My view is that if they're successful in one state, Republicans will be emboldened to try the same thing in other states. The GOP is still firmly behind President Trump nationally, at a state level and with local activists.
We can call it fear mongering but perhaps fear is the proper response. You need to treat a real danger as real in order to manage it. The notion that it magically "can't happen here" because of reasons is an awful framing. Acknowledging that it could happen here is the proper framing.
I think he's unlikely to get away with it. Unlikely does not mean impossible, however (though it asymptotically approaches impossible with every passing day). He should not get a pass for his incompetence though: he
is attempting a
coup (and yes, it counts even if he's not, presumably, counting on the military stepping in —I think it has only been Skeptic Ginger who brought up military support as if somehow it was implied or needed).
We have gotten lucky in that this election was not close and that, rather than some alleged decency of state level Republicans, is at least one thing that has kept the sort of shenanigans needed to overturn the election at bay. Trump was not even very subtle about telegraphing an exclusive focus on Pennsylvania & their initial moves were consistent with that. However, the results we got require overturning more than PA, which they clearly had not expected nor planned for (turning the whole enterprise into this bizarrely incompetent improvisational effort now led by the inimitably deranged Giuliani).
Right now, the Wayne County Board of Canvassers relented & certified their county results because of public pressure. That pressure, presumably premised on outrage at this attempted coup, is as it should be (it's good that everyone did not simply ignore it because it allegedly couldn't succeed). Others are watching what happened with this canvassing board and the fact that it went down as it did matters. If, instead, this had turned into a weeks long certification standoff it also would have mattered (having the effect of possibly emboldening others). GOP politicians are on standby because they are trying to figure out what other GOP politicians are trying to do. Hopefully, this will collapse like a house of cards at some point (but it should not be treated as some sort of inevitability).
Calling it a con, is not helpful We
all know it's a con. It can be both a con and an attempted coup. It can even be a con and successful. Just look at these last 4 years: if his presidential campaign was a con (which I think it was: I think it is likely that the presidency did not even particularly interest him), then it was a successful con.