2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Marcus said:
It's not an all or nothing proposition. Flatten the curve, but not too much. If we keep everyone on lockdown for too long, the cure will be worse than the disease.
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The financial pressure to ease the lockdown is enormous. I worry more about a premature loosening.
 
Darat said:
Again totally incomparable in terms of the different economies.
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I didn’t have a chance to reply to your prior post on this issue but I did read it. I would argue that our current economy is more resistant to disruption by epidemics than in 1918. Much more is automated and much more is done on line. Milk as in your prior example is collected by machines and processed by highly automated dairies, fewer people needed to keep it going. Homes heated by gas and electricity. Sick coal truck drivers not an issue. Etc.
 
Giordano said:
Absolutely but so far it looks like a product of a recombination that is likely to have been a rare event.
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Agree - I don't see that as a problem.[/QUOTE]

Giordano said:
The financial pressure to ease the lockdown is enormous. I worry more about a premature loosening.
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I still have yet to any kind of adequate answer as to how the lockdown ends.

South Korea, despite the earliest and most massive control efforts, are still seeing outbreaks.
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And in news I've been predicting for days, NZ has its first confirmed cases of community transmission. Based on the evidence of the complete worthlessness of our government and health ministry, and the stark evidence of 100 countries who have already been at this juncture, the next steps will be:

Major community transmission across multiple areas.
Belated closing of schools.
Even more belated closing of non-essential businesses.
Massive overloading of hospital systems as it hits the 15% living in poverty.

If only there'd been some warning this kind of outcome was possible...
 
a_unique_person said:
It can't survive long outside the human body.
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On certain surfaces, it can survive and remain viable for up to 72 hours.
If infections cease then I guess it is gone. Smallpox is gone, for example. In a year we will have an effective vaccine.
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It is not the same beast as smallpox. Even with a vaccine, it cannot be guaranteed that it will be gone - in the same way that other coronaviruses, MERS and SARS have not “gone”. Despite vaccinations existing for these coronaviruses, these kill thousands still.
And apparently COVID-19 is more infectious than it’s “cousins”.

ETA - there is no vaccine for SARS and MERS.
 
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Giordano said:
Absolutely but so far it looks like a product of a recombination that is likely to have been a rare event. Required co-infection of one individual with two different viruses at one time, then exposure of a larger human population to the recombinant. The original animal with the recombinant is long gone. Virus may therefore not be established in original animal population (eg bats). Or may not even replicate well any more in original animal host. Even if there is a non-human reservoir it may be like Ebola: outbreaks in specific geographic areas that an be tracked and knocked out. Not global epidemics if people stay alert.
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There is speculation (but not certainty) that it came from handling and/or eating pangolin. That is not a rare event in China.

Making wild animal markets illegal won't stop the black market from providing all of the same. It's still not known that the disease started at the Wuhan market anyway.
 
William Parcher said:
Making wild animal markets illegal won't stop the black market from providing all of the same. It's still not known that the disease started at the Wuhan market anyway.
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Making it illegal won't stop it, but in China, it could easily be stamped out.
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And another 30% growth in new cases today.
 
lomiller said:
There is an age bias that can be corrected for, but other than that, how is this not a random sample?
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Age; economic status ergo better health care than in a random population sample; less ethnic diversity; IIRC, not counting the crew cases; unknown source of transmission - for example a crew member could have gone from room to room infecting everyone, maybe that would or would not have the same outcome as a random sample....
 
William Parcher said:
There is speculation (but not certainty) that it came from handling and/or eating pangolin. That is not a rare event in China.

Making wild animal markets illegal won't stop the black market from providing all of the same. It's still not known that the disease started at the Wuhan market anyway.
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Latest article I saw in scientific literature suggested pangolins are not very likely. The market too as case zero less certain than originally.
 
chrispy said:
What a speech he is giving right now. Wow.
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Interesting to compare it to Inslee's press conference today. Inslee is still playing nice, using a guilt and common sense appeal. Cuomo is going for the autocratic you will do it approach.

Reminds me of the parent: "Don't make me come in there!"

Vs the parent opening the door paddle* in hand.


*Corporal punishment is unnecessary and a fail, unrelated to the metaphor.
 
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EHocking said:
On certain surfaces, it can survive and remain viable for up to 72 hours. It is not the same beast as smallpox. Even with a vaccine, it cannot be guaranteed that it will be gone - in the same way that other coronaviruses, MERS and SARS have not “gone”. Despite vaccinations existing for these coronaviruses, these kill thousands still.
And apparently COVID-19 is more infectious than it’s “cousins”.

ETA - there is no vaccine for SARS and MERS.
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Sure but 72 hrs in terms of long term persistence in population is not a big issue.

What helped eradicate smallpox was not the type of virus it was but that it had no non-human animal reservoir. This question is still unclear as to Covid-19.
 
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