2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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TellyKNeasuss said:
I'm not sure what your definition of "direct contact" is. Doesn't the virus have to leave the infected person through sneezing, coughing, or something along those lines and enter the next person through their mouth, nose, or eyes?
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But that transmission can be via hands.
 
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Areas in Canada with cases of COVID-19 as of March 20, 2020, 12:00 pm EDT

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of probable cases | Number of deaths
British Columbia|271|0|8
Alberta|146|0|1
Saskatchewan|8|12|0
Manitoba|17|0|0
Ontario|308|0|2
Quebec|121|0|1
Newfoundland and Labrador|1|2|0
New Brunswick|7|4|0
Nova Scotia|5|10|0
Prince Edward Island|2|0|0
Yukon|0|0|0
Northwest Territories|0|0|0
Nunavut|0|0|0
Repatriated travellers|12|0|0
Total | 898 | 28 | 12
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Confirmed cases are up only 6% from yesterday. This may be a reporting anomaly, or it may be a hopeful sign.

The latest points covered by CBC News

CBC News said:
  • Ottawa finalizing plan to boost production of COVID-19 pandemic supplies.
  • Death of Canadian in Japan linked to virus, foreign minister says.
  • Canadians looking for mortgage deferrals from big banks facing delays, denials.
  • Sobeys installing Plexiglas cashier shields as grocers ramp up protection measures.
  • Number of cases in Canada passes 1,000.
  • Starbucks to close stores, move to drive-through and delivery.
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Canada vs the USA (because Canada's population is 1/10 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many things run 1:10 for Canada:USA.)

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. The page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may be different.

Metric | Canada | USA | Ratio | Notes
Tested|78,417|54,205|1.4:1|Canada, with 1/10 the population, has tested more people than the States
Confirmed Cases|924|18,679|1:20|This is twice the expected 1:10 ratio
Deaths|12|205|1:17|1.7× the expected 1:10 ratio
 
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Shouldn't that be half the ratio of 1:10? 1/20 is half of 1/10.

Also, given the number of tests done, shouldn't the same rate in the population be expected to lead to more positive tests in Canada? Obviously given that so few tests have been done in the US, the tests done there are going to be of a more at risk population. Still, the 1/10 shouldn't be your base rate. In that case 1/20 is an even starker difference.
 
Meanwhile:
Italy: daily cases still grow. After 2 weeks of lockdown no sign of improvement. We migh possibly need China style lockdown. Ie. you wont leave your home. No work. No school. No park. Maybe 1 person can go to shop once a week. And most likely, repression.
Germany, Spain: races Italy in daily cases.
USA: Germany, Spain, step aside. With that many more citizens, USA enters the race in big style. Likely to overtake Italy tomorrow.

If somebody is interested, our insignificant Czech Republic started Italy style lock down week ago. Before we even had 100 cases, and we're still at 0 deaths. We grow just as fast as everybody else. There is shortage of respirators and masks, even for hospitals.
However, on Monday, people started to make their own masks, from fabric, and proudly present them on facebook. Since gold old communist era every woman has a sewing machine and knows how to sew. Dresses, jackets, pants. Few masks is nothing. So everybody is turning old shirts and every other piece of fabric into masks. Every mask is original, and usually colorful.
Government made masks mandatory in public on Tuesday, as they realized it is actually possible because of this. Sure, mask like that won't protect you, but if everybody is wearing one, there be lot less viruses flying in the air.
 
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TellyKNeasuss said:
I'm not sure what your definition of "direct contact" is. Doesn't the virus have to leave the infected person through sneezing, coughing, or something along those lines and enter the next person through their mouth, nose, or eyes?
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Yes.

I still consider hand - mouth infection is the most likely issue with Covid-19.

There was an infected person who attended a concert. Sitting next to him coughing for 90 minutes, not one of the nearby concert-goers got infected.

On the other side, a wedding party is Australia had 37 of 100 or so guests catch the disease.

This is something that I'd like to see some serious effort put into figuring it out.

Blue Mountain said:
Confirmed cases are up only 6% from yesterday. This may be a reporting anomaly, or it may be a hopeful sign.
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Let's hope it's hopeful.

Canada shut schools pretty quickly, and I'll bet my life that shutting schools removes a massive percentage of vectors and cuts the infection rate.
 
This is the fourth day in a row with 30% growth in new cases. A perfect blueprint of an out-of-control growth pattern.

If not stopped, we'll be seeing 100,000 new cases a day in five days from now, 26 March.
 
novaphile said:
Meanwhile...

I've been a little quiet, because we're all been sent home, to work from home, "until further notice".

Fortunately my kind of work is amenable to this kind of thing...

Australia is currently showing 791 cases, 7 deaths and 26 recovered.

I'm expecting case numbers to go up, because we're having a mass return of Australians (and their close relatives) from abroad at the moment.

Closures etc. are continuing to increase.
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The good news is that only 2 of the current 875 cases in Australia are classed as serious.
873 are classed as mild.*Yes, growth is currently looking to be exponential as it is in the rest of the world, but 0.3% of cases being serious does not warrant the overreaction of the public at the moment.

And then there is the stupidity and complacency of others.
Sydney’s famous Bondi Beach has now been closed because people were crowding onto it and ignoring restrictions on gathering of over 500.

* worldometer classifications are :
  • mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.
  • severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
  • critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ
    failure
 
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William Parcher said:
That article begins by saying that pangolins are a prime suspect and a contender for being the source animal. That is not what you said at all.
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I just checked that I linked the right article. I did.

Maybe you only had time for a quick read. Right after the article notes that pangolins have been proposed to be the prime suspect there is a big but and the article then goes on to discuss substantial reasons this is in fact questionable.

I never said that pangolins cannot be the source, nor does the article, but that is now far from clear. In fact the information in the article makes pangolins pretty unlikely based on the sequence.
 
EHocking said:
The good news is that only 2 of the current 875 cases in Australia are classed as serious.
873 are classed as mild.*Yes, growth is currently looking to be exponential as it is in the rest of the world, but 0.3% of cases being serious does not warrant the overreaction of the public at the moment.
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Expect that to change - I see the unbelievable from Aussie: the Golden Slipper race meeting is happening with crowds in attendance. I just watched the Ranvet and it was so heartening to see groups of owners and supporters hugging each other after the race.
 
Italy had almost 6000 new cases and 627 deaths yesterday.


:(


I wonder when it's going to start to flatten due to the isolation.


South Africa at 202 cases.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Come on Casebro, stop posting unsupportable crap. Wet face masks act like a wick.
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https://trends.directindustry.com/technicis-filtration/project-155536-124910.html

Water/Wet spray booth VS dry spray booth = reduce your operating costs
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Stop calling people with knowledge other than your own stoopid. It makes you sound like the stoopid one.

Yup, a wick, that wicks particulates like viruses away from your face.

You know those paper filters in your car? They are wetted too- with oil. Perhaps an oily T shirt wouldn't dry out? Or if you want it to sound more within your bailiwick, use polyethylene glycol, or maybe aloe, or hand cream.

So you tell us, what is the physical difference between a surgical mask and a home depot nuisance dusk mask?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Your logic is a fail, sorry. If you crash the health care system it will take a long time for it to recover.

So are you suggesting we send the old and infirm off on a ice flow and forget about it? :boggled:
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I was explaining the argument in the paper, not that I agree with it.

Also, it’s “ice floe”.
 
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