Presidential Primaries 2012

I think her "blood libel" remark really hurt her. I think the Governor of New Jersey was correct in his criticism that she seems unable to move out of her comfort zone and deal with people who are not already her supporters.
She has a giant case of Foot In Mouth disease.
 
Brainster said:
Well, your recollection is wrong on New Hampshire and Iowa.

You can argue that the strategy was faulty (as the CBS News piece does), but realistically he had no chance with the religious right in Iowa and South Carolina, and New Hampshire was widely seen as a battle between McCain and Romney.
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As usual, I am correct. The very article you cite, which is dated 1/8/08, has this:

Giuliani has shelled out $2.5 million for New Hampshire campaign ads and, according to his press secretary Maria Comella, spent 41 days campaigning around the state. Those numbers put Giuliani slightly behind New Hampshire front runner John McCain, who has spent $4 million on campaign ads and logged 46 days on the campaign trail New Hampshire.
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Yes, indeed. Giuliani made a big effort in New Hampshire before deciding that Florida was where he'd make his stand. Why did Giuliani sink in NH polls after spending 41 days there? I can only speculate that it's because, with him, familiarity breeds contempt.

Let's go back to Oct 28, 2007, where the WaPo reports:

While Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has drawn perhaps the most attention for his attempts to woo New Hampshire's independents, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R) is set to begin a direct-mail and radio campaign of his own aimed at persuading unaligned voters to back his candidacy.

Both the radio ad, which will begin airing tomorrow, and the direct-mail piece, which will land in Granite State mailboxes over the next few days, are centered on Giuliani's health-care plan.
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Now for Iowa. On Aug 27, 2007, USA Today reports, in this article about Giuliani skipping a straw poll:

Giuliani, a candidate for his party's presidential nomination, said his Iowa supporters should not feel snubbed because he won't be taking part in the Ames event — viewed by pundits as a dress rehearsal for the party caucuses in January — because he is fully committed to the caucuses.
...
Giuliani was using a two-day campaign swing through the eastern two-thirds of the state to grab a share of the media spotlight ahead of the straw poll. Just as he did on a previous visit to Iowa, he tried to reach out to social conservatives.
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Those are just the articles I found in 2 mins searching. There are countless accounts of Giuliani making the effort in Iowa and NH, and then clearing out when the writing-on-the-wall came into view. Was that the smart thing to do? Of course. But my point is that he was the big leader in national polls, and his numbers dropped as he cruised to a shellacking. Being nowhere in polls now, it's hard to imagine why he thinks his numbers will go the opposite direction this time. If anything, the Republican Party is more conservative now.

And then there's Florida, where the mayor of 9/11 was going to make his stand. Rudy's closest political analogue anywhere (though he backed McCain), very popular governor Charlie Crist, was tossed by the state GOP in the senate campaign for insufficient conservativeness.

In any case, I'd love to see him try.
 
My, oh my. Amp up the crazy. We have a very super special entrant to the sorta, maybe sweepstakes today in the name of Sharron Angle, late of Nevada senate race fame. See the article in Politico where she says, "I'll just say I have lots of options for the future, and I'm investigating all my options."

And for all those disappointed that B. Obama was going to cruise to an uncontested nomination, it so happens that Randall Terry, anti-abortion agitator extraordinaire, has declared his entry into the Democratic primary race for president. And he enters with a dot. Who knew? More at CNN.

J. DeMint gets unstruck today. He's visiting Iowa, and his peeps are saying this: "'I think that you can read into it that he sees he has a role in the process and he hasn't completely shut the door,' said one DeMint adviser asked about the Iowa foray," according to CNN.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, having a Sputnik moment
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence (Look for early declaration from here -- I predict by March 2011)
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, world class hair
S. Angle

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
 
M. Pence is out.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, having a Sputnik moment
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence (Look for early declaration from here -- I predict by March 2011)
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, world class hair
S. Angle

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
 
His press secretary was obliged to say that he wasn't writing New Hampshire off, and Giuliani was obliged to say that he wasn't writing Iowa off. I am not obliged to believe it.
 
Pawlenty has a good shot. He ruined Minnesota, so now on to the rest of the country. But he is very smart, very personable, and not extremely wealthy. I also think Mitt Romney would give Obama a good run, but the Mormon thing might keep him from winning. Sarah is definitely out.
 
shalomsteph said:
Pawlenty has a good shot. He ruined Minnesota, so now on to the rest of the country. But he is very smart, very personable, and not extremely wealthy. I also think Mitt Romney would give Obama a good run, but the Mormon thing might keep him from winning. Sarah is definitely out.
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Pawlenty is the Republican Establishment candidate. Fox News is pushing his candidacy.
 
Wow. Looks like J. Huntsman will depart as Amb. to China and take a look at running for pres. That's what Politico says. I thought that that talk was beltway hopeful thinking, but turns out it's for real.

Also, a new kid on the block. Jimmy McMillan of The Rent is Too Damn High Party. HuffPo

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, having a Sputnik moment
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, world class hair
S. Angle

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •
 
shalomsteph said:
Pawlenty has a good shot. He ruined Minnesota, so now on to the rest of the country. But he is very smart, very personable, and not extremely wealthy. I also think Mitt Romney would give Obama a good run, but the Mormon thing might keep him from winning. Sarah is definitely out.
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2012 isn't Romney's year since it's probably going to be an election defined by health care reform, which isn't going to be one of his selling points to the base.
 
Nate Silver at the New York Times' "FiveThirtyEight" blog has a new look at the 2012 Republican primary field. He uses a graph to show how the potential competitors compare to each other along an insider/outsider axis and a moderate/conservative axis. He also shows the "gravitation pull" each candidate has on voters, relative to each other.

A Graphical Overview of the 2012 Republican Field
February 4, 2011, 11:07 am

It's really just a sketch, but I found it to be an interesting way to move beyond a simple list. Remember that when Republican voters look at the each candidate, they will assess them in competition and comparison to the others. This graph tries to account for that dynamic (as best as anyone can one year out from the first primary).
 
Does Mitch Daniels have a chance?
I keep hearing his name come up in discussions of contenders for the republican nomination.
While Pawlenty is going all Evangelical Christian, Daniels has called for "a truce on social issues" and now he's even come out in favor of death panels.

“We all want to live forever. We want everything done to help us,” he told health care reporters during a discussion of Medicare and its financial pressures. “And we cannot, no one can, do absolutely everything that modern technology makes possible for absolutely everyone ’til absolutely the very last day, the very last resort.”

He added that he understands the urge by families to push for what may be futile care. “It’s the most human thing in the world,” he said. “Your loved one is in desperate shape.” He said “we can try this thing that has almost no chance of working” but questioned whether it is worth it, especially given that “it’s going to cost an incredible amount of money.”
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I may be missing something, but the only news coming out of CPAC is that S. Angle will not run. She made the transition from mentionable to strike-through in record time.

Was there other news of interest re: who's running/not?

I expect the floodgates to open in about 2 weeks. Thoughts?

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, having a Sputnik moment
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, world class hair
S. Angle

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •
 
hgc said:
Was there other news of interest re: who's running/not?

I expect the floodgates to open in about 2 weeks. Thoughts?
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I don't think anyone big has officially announced yet, but Romney, Pawlenty and Gingrich sure look like they're running. Ron Paul too, probably. Mitch Daniels and Michele Bachmann also look like they are at least seriously considering a run.
 
J. Thune looks to be keeping his powder dry for 2016. The floodgates open within the week. Someone has got to lay their necks on the line.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, sinking... sinking...
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, claims no one Obama went to school with remembers him
S. Angle

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •
 
Ok, aren't we a little overdue for declarations of exploratory committees and the like?

I think that this time in 2007 they were probably debating by now.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
Ok, aren't we a little overdue for declarations of exploratory committees and the like?

I think that this time in 2007 they were probably debating by now.
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I think the uncertainty of the Republican party direction is leading to this. There is no faction clearly leading the party, leading to individuals not having clear party-wide support. A party insider stepping forward could empower an outsider by setting up a position to antagonise, but a party outsider stepping forward can simply be ignored as irrelevant without the normal channels of gathering support. My suspicion is we are in a waiting game. The individual players want a more certain field, but that field will not form unless someone puts themselves out there. So we are waiting until someone feels any further waiting destroys the possibility of defeating Obama overcoming reluctance to set themself up in front of the firing squad. My bet is for significant movement to begin just before the summer Congressional recess.
 
Employment changes tonight. N. Gingrich and R. Santorum have been suspended by Fox News until they've make up their minds about running for prez. Why not S. Palin and M. Huckabee? I think that Fox News knows what's what with their employees, who's running and who ain't.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, sinking... sinking...
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News (on suspension)
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News (on suspension)
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, claims no one Obama went to school with remembers him
S. Angle

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •
 
At last! The first credible (for what it's worth) GOP candidate has announced his exploratory committee, and thus gets his dot. All hail N. Gingrich -- first lamb to the slaughter.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News, sinking... sinking...
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News •
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News (on suspension)
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump, claims no one Obama went to school with remembers him
S. Angle

Dem
B. Obama
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •
 
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