What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

[DavidJames]

There is a long way to go and the media doesn't like a one sided race. Expect the media to focus hard on HRC's issues along with the normal all Trump all the time.

 

[Stacko]

There is a long way to go and the media doesn't like a one sided race. Expect the media to focus hard on HRC's issues along with the normal all Trump all the time.

They're doing that. You can't fill too many segments on Hillary's poor explanation for the email server. Donald's campaign is hopelessly inept at attacking her and just following the media's lead. We are all going to be so sick of hearing about proper email server protocol by the time the election rolls around.

 

[Dog Town]

Just saw a Hillary ad here in Arizona. First one I've seen on network TV (the Olympics), seen some on cable news before. It was about her job plan.

Just saw the first anti Trump ad here, in Las Vegas. It was an appearance on Letterman. Dave keeps asking him, where his clothing line is made.
lol.

 

[Stacko]

Morning Consult is Clinton+9, up from Clinton+3 immediately after the DNC. Consistent with theory that more is at play than the bounce.

 

[Craig4]

Also Georgia is close, I suspect both Georgia and Arizona could currently go either way as it would be within the margin of error.

Even if she doesn't win them, she can force Trump to spend time and resources where he probably wasn't planning to. Every dollar or event in Georgia is one not in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida.

 

[Craig4]

Suspending ads in VA and CO in favor of putting money into Arizona is openly trying to not just win but to run up the score.

Good, this can't be a tight race. This election needs to be us showing the world that we repudiate Trump.

 

[Foolmewunz]

RCP just moved VA into the blue column. With NH, OR, PA that's a pickup of 44 from a week ago, and puts her at 246. MI and WI will put her at 272 and both of those are already counted by all other aggregators.

I expect a counter-bounce, and a few of those "blue" states are light blue, so the press will make a race of it, but I'm seeing a minimum of 326 for Clinton [OH, FL, NV and ME2]. It could go up to 347 if NC and IA break her way.

Trump now needs to rebound by 8/10 points in too many states, states that don't look as though they have a chance of going GOP. As it stands now, she could even lose OH and FL and still clear the bar, but I see her taking both.

 

[Stacko]

Hillary is doing ad buys in Georgia. If someone told you a year ago that Georgia was going to be in play, you probably would have laughed at the idea.

 

[Tony Stark]

Election Update: Clinton’s Post-Convention Bump Is Holding Steady

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June.

 

[Tony Stark]

NY Times Upshot also has Hillary at an 83% chance at winning.

And assuming that only the ten currently closest states will matter, Hillary has 1021 ways to win vs 3 for Donald (including one way to tie since the House would break that in his favor).

Also, Mississippi is one of the ten closest states!

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Sad!

 

[Dog Town]

Sad!

Why so?

 

[Tony Stark]

Why so?

It's sad for Donald.

Good for the entire rest of the planet.

 

[Dog Town]

It's sad for Donald.

Good for the entire rest of the planet.

Yep!

 

[Puppycow]

538 (polls only) currently has it at 83.4% - 16.5% (about 5:1) with Arizona blue.

Was just reading the latest from Harry Enton. Apparently we need to wait a couple more weeks to be sure this isn't just the lingering effects of the post-convention bounce:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-post-convention-bump-is-holding-steady/

Any temporary bump in the polls should be gone by August 22nd or thereabouts.

 

[rdaneel]

Even more fun, if you look at the polling, with Georgia and Arizona coming into play, other States are dropping too. Texas is now under 4 points to Trump and has been dropping as Hillary climbs there. Could it be that Texas comes into play if things don't change for the Donald?

If Texas turned blue, I'm imagining all the Congressmen who would need to be replaced because their heads exploded.

 

[Upchurch]

538's now-cast is currently showing the widest gap: 89.6% Clinton to 10.4% Trump. The next closest was June 22 at 89.2% vs 10.8%.

I'd kinda like to see if it would top 90/10.

I posted too soon. 91.6/8.4 as of this moment.

Still better than the 90/10 split I wanted to see.



eta: er... I'd kinda like to see if it would top 95/5.

IT HAPPENED AGAIN! 95.4/4.6!!

I was completely kidding! Why does this keep happening?





ahem... I'd kinda like to see if it would top 98/2.

 

[dudalb]

Was just reading the latest from Harry Enton. Apparently we need to wait a couple more weeks to be sure this isn't just the lingering effects of the post-convention bounce:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-post-convention-bump-is-holding-steady/

Any temporary bump in the polls should be gone by August 22nd or thereabouts.

What Eaton is missing is that there is more then just a post convention bump at play here. I think that Trump's meltdown last week is just as, or even more, responsible for Clinton/s big lead.

 

[bonzombiekitty]

IT HAPPENED AGAIN! 95.4/4.6!!

I was completely kidding! Why does this keep happening?





ahem... I'd kinda like to see if it would top 98/2.

I'm more interested that the now-cast is giving South Carolina to Clinton.

 

[Stacko]

What Eaton is missing is that there is more then just a post convention bump at play here. I think that Trump's meltdown last week is just as, or even more, responsible for Clinton/s big lead.

If it was just a bump from the convention, you'd expect the lead to be narrowing by now and not expanding.

 

[Upchurch]

What Eaton is missing is that there is more then just a post convention bump at play here. I think that Trump's meltdown last week is just as, or even more, responsible for Clinton/s big lead.

If it was just a bump from the convention, you'd expect the lead to be narrowing by now and not expanding.

Clearly, the Clinton's bump is being supplemented by Trump's ongoing antics campaign. The question is how long will Trump keep it up and will the now-cast ever hit 100/0? It is theoretically possible...