2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Kings Full]

Now this is an argument that belongs in the political thread.

And I am not wrong.

Not only are you wrong, you are being hypocritical.

Seriously, give it a rest.

We all know your political views.... you beat us over the head with them time after time.

 

[Planigale]

Rumor: Losartan, a BP med, may help prevent the Covid.

I have/had some. It plugs up my nose, so a) not good on a CPAP, b) maybe the mucous intercepts the virus? So, c) What else promotes nasal mucous? Horseradish? Sawdust? Eau de Pepe Le Pew?

Losartan is an angiotensin receptor antagonist. The virus binds to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 to enter the cell. Taking Losartan may increase your risk if infected. (As may some other blood pressure drugs.) In theory. This may be why hypertension and diabetes (diabetics are often on these drugs) are risk factors for covid 19.
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf
For a more detailed discussion see here.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/17/angiotensin-and-the-coronavirus

Do not stop taking any medication without discussion with your physician on the basis of internet rumours.

 

[Planigale]

This is copied from a friend in the music biz, hoping it helps:

very rarely and hate to have to say it but all joking aside...

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.

If I may second SG most of this is scientific nonsense.

The reason why we do not catch animal viruses usually is they are recognised as foreign and destroyed by the immune system. (The other reason is viruses have to bind to a specific cell receptor to enter cells and infect them, a lock and key analogy is often used, and the virus key does not fit a human lock.) Most flu viruses originate in birds. A small mutation in the flu virus makes the flu key fit a mammal lock rather than a bird lock.

RNA and DNA have little to do with immunity to viruses, it is the protein capsule* that contains the RNA or DNA that the immune system responds to.

Spanish flu was AH1N1 flu.

The epidemic in England in Henry the VIII's time was the English Sweating Sickness, we still don't know what that was.
https://hekint.org/2017/01/30/the-sweating-sickness-in-tudor-england-a-plague-of-the-renaissance/
The black death was earlier and the great plague (both bubonic plague from rats via fleas) later.

Lots of other stuff is also wrong, but this is just a few misapprehensions.

* I am sure capsid would expand on this if asked!

 

[The Atheist]

General question: I'm putting these posts into the thread partly because I believe the information may be useful, and to serve as a day to day snapshot for historical purposes. Are others reading this thread, especially outside of Canada, finding these posts to be useful?

Yeah mate, it's good stuff.

We have on the ground reports from USA, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Czech Republic, Japan, Guatemala, UK, Germany 7 no doubt a few other countries.

No question this thread gives a unique perspective - keep up the good work.

You'll find the increase starts to slow 7-10 days after the schools shut and extreme measures are taken.

As I've said many times, the big question then is, what next?

Ok, we slow it down, then everyone goes back to work & school and it takes off again, unless you're shut for months, as has been the case in China.

 

[The Atheist]

Meanwhile, NZ continues to claim there have been no cases of community transmission, despite exporting cases to Samoa & South Africa.

Now, sister ship to the Diamond Princess, the Ruby Princess, has been visiting NZ for a week and finds that four passengers have come down with Covid-19.

I call total bollocks on our "official" figures. I'd say our true number is 100 times more than the 39 shown.

 

[Planigale]

Yeah mate, it's good stuff.

We have on the ground reports from USA, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Czech Republic, Japan, Guatemala, UK, Germany 7 no doubt a few other countries.

No question this thread gives a unique perspective - keep up the good work.

You'll find the increase starts to slow 7-10 days after the schools shut and extreme measures are taken.

As I've said many times, the big question then is, what next?

Ok, we slow it down, then everyone goes back to work & school and it takes off again, unless you're shut for months, as has been the case in China.

So the question is what is the exit strategy. It has to be either 1) time - until herd immunity has developed, 2) a vaccine to speed up herd immunity, 3) An effective anti-viral treatment.

If you look at the Imperial model (the current UK model), they have a staggered exit from lock down they have modelled. Periodic tightening and releasing social isolation, allowing mini epidemics, never enough to cause the health system to be overwhelmed, but gradually allowing the whole population to be naturally infected. This would take about 18 months.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
See figure 4 page 12.

My guess is this will be the strategy until a vaccine or treatment is available.

 

[pipelineaudio]

We got at least ten new ones today, so almost doubled in one day. Still letting the tourists in and all seem to be travel related

They have the locals locked down and restricted from the parks and many jobs, but the tourists flying in and running around willy nilly

So every single day we lose our businesses and quarantine we reset back to day 0 the next day as they still have the tourists coming in. Insanity

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Yeah mate, it's good stuff.

We have on the ground reports from USA, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Czech Republic, Japan, Guatemala, UK, Germany 7 no doubt a few other countries.

No question this thread gives a unique perspective - keep up the good work.

You'll find the increase starts to slow 7-10 days after the schools shut and extreme measures are taken.

As I've said many times, the big question then is, what next?

Ok, we slow it down, then everyone goes back to work & school and it takes off again, unless you're shut for months, as has been the case in China.

I guess we should still look at how SK is doing it. From what I've seen; everybody still wearing face masks, temperatures being checked before boarding trains and subways. Perhaps letting only workers in production (industry, agriculture) go back to work?

ETA: What's the situation with contact tracing once you have gotten r0 to below 1.0? Perhaps that's easier, then?

 

[Planigale]

I guess we should still look at how SK is doing it. From what I've seen; everybody still wearing face masks, temperatures being checked before boarding trains and subways. Perhaps letting only workers in production (industry, agriculture) go back to work?

ETA: What's the situation with contact tracing once you have gotten r0 to below 1.0? Perhaps that's easier, then?

I think what makes this difficult is the number with no or mild symptoms, and if you are doing this over winter, think of the number of people with colds that you would have to test. Then there is a concern that early, the test might be false negative, and you might need two tests a few days apart to confirm true negative.

Possible but highly resource intensive.

 

[Sherkeu]

I guess we should still look at how SK is doing it. From what I've seen; everybody still wearing face masks, temperatures being checked before boarding trains and subways. Perhaps letting only workers in production (industry, agriculture) go back to work?

ETA: What's the situation with contact tracing once you have gotten r0 to below 1.0? Perhaps that's easier, then?

They need to monitor for a long time according to the weakest global link. It just takes ONE in the right circumstances to start it all over again. They have illegal crossings just like everywhere else. If I was close to there I might go myself. At least I would be checked and tested!

Also remember that they have NK - the land of no official infections - at their border and if things go far south up there, then people up there go far south. Or die trying.


Keep checking SK.

 

[Capsid]

If I may second SG most of this is scientific nonsense.

The reason why we do not catch animal viruses usually is they are recognised as foreign and destroyed by the immune system. (The other reason is viruses have to bind to a specific cell receptor to enter cells and infect them, a lock and key analogy is often used, and the virus key does not fit a human lock.) Most flu viruses originate in birds. A small mutation in the flu virus makes the flu key fit a mammal lock rather than a bird lock.

RNA and DNA have little to do with immunity to viruses, it is the protein capsule* that contains the RNA or DNA that the immune system responds to.

Spanish flu was AH1N1 flu.

The epidemic in England in Henry the VIII's time was the English Sweating Sickness, we still don't know what that was.
https://hekint.org/2017/01/30/the-sweating-sickness-in-tudor-england-a-plague-of-the-renaissance/
The black death was earlier and the great plague (both bubonic plague from rats via fleas) later.

Lots of other stuff is also wrong, but this is just a few misapprehensions.

* I am sure capsid would expand on this if asked!

You and SG addressed it. I find it concerning that the lay person can misinterpret the information.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Minoosh]

This is copied from a friend in the music biz, hoping it helps:

It seems odd to me to accept someone in the music business as an authority on viral epidemiology, especially as much of the material is apparently inaccurate. There's enough misinformation out there without spreading around a load of compost that appears to be made up, or at least cobbled together by someone with a thoroughly imperfect understanding of the subject.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Sadly I'm in the music business and was tasked with putting this whole thing in simple english where I am. You have no idea how much I value this resource here!

 

[Minoosh]

They need to monitor for a long time according to the weakest global link. It just takes ONE in the right circumstances to start it all over again. They have illegal crossings just like everywhere else. If I was close to there I might go myself. At least I would be checked and tested!

Also remember that they have NK - the land of no official infections - at their border and if things go far south up there, then people up there go far south. Or die trying.


Keep checking SK.

Per my understanding, South Koreans aren't particularly welcoming to North Koreans. And I'm not at all sure how it would react if other foreigners started showing up. Maybe they'd be tested, but they might also be invited to leave the country immediately.

 

[The Atheist]

If you look at the Imperial model (the current UK model), they have a staggered exit from lock down they have modelled. Periodic tightening and releasing social isolation, allowing mini epidemics, never enough to cause the health system to be overwhelmed, but gradually allowing the whole population to be naturally infected. This would take about 18 months.

My guess is this will be the strategy until a vaccine or treatment is available.

I think that's all that can be done, and hope like hell a vaccine works before Xmas, as Lagarde suggested yesterday.

We got at least ten new ones today, so almost doubled in one day. Still letting the tourists in and all seem to be travel related

They have the locals locked down and restricted from the parks and many jobs, but the tourists flying in and running around willy nilly

So every single day we lose our businesses and quarantine we reset back to day 0 the next day as they still have the tourists coming in. Insanity

That's what pisses me off - if we can it, the people running the places should be able to.

NZ has closed museums, events, weddings & funerals, but kids are still going to school. I've mapped us out for an explosion of cases next week.

I guess we should still look at how SK is doing it. From what I've seen; everybody still wearing face masks, temperatures being checked before boarding trains and subways. Perhaps letting only workers in production (industry, agriculture) go back to work?

ETA: What's the situation with contact tracing once you have gotten r0 to below 1.0? Perhaps that's easier, then?

It's all about numbers - fewer people to trace enables more stringent tracing.

I also think there's zero chance countries like USA would get 100% backing of allowing cellphone data to be used as SK has.

We're in for a very long and bumpy ride around the world.

Some people mightn't earn money for a year or more.

 

[Belz...]

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

I'm pretty sure that's wrong.

 

[Belz...]

Yesterday's confirmed number was 621, so today's number is a 36% increase. I'm not seeing any flattening of the curve

Those "new" cases weren't infected yesterday, Blue. They were infected weeks ago.

 

[Capsid]

I'm pretty sure that's wrong.

I think the virus tracking that is mentioned is the flu monitoring that does take place to allow annual seed strain selection for the annual flu vaccine. But that's in humans, not animals.

 

[a_unique_person]

Where are you getting this from?



Pneumonia can leave permanent lung damage.

Viruses can cause all kinds of permanent damage. They have to destroy cells to do what they do.

 

[a_unique_person]

We got at least ten new ones today, so almost doubled in one day. Still letting the tourists in and all seem to be travel related



They have the locals locked down and restricted from the parks and many jobs, but the tourists flying in and running around willy nilly



So every single day we lose our businesses and quarantine we reset back to day 0 the next day as they still have the tourists coming in. Insanity

Same with Australia, hence the travel ban.