Houla Massacre, Syria: What If?

[Childlike Empress]

Paul danahar is tweeting live on his way in to all qudeir

https://twitter.com/#!/pdanahar

He's with the UN observers.

 

[Childlike Empress]

They are on the way back. Bodies were gone, even cattle were slaughtered. Apparently two farm houses were concerned.

 

[I Ratant]

Hey geni, look at what happens to this tank:


"Uranium Anti Tank Missile"? Allahu Akhbar!

.
Depleted uranium comes in 30 mm size, used by the A-10 mostly.
It's probably not used in a LAW.
The shaped charge typical of a LAW could ignite the gas tank in the tank to create that fire.

 

[I Ratant]

They are on the way back. Bodies were gone, even cattle were slaughtered. Apparently two farm houses were concerned.

.
Sounds like Saul came back to get the last of the Amelekhites.

 

[Childlike Empress]

.
Depleted uranium comes in 30 mm size, used by the A-10 mostly.
It's probably not used in a LAW.
The shaped charge typical of a LAW could ignite the gas tank in the tank to create that fire.

I don't think the two parts of the video are directly related, but thanks, I am absolutely clueless when it comes to weaponry. That "fire" looks massively energetic, though.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I don't think the two parts of the video are directly related, but thanks, I am absolutely clueless when it comes to weaponry. That "fire" looks massively energetic, though.

The LAW launcher the men were handling could have caused the initial explosion, and ignition of ammunition stored inside the tank could have caused the spectacular explosion which followed.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Ah, I see. LAW is not an easy acronym to google but I figured it means Light Anti-Tank Weapon and this seems to be the thing (In this case I'm proud of my ignorance ).

 

[I Ratant]

The Commie equivalent is the RPG.
One of those took out an Abrams tank in Baghdad.
Great return on the investment!

 

[Toontown]

The UN upper echelons are quite annoyed with the Syrian regime. However, the UNSC is currently being paralyzed by Russia and China. Unless those recalcitrant arms merchants can be brought to heel, the task of returning the Syrian regime to it's stone age roots will fall to interested parties not acting under UN mandate.

All this speculation about whodunnit is a complete waste of time. Interested parties have already determined whodunnit, independently of any uneducated internet chitter-chatter and low-res Google Earth images.

 

[Caustic Logic]

All this speculation about whodunnit is a complete waste of time. Interested parties have already determined whodunnit, independently of any uneducated internet chitter-chatter and low-res Google Earth images.

Maybe, but SHOULD it be a waste? What if the upper echelons get it wrong and enthrone war criminals who launch a bloody purge? Oh well, not your country.

UN monitors find body parts at site of Syria massacre
New fighting erupts in Damascus between regime troops and rebels
http://www.cbc.ca/m/rich/news/story/2012/06/08/syria-troops-shelling-homs.html

It was the most independent observation yet of a mass killing that was earlier reported by activists and Syrian government officials, who exchanged blame over who exactly, hacked, stabbed, and burnt to death up to 78 men, women and children, in the rural village of Mazraat al-Qubair in the central Homs district on Wednesday.

But Ghosheh said that residents' testimonies of the mass killing was "conflicting," and that they needed to cross check the names of the missing and dead with the those supplied by nearby villagers. She said the village of Mazraat al-Qubair itself was "empty of the local inhabitants."

UN's Syria monitors sift through debris of al-Qubair attack
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/08/un-syria-monitors-al-qubair
(photo: Kofi Annan speaking with a survivor they found in the rubble, looks pretty messed up)

 

[Caustic Logic]

The fact that the Syrian government has not allowed independent investigators in to investigate and it's known agents have shot at some who tried to, re: the most recent massacre, come in to investigate pretty much settles it for me.

I'm not so sure they've kept investigators away. Media reports say they're not allowed around. Other times they are, and only talk to "activists."

This is what seals it for you?
Unarmed UN monitors shot at in Syria
Kofi Annan fears things he doesn't understand
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/06/07/syria-massacre-clinton.html

Unarmed United Nations monitors came under fire Thursday as they tried to reach the scene of the latest mass killing in Syria, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says.
...
Ban told the UN General Assembly that the monitors "were shot at with small arms" ... No observers were injured and it was not clear who was behind the shooting, the UN said.

Only regime forces in Hama can possibly have small arms? Not clear means unseen, off in the distance. The denial of access was apparently separate, and by the government, whom they dealt with up-close. It seems temporary, and today they've been in there. Although someone has removed the bodies.

So...it seems reasonable to you that these supposed "terrorists"

I think actually terrorist fits better than with "quotes" in this scenario you aren't taking seriously. Imagine real, murderous terrorists first and you MIGHT be able to get it.

have the ability to impersonate the Syrian military at will

How hard is that, really? Uniforms and machinery and slogans, stolen/copied. Gullible audience.

have large stashes of uniforms and equipment captured off of dead Syrian soldiers

Why not? They have been killing them all over for months now.,

yet can't be located for the actual Syrian military to attack?

Cease-fire, opposition territory, hands tied, safe-houses, moving at night, etc. They have some handicaps, but you'd think given the severity of things they might figure out how to get the guys soon.

Another question is why haven't the FSA or whoever runs security in the area been able to kill or arrest any of these roving killers? They aren't roving far. I can't identify Quseir on Google maps, but if its 20 km west of Hama, it's about the same distance due north of Houla. Ado-able march by quite likely the same unit. But I'll bet the list of Alawite names of those "responsible" is different each time.

All, thanks. Captain Sassy, the Arab League report was especially illustrative for the situation back when Assad was trying hard to get the world off his back. Too bad his forces are allegedly blowing that work away so insanely now.

And finally, the defectors cited by C.E. are the big story here. Assad-Pravda supposed Alawite witnesses? No, former rebels themselves who were sickened by the child-slashing false-flaggers they had joined up with. They're telling the FAZ (as I google translate it)

According to the eyewitnesses to the massacre had occurred during this period. Had been killed almost exclusively families and the Alawite minority Shiite Hulas, which is more than ninety percent are Sunni. Thus, several dozen members of a family were slaughtered, which had in recent years by Sunni converted to Shiite Islam. Killed were also members of the Alawite family Shomaliya and the family of a Sunni member of parliament, because this was considered a collaborator. Immediately after the massacre, the perpetrators would have filmed their victims, they issued a Sunni victims and spread the videos via the Internet. Although representatives of the Syrian government confirmed this version, but pointed out that the government had agreed not to speak publicly of Alawites and Sunnis. President Bashar al Assad is a member of the Alawites, the opposition is supported mainly by the Sunni majority.

Also:

Meanwhile, Syrian expatriate businessmen in the capital Doha qatarischen to finance the Syrian opposition and rebels, a fund set up $ 300 million. Mustafa Sabbagh, president of the Syrian Business Forum in exile, presented the Fund. Wael Mirza, Secretary General of the Syrian opposition National Council, said that half of the amount had been spent and partly flowed to the Free Syrian army.

$150 million already spent? On what? Tea and biscuits?

 

[Toontown]

Maybe, but SHOULD it be a waste?

I'm afraid so. It very much SHOULD be a waste of time for us to presume we can outperform the upper echelons in the whodunnit sweepstakes.

That's the whole idea behind having upper echelons. They are responsible for such matters.

What if the upper echelons get it wrong and enthrone war criminals who launch a bloody purge? Oh well, not your country.

What if you get it wrong? No harm done if you have no say in the matter. But if you did have a say in the matter, that would make you the upper echelon, wouldn't it?

 

[Childlike Empress]

And finally, the defectors cited by C.E. are the big story here.

For me, this settled the issue. A report by the government naming targeted families, a victim list by an opposition organization, a testimony by a boy reporting in the Guardian about his killed family members, those members are on the list, an Abkhazian/Russian journalist team with detailed witness interviews plausibly tying together their own testimony with that of the boy (as i've shown), naming other families on the list, where they lived and why they were targeted, and now FAZ with another set of testimonies (this paper still has journalistic standards and, as I've said, is not suspected of any sympathy to Assad). And bald men with beards all over it.

This was a massacre done by foreign Wahhabist terrorists, with help from local rebels, who used sectarian differences for their heinous crimes which they then filmed themselves and presented their victims to the UN observers to fool them and make it look like "the army" did it, to fuel the fire of already deceived international opinion for a "humanitarian" intervention. Given the proven false pictures and the long story of falsely attributed videos, I give no credence to the "shelling" part of the story at all.

 

[I Ratant]

For me, this settled the issue. A report by the government naming targeted families, a victim list by an opposition organization, a testimony by a boy reporting in the Guardian about his killed family members, those members are on the list, an Abkhazian/Russian journalist team with detailed witness interviews plausibly tying together their own testimony with that of the boy (as i've shown), naming other families on the list, where they lived and why they were targeted, and now FAZ with another set of testimonies (this paper still has journalistic standards and, as I've said, is not suspected of any sympathy to Assad). And bald men with beards all over it.

This was a massacre done by foreign Wahhabist terrorists, with help from local rebels, who used sectarian differences for their heinous crimes which they then filmed themselves and presented their victims to the UN observers to fool them and make it look like "the army" did it, to fuel the fire of already deceived international opinion for a "humanitarian" intervention. Given the proven false pictures and the long story of falsely attributed videos, I give no credence to the "shelling" part of the story at all.

.
That is a reasonable stance.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Well I for one am ready to stop defending this Fascist regime now that they've thumbed their nose and did this right before UN meetings yet again. Shoulda stopped while you were ahead, Bashar, b-bye now.

Nobody stops Assad and his folk unless they meet Russian terms. That is who holds the veto cards, at present, on any international action. More covert means from the eastern and southern infil routes into Syria from neighbors may stop him in a very messy and not quite precise way.

Recently the german-based syrian-orthodox nun Hatune Dogan, who runs a human-rights organization and received the highest honor from the German state (Bundesverdienstkreuz) for her work, returned from a month-long visit to Syria. She wasn't in the Homs area, but traveled across the country and interviewed witnesses and refugees. She says that she has testimony for at least 14 massacres done by the terrorists and blamed on the government. She also describes stories in which, like the ANNA witnesses report, the terrorists kill soldiers and put on their uniforms, use their vehicles, and film themselves carrying out atrocities. Interview with her here (German).

Interesting, wonder how critical thinking and this nun get along. Is she just repeating what she was told, or was she able to do some digging? Hard to discount, hard to take at face value. Fifty Fifty.

The sole reasoning behind claims of the regime's innocence is the regime's supposed fear of UN intervention - with the UNSC paralyzed by Russia and China.

A likely story.

The truth is, as usual, the opposite of the so-called "reasoning". The truth is the insurgency can ill afford a massacre on it's hands. The insurgency is badly in need of assistance.

Are you aware that the Saudis are providing such?

Hey geni, look at what happens to this tank:


"Uranium Anti Tank Missile"? Allahu Akhbar!

http://www.wandererverse.com/Armory/mundane/LAAW.htm

It is a LAAW, see the link, and what it hit looked like a BMP. (Not quite a tank, but an armored and armed vehicle).

The secondary explosion could have been fuel, ammo, or both. I have fired a LAAW. Good weapon. I did not fire it in combat, but did a number on an M113 hulk on the weapons range. Pretty easy to use.

Shaped charge, NOT DU.

The most likely source if that weapon was fired by insurgent hands is Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have been getting American hardware for about thirty years.

However, there are other possible sources, to include Israel, various factions in Iraq, and who knows who else ... each for their own motives and reasons.

It looks to me as though this game will keep playing out until the Russians decide it is over, or a critical point is nailed (Assad hit by hot lead and killed, for instance ... )

I keep my eyes on the Russian play ...

 

[Childlike Empress]

Interesting, wonder how critical thinking and this nun get along. Is she just repeating what she was told, or was she able to do some digging? Hard to discount, hard to take at face value. Fifty Fifty.

She traveled the country for over a month with a team of three from her organization, which is not a human rights org as I stated, but a humanitarian aid organization aimed at persecuted Christians. One story she tells about the terrorists killing soldiers and using their uniforms comes directly from a relative of her who is a soldier and hid under a car while this was happening to his comrades. Many contacts to the syrian-orthodox community. So I'd say her report is very credible, she knows the facts on the ground.

As to Russia's veto, don't forget that at the SCO meeting just a day or two ago the members including China released a joined statement opposing any foreign intervention in Syria. The line is clearly drawn in the sand. Another war of conquest based on lies - and they know the situation, the illusion the terrorists sell only flies, if anywhere, in the western propaganda bubble - will not be tolerated without consequences.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Another british journalist tried to go to al Qubair with UN observers. He reports: Set up to be shot in Syria's no man's land?

[...] We decide to ask for an escort out the safe way we came in. Both sides, both checkpoints will remember our vehicle.

Suddenly four men in a black car beckon us to follow. We move out behind.

We are led another route. Led in fact, straight into a free-fire zone. Told by the Free Syrian Army to follow a road that was blocked off in the middle of no-man’s-land.

At that point there was the crack of a bullet and one of the slower three-point turns I’ve experienced. We screamed off into the nearest side-street for cover.

Another dead-end.

There was no option but to drive back out onto the sniping ground and floor it back to the road we’d been led in on.

Predictably the black car was there which had led us to the trap. They roared off as soon as we re-appeared.

I’m quite clear the rebels deliberately set us up to be shot by the Syrian Army. Dead journos are bad for Damascus. [...]

Please, do not for one me moment believe that my experience with the rebels in al Qusair was a one-off.

This morning I received the following tweet:

“@alextomo I read your piece “set up to be shot in no mans land”, I can relate as I had that same experience in Al Zabadani during our tour.”

That was from Nawaf al Thani, who is a human rights lawyer and a member of the Arab League Observer mission to Syria earlier this year.

It has to make you wonder who else has had this experience when attempting to find out what is going on in rebel-held Syria.

In a war where they slit the throats of toddlers back to the spine, what’s the big deal in sending a van full of journalists into the killing zone?

It was nothing personal.

 

[geni]

There are all kinds of numbers thrown around. Apparently the SNC has "corrected" the numbers to 55, some say 25, all very murky. Does this names list from facebook have any credibility? Who is "ShaamNewsNetwork"?

Hard to say. Domain was registered 22-Feb-2011 but no other info. Site looks to be too complicated for a 1 man band buch not much more.

 

[geni]

She traveled the country for over a month with a team of three from her organization, which is not a human rights org as I stated, but a humanitarian aid organization aimed at persecuted Christians. One story she tells about the terrorists killing soldiers and using their uniforms comes directly from a relative of her who is a soldier and hid under a car while this was happening to his comrades. Many contacts to the syrian-orthodox community. So I'd say her report is very credible, she knows the facts on the ground.

"humanitarian aid organization aimed at persecuted Christians" Not remotely credible.

As to Russia's veto, don't forget that at the SCO meeting just a day or two ago the members including China released a joined statement opposing any foreign intervention in Syria. The line is clearly drawn in the sand. Another war of conquest based on lies - and they know the situation, the illusion the terrorists sell only flies, if anywhere, in the western propaganda bubble - will not be tolerated without consequences.

Funny. China in the final analysis doesn't care. Its just generally opposed to all forms of foreign intervention. Russia might be mildly annoyed but not enough to actualy do anything. Syria isn't exactly blessed with allies.

 

[Childlike Empress]

"humanitarian aid organization aimed at persecuted Christians" Not remotely credible.

How come? Because Christians lie, like Russians? Or do you think there are no persecuted Christians? Ask the Iraqi refugees in Syria.

edit: website here