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US/Canada Trade War ?

skyeagle409 said:
It's all just the beginning. Trump has proven to the whole world in less than 100 days that he is unfit to be president, which isn't surprising considering the Trump has the honor of being president with the lowest approval rating of any new president. I wonder why Trump doesn't brag about having the lowest approval rating of any new president.

Now, Trump has back-stepped on the border wall. How hilarious!!
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Yes yes, lowest approval, unfit, yes yes. But he'll still be president in spite of all the whining from leftists. ;)

The one you voted for lost, he won, so sad.
 
logger said:
Yes it is that cut and dry. The stumpage price is by far the largest portion.
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Why would you make something up like that when it is trivially easy to show that it is wrong?

The monthly price data is posted for anyone to download as an Excel file. :rolleyes:

In many cases the Stumpage is around 50%.

The breakdown varies considerably by product and can be as low $0.00 for the Stumpage, with the entire cost being made up of surcharges.
 
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logger said:
And do those jobs will be replaced by people who go to work for the natural gas industry. See how that works? And magically Trump, takes the credit. ;)
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Trump has made a mockery of himself over his plan for coal jobs. It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Trump was ignorant of the advantages of natural gas over coal, otherwise he wouldn't have made a clown of himself by pushing his highly flawed plan for coal jobs.
 
logger said:
Yes yes, lowest approval, unfit, yes yes. But he'll still be president in spite of all the whining from leftists. ;)
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Trump with the lowest approval rating of any new president, not to mention that Hillary got about 2.9 million more votes than Trump. Now that he is in office due to the highly flawed EC, he has been making a laughing stock of himself lately, which I predicted after the election. I wonder if he found out where the aircraft carrier, USS Carl Vinson is. It is also apparent that Trump doesn't know what an armada is either.

Trump would make more points if he would just keep his mouth shut rather than spewing his ignorance to the whole world.
 
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logger said:
Actually it will not cause layoffs. Lumber has been about the same price for decades. It could use a small uptick.
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In what fantasy world has softwood been trading at "about the same price for decades"??!!

Do you just not know that this is completely wrong or are you trying to pull an argument from authority as the forum's honorary timber baron? The fluctuations in prices since 1990 have been anywhere from +/- 0 up to +250% and everywhere in between.
 
Foolmewunz said:
In what fantasy world has softwood been trading at "about the same price for decades"??!!

Do you just not know that this is completely wrong or are you trying to pull an argument from authority as the forum's honorary timber baron? The fluctuations in prices since 1990 have been anywhere from +/- 0 up to +250% and everywhere in between.
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And if softwood was trading at the same rate.. Then why bother to slap tariffs on Canadian Softwood? Canadian Softwood is desirable, because it's less expensive. If builders have to buy more expensive wood, then yes, prices will go up, and the building industry will lose jobs.
 
Foolmewunz said:
In what fantasy world has softwood been trading at "about the same price for decades"??!!

Do you just not know that this is completely wrong or are you trying to pull an argument from authority as the forum's honorary timber baron? The fluctuations in prices since 1990 have been anywhere from +/- 0 up to +250% and everywhere in between.
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Yes fluctuations. Lumber prices aren't causing higher homes prices and probably never will if managed correctly. Hardwood is also the been pretty much the same. Certainly goes up and down but not a sustained lasting increase.
 
Shalamar said:
And if softwood was trading at the same rate.. Then why bother to slap tariffs on Canadian Softwood?
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Good lord, I'm talking about end prices in the US.
Canadian Softwood is desirable, because it's less expensive. If builders have to buy more expensive wood, then yes, prices will go up, and the building industry will lose jobs.[/QUOTE]

Its only less expensive because the Canadians are subsidizing it. And no the building industry will not lose jobs from small needed increases in lumber. Its a good bet that prices will go up in the short term but come back down when they meet market demand.
 
logger said:
Yes fluctuations. Lumber prices aren't causing higher homes prices and probably never will if managed correctly. Hardwood is also the been pretty much the same. Certainly goes up and down but not a sustained lasting increase.
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Let's take a look here.


Trump’s Canadian lumber tariff could cost US homebuyers about $1,200 per house

The NAHB estimates the new duty will increase the price of an average single-family home by $1,236.

It takes a lot of lumber to build a house, and the price of that wood is going way up.

A new duty imposed by the U.S. Commerce Department on Canadian softwood lumber is designed to level the playing field between Canadian and U.S. lumber producers, and just the anticipation of it has pushed lumber prices higher by about 22 percent since the start of this year.

The Trump administration argues that government subsidies for Canadian lumber are unfair. It's great for U.S. lumber producers, not so great for U.S. homebuilders, who inevitably pay the price.

"NAHB is deeply disappointed in this short-sighted action by the U.S. Department of Commerce that will ultimately do nothing to resolve issues causing the U.S.-Canadian lumber trade dispute but will negatively harm American consumers and housing affordability," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a homebuilder and developer from Kerrville, Texas.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/25/trum...riff-could-cost-us-homebuyers-about-1200.html
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logger said:
Yes fluctuations. Lumber prices aren't causing higher homes prices and probably never will if managed correctly. Hardwood is also the been pretty much the same. Certainly goes up and down but not a sustained lasting increase.
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You said the lumber prices were relatively the same. They're not. An increase of $250/mbf and then a drop of $100 is not "the same". The prices have been all over the chart for the past three decades, not in the least stable.

But if you want to move the goalposts and talk about the cost relative to a new home, then you can take the view of one of the builders' groups, who calculate that a $1300 to $3000 (differing estimates) increase will knock 150,000 first-time (starter homes, as they're called) buyers out of the market. Are those the "little guys" your Trumpy-Wumpy is working for? Or the shapers and light construction workers who won't be building those houses? Aren't those the salt-of-the-earth types you pretend to be a part of?

But, hey! Weyerhauser and Georgia Pacific will have better dividends. That's what's important. Amirite?
 
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logger said:
Its only less expensive because the Canadians are subsidizing it.
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Well that's the allegation but IMO it's yet to be proved. If Canada is charging loggers less is it because they are subsidising or is the US overcharging ?

logger said:
And no the building industry will not lose jobs from small needed increases in lumber.
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An increase in costs will lead to a drop in demand. FMW has indicated that an industry group indicates that demand may drop by at least 150k houses. That means fewer construction jobs.

logger said:
Its a good bet that prices will go up in the short term but come back down when they meet market demand.
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How ?

Unless the logging/lumber industry is overcharging its customers, there's no way they can return to current price levels. Put another way, if the US could compete at this price level they already would be.
 
Oh so now logger doesn't believe in the invisible hand of the free market when dear leader is interfering with it on his behalf. :rolleyes:
 
The Don said:
Well that's the allegation but IMO it's yet to be proved. If Canada is charging loggers less is it because they are subsidising or is the US overcharging ?
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The US has already lost this battle twice. It's not a subsidy so it has been proved.
 
logger said:
Its only less expensive because the Canadians are subsidizing it. And no the building industry will not lose jobs from small needed increases in lumber. Its a good bet that prices will go up in the short term but come back down when they meet market demand.
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There are no subsidies. The reason trump is picking on Canada is because he desperately needs a tick in the win column and he sees Canada as an easy mark.

I hope my government will realise having so many of our eggs in the US basket can be detrimental to our economy in the instance of a really bad US president. If anything trump has shown is we need to strengthen economic bonds with other trading partners and lessen economic bonds with the US.
 
Tony Stark said:
Oh so now logger doesn't believe in the invisible hand of the free market when dear leader is interfering with it on his behalf. :rolleyes:
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Yes, there are lots of the 'small government*' proponents.

*Except if it directly affects me and then I want everything the government can bring to bear to help me.
 
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