Medium finds missing woman in UK river

[Vixen]

But it's very easy to inadvertently fool yourself into believing that, especially when you have no knowledge or understanding of the cognitive biases that made it necessary to invent the scientific method.

Let's not forget, most of the great scientists, including those who formed the Royal Society all believed in alchemy (the forerunner of Chemistry) and astrology at some point.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Amongst all of the jiggery-pokery of medieval and Victorian/Edwardian the introduction of the scientific method was a welcome breath of fresh air to clear away all the tired old junk of alchemy, magick, theosophist ethers, angels, ghosts, spirits, fairies, etcetera. The Carl Popper method of the null hypothesis, i.e., assuming something does not exist unless it can be scientifically proven, peer reviewed and the method of said proof replicable. A jolly welcome clearance of a load of nonsense clutter!

However, whilst science can prove a thing or phenomenon does exist or cannot exist, it can't prove that something abstract does not exist nor can never be proven.

Simply to write off that something as 'madness', 'fraud' or 'delusion' isn't scientific in itself. They are just dismissive words.

As for applying he word 'supernatural': are instincts or 'common sense' 'supernatural? What if they are actually quite natural? All animals have instincts and we can explain it by pointing to an area at the back of the skull that all mammals have, or some kind of photosynthesis reflex to light or amoebic reaction to touch. But what about the strange behaviour of birds recently in the Turkey-Syria disaster? They were acting restlessly long before the earthquake was registered on the Richter scale. Would you label that 'supernatural' just because it is inexplicable or rather, unregisterable on any measurable scale, or can we say, actually, the birds had a natural instinct whatever it was; changes in the air, minute vibrations in the trees that unnerved them, etc.?

Your claim to recognise what is and what is not supernatural is a futile and baseless one.


Perhaps Rothwell knows better than you in his subject area?

You seem to be unfamiliar with the work of James Randi and with the million dollar challenge his foundation offered for anyone able to demonstrate any paranormal ability. Perhaps also with the forum he created where people discussed such matters.

 

[Vixen]

Disagree.

And the tipping point comes when someone declares that they have these abilities. For someone to actually decide "Yes, I am a psychic" or "Yes, I possess supernatural abilities", we're talking about something beyond "honestly mistaken".

Look: suppose when I was 18, I had seen a news story about a missing woman. Suppose I told a friend "I just have this vision in my head of her partner killing her then hiding her body in the woods". And then it transpired that this was exactly what had happened. Now, if I were the credulous type, I might have thought to myself (or said to others) "Wow! Maybe I have supernatural abilities!" But nobody in their right mind would declare themselves to have supernatural powers on the basis of one event - and an event which is clearly also explainable by a combination of a) knowledge of prior events (when women go missing, it's far from uncommon to find out they've been murdered by their partner) and b) sheer luck.

Rather.... in order for me to declare I have supernatural powers, I'd have had to experience some sort of pattern of "supernatural divination". One has to consistently hit the bullseye on the target (rather than just hitting one or two random bullseyes) if one is going to declare oneself to be a marksman, after all. And it's this which makes the difference.

Let's suppose for a moment that this guy had travelled up to the area as a mere common-or-garden "amateur sleuth" or as someone who just felt compelled to try to help out in any way he could. Let's say he found the body, and that he described it in the following terms: "I can't really explain it. Early this morning, I think I got this strange feeling that her body was caught up in some reeds a long way downstream from that bench. It's like I could almost visualise her body. It feels like I got some sort of supernatural guidance."

Now that kind of thing I can absolutely put down to an honest mistake.

But... deciding in advance that one has "supernatural powers", then travelling up to the area of this incident in the belief that one's "supernatural powers" will lead one to the body..... that's a whole different kettle of fish. That, my friend, is either fraud or delusion (or similar).

The proof is in the pudding, is it not? Mr. Rothwell, was a practising medium - you can see his adverts for spiritualist meetings - so at some stage decided he had some kind of spiritualist ability. So Mr. Rothwell using his special powers, did get guidance (he claims) that led him to the body.

Voilá! He put his money where his mouth is.

What more do you want?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

If the body was found by a medium using his skills, let's say, 'Thank you, Jason, your skills were great!'

The body was spotted by either a medium or his partner using their skills.

Those skills were;

1) Finding their way to the river in question.
2) Looking.

 

[Vixen]

Rightly or wrongly that's usually attributed to Edison, isn't it? 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.

And 0% magical powers, obviously.

We always attributed it to Einstein:

Albert Einstein is quoted as saying that “genius is 1 percent talent and 99 percent hard work.” To make anything pay off, one must be a dedicated and persistent individual

 

[Vixen]

The body was spotted by either a medium or his partner using their skills.

Those skills were;

1) Finding their way to the river in question.
2) Looking.

Jason and his chum did what £500K's worth of Lancs police did not.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

You'd think. Yet a tendency to vastly underestimate the likelihood that coincidences will occur has been the most common mistake I have encountered in discussions with people who give credence to the paranormal and supernatural.

I agree with you about the people who actually make their living out of this stuff, though. Even if they start out with a genuine belief in their ability, the speed with which they have to resort to cheating must make the scales fall from their eyes pretty quickly.

Bolding mine...

You'd think but audiences are so helpful I can see how it may be continuously reinforced..

Anecdote: I used to read Tarot cards. Never believed in it, just thought they were cool looking and was interested to understand the woo behind them. Started reading them for friends (whilst always pre-stating it was nonsense) and kept getting amazed reactions at how accurate my readings were, how close the cards fit, how I'd said stuff I couldn't possibly know etc. Were I inclined at the start to believe, then several readings in I'd have had that firmly reinforced. As it was, I was able to spot that most of the time they were throwing the information at me, or working to fit the statements I'd made to their situation and the stuff I'd fed back that I 'couldn't possibly know' they'd actually told me themselves, literally moments earlier on a previous card.

Even when I explained this back to people, some still insisted I 'had the gift', that it couldn't explain everything I'd read etc. It was a fascinating insight into how, otherwise intelligent people, can be swayed in to pattern matching and making things fit. I stopped in the end because it was having the opposite effect of the fun debunking I'd had in mind.

To counteract the above, I'm not sure how anyone can read a book on Tarot cards and not realise it's nonsense when they literally tell you "This card means x...unless from your knowledge of the person that doesn't fit, in which case it means whatever you feel it means" or words to that effect. Oh and talking of 'means x' - that's usually a long list of things that could fit any situation eg, you may think drawing 'Death' was bad news but it can just mean a change, or the end of one phase of your life. When I was explaining that to one person I was reading for, they immediately leapt in with 'I was thinking of changing jobs. That's incredible, how did you know that!'

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Jason and his chum did what £500K's worth of Lancs police did not.

Please don't let that coincidence fool you into thinking the paranormal's 100% track record of failing to demonstrate its existence has been broken.

Going there and looking are not paranormal. Retrospectively claiming to have somehow been guided there is not paranormal either.

 

[Nessie]

Jason and his chum did what £500K's worth of Lancs police did not.

Look at how many missing people and bodies are found by the public, especially dog walkers.

It is one reason why the river bank was not closed to the public, except when the police were there doing their bit and they only close that part. The police know there is a good chance she would be found by a member of the public.

 

[junkshop]

We always attributed it to Einstein:

According to Forbes it wasn't said by Einstein. Not by Edison, either (well, not exactly, and not first).

 

[Vixen]

Please don't let that coincidence fool you into thinking the paranormal's 100% track record of failing to demonstrate its existence has been broken.

Going there and looking are not paranormal. Retrospectively claiming to have somehow been guided there is not paranormal either.

I have no opinion on Jason Rothwell's claim he found the body because as a medium he had a 'gift'. I am not going to trash what he claims are his life's experiences nor endorse it.

As for 'coincidence', isn't that concept also in the land of woo?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

As for 'coincidence', isn't that concept also in the land of woo?

No. It's mundane. An event which feels somehow significant to us because our gut feeling is that it's too unlikely to be accidental, even though it's really just an example of random chance, is not paranormal.

 

[Vixen]

Bolding mine...

You'd think but audiences are so helpful I can see how it may be continuously reinforced..

Anecdote: I used to read Tarot cards. Never believed in it, just thought they were cool looking and was interested to understand the woo behind them. Started reading them for friends (whilst always pre-stating it was nonsense) and kept getting amazed reactions at how accurate my readings were, how close the cards fit, how I'd said stuff I couldn't possibly know etc. Were I inclined at the start to believe, then several readings in I'd have had that firmly reinforced. As it was, I was able to spot that most of the time they were throwing the information at me, or working to fit the statements I'd made to their situation and the stuff I'd fed back that I 'couldn't possibly know' they'd actually told me themselves, literally moments earlier on a previous card.

Even when I explained this back to people, some still insisted I 'had the gift', that it couldn't explain everything I'd read etc. It was a fascinating insight into how, otherwise intelligent people, can be swayed in to pattern matching and making things fit. I stopped in the end because it was having the opposite effect of the fun debunking I'd had in mind.

To counteract the above, I'm not sure how anyone can read a book on Tarot cards and not realise it's nonsense when they literally tell you "This card means x...unless from your knowledge of the person that doesn't fit, in which case it means whatever you feel it means" or words to that effect. Oh and talking of 'means x' - that's usually a long list of things that could fit any situation eg, you may think drawing 'Death' was bad news but it can just mean a change, or the end of one phase of your life. When I was explaining that to one person I was reading for, they immediately leapt in with 'I was thinking of changing jobs. That's incredible, how did you know that!'

I have three tarot card decks, the Tarot de Marseilles, Rider Waites and Aleister Crowley's Toth. I haven't done a reading for decades. I still have them because they don't take up much space and for the artistic merit. I've never believed I had any divination gifts. I became interested after going to the south of France for grape picking. We all gathered under a bridge at Montpelier to sample cheap wine. One evening there were some French African guys with a tarot deck and I went to watch them do a tarot reading. One of the cards dealt was the hanged man. The person having the reading went a whiter shade of pale in sheer fright. I had never seen such terror strike anyone so suddenly!

Back in the 90's a Glaswegian friend of mine who was as tough as nails and a wee bit crazy persuaded me to attend spiritualist meetings with her at a hall in Hornsey. I went along out of curiosity. The medium started throwing out names like 'Walter' and 'Albert' - typical names of grandparents! - and someone in the audience would shout out an acknowledgement. I waited with interest to see if he could come out with any good old-fashioned Finnish names (of course he couldn't) but he did tell me he saw an 'Emily' (another <ahem> old person's name) just behind me and, strangely strange but oddly normal, there is a dearly departed Emily in my family . He didn't say anything that wasn't a trite platitude, though, so I wasn't convinced.

 

[Vixen]

Look at how many missing people and bodies are found by the public, especially dog walkers.

It is one reason why the river bank was not closed to the public, except when the police were there doing their bit and they only close that part. The police know there is a good chance she would be found by a member of the public.

Jason and his friend were not dog walkers. They found the body on day 24 because the tide was high and it had floated upwards to become visible amongst the reeds.

Credit where credit is due.

 

[catsmate]

From that link he found the body downstream from a bench her phone and dog were found and where she was last seen.


Not very psychic and one wonders why the police or other concerned persons didn't do a more thorough search of the area.

We have a thread on that....

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

I have three tarot card decks, the Tarot de Marseilles, Rider Waites and Aleister Crowley's Toth. I haven't done a reading for decades. I still have them because they don't take up much space and for the artistic merit. I've never believed I had any divination gifts. I became interested after going to the south of France for grape picking. We all gathered under a bridge at Montpelier to sample cheap wine. One evening there were some French African guys with a tarot deck and I went to watch them do a tarot reading. One of the cards dealt was the hanged man. The person having the reading went a whiter shade of pale in sheer fright. I had never seen such terror strike anyone so suddenly!

Back in the 90's a Glaswegian friend of mine who was as tough as nails and a wee bit crazy persuaded me to attend spiritualist meetings with her at a hall in Hornsey. I went along out of curiosity. The medium started throwing out names like 'Walter' and 'Albert' - typical names of grandparents! - and someone in the audience would shout out an acknowledgement. I waited with interest to see if he could come out with any good old-fashioned Finnish names (of course he couldn't) but he did tell me he saw an 'Emily' (another <ahem> old person's name) just behind me and, strangely strange but oddly normal, there is a dearly departed Emily in my family . He didn't say anything that wasn't a trite platitude, though, so I wasn't convinced.

Bolding mine...

I assume the Tarot reader explained that all that could mean is a decision waiting to be made, an event that is out of your control, uncertainty, lack of direction, a sacrifice to be made, the need to wait for the right moment to act, being stuck in a rut etc etc or whatever variant platitude the reader wants to fit in to the story being constructed by the other cards?

I have the Celtic Tarot by the way and very pretty it is too... but it's still all bollocks.

 

[Resume]

Seems to me the law of large numbers suggest lucky guesses like this will happen; I think there was a guy somewhere who tested this sort of nonsense and it never turned out to be magic.

Can't remember who that was.

 

[Mojo]

Jason and his friend were not dog walkers. They found the body on day 24 because the tide was high and it had floated upwards to become visible amongst the reeds.

Credit where credit is due.

Well done that Moon!

 

[Carrot Flower King]

Well done that Moon!

The influence of the moon, you say?

Gotta be all mystical and psychic...

I mean, just look at how many folk get caught out on the causeway to Lindisfarne for not using their psychic powers. Not to mention not reading the **** off huge signs that us (mostly) sensible people in the county pay for...

 

[catsmate]

I don't bother with hypothetical questions.

Let's stick to reality, which is a guy called Jason Rothwell did find a missing person's body and did claim he was a medium using his gift.

• If the body had been found by the police, we'd be saying, it was thanks to police skill.
• If the body was found by divers, we'd say it was thanks to the skill of the divers.
• If the body was found by Mr. Faulding, we'd be marvelling at what a skilled rescuer he was and his £55K sonar machine bloody marvellous!
• If the body was found by a medium using his skills, let's say, 'Thank you, Jason, your skills were great!'

Is there evidence that the supposed "medium" was one of the people who discovered the corpse?