Spindrift
Time Person of the Year, 2006
The party's been heading his way.
Presidential Primaries 2012
- Thread starter hgc
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Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
Looks like the odds that Perry will get in this race are starting to diminish, although still over 50%. A couple weeks ago or so they were seen as around 70%.
George Will sees him as the only candidate who can beat Romney.
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hgc
Penultimate Amazing
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Karl Rove says he's going to run. Now, while I trust that Karl does know, one way or the other, about Perry's intentions, he could very well be lying about it.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...ve-says-he-expects-perry-to-run-for-president
Spindrift
Time Person of the Year, 2006
Well, if Lex Luthor can win...I took that first sentence as "Karl Rove is going to run" and re-read it a few times before I read the next sentence.
The primary coverage has gotten dull since Trump stopped giving juicy soundbites and Palin got off the bus. Bachmann just doesn't seem to have the crazy chops to keep things interesting by herself, though she does seem to be trying. The field has been winnowed down to the tea party favorites and the boring white guys. The boring white guy "scandals" are just too dull in comparison to the previous antics. Maybe we can get a nice "shacking up with a campaign staffer" story to liven things up a bit. And aren't we due for an open mic gaff?
NotJesus
Unsaviory
Why not combine them? Candidate making a date with staffer on open mic. Bonus points if staffer is 25+ years candidate's junior, or same gender as candidate.
hgc
Penultimate Amazing
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Hey, speaking of D. Trump, it was a bad hair day in Panama the other day as the short-fingered vulgarian from Queens dropped new hints about how if the Republicans don't pick someone he approves of, blah blah blah...
Get it into your heads -- D. Trump will never, ever run for President. But he will prime and milk speculation to that effect for as long as suckers are lining up to imbibe it. He'll do the same thing four years hence.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2011/0707/Could-Donald-Trump-reenter-the-presidential-race
Get it into your heads -- D. Trump will never, ever run for President. But he will prime and milk speculation to that effect for as long as suckers are lining up to imbibe it. He'll do the same thing four years hence.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2011/0707/Could-Donald-Trump-reenter-the-presidential-race
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
Well, he says that he thinks and expects Perry to run. I didn't get the impression that he knows. Maybe he's trying to talk Perry into it and sees a role for himself in a possible Perry Administration.
Romney's already got a big lead in fundraising. Every day that Perry delays the decision Romney and Bachmann will raise more money. IOW, time is not on Perry's side.
DarthFishy
Graduate Poster
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I'll admit I'm too lazy to go through all the old threads on the 2008 election but how accurate did Intrade end up being? If I remember correctly (and there was some discussion about it) it was considered one of the more accurate measures of actual candidate support?
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
I don't know if there has been a quantitative analysis done of it. One specific example of it being wrong stands out in my mind: It was wrong about the New Hampshire primary. Everyone, including the punters on Intrade, thought that Obama was going to win, but Hillary won. I think that even Hillary's own campaign probably thought that she was going to lose.
So it's not a crystal ball, just a reflection of the conventional wisdom. It's about as accurate as the conventional wisdom is.
Also, the predictions can change several times before a contract expires. An event may be seen as likely at one point and unlikely at another before the contract expires. It this case, you can only say that it was accurate at some points and inaccurate at other points.
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
Well, the punters now see it as 71% likely that he'll run. I don't really know why, other than people see an opening for him in the field.
Here's one story about the speculation:
7 Perry stops pointing to White House?
Basically talks about his schedule, which seems ambiguous to me.
Remember that late last year he ruled out a presidential run in pretty clear terms. But apparently he is having second thoughts about that.
Despite the current betting, I'm still skeptical that he will run in the end, although he may let the speculation continue for a while.
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Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
I would assume that she's talking about deadlines for getting one's name on the ballot for the primaries in each state. Those deadlines begin sometime around Octoberish or Novemberish although they don't seem to be set yet. The "end of summer" is more of a logistical deadline than a legal deadline as far as I can tell. A campaign is going to need to have organizations with volunteers in each state to compete. Signatures have to be gathered and forms filed.
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
On the Rick Perry Front, the line at Intrade is now 89.5% that he will run.
It looks like somebody knows something.
Gov. Perry Feeling 'Called' to Run for President
Apparently he's also been making hundreds of phone calls to donors to "gauge his support."
Perry calls Chuck Grassley about potential 2012 run
Iowa governor: Rick Perry 2012 run likely
As a result of the increased perception that Perry will run, he's back in second place in the Intrade betting. Meanwhile, the punters seem to be having second thoughts about Michele Bachmann.
Romney: 36.9% +2.9%
Perry: 23.1% +10.5%
Bachmann: 9.2% -8.8%
Huntsman: 7.3% -0.3%
Pawlenty: 6.0% -3.0%
It looks like somebody knows something.
Gov. Perry Feeling 'Called' to Run for President
Apparently he's also been making hundreds of phone calls to donors to "gauge his support."
Perry calls Chuck Grassley about potential 2012 run
Iowa governor: Rick Perry 2012 run likely
As a result of the increased perception that Perry will run, he's back in second place in the Intrade betting. Meanwhile, the punters seem to be having second thoughts about Michele Bachmann.
Romney: 36.9% +2.9%
Perry: 23.1% +10.5%
Bachmann: 9.2% -8.8%
Huntsman: 7.3% -0.3%
Pawlenty: 6.0% -3.0%
hgc
Penultimate Amazing
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For sure. Hence my comment. S. Palin speaks; ignorance demonstrated.
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
Ladies and gentlemen we now have a new front-runner. At least for a moment. The punters at Intrade now consider Rick Perry to be slightly more likely to win the nomination than Romney.
Perry: 31.7% +8.6%
Romney: 30.3% -6.6%
Bachmann: 9.4% +0.2%
Huntsman: 7.0% -0.3%
Pawlenty: 5.8% -0.2%
Personally I think that Romney's a steal at this price, and Rick still hasn't even formally announced anything yet. I think that this is "the next new thing" phenomenon that propelled Bachmann's brief surge two weeks ago. Remember that Romney has already raised over $18 million (nobody else in the republican field raised as much as $5 million, but on the other side Obama has already raised $46 million).
Speaking of fundraising, Open Secrets has a nice graph of who has how much, and how much of it came from small donations.
Obama is absolutely killing in small donations. Romney actually raised money in the donations over $200 category, but made hardly anything in small donations. Among republicans, Ron Paul does fairly well in small donations.
Here's the graph enlarged.
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a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
So the Republicans don't actually have anyone of any substance to put up against Obama?
JoeTheJuggler
Penultimate Amazing
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But of course when it comes time for the general election, the GOP can count on organizations like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spending virtually unlimited amounts of money for their cause (or against Obama's).