Presidential Primaries 2012

What a weird election cycle... the "joke" candidates are getting most of the coverage.
 
hgc said:
That messes up my dot system, where I induct a candidate upon formation of the committee. Do I wait to dot M. Bachmann in June, or just get it over with?
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How about using a degree sign? Like this: M. Bachmann ° You can fill it in when she actually does form the committee.

Or just use no marker until she actually does so. For now, it's just talk.
 
So, M. Bachmann gets a partial upgrade to a ○, which indicates a public commitment to take the next step, exploratory committee, at some point in the future. Thanks to GreyArea for the solution.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, sinking... sinking...
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News •
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty •
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News (on suspension)
M. Bachmann ○
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, how to handle Libya: screw Qaddafi in a real estate deal
S. Angle
C. "B." Roemer •
R. Paul (le fils)
F. Karger •

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •
 
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Polls, Polls, Polls

CW is that polls at this point are mostly irrelevant, right?

Well, FWIW:
Pew Research Center. March 8-14, 2011. N=538 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 5.5.

"As I name some possible Republican candidates for president in 2012, please tell me which one, if any, you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party's candidate. [See below.]" If unsure: "As of today, who would you say you LEAN toward?" Options rotated
Mitt Romney 21
Mike Huckabee 20
Sarah Palin 13
Newt Gingrich 11
Ron Paul 8
Tim Pawlenty 3
Mitch Daniels 2
Rick Santorum 2
Haley Barbour 2
Chris Christie (vol.) 2
Other (vol.) 1
None (vol.) 5
Unsure 10

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. March 11-13, 2011. N=504 Republicans and independents who lean Republican nationwide. Margin of error ± 4.5.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. [See below.]" Options rotated

Mike Huckabee 19
Mitt Romney 18
Newt Gingrich 14
Sarah Palin 12
Donald Trump 10
Ron Paul 8
Tim Pawlenty 3
Mitch Daniels 3
Rick Santorum 3
Haley Barbour 1
Someone else (vol.) 4
None/No one (vol.) 3
Unsure 2
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Looks like Huckabee and Romney are the early frontrunners, while Pawlenty has his work cut out.
However, if he can sell himself in one of the early states, he has a chance. Huckabee was pretty popular in Iowa last time though, while Romney did well in NH (close second to McCain, who won't be running this time).
 
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In light of Bachmann declaring her intent, when was the last time a representative was nominated from either party?
 
Gerald Ford was a rep before being appointed VP.

George H.W. Bush, Nixon, Kennedy, McCain, Bob Dole and Al Gore were all US Reps at one time.
 
And Congress>President?

If the last nominee was 1908 you wonder why any Rep bothers.
 
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Undesired Walrus said:
In light of Bachmann declaring her intent, when was the last time a representative was nominated from either party?
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They asked a similar question on Political Junkie a week or so ago. I think their question was limited to who was elected president with no other experience but the House. Naturally, I don't remember the answer.

ETA: Not from "either party" but John Anderson went from the House to presidential ballot.

How about Ford? He went from the House to VP to Pres, and *then* won his party's nomination.
 
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JoeTheJuggler said:
How about Ford? He went from the House to VP to Pres, and *then* won his party's nomination.
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Doesn't count. He was the incumbent president. You have to go back to William Jennings Bryan in 1896 for a sitting representative to win the nomination of one of the two major parties. He was re-nominated in 1900, but he was no longer a sitting representative. You have to go back to Lincoln, I think, for one to actually win.
 
Hotline's Presidential Power Rankings

We rank the top 15 GOP contenders using four criteria:



* Money: How much do they have? How much can they raise?
* Campaign infrastructure: Do they have the ability to assemble a competitive and competent staff, both at the national and state levels?
* Strengths: What issue(s) can the candidate truly hang their hat on? Is there a specific area of expertise they can sell to voters? Do they have a strong track record on one particular issue?
* Weaknesses: Every candidate has one -- heck, most candidates have plenty -- and the reality is that eventually they will have to address them. This will be easier for some contenders than others: Explaining away one vote for bad legislation is far easier than justifying a major moral lapse or some fatally flawed executive decision. At the end of the day, some candidates will have weaknesses, and others will have albatrosses. It’s the latter group who should be worried.
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Puppycow said:
Doesn't count. He was the incumbent president. You have to go back to William Jennings Bryan in 1896 for a sitting representative to win the nomination of one of the two major parties. He was re-nominated in 1900, but he was no longer a sitting representative. You have to go back to Lincoln, I think, for one to actually win.
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Lincoln didn't go straight from the hill to the house though did he? Wasn't there a gap in between?
 
In light of The Donald's birther fiasco, I think we can cross him off the list of serious candidates, although I still think he is planning to run just to put it on a reality TV show.
 
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