Presidential Primaries 2012

[Tricky]

I hope Huntsman becomes the nominee. Just so that there can be some sanity and civil behaviour brought to the table.

If that's what he hopes to do, he'll never get the nomination. The tea partiers won't allow it.

The Tea Party doesn't control the nomination, much as they like to think so. A unifying candidate that can command the GOP middle ground can still beat the crazies. Indeed the fact that Mitt Romney (the one who likes universal health care) is the front-runner shows tha relative power of the Republican middle. They aren't noisy and aggressive like TP-ers, but they wield a considerable clout. If Huntsman can steal the middle from Romney, he stands a fair chance in the nomination, and a better chance in the general election.

 

[Noztradamus]

Iowa Straw Poll: T-Mac will be there.

No, not worth it. He's never been a mentionable, at least within my field of view. Looks like a couple of McCotter fans having a little fun in Wackytown.

Don't speak too soon.

 

[MattusMaximus]

The Tea Party doesn't control the nomination, much as they like to think so. A unifying candidate that can command the GOP middle ground can still beat the crazies. Indeed the fact that Mitt Romney (the one who likes universal health care) is the front-runner shows tha relative power of the Republican middle. They aren't noisy and aggressive like TP-ers, but they wield a considerable clout. If Huntsman can steal the middle from Romney, he stands a fair chance in the nomination, and a better chance in the general election.

This ^

In fact, based upon what I know about the man, I might actually prefer Huntsman to Romney. I think the primary disadvantage for Huntsman is that he is an unknown.

 

[hgc]

Don't speak too soon.

Show me linky. He'll get his due.

 

[IMST]

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/more_bo_than_anyone_can_stand.html

It's so cute how you believe that. Could you publicly believe some more things for my entertainment?

 

[Spindrift]

The Tea Party doesn't control the nomination, much as they like to think so. A unifying candidate that can command the GOP middle ground can still beat the crazies. Indeed the fact that Mitt Romney (the one who likes universal health care) is the front-runner shows tha relative power of the Republican middle. They aren't noisy and aggressive like TP-ers, but they wield a considerable clout. If Huntsman can steal the middle from Romney, he stands a fair chance in the nomination, and a better chance in the general election.

No the Tea Party doesn't control the nomination, but their influence might be greater than their numbers.

The problem is that the fun starts in Iowa. You could get Bachmann doing very well there and the moderate candidates start swerving way to the right. Guess who's waiting over there? Romney's best bet is to stay the course and hope that Bachmann or someone further right doesn't get too much momentum early on. People like a front-runner. If someone jumps out to an early and commanding lead, it is very hard for anyone else to overcome that. (i.e. the Rudy strategy of waiting for states where you think you'll do well doesn't work.)

Huntsman's pretty much in the same boat, but he will need Romney to stumble and also overcome the 'taint' of having worked for Obama.

 

[MattusMaximus]

No the Tea Party doesn't control the nomination, but their influence might be greater than their numbers.

The problem is that the fun starts in Iowa. You could get Bachmann doing very well there and the moderate candidates start swerving way to the right. Guess who's waiting over there? Romney's best bet is to stay the course and hope that Bachmann or someone further right doesn't get too much momentum early on. People like a front-runner. If someone jumps out to an early and commanding lead, it is very hard for anyone else to overcome that. (i.e. the Rudy strategy of waiting for states where you think you'll do well doesn't work.)

Huntsman's pretty much in the same boat, but he will need Romney to stumble and also overcome the 'taint' of having worked for Obama.

Looks like there could be some real trouble brewing between Romney and the Tea Party crowd, including serious talk among some hardcore TP-leaders that if Romney locks up the GOP nomination they could go the third party route...

Tea party dilemma: What to do about Mitt Romney

The anybody-but-Mitt Romney faction developing within the tea party may pose a problem for the former Massachusetts governor’s presidential ambitions, but some tea party organizers worry it could also backfire against the movement itself.

Romney, the current Republican front-runner, is viewed skeptically — at best — by many tea partiers. And disagreement over whether to actively oppose him threatens to undo the uneasy truces forged in the run-up to the 2010 midterms and undermine the fledgling movement’s influence in the GOP.

The possibility of Romney winning the nomination is even reviving debate about whether activists should embrace, or even form, a third party — an idea that until recently had been dismissed as harmful to both the movement and the GOP. ...

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Looks like there could be some real trouble brewing between Romney and the Tea Party crowd, including serious talk among some hardcore TP-leaders that if Romney locks up the GOP nomination they could go the third party route...

That'd be fine by me.

But, I think if the "anybody-but-Romney" crowd were that strong, Romney probably wouldn't get the GOP nomination. It's mighty early yet.

 

[Puppycow]

Perry surges into second place, and Bachmann gaining too:

Romney: 33.1% +0.8%
Perry: 18.0% +5.8%
Huntsman: 11.2% -1.8%
Pawlenty: 11.0% -3.9%
Bachmann: 8.2% +1.9%

(Palin and Cain continue to fade so I'm going to narrow this down to the top 5.)

Update:
Bachmann has moved into 3rd place, as Huntsman and Pawlenty fade. Romney's support continues to solidify.

Romney: 36.1% +3.0%
Perry: 16.8% -1.2%
Bachmann: 9.5% +1.3%
Huntsman: 9.1% -2.1%
Pawlenty: 9.0% -2.0%

 

[Puppycow]

Update:
Bachmann has moved into 3rd place, as Huntsman and Pawlenty fade. Romney's support continues to solidify.

Didn't intend to do another update so soon, but the Michele Bachmann surge continues as she has surged past Perry into second place now.

Romney: 35.0% -1.1%
Bachmann: 14.5% +5.0%
Perry: 12.1% -4.7%
Pawlenty: 8.3% -0.7%
Huntsman: 8.0% -1.1%

 

[hgc]

Didn't intend to do another update so soon, but the Michele Bachmann surge continues as she has surged past Perry into second place now.

Romney: 35.0% -1.1%
Bachmann: 14.5% +5.0%
Perry: 12.1% -4.7%
Pawlenty: 8.3% -0.7%
Huntsman: 8.0% -1.1%

It's quite a phenomenon. I think it's caused by something like rumored crazy person actually forms whole sentences. Presidential material!

 

[Puppycow]

It's quite a phenomenon. I think it's caused by something like rumored crazy person actually forms whole sentences. Presidential material!

Something like that. Bush called it "the soft bigotry of low expectations."

 

[SezMe]

Show me linky. He'll get his due.

Ask and ye shall receive.

 

[hgc]

Thanks to some eagle-eyed scouts, Noztradamus and SezMe, it is my pleasure to add another surprise candidate to the the burgeoning field of election contenders. Please welcome Thaddeus McCotter, of Michigan's 11th congressional district, to the race. He joins with a solid dot, noting the news afoot that he will announce tomorrow. I'm not sure, but if elected, I suspect he'll be our first president named Thaddeus.

Any predictions for the July 4th weekend? Will any of our menagerie make news with announcements? I had previously predicted that S. Palin would make an rambling, incomprehensible, whining, accusatory withdrawal this weekend, but now I'm not so sure. She may postpone that shtick until later in the summer.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News (Yesterday's Bachmann)
W. "M." Romney (Campaign slogan: Romneycare ≠ Obamacare) •
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News •
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty •
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père) •
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China •
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News •
M. Bachmann •
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson (free the buds!) •
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump (running a fakey/teasy campaign elsewhere)
S. Angle
C. "B." Roemer •
R. Paul (le fils)
F. Karger •
R. Perry ○
R. Moore •
T. McCotter •

Dem
B. Obama •
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump (Hair today, gone tomorrow)

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •

 

[Puppycow]

How much more time can Rick Perry afford to wait if he's going to get into the race?

I heard something about mid-July being important for technical reasons related to getting one's name on the ballot in certain states.

 

[Puppycow]

Wheels are coming off the Cain campaign.

Cain Loses Key Staffers from Presidential Campaign

 

[thaiboxerken]

Yea, looks like Cain was a one-week wonder.

 

[Spindrift]

Thanks to some eagle-eyed scouts, Noztradamus and SezMe, it is my pleasure to add another surprise candidate to the the burgeoning field of election contenders. Please welcome Thaddeus McCotter, of Michigan's 11th congressional district, to the race. He joins with a solid dot, noting the news afoot that he will announce tomorrow. I'm not sure, but if elected, I suspect he'll be our first president named Thaddeus.

I mentioned him a while back.

This guy got 2 votes in a straw poll. Is he worth adding?

Thad McCotter^WP

 

[hgc]

I mentioned him a while back.

So sorry. Due credit to Spindrift!

 

[hgc]

Wow, didn't see that coming. Noted white civil rights advocate, David Duke, is coming to the party. Please join me in ... um ... noting his presence.

http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/white-supremacist-david-duke-moves-toward-pr

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News (Yesterday's Bachmann)
W. "M." Romney (Campaign slogan: Romneycare ≠ Obamacare) •
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News •
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty •
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père) •
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China •
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News •
M. Bachmann •
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson (free the buds!) •
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain, the candidate you can't refuse •
D. Trump (running a fakey/teasy campaign elsewhere)
S. Angle
C. "B." Roemer •
R. Paul (le fils)
F. Karger •
R. Perry ○
R. Moore •
T. McCotter •
D. Duke (All new! Frosty beard!) •

Dem
B. Obama •
R. Terry •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump (Hair today, gone tomorrow)

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •