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What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

acbytesla said:
I don't think that's true. I'd have to do some digging, but I read that no one leading by end of the Olympics has lost since 1960. My recollection it was that it was a tight race until the Willie Horton ads came out. And instead of responding to those ads quickly, Dukakis's campaign didn't get anything out for almost a month and that was the ball game.
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Hilited: Can we file that under meaningless statistics?
The summer Olympics are not always in July/Aug. I think four, maybe five of them since then have been held in Sep/Oct.

>Doesn't XKCD have a strip on presidential "firsts"? Ah ha.... found it.

https://xkcd.com/1122/


The "leading after the Olympics" fits right in there. I can remember the rule-of-AFL.... When the AFL wins the Super Bowl the stock market will go up. Except when it didn't, and there went that wisdom.
 
Tony Stark said:
I said before that the 538 forecast (polls only) would have Hillary at 90%+ in October, maybe September. Looks like it might hit that in August (currently at 87.5%).
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I just hope she's not peaking too early. I want to see more Trump. He has this way of driving down his own favorability ratings as only he can.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Hilited: Can we file that under meaningless statistics?
The summer Olympics are not always in July/Aug. I think four, maybe five of them since then have been held in Sep/Oct.

>Doesn't XKCD have a strip on presidential "firsts"? Ah ha.... found it.

https://xkcd.com/1122/


The "leading after the Olympics" fits right in there. I can remember the rule-of-AFL.... When the AFL wins the Super Bowl the stock market will go up. Except when it didn't, and there went that wisdom.
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OK ...call it useless. It was a quote from an article. I took it on face value. Goes to show you that I didn't study it thoroughly.
 
acbytesla said:
I just hope she's not peaking too early. I want to see more Trump. He has this way of driving down his own favorability ratings as only he can.
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He's been briefly behaved like the GOP powers that be told him to and his poll numbers are still going down. He's going to do something to get media attention over the Olympics, which have the intriguing backdrop of the Russians being villains again thanks to their doping, and he believes all press is good press.
 
Tony Stark said:
Looks like Donald was right when he said he was expanding the map. LOL
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Well, the Mormon swing could make some states interesting....

I can't see the Mormon vote giving Hillary Utah. They'll probably just swing it for "New Conservative Independent Party" or whatever they're going to run under. Maybe they hurt the down-ticket? Could Mia, Anchor Baby, Love lose? She's already positioned herself as anti-Trump, though, so that's just wishful thinking on my part.

Idaho? Huge Mormon population but I doubt there are enough Dem votes to make it possible to move ID to Hillary.

Wyoming - ditto above.

Then you get interesting.... AZ and NV are both about 6% Mormon. In close states, taking five or six points from Trump could mean Hillary carries the state. Definitely in NV.... possibly in AZ.

Then there's always.... Alaska. If I could think of a state profile of voters most likely to not like Trump but put up with him as at least being the more evil of two choices, it'd be Alaska. If the four or five per cent Mormons go one way, the clear-thinking home-schoolin' wilderness clearing libertarians go for Johnson, the remainder could put Alaska in the Dem column. Not really, but it's fun to think of.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Well, the Mormon swing could make some states interesting....

I can't see the Mormon vote giving Hillary Utah. They'll probably just swing it for "New Conservative Independent Party" or whatever they're going to run under. Maybe they hurt the down-ticket? Could Mia, Anchor Baby, Love lose? She's already positioned herself as anti-Trump, though, so that's just wishful thinking on my part.

Idaho? Huge Mormon population but I doubt there are enough Dem votes to make it possible to move ID to Hillary.

Wyoming - ditto above.

Then you get interesting.... AZ and NV are both about 6% Mormon. In close states, taking five or six points from Trump could mean Hillary carries the state. Definitely in NV.... possibly in AZ.

Then there's always.... Alaska. If I could think of a state profile of voters most likely to not like Trump but put up with him as at least being the more evil of two choices, it'd be Alaska. If the four or five per cent Mormons go one way, the clear-thinking home-schoolin' wilderness clearing libertarians go for Johnson, the remainder could put Alaska in the Dem column. Not really, but it's fun to think of.
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No way she wins Alaska. The most gun happy state by far. I'd bet on Utah, before Alaska. Arizona is possible. Sizable immigrant population that will go Clinton. I do expect AZ to start trending blue because the demographics have been changing. Besides the growing diversity there is an evolution of that retirement population away from the post ww2 boomers to the hippie generation.
 
Yeah, if Clinton wins some really red states it'll be in the Southeast. Going from little to basically zero support among African Americans actually shifts the total noticeably.
 
Stacko said:
He's been briefly behaved like the GOP powers that be told him to and his poll numbers are still going down.
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He hasn't been "behaving" for very long, though. I don't think it's had time to affect the polls.

Clearly he's been made to realize that he well and truly f'ed up with the Khan debacle, which is something of a miracle in and of itself. Someone finally shoved Trump's nose into the mess he's been leaving on the floor.

I, like most people I'm sure, doubt it'll last, though...
 
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Tony Stark said:
Bush came out ahead after the conventions and stayed there.
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This article shows a double-digit lead on July 26, but you're right that the conventions weren't until August back then, so the comparison between that election and this election isn't really apt.
 
phiwum said:
This article shows a double-digit lead on July 26, but you're right that the conventions weren't until August back then, so the comparison between that election and this election isn't really apt.
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No. The Democratic convention was in July. Part of Dukakis' lead came from a convention bounce, but he was already ahead by a bunch. This was the end of the Reagan era and a lot of people were tired of him and Bush was seen as "four more years", so the dissatisfaction was handed over to Bush. The Republicans had their convention a month after the Dems. But they'd started eating into Dukakis' lead by then.
 
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Foolmewunz said:
No. The Democratic convention was in July. Part of Dukakis' lead came from a convention bounce, but he was already ahead by a bunch. This was the end of the Reagan era and a lot of people were tired of him and Bush was seen as "four more years", so the dissatisfaction was handed over to Bush. The Republicans had their convention a month after the Dems. But they'd started eating into Dukakis' lead by then.
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Thanks for the correction.

I had only heard about Dukakis's late lead on local public radio. Didn't take the time to look into it before raising it here.
 
Tony Stark said:
Sad!

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...on-opens-double-digit-lead-over-trump-n625676
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I particularly like that Trump's lead with men has taken a nosedive. His 16 point lead is now only 5. And Hillary has expanded her lead among women by 10 points, now a staggering 24.

How can Trump turn it around? Especially that he is now facing the news dead zone of the Olympics. My guess is they might be the best two weeks of his campaign. It might help to slow the bleeding if the crazy guy stopped making news.

The only way that I can see that Trump turns it around is through the debates. But even that is extremely unlikely. Not only will he have to be a totally different person he's going to have to study like he's never studied before.
 
acbytesla said:
I particularly like that Trump's lead with men has taken a nosedive. His 16 point lead is now only 5. And Hillary has expanded her lead among women by 10 points, now a staggering 24.

How can Trump turn it around? Especially that he is now facing the news dead zone of the Olympics. My guess is they might be the best two weeks of his campaign. It might help to slow the bleeding if the crazy guy stopped making news.

The only way that I can see that Trump turns it around is through the debates. But even that is extremely unlikely. Not only will he have to be a totally different person he's going to have to study like he's never studied before.
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The only way he wins is if some extraordinary event(s) turns things to his favor.
 
Tony Stark said:
The only way he wins is if some extraordinary event(s) turns things to his favor.
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The most dramatic would be an assassination attempt, whether real or staged. I can't see a real one coming from the Dems at this point, nor from the far/lunatic Right (they support him); it would more likely be from somewhere in the Cruz - Rubio part of the spectrum that wants to "save" the GOP.

A staged attempt would be something fun to discuss. Is it something even a desperate Donald would consider?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk
 
Beady said:
The most dramatic would be an assassination attempt, whether real or staged. I can't see a real one coming from the Dems at this point, nor from the far/lunatic Right (they support him); it would more likely be from somewhere in the Cruz - Rubio part of the spectrum that wants to "save" the GOP.

A staged attempt would be something fun to discuss. Is it something even a desperate Donald would consider?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk
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Someone would spill the beans. Plus Donald's campaign has not demonstrated the competence to pull that off. They can't even keep him on message.

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