What happens to Egypt if Mubarak falls?

andyandy

anthropomorphic ape
andyandy
Joined
Apr 30, 2006
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I've always understood that the us and uk have implicitly supported Mubarak because they see him as a secular ally who is preferable to more overtly religious alternatives. How accurate is this? Why have we so happily embraced a repressive dictator - it's not like the gulf where we turn the other way because of oil, so is it simply in terms of a secular bulwark against more religious or nationalist alternative? And if this is the rationale, how accurate is this belief? How are our own interests best served? And what is the likely outcome of the current unrest?

Discuss :)
 
If many are to be believed, the Muslim Brotherhood take over. However, if this very good article from TIME is correct, the threat is not so much.
 
andyandy said:
...Why have we so happily embraced a repressive dictator - ...
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Because we have long embraced the "He's a sonofabitch, but he's our sonofabitch!" mentality. We prop up scumbags, murderers, theives, etc. in the name of democracy, but it's really to ensure the continued flow of oil, gas, minerals, etc. from third world countries. We need to keep them in power to keep the raw materials flowing in our direction, as well as protecting the existence and interests of the albatross around our necks, Israel.

If real democracy were to take hold and flourish throughout the world, the U.S. would probably collapse.
 
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I wonder what the Middle East would look like today if the USA & USSR/Russia didn't have a nasty habit of supporting dictators.
 
andyandy said:
I've always understood that the us and uk have implicitly supported Mubarak because they see him as a secular ally who is preferable to more overtly religious alternatives. How accurate is this? Why have we so happily embraced a repressive dictator - it's not like the gulf where we turn the other way because of oil, so is it simply in terms of a secular bulwark against more religious or nationalist alternative? And if this is the rationale, how accurate is this belief? How are our own interests best served? And what is the likely outcome of the current unrest?

Discuss :)
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U.S. success in pulling Egypt away from the Soviet Union during Sadat's rule ended the serial wars between Egypt and Israel. The foreign aid to Egypt was the price the U.S. had to pay.

Mubarak was Sadat's vice president when Sadat was brutally murdered. Mubarak took over, maintained stability, and continued Sadat's peaceful policies.

I have no idea why all this is being spun the way the whack-a-mole disinformer of the day is spinning it. It's just plain geopolitics and diplomacy, aimed at maintaining stability. No need to get all chimpy over it.
 
shemp said:
Because we have long embraced the "He's a sonofabitch, but he's our sonofabitch!" mentality. We prop up scumbags, murderers, theives, etc. in the name of democracy, but it's really to ensure the continued flow of oil, gas, minerals, etc. from third world countries. We need to keep them in power to keep the raw materials flowing in our direction, as well as protecting the existence and interests of the albatross around our necks, Israel.

If real democracy were to take hold and flourish throughout the world, the U.S. would probably collapse.
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A few problems with your simplistic, and propagandistic analysis. Egypt doesn't have oil and the US gets most of its oil from Canada. If Egypt had oil it wouldn't be poor.

The idea was that the Middle East was unstable and the Arab states didn't get along, so allying with all the governments would keep the peace since any aggression would be deterred by a US security guarantee. Once allied then diplomatic pressure could be used to ease in reforms. It's not that outlandish an idea, you might not agree with it but you'll need something better than "ZOMG AmeriKKKa is taking all their oil!111!!!"

Yes oil is important and factors into the equation. Given that the world runs on it you'd better hope that America factors in oil.
 
Isn't the government of Egypt of the parliamentary style, with political sectors aligning with those they agree with, and the majority becoming the rulers, until their coalition collapses?
Is there a popular party/figure that could form a majority coalition?
 
Virus said:
The idea was that the Middle East was unstable and the Arab states didn't get along, so allying with all the governments would keep the peace since any aggression would be deterred by a US security guarantee. Once allied then diplomatic pressure could be used to ease in reforms. It's not that outlandish an idea, you might not agree with it but you'll need something better than "ZOMG AmeriKKKa is taking all their oil!111!!!"
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Unfortunately, that is in fact all he needs to have monkeys throughout the forest echoing his caterwaul.

I don't call it monkeyworld for nothing.;)
 
Virus said:
A few problems with your simplistic, and propagandistic analysis. Egypt doesn't have oil and the US gets most of its oil from Canada. If Egypt had oil it wouldn't be poor.

The idea was that the Middle East was unstable and the Arab states didn't get along, so allying with all the governments would keep the peace since any aggression would be deterred by a US security guarantee. Once allied then diplomatic pressure could be used to ease in reforms. It's not that outlandish an idea, you might not agree with it but you'll need something better than "ZOMG AmeriKKKa is taking all their oil!111!!!"

Yes oil is important and factors into the equation. Given that the world runs on it you'd better hope that America factors in oil.
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Yeah - cause that ditch that runs through the place is worthless :boggled:
 
Well if Mubarak falls, hopefully the people gets what they want. Whatever that is..

AFAIK they just want to get rid of Mubarak, but it does not seem like they have thought about what should happen afterwards. Well, we can only hope something good will come out of this.

Stop the fearmongering and bickering and let history unfold.. It's not like we can do anything about it.
 
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Latest word from the Opposition leader: They'd like the US to act.

Bad idea. As Shemp pointed out, the notion of "He's our sonofabitch" has played long and hard, and it's what got us into this mess in the first place. Perhaps the best thing we can do is urge genuinely democratic reforms, and accept the choices the Egyptian people make. And if that's for an Islamic government, that might be for the best in the long run. It's not what I'd like, but at this point, any further American interference might do more harm than good.
 
MG1962 said:
Yeah - cause that ditch that runs through the place is worthless :boggled:
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Unlike your incredibly clumsy non-sequitur spin attempt, "that ditch" is quite valuable to the entire world. All the more reason to keep peace in the region. You know, in addition to the general, uh...peacefulness...of peace. Which many people find...peaceful.
 
Egyptian government, business and well everything is built upon a "it's who you know" network. One hand washes the other washes the other.... This tends to exclude large swaths of people.

I hope they get what they want and few people are hurt in the process.

Regardless of what happens, the US will get blamed for something.
 
Toontown said:
Unlike your incredibly clumsy non-sequitur spin attempt, "that ditch" is quite valuable to the entire world. All the more reason to keep peace in the region. You know, in addition to the general, uh...peacefulness...of peace. Which many people find...peaceful.
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Either you dont actually know what non-sequitur means or you are not following the debate

Virus contends why is Egypt valuable to the US cause all the US cares about is oil and Egypt has none.

The US gets free unimpeded use of the Canal (read 1.3 billon dollars of aid as free) The US is not the first country to bend over and spread it's cheeks for the canal, I doubt it will be the last
 
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