In this case, lack of foresight is going to be very costly and maybe fatal to an entire area.
This will be costly, yes, but it's still unlikely that the entire area will be fatally harmed by the presence of this nuclear power plant. Because so far the containment has done what it's supposed to do. Despite a 8.9-9.0 earthquake (amazing), 3 aftershocks that were over 7.0, and couple dozen other aftershocks that have been over 6.0 in magnitude. And despite several 7+ meter tsunami waves. You think every coastal nuclear power plant should be build to withstand that sort of event?
You need to bring a little perspective to your analysis. So far noone has died as a result of radiation release. And this is despite the fact that this was a 40 year old design. Yet it's likely that tens of thousands or even a hundred thousand people are already dead from the effects of the quake and tsunami. Do you think lack of foresight is responsible for those deaths? Why should they be viewed with any less concern?
What would you suggest authorities do to prevent those deaths? Hmmmmm? Build 10 meter high, tsunami resistant walls along any coastline anywhere near a large fault? Well that's basically every coast around the ring of fire. You think that won't be costly? You think that's feasible? And is 10 meters high enough?
Afterall, the tsunami that resulted from the Indian Ocean quake in 2004 was 15 meters high in some places (actually, some reports suggest it was 30 meters high in places). Shouldn't foresight suggest we design for that instead? Afterall, that event killed hundreds of thousands. And probably would have killed that many even in earthquake prepared Japan. Or in Los Angeles.
Seismologists have stated the Japan quake is the largest quake within the boundaries of the North American and Pacific tectonic plates in 1,200 years. Is that the period of time we should design for? Since in the last century we've seen tsunamis that reached heights of 30 meters, can you really say how high the highest might be in a 1200 year period?
Do you know the size of an asteroid that can be expected to impact once every 1200 years somewhere on earth? According to this:
http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~nowack/geos105/lect19-dir/lecture19_files/image026.jpg , it's over 100 meters in diameter. Now do you know how big a tsunami is believed to be produced by a 100 meter impact in the ocean?
According to this recent book (
http://books.google.com/books?id=6l...ge&q=tsunami size asteroid 100 meters&f=false ) , a 100 meter stone asteroid will produce a 15.5 meter high deep ocean wave height at a distance of 50 km. A 1.6 meter high deep ocean wave height at a distance of 500 km. And a 0.4 meter deep ocean wave height at a distance of 2000 km. And of course, an iron asteroid would produce wave heights that are about 70% higher still.
Now at 2000 km, a deep ocean wave height of 0.4 to 0.7 meters may not sound like much, but when that wave reaches a shore, it shocks up. In other words, the front of the wave slows down allowing the rear portions to overtake it, thus increasing the height of the wave. Dramatically. It's not unusual to see on-shore tsunami heights of 10 times (or more) the deep ocean wave height. So that 0.4 to 0.7 meters becomes 4 to 7 meters. And if you are unlucky enough to be only 500 km away at the time, you might see a wall of water 16 to 27 meters high. So if we are going to design with 1200 year foresight, then perhaps we really should be designing for asteroid induced tsunamis that are even higher than the 7 meters that occurred in this catastrophe.
And just to raise your concern further, consider this ...
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/11/20/asteroid-tsunami.html
