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UK - Election 2015

May have already been asked on the thread, but how come you lot vote on a week day and not a saturday when most people are off work?
 
And, BTW, that Exit poll would also meet my prediction of a second Con/LibDem coalition, this time with a very dominant Conservative strand.

Maybe I should be in political analysis.......... ;)
 
Lordy, that first exit poll has the Tories on 316 and Labour on only 239. How, HOW can Labour have collapsed so badly?
 
cullennz said:
May have already been asked on the thread, but how come you lot vote on a week day and not a saturday when most people are off work?
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It was from when wealthy people (who were the only ones who could vote anyhow at that time) used to disperse to the countryside at weekends.

And tradition has stuck
 
GlennB said:
Hard to believe. We shall see, but if it's that severe it'll be the end of Miliband.
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I've heard people for weeks predict a repeat in some sense of 1992, which I took to mean a narrow surprise Conservative victory, rather than a win for John Major.
 
BTW, the Exit poll predicts 2 seats for Ukip (chalk up another correct prediction from yours truly :D). MikeG has undoubtedly won his bet.
 
LondonJohn said:
BBC exit poll:

Con 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
LibDem 10
Ukip 2
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GlennB said:
Hard to believe. We shall see, but if it's that severe it'll be the end of Miliband.
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Welp.

Those are figures I cannot remember seeing at any point during these last few weeks. Miliband would be toast, and Clegg would be the first depPM fired by his party?^^

SNP total still high, I cannot see where all these 50+ figures are coming from - there are massive constituent variations and massive swings to overcome in certain seats and I fully expect some to be held. Expect 40-46.

Did my seven hours on the door, my first time, and the hours flew past in the bitter cold. Had to text the wife to get me an extra layer and some gloves :). Spend three hours chatting to a lovely Labour polling agent, who as it turns out is one of my wife's best friends father-in-law. Small world.
 
GlennB said:
Hard to believe. We shall see, but if it's that severe it'll be the end of Ed Miliband.
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FTFY. :)

cullennz said:
May have already been asked on the thread, but how come you lot vote on a week day and not a saturday when most people are off work?
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I thought most countries voted on a Sunday, actually. The Netherlands doesn't because it's a Christian country, or some such.

LondonJohn said:
And, BTW, that Exit poll would also meet my prediction of a second Con/LibDem coalition, this time with a very dominant Conservative strand.
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Or a Conservative minority government. Throw 100 million at NI and the DUP will support you. That's chump change.
 
GlennB said:
Hard to believe. We shall see, but if it's that severe it'll be the end of Miliband.
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Exit polls are now extremely accurate (for reasons that can be expanded upon but not right here right now)

The first 10-15 actual declarations will prove just how accurate the exit poll is. After those first 15-20 declarations, it will be possible to call the final result with something greater than 95% accuracy.

I predict that Ed Miliband will be gone by the day after tomorrow (as in, he'll announce his intention to stand down as Labour leader and will spark a leadership election. His election to leadership was the worst decision the Labour party has made since Michael Foot's time. History will show that his personal effect was very probably the decisive factor in Labour's poor performance in this election.

(As a slight aside, I wonder whether Labour will change its electoral college system for the next leadership election, in order to prevent the type of union stitch-up that enabled Ed Miliband to hijack the 2010 leadership election.....)
 
cullennz said:
May have already been asked on the thread, but how come you lot vote on a week day and not a saturday when most people are off work?
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Tradition, originating from the time when towns held Market Days on Thursdays. Elections can be held on other days (in 1978 an election was moved from Thursday to Wednesday to accommodate a football match), but now there's a statute that sets the election on a Thursday. Many people try to get the next day off work so they can stay up all night to see just how messed up the country will be for the next five years. Counting is done manually overnight.

Polls are open from 07.00 to 22.00 so most people can find time to vote, even if they are working (and one can of course vote by post or via a proxy).
 
LondonJohn said:
Two words:

SNP
Miliband

It really is that simple.
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Well, no. Even with Lab heartlands in Scotland intact at 41, they still would only be on 280. This would be a collapse on Miliband failing to enthuse voters outside Scotland.

So, one word. Miliband.

(I still don't believe the poll, it's stunned me!).
 
malicus said:
Welp.

Those are figures I cannot remember seeing at any point during these last few weeks. Miliband would be toast, and Clegg would be the first depPM fired by his party?^^
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*Ahem*

LondonJohn's prediction, 1st May:

Conservative: 315
Labour: 270
SNP: 40
LibDem: 12
Others: 13

:D
 
Pantsdown making a fool of himself on BBC right now :D

I look forward to seeing him literally eating his hat some time later tonight......
 
LondonJohn said:
*Ahem*

LondonJohn's prediction, 1st May:

Conservative: 315
Labour: 270
SNP: 40
LibDem: 12
Others: 13

:D
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I see you got the Tory-LibDem majority coalition correct! More surprised at the Lab collapse. 239???

8/10. I'm a harsh marker.
 
malicus said:
I see you got the Tory-LibDem majority coalition correct! More surprised at the Lab collapse. 239???

8/10. I'm a harsh marker.
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:D

Yes, I did underestimate the extraordinary (apparent) swing to SNP in Scotland. Jim Murphy will be toast as well (in seat terms as well as leadership terms).

Incidentally, to add to the Exit Poll Reliability issue, it's worth remembering that the broadcasters now club together to do a joint exit poll. This means that the sample size is increased, leading to much greater statistical significance. In addition, there's the underlying factor that this is the first poll where people are asked who they've actually just voted for - and not who they "intend" to vote for, plus it (obviously) automatically adjusts for turnout patterns vs voting preferences and other such factors.

In short, the exit poll will be without doubt accurate enough for us to know, right now, that the Conservatives will win by far the most seats, but almost certainly not enough to guarantee a 326+ majority. It also allows us to guess that tomorrow morning, Cameron's people and Clegg's people will sit down and conduct a fairly short negotiation for a new coalition. And Ed Miliband will without doubt be out of a job (in principle) by the weekend.
 
I've switched from C4 to BBC1, and Harriet Harman seems to be accepting the exit poll as roughly right. Plenty of spin, but this must be the end for Ed if the poll is anywhere close to accurate.

I hope Nick Clegg has held his seat but with a predicted number of LibDem seats of only 12, I would not put my shirt on him being an MP in the morning.

Derbyshire North East (where I live) had a Lab majority of 2445 (5.2%) in the last election, so it won't take much of a swing to turn it Tory.
 
Sounds like this was definently a "Hold Your Nose And Vote" election.
Interesting to see whan the SNP does. If they push for a second referendum or go the Parti Qubecois route of thereatening to do so in hopes of getting more consessions and goodies for Scotland.
 
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