• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

UK - Election 2015

Darat said:
Sad, i just hope when the real pain begins to hit folk will remember it was self inflicted.
Click to expand...



Yes: the people would be far better off if their government were decided for them, rather than by them :D

(At the risk of Godwinning the thread.................. ;) )
 
LondonJohn said:
Either 8 or 9. But that would put things right on the margin.

It's possible. But I still suspect that Cameron would prefer to deal with the LibDems (provided they have enough seats), since a) he knows they can work together already, b) he knows the public is comfortable with a ConDem coalition, c) he can turn the screw a little on Clegg given the shift in power balance (based on seat numbers), and d) the LibDems have a much greater national footprint than the DUP.
Click to expand...

OTOH, the LibDems might not be comfortable with another coalition. They might want to lick their wounds, regroup, and not want to be the whipping boy of the Tories when they are in no position to influence a tiny bit and only serve as voting fodder.

And have they lost another deposit in Sunderland Central?
 
ddt said:
OTOH, the LibDems might not be comfortable with another coalition. They might want to lick their wounds, regroup, and not want to be the whipping boy of the Tories when they are in no position to influence a tiny bit and only serve as voting fodder.

And have they lost another deposit in Sunderland Central?
Click to expand...


Ooooh, that whiff of power has an amazingly seductive aroma............................

I would be pretty confident that if results are anything like the exit poll, and if the LibDems are offered even a very junior role in a coalition, they (the LibDems) will be rather eager to jump in.
 
ddt said:
OTOH, the LibDems might not be comfortable with another coalition. They might want to lick their wounds, regroup, and not want to be the whipping boy of the Tories when they are in no position to influence a tiny bit and only serve as voting fodder.

And have they lost another deposit in Sunderland Central?
Click to expand...
Looks like it, they've lost 14.3% of the vote and is down to 2.6%. Lord Ashdown may need to ring a baker or something if this keeps up, as I do believe a marzipan hat was mentioned earlier this evening.
 
LondonJohn said:
Either 8 or 9. But that would put things right on the margin.

It's possible. But I still suspect that Cameron would prefer to deal with the LibDems (provided they have enough seats), since a) he knows they can work together already, b) he knows the public is comfortable with a ConDem coalition, c) he can turn the screw a little on Clegg given the shift in power balance (based on seat numbers), and d) the LibDems have a much greater national footprint than the DUP.
Click to expand...

316+8=324 which is over the line. And I hear that exit polls are very accurate these days.
 
LondonJohn said:
Either 8 or 9. But that would put things right on the margin.

It's possible. But I still suspect that Cameron would prefer to deal with the LibDems (provided they have enough seats), since a) he knows they can work together already, b) he knows the public is comfortable with a ConDem coalition, c) he can turn the screw a little on Clegg given the shift in power balance (based on seat numbers), and d) the LibDems have a much greater national footprint than the DUP.
Click to expand...

Yeah, after winging about the Labour teaming up with a regional party like the SNP it might look odd* for the Conservatives to govern the UK based on support from the DUP.



* Not that looking odd would trouble any politician who saw a chance to get into No. 10.
 
angrysoba said:
316+8=324 which is over the line. And I hear that exit polls are very accurate these days.
Click to expand...


Well, it's over the in-practice line, but not the in-principle line. And that distinction could become subject to a lot of debate.

Also, when I say that exit polls are very accurate (in terms of seat count), I mean that they can be north of 99% accurate - but that still implies that the actual Conservative seat number might be anywhere between 310 and 320, for example.
 
Ooh, "sources on the ground" in Thanet suggest Farage may have lost. That would be worth a glass of fizz!

(I'm pouring a glass of fizz right now in anticipation)
 
Last edited:
And there goes another LibDem deposit in Sunderland West.
 
LondonJohn said:
Ooooh, that whiff of power has an amazingly seductive aroma............................

I would be pretty confident that if results are anything like the exit poll, and if the LibDems are offered even a very junior role in a coalition, they (the LibDems) will be rather eager to jump in.
Click to expand...
Over here, political tradition is quite different. Parties that are thrashed so thoroughly tend to skulk away into opposition unless other coalition probes have failed.

Agatha said:
Yes - they need 5% of the total vote to keep their deposit and they had 2.6%
Click to expand...
I was aware of that, a rhetorical question. And another deposit lost in Sunderland West.
 
LondonJohn said:
Well, it's over the in-practice line, but not the in-principle line. And that distinction could become subject to a lot of debate.

Also, when I say that exit polls are very accurate (in terms of seat count), I mean that they can be north of 99% accurate - but that still implies that the actual Conservative seat number might be anywhere between 310 and 320, for example.
Click to expand...

If the Tories are lucky maybe the IRA will win the other NI seats.
 
Agatha said:
Ooh, "sources on the ground" in Thanet suggest Farage may have lost. That would be worth a glass of fizz!

(I'm pouring a glass of fizz right now in anticipation)
Click to expand...

Oh no, my avatar! That's gonna be an all-nighter.
 
So far Labour vote up 3.9% Tory Vote down 4.3%

Obviously only 3 constituencies but against exit polls forecast.

If there is a swing to the Tories it is not in the North East. Along with the SNP forecast it suggests different regional swings rather than a simple national one.
 
Lothian said:
So far Labour vote up 3.9% Tory Vote down 4.3%

Obviously only 3 constituencies but against exit polls forecast.

If there is a swing to the Tories it is not in the North East. Along with the SNP forecast it suggests different regional swings rather than a simple national one.
Click to expand...

I think Thatcher's second election resulted in more seats from a reduced vote so the popular vote itself is not the important figure. Besides much of the loss for Labour will happen in Scotland. Not sure where the increased Tory seats are supposed to come from though.
 
Lothian said:
So far Labour vote up 3.9% Tory Vote down 4.3%

Obviously only 3 constituencies but against exit polls forecast.

If there is a swing to the Tories it is not in the North East. Along with the SNP forecast it suggests different regional swings rather than a simple national one.
Click to expand...


The exit polls focus almost exclusively on the top 100-120 marginal seats, which is where elections are entirely won and lost.

There were real people standing outside polling booths in those constituencies, gathering real data on how real people had actually just voted. Therefore the outcomes in these marginals can be predicted with high statistical significance.

By contrast, for example, the first constituency to declare - Houghton and Sunderland South - was the 136th-safest seat in the whole country in 2010 (or the 514th-most-marginal). It was, and is, irrelevant for pollsters who are trying to call the election result.
 
Giz said:
Yeah, after winging about the Labour teaming up with a regional party like the SNP it might look odd* for the Conservatives to govern the UK based on support from the DUP.



* Not that looking odd would trouble any politician who saw a chance to get into No. 10.
Click to expand...
I'll help them with the argument: the Tories (and Labour and LibDem) do stand with candidates in Scotland, but not in Northern Ireland. That's a crucial difference. The Tories could claim the DUP is sort-of their sister party (well, the UUP is, but who minds such details?).

angrysoba said:
If the Tories are lucky maybe the IRA will win the other NI seats.
Click to expand...
Now, now, you're not saying they're terrorists, are you? :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom