Houla Massacre, Syria: What If?

[Caustic Logic]

Houla massacre investigation - select updates

Okay, apparently I was wrong about the "burning hospital" analysis, and CE caught it quickly. The vantage point seems to be quite a bit further north, possibly even in Kafr Laha(the town to the north). Just where the camera is and what's burning isn't clear, but we have a little window into the day: it's nearing sunset, around 6:3-7:00 PM, and quiet in the north of town. We have a timeline(s) page little windows like that can fit into (and will, once we set the location and thus the time, a bit better).

The alleged Alawite victims, however, remain a valid red flag. There may be some images of them laid out in one of the families' homes, still images, not video. The bodies number 10 (last paragraph here), as the Al-Shumeriyeh victims reportedly did.

And we might have caught the regime mortar technician whose been provoking the hell out of Turkey lately. He might have been working in Al-Houla the day of the massacre (and downplayed rebel military victories) there, right amongst the rebels, (we will find out where and when soon). Some men blasted by RPGs perhaps lay on the sidewalk, then we see it's one of the famous shelling scenes, a blast, smoke everywhere, and in the middle of it, a guy with a bazooka or RPG launcher (any experts handy?). See here.

Little counter-argument here, no detractors catching my mistakes, etc. Squeamish once specifics are involved, are we?

This is the pivotal massacre of 108 people, 49 of them mostly young children. Who was responsible for that fierce shelling, as seen there, who was taking over and burning which security posts, who was best situated then to do the same to homes ... does this not matter?

 

[Childlike Empress]

As to that video, CL, I posted about some of those scenes earlier:

In the same article is this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O--fhcZqXhQ

It shows a collection of scenes allegedly from Houla while it happened, apparently shown on Addounia TV. Seen some snippets before, but most not. We see how people film detonations in a building, we see dead people on the sidewalk, we see a killer (who doesn't wear Shi'a slogans on his forehead), more dead people in a dusty spot which could be the Al-Sayed crime scene (gut feeling), more dead people including a child with a syrian flag sweat band. German subtitles aren't very informative, you get the gist from watching. Authenticity can't be verified, of course.

The scene with the killer was also shown in the French documentary - with the killer cut out.

Yup, it's now a full month and a full page with nothing but the two of us talking to ourselves... But they're lurking judged by the view counts.

 

[Caustic Logic]

I was dimly aware of but unready to tackle the issue before.Don't know why.

As for the thread, I think it's attracting some outside viewers too. It's actually a platform.

For the record folks, this is the video we're talking about.

"Amateur video believed to show Houla massacre."
Resolution seems to be bumped down here, but he's not edited out anymore than the cameraman managed. You've all seen it around, it's famous and about the best proof there is that things were blowing up in Taldou the day of the massacre. There's little doubt, in fact, that's the case.

Here's our Houla massacrer:

Why is he walking right among the opposition like they're on different parts of the same team? Is he Shabiha, or regular army, plainclothes? Deep cover false-flagger, to get the rebels blamed by internet sleuths?

 

[Caustic Logic]

I was curious if any of the many nay-sayers here can use the power of their own bias to discern clues we might be missing that these guys are loyalist thugs. It's happening on north Saad Street, here, about 6:35 pm (timestamp - rough sunlight reading says 6:18) on the massacre day. One of the dead, at least (and maybe two) look like victims of that same RPG-bazooka holding guy. Very killed. One of the four ... less dead-seeming.

The guys loading the bodies look like civilian dudes, not even fighters, but opposition-ish. And they don't even try to stop the madman's rampage, mostly trying to ignore him instead of tackling him or something. They all seem to be on the same team. So can anyone find a good reason to think it's the pro-government-massacre team?

Also, as a side-note, the four bodies scooped up here wound up displayed at one of the massacre crime scenes, down at the south end of Saad street, along with what seems to be two small families with kids, for 16+ bodies in that room. Not sure if that's only post-massacre padding by the discovering rebels, or a deeper clue.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Updates, aka facts on the ground: We've discovered about eight more witnesses for a rebel attack, all showing their faces, totally consistent, no one smiling or busting up like so often happens in rebel "here's what happened" videos. speaking to ANNA news, aired May 27 (Russian).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpgQ2l5CbNA

A SANA English video shows parts of that translated to English (6:00), as well as some massacre crime scenes (including the Alawites in Al-Shumeriyeh? A video I've never seen rebels show, 6:25), burnt homes, burnt fields, and general destruction of the rebel onslaught.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX7n0U5hvWQ

A segment of that is seen in a video from one of the rebel brigades there. They have many videos we're starting to go through and make sense of. This one shows an apparent live firefight from an alleyway on Main Street, at about sunset (7:30 or so PM). This graphic shows the camera location and field of view shown when looking SW at 0:33. The three blue lines there line up building corners, a light pole, a large tree, and the middle one points roughly to the source of the smoke billowing, lining up with the near building's SE corner - exactly on a line with the trees behind the hospital, reported burnt, by non-rebel witnesses, after the rebels conquered the hospital around 4pm.

If this is a real fire fight with standing gov. forces, it means the Qaws unit held on for a while anyway. Military intel a bit north of this spot was overrun hours earlier. How the Qaws stood at 10-11 PM and later - the time of the Al-Sayed massacres south of them (but north of the hospital) - another story. The CoI decided they remained in charge, since the mobile unit was there (again? still?) the next morning.

But the hospital, despite the CoI's unexplained decision to the contrary, would seem quite likely taken down as reported. The rebels and their alleged witnesses never mentioned it.

ETA: I've been over-eager once before about the hospital, of course, looking for a glimpse of that smoke (or lack of) and I figured it out again ten minutes before typing that. Inviting de-bunks and second-opinions, from CE, the naysayers and faith-based rebel-story supporters, the silent majority of lurkers, anyone. Here's the Google Maps location to compare with the video. Again, our notes on the scene, to get a feel for the surroundings.

 

[Caustic Logic]

"Amateur video believed to show Houla massacre..."
"the video shows more shells crashing down..."

Compare:

(gore is present but minimized by artful edits)

BTW this stabilization took a lot of dang work but I think it looks pretty cool and clarifies the point. The cartoon captions, especially at the end, are clearly to show what I read in the scene. You can't say they aren't reasonable. Especially with the music and everything, why doesn't this cast a spooky light on the Houla massacre happening down that road, even deeper into newly-acquired, rebel-held territory?

Happy Halloween. Pass it around.

Any other thoughts on what we're seeing here? I think it could be consistent with an effort to clear the streets of as many witnesses as possible, mostly by making them want to cower deep within their homes, as the Shabiha gathered the dead to drive north to the mosque in their rebel trucks. It does seem a little early for that, however, being only 6:15 or so (BTW I got that mixed-up above-6:35 enters nowhere-visual estimate, around 6:00, careful reading, app 6:15 to 6:20). Bodies weren't trucked up, it seems, until like 10:00 (don't quote me on that)

 

[Caustic Logic]

A later note on the video content above. I was too busy on the technical part and didn't make clear note of everything we can see here, prior to making the video. One thing I missed is the rocket man's apparent white headscarf (Khafiyeh). He seems to be wearing one as he falls from the recoil (left), and not wearing it when he gets back up (right).

Does that more suggest a rebel guy or a Shabiha type?

And wait 'til you see part two of this. Some bizarre stuff connected. By the middle of next week at the latest I'll have that up.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Lot of cowards here.

Recall we started this thread almost right off with the crucial artillery claim. It's not what killed the people, by and large, but it was involved, and that proved government guilt for all of it. The best evidence the BBC analyst (Forbes McKenzie was it?) could find was artillery tracks suggesting movement there the day before, within range. But those were actually dirt roads in a small tree farm that had been there for months, at least.

Other satellite images used by rebel boosters show various building damage as proof-almost all of it invisible from above (no roof damage) and right on the main street. Street level views we now have show homes at the both massacre site areas, gov. security posts, and all along Main Street, marked by "shelling" that's all horizontal, and consistent with RPGs, and heavy rounds from anti-aircraft guns (the rest could be artillery OR mortars fired from Main Street and Saad Street, or any of the areas rebels were before they got there, if within range). Walls are holed galore, but roofs are intact.

Posts and homes were torched, too uniformly to be anything other than arson. Trees in the middle of the street are mowed down, light poles leaning askew, lines torn down in many spots. Pro-government signs torn down or shot full of holes. Fields were torched.

We have videos of rebels firing RPGs around town that same day (though admittedly not of their Libya-style pickup-truck attack, as reported). The military intel HQ and the woods behind the hospital both seem to be burning. The Qaws post was said to hold, despite its unique ability to drive away, and the frontline remained north of it. But we know it wasn't very far north, and the arches themselves have bullet holes in their south face. We can see the government only the next day, struggling to regain control after something unusual the previous day...

And that was the same exact day of this murky massacre, that ended with rebels in control of the both the city at large and of lots of dead bodies killed in a cruel and Islamo-nihilist fashion. And stories about shelling a protest, then the army letting in the Shabiha who went straight to suspect homes chanting Alawite slogans, each time killing everyone inside except the miracle survivor.

Does 2 + 2 not equal 4? Who contests what in the above run-down, and requests more info to explain it? (I haven't explained all of that here yet, and of course most people don't catch everything anyway)

 

[Caustic Logic]

Bump for the cowards.

 

[Caustic Logic]

By cowards I meant all those people who'd like to disagree but can't seem to speak up. They could challenge the work we've done, or better yet to give it its due. It's as if people think they'd go to jail for being seen supporting a "pro-Assad" thought, and as if people fear they wouldn't be able to make an anti-Assad point out of the Houla massacre any longer.

The facts on the ground suggest the government story, with its rebel conquest of Taldou and then a rebel-orchestrated massacre, is closest to the truth. The opposition version still has lots of believers and its own kind of logic, but the way it dances around and fails to acknowledge the rebel offensive is, let's say, a troubling sign.

Yet still the only actions taken are to kick out Syria's diplomats, toughen sanctions, and increase aid to the rebels - punishing the victims while rewarding the aggressor, and showing them how to secure more support for them and demonization for the government. Mazraat al-Qubeir and other such very similar massacres followed...

 

[Caustic Logic]

I should finally make a note here, since it's been four days. Anyone trying to follow the links here, mostly to A Closer Look on Syria, will notice the site just seems to not exist. And that is so, not just our site all of Wikinet.org, from Early Saturday at least.

The site's gone down a lot before, but never like this. It seems unlikely the hurricane had anything at all to do with it. It was a small site, and maybe someone decided it was expendable to accidentally delete the most popular site there, and never to resurface. Either way, enough is enough, and we're working on a new place for the info, which CE has saved except the last few additions, and will get it re-built with new versions of all the old pages. You'll have to know to go look that subject up on the new site instead, as every link in here will likely remain dead.

The investigation is alive, but on pause, as we can't review the existing stuff and keep building without the dang site. It has slowed us down for sure.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Then before day six, it rises from the dead! Everyone, update your bookmarks.

http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Main_Page

The graphics are mostly on my computer and might take while to re-appear, but most of the rest of it is already up, it seems. CE should really get a prize for all her work managing that. A cash prize.

Someone who feels bad for having nothing to say, about our surprisingly potent marshaling of the evidence for this "turning point" massacre, should pony up. I've paid part of my dues already, and can finally work on the rest again.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

Yup, it's now a full month and a full page with nothing but the two of us talking to ourselves... But they're lurking judged by the view counts.

I think it's attracting some outside viewers too. It's actually a platform.

Keep it up!

I still check the thread when it's bumped.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

Also are you guys making sure to copy and save the various videos, links to articles etc. that you're finding? The internet can be a fickle bitch... and you wouldn't want some of your more important links to 404 on you...

 

[Caustic Logic]

Also are you guys making sure to copy and save the various videos, links to articles etc. that you're finding? The internet can be a fickle bitch... and you wouldn't want some of your more important links to 404 on you...

Oh, now you say something. We may have lost a bit, with a strange early flushing of Google's user content caches, even one out just now evaporated (on my end anyway). Nothing irreperable, but things keep slowing us down. Because of my bad planning. And CE's, a little at the end.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

You should look at ways to save your videos, then set up your own youtube channel and post them there. That way even if you lose your youtube account you can just set up another one and post the videos again.

 

[Caustic Logic]

No videos are affected. I've only really done one now on Syria at all. It's on my youtube channel and of course saved locally. A video takes waaaay too much work the way I do it to be any other way.

All others are others', and the links with text are apparently all okay. It's only a couple of odd pages, including at least two important ones (the Saad st. incident and the Shumeriyeh/Shomaliya victims page), three new ones I just started, some ambitious additions to the Ali Al-Sayed page, and some lesser updates, that seem totally lost. They got our guard down by preventing the usual bi-weekly outage. It lulled to CE into understandably getting lazy with making regular backups. Tricky, those impersonal fates.

The pictures, all saved locally. I just uploaded about 50-75 of them, I think, the other 100 whatever later. Not too bad really and I'm just kind of freshly impressed again with everything. We do kick ass, and thanks for noting it. Cheers!

 

[Childlike Empress]

I think the Capt'n is talking about the evidence videos, of the "rebels" celebrating in front of destroyed army vehicles on main street and stuff. I think our third contributor has saved some, but that is certainly good advise and something we should talk about (not here). Problem is that part of the evidence is who uploaded it, and when.

 

[Caustic Logic]

I think the Capt'n is talking about the evidence videos, of the "rebels" celebrating in front of destroyed army vehicles on main street and stuff. I think our third contributor has saved some, but that is certainly good advise and something we should talk about (not here). Problem is that part of the evidence is who uploaded it, and when.

Yeah, links don't last forever. I've saved a lot of them, but IX converter just doesn't work sometimes, and the Safari backdoor only works on non-Youtube videos. I think between me and Petri and maybe you we have all the important ones saved and a lot of the maybe important ones. If they get mentioned in an article, they'll have the info included. I've been thinking we could use a huge list of videos, cited and maybe not yet, with all details (MediaInfo time if applicable), etc. We might need interns though.

My main concern is having it to see if someone realizes it's embarrassing and pulls it. But I could also upload it to foil their move, if it's saved.

 

[Caustic Logic]

There was less missing, all told, than I thought. Everyone but me contributed to the saving of this page I wrote on the alleged Alawite victims, minus a few small, late additions. I just restored that (an image, I think, was all) and added notes on another possible match with another array of victims (two adults and at least three small kids, all shown in situ on SANA video only). It's an extremely sad and slightly gory scene, but the thing that I'm curious about can be shown here. This Arabic slogan is painted on the wall, just by the bullet-holes and blood-spray. Anyone capable of reading it or getting a translation from a friend?