UK - Election 2015

[Information Analyst]

In light of your £3500+ error in the amount it has been raised, perhaps you'd like to revisit this paragraph.

No, I was talking about the most recent rise, which should have been clear enough from what I said. You wanting to move the goalposts isn't my "error." But if you want to play that game, do I think paying what now amounts to under £70 less tax per month somehow makes *********** over people on benefits worthwhile, then no, I don't. That's quite apart from the fact that I'm not actually getting £70 "extra" a month, given that I'm paying more in pension contributions. Not to mention bumping VAT to 20%.

Personally, I think we'd be better off all round if employers paid decent wages at the lower end of the scale, rather than a Tory-led government compensating for their own mates' greed through the tax and benefit system.

 

[Seismosaurus]

Interesting to see whan the SNP does. If they push for a second referendum or go the Parti Qubecois route of thereatening to do so in hopes of getting more consessions and goodies for Scotland.

That would be extremely interesting, given that Ms Sturgeon has stated that even winning every seat in Scotland would not give a mandate to have another referendum.

 

[LondonJohn]

I've switched from C4 to BBC1, and Harriet Harman seems to be accepting the exit poll as roughly right. Plenty of spin, but this must be the end for Ed if the poll is anywhere close to accurate.

I hope Nick Clegg has held his seat but with a predicted number of LibDem seats of only 12, I would not put my shirt on him being an MP in the morning.

Derbyshire North East (where I live) had a Lab majority of 2445 (5.2%) in the last election, so it won't take much of a swing to turn it Tory.

The party machinery and politicians know how accurate the exit polls are these days. It's all about damage control for Labour now.

That's what made Ashdown's performance on the BBC so ludicrous. He ought to be well enough plugged into the politican machine to know that the exit poll is extremely likely to be very, very close to correct. I look forward to seeing him eat his hat.

And of course we also have the unedifying spectacle of pollsters such as Peter Kellner on the BBC thrashing around trying to explain how he and his ilk got things so spectacularly wrong yet again with their pre-election opinion polls. It's actually hilarious watching them trying to rationalise the situation. They can talk all day about the extremely complex mathematical algorithms they apply to the raw data etc etc, but they are STILL getting the most important factors simply wrong - and wrong in a huge way.

 

[Information Analyst]

Lordy, that first exit poll has the Tories on 316 and Labour on only 239. How, HOW can Labour have collapsed so badly?

The clear bias of the UK press is obviously a factor.

 

[Agatha]

And of course we also have the unedifying spectacle of pollsters such as Peter Kellner on the BBC thrashing around trying to explain how he and his ilk got things so spectacularly wrong yet again with their pre-election opinion polls. It's actually hilarious watching them trying to rationalise the situation. They can talk all day about the extremely complex mathematical algorithms they apply to the raw data etc etc, but they are STILL getting the most important factors simply wrong - and wrong in a huge way.

Peter Kellner's performance was utterly embarrassing just now.

Paul Nuttall, deputy leader of UKIP is now talking up UKIP's chances of getting 3 or more seats (no). I hope Farage crashes and burns in Thanet. And now he's talking about the end of FPTP - if the exit polls are correct then no way on earth would the Tories agree to moving towards PR, it would be the end of power for them.

 

[LondonJohn]

Sounds like this was definently a "Hold Your Nose And Vote" election.

I disagree. Firstly, take out all the entrenched voters (who make up some 85% of all voters) - these voters always vote the same way, regardless. Then look at the remaining 15% of swing/floating voters. Then look at the proportion of those who can potentially make a difference in marginal constituencies. It's those who are the only people who really matter.

And for those people, I believe the overriding thought process went as follows: "Only Cameron or Miliband can be the next PM. Can I envision Miliband as my PM? No. Can I envisage Cameron continuing as PM? Yes. I'm voting Conservative."

I think everyone - from the media to the pollsters to the Westminster Village itself - massively underestimated the negative factor of Ed Miliband.

Interesting to see whan the SNP does. If they push for a second referendum or go the Parti Qubecois route of thereatening to do so in hopes of getting more consessions and goodies for Scotland.

Yes. They won't have any significant power in Westminster, but can now lay claim to being a virtual dictatorship in Scotland

(Mind you, Labour have, for example, long controlled all layers of government in places such as Greater Manchester, and the Tories have done so in places such as Beaconsfield. That's local democracy, comrade )

 

[angrysoba]

Wow! That's unexpected. SNP could sweep all of Scotland except one seat? Which one? Orkney?

ddt raised an interesting possibility of the Tories forming a coalition of sorts with the DUP. I wonder why NI elections receive almost no coverage.

As for Lib Dems, if Clegg goes who would be their parliamentary leader? Vince Cable?

 

[Giz]

The clear bias of the UK press is obviously a factor.

You mean the left-leaning press such as the BBC and Guardian who didn't want to accept what a liability Ed Miliband was, and therefore under-estimated the extent that voters would jump off the milibandwagon rather than see him as PM?

 

[LondonJohn]

Some rumours going round that the Conservatives might have ousted Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood - he only had a 2.3% majority in 2010.

Now THAT would be amusing - even more so than Patten and Portillo put together

 

[anglolawyer]

I will cheer the end of Balls.

First actual result not in line with the exit poll ...

 

[LondonJohn]

Wow! That's unexpected. SNP could sweep all of Scotland except one seat? Which one? Orkney?

ddt raised an interesting possibility of the Tories forming a coalition of sorts with the DUP. I wonder why NI elections receive almost no coverage.

As for Lib Dems, if Clegg goes who would be their parliamentary leader? Vince Cable?

DUP probably won't gain enough seats to push the Conservatives over the winning post anyhow.

Interestingly, if the actual results are close to the exit poll, then the issue of what constitutes a Westminster majority might become extremely relevant. The issue is that Sinn Fein refuses to take up its seats in Westminster. Since it usually returns 5 MPs, this means that the maximum number of MPs sitting in Westminster is actually 645 rather than 650 - meaning that 323 (rather than 326) would guarantee a majority in practice.

And that difference might just become pretty important with the sorts of numbers we're looking at right now...........

 

[p0lka]

The clear bias of the UK press is obviously a factor.

This, plus the snp taking all the labour votes north of the border.
I think milliband shot himself in the foot when he said he wouldn't do a deal with them,

 

[Agatha]

LibDems lose their deposit in Houghton & Sunderland South. That's not a collapse, it's a rout.

 

[LondonJohn]

I will cheer the end of Balls.

First actual result not in line with the exit poll ...

When you get to 2nd and 3rd parties in a safe seat, the poll becomes statistically somewhat moot.

Where it matters is in the marginal seats. The exit polls will have sampled large (and statistically significant) numbers in all the main marginals. I doubt Sunderland South was even sampled - it's worthless to pollsters.

The exit poll will prove to be pretty accurate.

 

[p0lka]

fingers crossed then

 

[angrysoba]

DUP probably won't gain enough seats to push the Conservatives over the winning post anyhow.

Interestingly, if the actual results are close to the exit poll, then the issue of what constitutes a Westminster majority might become extremely relevant. The issue is that Sinn Fein refuses to take up its seats in Westminster. Since it usually returns 5 MPs, this means that the maximum number of MPs sitting in Westminster is actually 645 rather than 650 - meaning that 323 (rather than 326) would guarantee a majority in practice.

And that difference might just become pretty important with the sorts of numbers we're looking at right now...........

Aren't the DUP expected to win nine seats?

 

[Information Analyst]

You mean the left-leaning press such as the BBC and Guardian who didn't want to accept what a liability Ed Miliband was, and therefore under-estimated the extent that voters would jump off the milibandwagon rather than see him as PM?

No, I mean virtually every newspaper squealing with horror at the prospect of their over-privliged Bullingdon thug mate Cameron not staying in charge, and fixating on Milliband's apparent inability to eat a bacon sandwich instead. Hmmm... member of elitist drinking club with questionable reputation, and the occasional problem with a sarnie... who would have thought the latter would make a better story?

 

[ddt]

Wow! That's unexpected. SNP could sweep all of Scotland except one seat? Which one? Orkney?

Wasn't said. The exit poll was a national estimate, and not detailed per constituency. But Orkneys & Shetlands is the only Scottish constituency where the news that it isn't cool anymore to LibDem hasn't reached yet.

ddt raised an interesting possibility of the Tories forming a coalition of sorts with the DUP. I wonder why NI elections receive almost no coverage.

Good question. Because they don't participate in government anyway? Or because STV is too difficult?

DUP probably won't gain enough seats to push the Conservatives over the winning post anyhow.

Interestingly, if the actual results are close to the exit poll, then the issue of what constitutes a Westminster majority might become extremely relevant. The issue is that Sinn Fein refuses to take up its seats in Westminster. Since it usually returns 5 MPs, this means that the maximum number of MPs sitting in Westminster is actually 645 rather than 650 - meaning that 323 (rather than 326) would guarantee a majority in practice.

And that difference might just become pretty important with the sorts of numbers we're looking at right now...........

Indeed. The exit poll had Tories at 316, DUP at 8. Together that's a working majority.

 

[Darat]

Sad, i just hope when the real pain begins to hit folk will remember it was self inflicted.

 

[LondonJohn]

Aren't the DUP expected to win nine seats?

Either 8 or 9. But that would put things right on the margin.

It's possible. But I still suspect that Cameron would prefer to deal with the LibDems (provided they have enough seats), since a) he knows they can work together already, b) he knows the public is comfortable with a ConDem coalition, c) he can turn the screw a little on Clegg given the shift in power balance (based on seat numbers), and d) the LibDems have a much greater national footprint than the DUP.