work well enough to make much of a difference. ...

Given that the data supporting the effectiveness of masks when worn by the person shedding virus was ignored for months as people not looking at the research relied on their bias confirmation that respiratory viruses were droplet spread, I'd like to see some hard data that masks are ineffective against newer variants of COVID.

Not saying it isn't true but it seems to me that mask burnout coincided with new variants and I'm not sure those two variables were sorted out.

 

[The Atheist]

Vaccinations are more important. Unfortunately New Zealand has not managed to achieve the vaccination levels it could have. I suspect this is due to people thinking the pandemic was over so they didn't need boosters.

^Opinion.

Reality: One of the highest rates of boosters in the world, 3.5 times the world average; considerably higher than USA & UK.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...rica~CAN~PRT~POL~Scotland~ZAF~GRC~GBR~KWT~JPN