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He should do something really maverick-y, like hold a second convention the week before the election.

Strange as it sounds, I would not put it past him. He has been really erratic as the wheels have started to come off. He could just gamble with all the marbles up for grabs, he seems to be that sort of person.
 
The relatively low viewership numbers and the skew in the viewers towards Democrats does not bode well for McCain. It would suggest that despite the addition of Sarah Palin that the democratic base is still more energized. And if puppycow is correct and significant numbers watched on the internet, I would expect this group to skew even more strongly democratic.
 
Some States with new polls over the past day ...

Kerry States:

Pennsylvania (21)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 15 (54%-39%)
October 1 - Franklin & Marshall: Obama by 7 (45%-38%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
September 29 - Morning Call: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
September 26 - Morning Call: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 2 (43%-41%)
September 25 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 24 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 1 (47%-46%)


Bush States:

Florida (27)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 30 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (47%-47%)
September 29 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
September 26 - Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
September 24 - Strategic Vision (R): McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
September 23 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
September 19 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: McCain by 4 (47%-43%)
September 18 - Indy Star/Selzer: Obama by 3 (47%-44%)

Ohio (20)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
September 25 - Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (47%-46%)
September 23 - InAdv/PollPosition: Tied (46%-46%)

Virginia (13)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
September 26 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
September 24 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 3 (47%-44%)
 
Even discounting those Quinnipiac numbers as outliers, I would think the McCain folks would be terrified by these results. Obama seems to be about even in Florida and Ohio, and slightly ahead in Virginia. Ohio, in particular, has been getting a lot of attention from McCain/Palin, and it's only resulted in their numbers falling.
 
Even discounting those Quinnipiac numbers as outliers, I would think the McCain folks would be terrified by these results. Obama seems to be about even in Florida and Ohio, and slightly ahead in Virginia. Ohio, in particular, has been getting a lot of attention from McCain/Palin, and it's only resulted in their numbers falling.


Quinnipiac has a good reputation among the polling organizations. They look like outliers, but I'm hesitant to discount them too quickly.
 
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Rasmussen has Obama up by 6 again today (51%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This is the sixth straight day that Obama has been at 50% or 51%, the sixth straight day that McCain has been at 44% or 45%, and the sixth straight day the Obama has enjoyed a five or six point lead

The current results are similar to, but a couple of points better than, the stable lead Obama enjoyed during the month of June. As always, the state polls are following the national trend and Obama’s advantage in the Electoral College has grown over the past week.

White women voters, a segment of the population that George W. Bush carried by eleven points four years ago, are evenly divided between Obama and McCain.

Obama leads among Democrats 87% to 11% while McCain leads among Republicans by an identical margin. For much of the year, McCain was able to count on a more unified party than Obama, but that advantage has disappeared. Obama benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation and he also holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters

Obama is now trusted more on economic issues by 51% of voters, McCain by 42%. That’s the biggest advantage either candidate has enjoyed on this issue during Election 2008 and the first time either candidate has been trusted more by a majority of voters
 
GW/Battleground Tracking has Obama by 2 again today (48%-46%).

They have been showing McCain by 2 for the longest time until yesterday.
 
Intrade has Mccain below 35 now.


I think one of the big reasons for this is that Obama is starting to poll at 50% and higher in a number of national and State polls. McCain can't count on just undecideds to tip the scale when that happens. It makes his job that much tougher.
 
Time has Obama up by 7 (50%-43%) ...

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1846065,00.html

Among the poll's most dramatic findings: McCain is losing female voters faster than Sarah Palin attracted them after the Republican National Convention. Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%. Before the conventions, women preferred Obama by a margin of 10 points, 49%-39%. After McCain picked Palin as his running mate, the gap narrowed to a virtual tie, with Obama holding a 1-point margin, 48%-47%.

In a stark indication of just how much the political landscape has changed over the past four years, white women now favor Obama by three points, 48%-45%; in 2004, George W. Bush won the same demographic by 11 points against John Kerry. Where Bush carried married women by 15 points in that election, 57%-42%, Obama now leads by 6 points, 50%-44%, a 21-point shift.

For McCain, the most troubling sign may come not from the details of the poll, which are grim for Republicans, but from the historical context. No Democrat has crossed the 50% threshold in the general election since before Ronald Reagan was elected, let alone do so a month before the election.

The poll, which surveyed 1,133 likely voters nationwide between Sept. 26-29, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
 
Gallup has Obama up by 4 (48%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110881/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx

The latest results are based on interviewing conducted Sept. 28-30, a time period in which the American public watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average seesaw between a 700+ point loss and a 400+ point gain on Monday and Tuesday, while attempts by Congress to pass some type of legislation dealing with the financial crisis continued.
 
State of the interesting States as of this morning ...

Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
September 24 - MRG of Lansing: McCain by 3 (46%-43%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)

Minnesota (10)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

New Hampshire (4)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
September 25 - 7News/Suffolk: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 24 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)

Pennsylvania (21)
October 1 - Morning Call Tracking: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 15 (54%-39%)
October 1 - Franklin & Marshall: Obama by 7 (45%-38%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
September 29 - Morning Call: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
September 26 - Morning Call: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 2 (43%-41%)
September 25 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 24 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 1 (47%-46%)

Wisconsin (10)
October 1 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
September 25 - Research 2000: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)



Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
September 24 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
September 24 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
September 23 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 1 - Suffolk/WSVN: Obama by 4 (46%-42%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 30 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (47%-47%)
September 29 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)

Indiana (11)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
September 19 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: McCain by 4 (47%-43%)
September 18 - Indy Star/Selzer: Obama by 3 (47%-44%)

Iowa (7)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Missouri (11)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
September 26 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
September 26 - Post-Dispatch/R2000: McCain by 1 (47%-46%)

Nevada (5)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 1 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
September 22 - Suffolk University: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)

New Mexico (5)
September 22 - PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)
September 18 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

North Carolina (15)
September 29 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)

Ohio (20)
October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (48%-47%)
September 25 - Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (47%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 29 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
September 26 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
September 24 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 3 (47%-44%)



Latest National Polls:

October 1 - CBS News: Obama by 9 (50%-41%)
October 1 - Associated Press-GfK: Obama by 7 (48%-41%-Nader 2%-Barr 1%)
October 1 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 1 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 1 - Time: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 1 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 4 (49%-45%-Nader 2%-Barr 1%)
October 1 - Pew Research: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
October 1 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 1 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 1 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
September 30 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (48%-45%-Nader 3%-Barr 1%)
 
Heading into the debate tonight ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26979768/

A new AP-Gfk poll released Wednesday found that just 25 percent of likely voters believe Palin has the right experience to be president. That's down from 41 percent just after the GOP convention, when the Alaska governor made her well-received debut on the national stage.

...

In the new poll, the declining sentiment for Palin was noticeable even among Republican likely voters: Just 47 percent now believe she has the right experience to be president, down from 75 percent in the previous survey. Initially, Palin's selection was widely praised by Republicans and especially conservative voters who have been wary of McCain.


It'll be interesting to see how this changes in polls early next week.
 
Rasmussen has Obama increasing his lead to 7 (51%-44%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This seven-point advantage is the largest yet enjoyed by Obama during Election 2008 and is consistent with the stable lead he has enjoyed over the past week.

Nationally, Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 52%. This is McCain’s lowest his favorable rating since June 15


Obama increased his lead up to 5 in the GW/Battleground Tracking poll (49%-44%)
 
Update for North Carolina:

North Carolina (15)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
September 29 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

For the second straight weekly poll, Barack Obama holds a slight advantage over John McCain in the traditionally Republican state of North Carolina.

In North Carolina, Obama now leads by twelve among women while McCain leads by ten among men. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain is on top among older voters. McCain leads among by three among Investors while Obama is up by six among non-Investors
 
I wish we had some more recent polling in Michigan. Surprised nobody is doing it there.

But by far the most startling numbers up there are Florida. If it comes down like that on election day, nothing else matters. There is no scenario I know of where McCain can win without Florida.
 
I wish we had some more recent polling in Michigan. Surprised nobody is doing it there.

But by far the most startling numbers up there are Florida. If it comes down like that on election day, nothing else matters. There is no scenario I know of where McCain can win without Florida.

Ask and ye shall receive ... :D

Michigan (17)
October 2 - PPP (D) Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 25 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 25 - Detroit Free Press: Obama by 13 (51%-38%)
September 25 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 8 (47%-39%)
September 25 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Tied (46%-46%)
September 25 - EPIC-MRA: Obama by 10 (48%-38%)


Also a new poll for New Mexico:

New Mexico (5)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 22 - PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)
 
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Intrade has Mccain at 33.2, and RCP has Obama up 168 electoral votes in non-toss up states.
 
I know it's an outlier but...

Florida (27)

October 1 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)

I find that hard to believe.

:confused:

I guess on the other hand we should look at Gore / Bush, it was pretty close there in Florida and I don't think Gore was as good a candidate as Obama (which explains why I didn't vote for Gore but will for Obama). On the other hand Gore had the advantage of the sitting president.

I don't know, I just didn't really see Obama making it close in Florida. I guess it's closer than I had in my minds eye.
 
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