2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Governor Newsom ordered "Shelter in Place " for all of Calijfornia a few minutes ago.
Maybe this was why he isusesd that 52% of Californians will get infected" statemnt, which he has already modifiec.
 
No, just no. Your friend is wrong on multiple counts.
ProBonoShill said:
This is copied from a friend in the music biz, hoping it helps:

very rarely and hate to have to say it but all joking aside...

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
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Not even close.

Influenza is not an “all human virus” by any stretch. Influenza viruses are endemic across many species from birds and water fowl to pigs, horses, dogs, and more.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
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Nope, not this either. Yes, zoonotic disease can be dangerous after a species jump. But not always. MERs jumped from camels to people but still hasn't adapted to become easily spread person to person. HPAI H5N1 only needs a couple more mutations to become easily spread person to person. That has not happened yet.

West Nile Virus is carried by mosquitos, but it is not a species jump.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
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Sometimes, but your description is over-generalized.


H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
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The Spanish flu was an H1N1 flu strain.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
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No, that is not what happened in "two weeks".

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
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There are several strains of human coronavirus.


The rest of your post is full of inaccuracies as well.
 
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dudalb said:
Governor Newsom ordered "Shelter in Place " for all of Calijfornia a few minutes ago.
Maybe this was why he isusesd that 52% of Californians will get infected" statemnt, which he has already modifiec.
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He wants Mercy to dock in LA but I believe it is on its way to Puget Sound already.
 
TellyKNeasuss said:
Though I probably don't need to further demonstrate my ignorance, I will anyway. I've been called out on several sites for posting that SARS-CoV-2 is the fault of the Chinese for selling wild animals in crowded urban markets. So what is the state of the consensus on the origin of SARS-CoV-2? What level of uncertainty remains as to where it originated?
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The source is not clear. The virus has great similarity with bat viruses, but it differs in 2 key places, which makes it new and so virulent. One of those spots was found in Pangolin coronavirus. But so far the virus was not found in any animal as is. Besides being created in animal, there is also chance of human being infected by slightly different virus, with the final change happening inside human. And there is the explosive chance of this being result of some kind of human research, even if it clearly is not bio weapon.
AFAIK it can't be linked to the animal market AT ALL. Bats are not sold there, nor pangolins. The market was tested top to bottom, nothing.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
He wants Mercy to dock in LA but I believe it is on its way to Puget Sound already.
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That was a bit of melodrama
Franklly, it would be easier just to have the Military...of which there is a lot in California...set up emergency hospitals.For instance, the Navy trains a lot of it's medical cropsmen in San Diego.
He than said people wound not be arrested for violating the order.
Which fits in that he 56% of the population being infected is a bit of jawboingin to get people to take it seriously.
 
Florida's governor refusing to close the beachers has created dozens of tweets consisitng of photos of Gov.De Santis and the Mayor from "Jaws" side by side.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
First: Incompetrump and his minions are claiming if China had acted more quickly they could have stopped it. That's complete crap. Truth is they acted very quickly regardless of the ophthalmologist tragedy.

Trump is the one who didn't act and who took meaningless measures then bragged about his bold swift action.
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This is simply incorrect.

The Chinese authorities knowingly and deliberately tried to cover it up for around 6 weeks, knowing full well it was transmissible between humans by mid December. Xi himself by his own admission knew all about it by 5th Jan. The government only admitting human to human transmission in their initial announcement in late January.

Just before that Jan announcement Wuhan went ahead with a 40,000 strong communal dinner, trying to set a world record, and a day or so after a Chinese New Year festival. God knows how many people were infected just from those events.

Only when it was obviously spiralling out of control and they couldn't keep a lid on it any longer did they act meaningfully, going for the lockdown, but even then it was badly handled, allowing 5 million to leave the area before the lockdown occurred, and spreading throughout China and onwards.

So they may have subsequently acted strongly, after it was too late, but they didn't act swiftly at all at the beginning, they instead tried to cover it up so China wouldn't look bad, and that culture of absolute control is to blame for the spread.

This is no way excuses Trump's tragic mishandling of the situation in the US, or other countries complacency and slowness to react, but it is entirely appropriate to blame the Chinese authorities for not containing the Wuhan epidemic.
 
GraculusTheGreenBird said:
This is simply incorrect.

The Chinese authorities knowingly and deliberately tried to cover it up for around 6 weeks, knowing full well it was transmissible between humans by mid December. Xi himself by his own admission knew all about it by 5th Jan. The government only admitting human to human transmission in their initial announcement in late January.

Just before that Jan announcement Wuhan went ahead with a 40,000 strong communal dinner, trying to set a world record, and a day or so after a Chinese New Year festival. God knows how many people were infected just from those events.

Only when it was obviously spiralling out of control and they couldn't keep a lid on it any longer did they act meaningfully, going for the lockdown, but even then it was badly handled, allowing 5 million to leave the area before the lockdown occurred, and spreading throughout China and onwards.

So they may have subsequently acted strongly, after it was too late, but they didn't act swiftly at all at the beginning, they instead tried to cover it up so China wouldn't look bad, and that culture of absolute control is to blame for the spread.

This is no way excuses Trump's tragic mishandling of the situation in the US, or other countries complacency and slowness to react, but it is entirely appropriate to blame the Chinese authorities for not containing the Wuhan epidemic.
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Now this is an argument that belongs in the political thread.

And I am not wrong.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
First: Incompetrump and his minions are claiming if China had acted more quickly they could have stopped it. That's complete crap. Truth is they acted very quickly regardless of the ophthalmologist tragedy.

Trump is the one who didn't act and who took meaningless measures then bragged about his bold swift action.

That aside, in retrospect one can say why didn't country X stop the conditions that led to pandemic Y?

You can say that about thousands of things. Why didn't Mexico shut down the pig farms the 2009 flu emerged from? Why doesn't the WHO help impoverished countries monitor more closely for outbreaks like ebola? Why not control mosquitos better that the Zika virus emerged through?

Hell, how did the US allow cattle and sheep offal to be put in cattle feed that led to Mad Cow?

The list is endless.
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Now this is an argument that belongs in the political thread.

And I am not wrong.
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Ditto
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Now this is an argument that belongs in the political thread.

And I am not wrong.
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Then don't make political claims in this thread, that are easily refuted by evidence.

Yes, you are wrong. China is to blame for not containing the outbreak. Pointing out that China is to blame in this instance doesn't remove blame from other countries in other instances.

China has to change itself in this regard else it will happen all over again. Thankfully there are positive signs regarding shutting down of wildlife markets. There are no positive signs regarding their instincts for absolute control.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Where are you getting this from?

Pneumonia can leave permanent lung damage.
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I did say it can.

But I don't accept there will be anywhere near as many cases of serious permanent lung damage as deaths.

GraculusTheGreenBird said:
Yes, you are wrong. China is to blame for not containing the outbreak. Pointing out that China is to blame in this instance doesn't remove blame from other countries in other instances.
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I made that exact statement earlier today.

They can lock up several million Uighurs because the government doesn't like their religion, but they let this get away from them.

100% of the blame for the outbreak rests with China.

Then, they deserve credit for belatedly shutting it down.
 
Rumor: Losartan, a BP med, may help prevent the Covid.

I have/had some. It plugs up my nose, so a) not good on a CPAP, b) maybe the mucous intercepts the virus? So, c) What else promotes nasal mucous? Horseradish? Sawdust? Eau de Pepe Le Pew?
 
Pretty ugly 30% increase in cases for the past three days in row.

That is not good news.

I note we managed to go from 10k to 100k cases outside China in 14 days. If not shut down, we have the million confirmed cases on about 31 March.
 
casebro said:
Rumor: Losartan, a BP med, may help prevent the Covid.

I have/had some. It plugs up my nose, so a) not good on a CPAP, b) maybe the mucous intercepts the virus? So, c) What else promotes nasal mucous? Horseradish? Sawdust? Eau de Pepe Le Pew?
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Does it seal up your eyes and mouth as well?

People on BP meds don't seem to do too well with Covid.
 
casebro said:
Rumor: Losartan, a BP med, may help prevent the Covid.

I have/had some. It plugs up my nose, so a) not good on a CPAP, b) maybe the mucous intercepts the virus? So, c) What else promotes nasal mucous? Horseradish? Sawdust? Eau de Pepe Le Pew?
Click to expand...

If are going to be outrageous ,edgy and in bad taste with your humor, you had better also be funny.
 
The current situation in Canada:

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Areas in Canada with cases of COVID-19 as of March 19, 2020, 6:30 pm EDT

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of probable cases
British Columbia|271|0
Alberta|146|0
Saskatchewan|8|12
Manitoba|17|0
Ontario|258|0
Quebec|121|0
Newfoundland and Labrador|1|2
New Brunswick|7|4
Nova Scotia|5|9
Prince Edward Island|2|0
Yukon|0|0
Northwest Territories|0|0
Nunavut|0|0
Repatriated travellers|10|0
Total cases | 846 | 27
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Yesterday's confirmed number was 621, so today's number is a 36% increase. I'm not seeing any flattening of the curve; I certainly hope this measure improves by next week. Deaths have risen to 12, up from 9 yesterday.

More and more businesses are temporarily shutting down, both to prevent the spread of the disease and due to lack of business.

The federal government has put into place an $82 billion package (about $2780/Canadian) aid package, including improved access to EI (Employment Insurance) for workers being laid off due to business shutdowns.

Canada and the US have agreed to put major border restrictions into place between the two countries starting tomorrow.

Another metric I'm tracking is the ratio of cases and deaths in the US vs Canada. As I've said before, typically these run 10:1 for many things. However this 10:1 rate is not in evidence for COVID-19.

Metric | USA | Canada | Ratio
Cases|14,329|846|14.6:1
Deaths|218|12|18.2:1

Part of the discrepancy in the number of cases is likely due to testing, but I can't state for certain that Canada has been doing any better on testing than the US. However I haven't heard of people in Canada who may have had COVID-19 symptoms not being tested for it.

General question: I'm putting these posts into the thread partly because I believe the information may be useful, and to serve as a day to day snapshot for historical purposes. Are others reading this thread, especially outside of Canada, finding these posts to be useful?
 
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