2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[rjh01]

<snip>
There are quite a few possibilities. Better tracking by technology. Possibly even approximate diagnosis by a `big data' approach. Get as many people as possible to enter all their possible symptoms into an app every day, as well as allow their contacts to be traced. It's quite possible that some kind data mining could then lead to (far from completely reliable) diagnosis based just on this data, so available for everyone and not limited by testing capacity. The suspected people need to self-isolate. Not perfect, but could have a big effect on the spread. Perhaps technological approaches to lock-down: you can go outside, but not meet in groups. And anyone who wants to go outside has to agree to run a tracking app while outside, which reports violations of the no groups rule. Yes there are problems with all of these ideas!

<snip>

No need for anything as complex as that. Here is someone very simple

https://trends.google.com.au/trends/explore?date=today 1-m&q=covid 19 symptoms,fever

It shows how worried people are about the virus. You can change the search terms.

 

[Meridian]

Incidentally, it's clear that you can't rely on the `critical' numbers on worldometer. Some countries/regions don't seem to be reporting them in a way that ends up there. For example, Germany has shown exactly 2 critical cases for quite a few days, in a period in which quite a few have died.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

A snapshot just now of the countries in positions 4 through 6 in total cases:

Notable is the marked difference in the total cases to deaths ratio.

 

[Tero]

We are screwed, In US, you would be better off in Italy
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1241225019952263170

 

[Skeptical Greg]

We are screwed when we look to Twitter and celebrities for leadership..

 

[Cheetah]

We are screwed when we don't heed good advice because we don't like the source..

 

[Blue Mountain]

A snapshot just now of the countries in positions 4 through 6 in total cases:

[qimg]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49681978943_157fd99a45_c.jpg[/qimg]

Notable is the marked difference in the total cases to deaths ratio.

(Slightly invalid comment; see edit below.) That could be the result of testing only "obvious" cases. We're seeing the same thing here in Canada vs the US, where Canada has been testing more people. Literally: as of yesterday, Canada, with 1/10 the population of the US, had tested more people than the US had, 78,417 in Canada vs 54,205 in the US. As a result, Canada is showing a far fewer confirmed cases per 100,000 tested. Canada's numbers as of yesterday were 1,178 confirmed cases per 100,000 tests, while the US was at 34,460 cases per 100,000 tests.

Edit: well, the above comment was talking about the number of cases per 100,000 tests, while your comment was deaths per cases. Some of the same logic may apply: it's possible the number of cases being reported is skewed due to differences in testing patterns.

 

[casebro]

....

There isn't.,,,,,

Particles is particles. The filer don't know the difference,

<snip>

Do the filters we see floor people wear filer out viruses?You know, the ones that tie to the face? How? It must be a cheap improvement over the nuisance dust mask, they are disposable.

Edited by Loss Leader: 

Edited for Rule 12

 

[Blue Mountain]

I'm not that far away, you can bring me some.

Too late; the border was closed at midnight.

 

[Blue Mountain]

Particles is particles. The filer don't know the difference,

Particle size is important, though. A dust mask only has to keep out dust particles, which are quite a bit larger than viruses. You don't make a window screen out of chicken wire. The chicken wire will prevent cats and squirrels from getting in, but not flies or wasps.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

(Slightly invalid comment; see edit below.) That could be the result of testing only "obvious" cases. We're seeing the same thing here in Canada vs the US, where Canada has been testing more people. Literally: as of yesterday, Canada, with 1/10 the population of the US, had tested more people than the US had, 78,417 in Canada vs 54,205 in the US. As a result, Canada is showing a far fewer confirmed cases per 100,000 tested. Canada's numbers as of yesterday were 1,178 confirmed cases per 100,000 tests, while the US was at 34,460 cases per 100,000 tests.

Edit: well, the above comment was talking about the number of cases per 100,000 tests, while your comment was deaths per cases. Some of the same logic may apply: it's possible the number of cases being reported is skewed due to differences in testing patterns.

Yes, USA didn't bypass Norway in numbers of tested untill yesterday. (Norway currently at 49451)

 

[ProBonoShill]

How does being afraid and/or sexy help?

I thunk they were referring to the people who refused to isolate or practice social distancing cause "I'm not afraid of some stupid virus".

In fact there were people still flying into to Vegas Tuesday afternoon when half the city had been shut down, too bad for them the other half closed the very next day.

No, just no. Your friend is wrong on multiple counts. Not even close.

The rest of your post is full of inaccuracies as well.

If I may second SG most of this is scientific nonssense

* I am sure capsid would expand on this if asked!

You and SG addressed it. I find it concerning that the lay person can misinterpret the information.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

My apologies I should've vetted this info before posting and/or posed it as a set of inquiries seeking more info, instead of what it looked like, a health advisory.

I'm not an expert in this field, not even close.

It seems odd to me to accept someone in the music business as an authority on viral epidemiology, especially as much of the material is apparently inaccurate. There's enough misinformation out there without spreading around a load of compost that appears to be made up, or at least cobbled together by someone with a thoroughly imperfect understanding of the subject.

This was shared from a friend's timeline (he's a musician) who got it from somewhere else. I've tracked down the original message and it was created by a nurse who practices at Highland hospital in California and claims to have college level Virology knowledge. I'm guessing that's part of the curriculum when becoming an RN, but not sure.


Anyway, I'm sorry for posting that message and apologize again if anyone was mislead. Thanks for the corrections, I was just trying help, but it won't happen again unless I've done some research and background checking first.

Like most reading the thread, I'm here to learn and gain new info and appreciate all the explanations.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

I posted many, many posts ago, that the size of the virus is ~150nm across. A correctly fitted N95 mask filters 95% of particles 300nm in size.

Unless you are planning to get up-close to an infected person and be exposed to droplets containing the virus I don't see how wearing a mask (e.g., while shopping or otherwise walking about outside) is going to help very much.

If you are living with someone who has the virus and sharing facilities then you will probably become infected no matter what you do.

 

[Blue Mountain]

Shouldn't that be half the ratio of 1:10? 1/20 is half of 1/10.

I think that may be a confusion over ratio vs fraction. The point I'm trying to make here is typically American numbers run 10× that of Canada in a lot of things. For example, for every pound of spaghetti sold in Canada, I would expect 10 pounds to be sold in the US. But with the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, American number isn't 10× that of Canada, it's double that: 20×. That tells me the US is getting hit twice as hard as Canada.

Also, given the number of tests done, shouldn't the same rate in the population be expected to lead to more positive tests in Canada?

Hmmm. I'm having trouble parsing this statement. The 1.4:1 number in the "Tested" line is showing that Canada has tested 1.4 people for every 1 person the US has tested. If the US was on its game, that ratio should be 1:10, with about 780,500 tested in the US vs 78,400 in Canada. Instead, the US has tested a paltry 54,000 people.

Obviously given that so few tests have been done in the US, the tests done there are going to be of a more at risk population.

True.

Still, the 1/10 shouldn't be your base rate. In that case 1/20 is an even starker difference.

Perhaps the only confusion is you're using "1/20" to express the ratio, which I interpret as a fraction, as opposed to "1:20", which is a ratio and implies multiplication, not division.

 

[casebro]

Particle size is important, though. A dust mask only has to keep out dust particles, which are quite a bit larger than viruses. You don't make a window screen out of chicken wire. The chicken wire will prevent cats and squirrels from getting in, but not flies or wasps.

As usual, a quick googling will learn me more than the experts.

The typical mask worn in hospitals is useless, too leaky. Next step up is N95- "The 'N95' designation means that when subjected to careful testing, the respirator blocks at least 95 percent of very small (0.3 micron) test particles. " It has a metal strip that can be bent to fit the nose for a better seal. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it won't stop viruses either. Does stop big gobbets of goo. Might as well use the wet coffee filter. There is another industrial thing, CARP? I didn't look up. also useable in a medical setting. I know because I just got an email from my HMO asking for contractors to donate those two types.

The CAPR, helmet and face mask system is a fan based, fan either at your waist or in a helmet, $1800.

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/diy-homemade-mask-protect-virus-coronavirus/?rel=1 is a comparison of home made, surgical, or N95. Home made works about 68%, and better after 3 hours- I assume of catching condensation.

HEPA vacuum cleaner bags?

 

[Blue Mountain]

Confirmed cases are up only 6% from yesterday. This may be a reporting anomaly, or it may be a hopeful sign.

Let's hope it's hopeful.

Canada shut schools pretty quickly, and I'll bet my life that shutting schools removes a massive percentage of vectors and cuts the infection rate.

Education is a provincial responsibility in Canada, so school closures varied across the country. Some provinces closed schools as of Monday this week, while here in mine they stayed open all week. However a lot of parents kept their kids home and teachers were showing up to empty classrooms.

 

[Blue Mountain]

As usual, a quick googling will learn me more than the experts.

I find this comment downright frightening. This is how 9/11, anti-vax, and end of the world due to the changeover of the Mayan calendar misinformation spreads.

 

[Ryokan]

The Great Pandemic of 2020 - Covid-19

There was no general thread on Covid-19, and I feel one is needed. He we can follow the pandemic as it continues to develop. Politics goes to the politics forums, and toilet paper and other shopping woes should go to the toilet paper hysteria thread.

As of right now, there are 286 799 confirmed cases worldwide, with 11 889 deaths.

That means we have passed the total number of deaths from Ebola, and it seems it has just started.

China, where the virus first appeared, seems to have the disease under control, but only managed to do so by quite draconian measures. South Korea also managed to gain control, by strict isolation.

The epicenter of the disease is now Europe, with descriptions that seem apocalyptical coming from Italy, and it's looking like Spain is soon to follow.

Even with extreme measures, the number of deaths are rising all over Europe.

We're also seeing deaths rise fast in the USA.

How long can countries be in lockdown? And how long is required? Will the economy break before then?

My fear is, and I don't think I'm alone in this, that it's just starting. It will get worse, a lot worse, before it's done. Even though the disease isn't that deadly, we only need to look to Italy to see that even with this low of a mortality rate, it can wreak havoc on any country.

 

[Ryokan]

A personal note.

I've been laid off because of a lack of customers during lockdown. Luckily, the Norwegian government has quickly passed very good compensations. And it was needed, as tens of thousands of people are being laid off.

I was originally quarantined last week, because I came in contact with someone that tested positive for corona through work. However, I was let out of quarantine because the person wasn't showing symptoms, and therefore, most likely, wasn't very infectious.

But even so, I have tried to isolate myself as well as possible. I've only gone to the supermarket once, to get some non-essentials. I saw where this possibly lead a week before lockdown, and I built up a small store of non-perishable foodstuffs and simple medicines.

I'm more worried about my mother. My mother is blind, a bowel cancer survivor and a stroke survivor. She never really recovered from her stroke, so she's in a nursing home. That nursing home has been in a complete lockdown for a week now, so I can't visit her.

They called from the nursing home today, and said there's a confirmed case of corona in one of the other patients. They're taking measures, of course, but I'm still worried. My mother doesn't have very good odds at surviving this disease.

Website with updated number: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Interactive map: https://coronavirus-map.com/

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

I posted many, many posts ago, that the size of the virus is ~150nm across. A correctly fitted N95 mask filters 95% of particles 300nm in size.

Unless you are planning to get up-close to an infected person and be exposed to droplets containing the virus I don't see how wearing a mask (e.g., while shopping or otherwise walking about outside) is going to help very much.

If you are living with someone who has the virus and sharing facilities then you will probably become infected no matter what you do.

True about the home infection, but the droplets from breathing or sneezing can spread quite far, and the masks definitely help there when not in the home.

That is why we in Hong Kong have been wearing them since the outbreak, and have 280 cases compared to 4000 in the UK, despite having had initial HK cases since the beginning.

One Chinese study on a bus case showed an initial infected person actually infected other people sitting over 4 metres away from her, much longer distance than was previously thought.