Georgia has new gun law.

[casebro]

We had a whole thread about a study (pdf warning) that showed just that in Missouri

I kind of thought the way they used ten years of history to compare to only two years after the change was a little odd. So(#32) I followed your link to the thread. I cut a pasted a post from that thread.


Quote: Aepervious: I am anti gun, but the article does not look good to me at least from the summary I read.

here is the Missouri murder rate :

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htm

Now I did not find a split on how those murder were made, but here look at the variation :

1998 399
1999 359
2000 347
2001 372
2002 331
2003 289
2004 354
2005 402
2006 368
2007 385
2008 456
2009 387
2010 420
2011 366
2012 389

Plotted this looks like this :



There is so much variance on murder from year to year, that I have to question the claim on 60 murder being DUE to the law repeal. The law might have had an impact, but comparing 2004-2007 and 2008-2012 I see a huge variance and yet similar numbers nowhere near 60 more and yet 2011 had even less murder than all year in that decade.

In fact the rise started hugely in 2003 when it went 289 to 385 in 2007, when globally murder rate dropped. [/Q]

So I guess I'm just not seeing the Wild West, blood running in the streets, effect of that change either.

But thanks for posting the links.

 

[Emily's Cat]

I am rather curious on how Georgia can overrule the TSA on air travel. Not that I care as I loathe the TSA for all the idiocy they have done and their general incompetence, just curious.

It can't, and it doesn't. Seriously, didn't any of you raise a skeptical eyebrow at what thaiboxerken posted and say to yourselves "that sounds rather silly" and go read the bill yourselves!

This bill prohibits a person from knowingly carrying a weapon into restricted access or security areas of commercial airports. License holders who violate this provision are guilty of a misdemeanor unless upon being notified at a screening checkpoint or secure access area that they are in possession of a weapon, the license holder immediately leaves the area. Non-license holders who violate this provision are guilty of a misdemeanor.

All it does is allow for license holders to make a mistake without automatically going to jail. But they're not overruling the TSA in any fashion at all.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Let's see...

OMG someone else who actually read it! I just don't know what to say!

 

[maxpower1227]

Rose all through the 80s and 90s, peak in 1999, currently higher than before the rise. Can't you read a graph?

The claim was that the number of executions rose after Three Strikes laws "became common", so we have to determine when that was. I'm not sure if there necessarily was a point when they suddenly "became common". From Wiki:

The first true "three-strikes" law was passed in 1993, when Washington state voters approved Initiative 593. California passed its own in 1994, when their voters passed Proposition 184[4] by an overwhelming majority, with 72% in favor and 28% against. The initiative proposed to the voters had the title of Three Strikes and You're Out, referring to de facto life imprisonment after being convicted of three violent or serious felonies which are listed under California Criminal Code section 1192.7.[5]

The concept swiftly spread to other states, but none of them chose to adopt a law as sweeping as California's. By 2004, twenty-six states and the federal government had laws that satisfy the general criteria for designation as "three-strikes" statutes

 

[Cl1mh4224rd]

If gun advocates are correct, and more guns equals less crime, then Georgia should see a dramatic drop in crime in relation to the rest of the country. If crime goes up, and especially gun crime, then will people rethink this? I sort of doubt it, but it's a perfect experiment.

Nah. It would just mean that Georgia doesn't have enough guns to protect against the guns that Georgia already has.

 

[plague311]

That's great. It doesn't. You really ought to read it yourself instead of taking someone else's word for it.

Wow, Thanks Emily! I totally didn't acknowledge that in another post.

ETA: And it still gives them the right to bring a gun on campus as long as they have written permission, which in my opinion is still stupid. That's why it's my opinion though. Thanks for double checking me.

 

[catsmate]

I wouldn't expect much of a spike in gun murders. Accidental shootings and suicides seem the more likely candidates for increase.

This. Plus a number of drunken/angry nuts killing someone before they have time to calm down.

 

[Upchurch]

Can you show me any studies that show how that happened in other areas that loosened gun laws? Please?

eta- Pretty please?

We had a whole thread about a study (pdf warning) that showed just that in Missouri

I kind of thought the way they used ten years of history to compare to only two years after the change was a little odd. So(#32) I followed your link to the thread. I cut a pasted a post from that thread.


Quote:{snip}[/Q]

So I guess I'm just not seeing the Wild West, blood running in the streets, effect of that change either.

But thanks for posting the links.

Yes, I can see how you could value the opinion of some guy on the internet who took a few minutes to google some numbers over a peer-reviewed study that appears in an academic journal. Those professional researchers probably don't know how to analyze numbers and control for extraneous variables as well as some anonymous guy whose opinion reaffirms your position.

Oh, and way to move the goal posts at the end there.

 

[theprestige]

According to the New York Times:

Tennessee is one of four states, along with Arizona, Georgia and Virginia, that recently enacted laws explicitly allowing loaded guns in bars. (Eighteen other states allow weapons in restaurants that serve alcohol.)

...

20 other states -- New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts among them... appearing by default to allow those with permits to carry guns into establishments that serve alcohol...

So I guess we can probably make an informed estimate of how many bar-related gun incidents Georgia should expect as a result of this new law.

The NYT did manage to cite: "... a recent shooting in Virginia where a customer who had a permit to carry a concealed weapon shot himself in the leg while drinking beer at a restaurant."

So I'm guessing that Georgia's increase in bar-related gun incidents from this new law will be "practically zero".

I mean, how often in the past 100 years has a licensed carrier used a gun in a bar, other than in lawful self-defense? Maybe once? So much hand-wringing in this thread--show me the stats!

 

[BStrong]

http://www.businessinsider.com/gun-deaths-in-florida-increased-with-stand-your-ground-2014-2



But let's let this one play out and see how it goes. All we have to do is avoid Georgia for the next ten years and we'll be fine.

SYG laws aren't concealed carry related per se.

In every jurisdiction that went from the "may-issue" concealed carry policy to "shall-issue," the prediction has been that mayhem on a grand scale would be the result, and after the law goes into effect that predicted result doesn't prove out.

I predict nothing much will change in GA if this law goes into effect.

Personally I don't like firearms mixed with alcohol or drugs under any circumstances, but I'm willing to believe that responsible folks can carry and not drink, and if they do and commit acts related to their carry of a firearm they should face serious criminal or civil consequences.

 

[theprestige]

And it still gives them the right to bring a gun on campus as long as they have written permission,

Written permission, safety training, a gun from the approved list, a current license, and no history of mental or emotional instability. And nobody is required to give them written permission anyway.

which in my opinion is still stupid.

What exactly is stupid about it?

 

[Ranb]

What exactly is stupid about it?

Federal and state police officers, GA prosecuting attorneys, correctional facility officers, campus police or security, state medical examiners, coroners and their investigators are already allowed by GA law to carry firearms on school property, so if other trained and authorized individuals are added to the list, it's just, well, you know, stupid.

That's the way it works here on jref. If we disagree with something gun related and can't give a rational reason why, it's just stupid; or illegal; or a rant if we ask for evidence. Never mind that no one has any reason to believe that school administrators are about to authorize a flood of legally carried guns in their schools.

Ranb

 

[Darth Rotor]

The Georgia Senate just wants to ensure that when Atlanta falls in the upcoming zombie apocalypse, it's citizens are properly armed to protect themselves.

A rare legislative body that is thinking well into the future, not just the next election cycle.

Oh, wait ...

 

[Gallstones]

That's a straw man. I predict gun murders will rise in Georgia, or if they fall, it be because they fall nationwide but will fall much slower in Georgia than in other states. Certainly if I'm wrong, this thread will be here for you to gloat over.

THIS is the strawman.

 

[elbe]

THIS is the strawman.

Is it? How?

 

[Gallstones]

But as it continues to widen will that effect the way SYG functions in Georgia? Allowing guns in schools, in my opinion, is quite possibly the dumbest thing I have ever heard of in my entire life. I can't even imagine a situation where it's justified (without there being an attack, obviously, or a police response to a situation). That's my own personal opinion. If I found out there were armed parents walking into my son's school and no one was doing anything to change or stop it I would immediately pull my son from that school and send him elsewhere. It's moronic.

The thing that bothers me about these photos is that they are only boys, no girls.

 

[Gallstones]

Is it? How?

Because the prediction is wrong and relies on fear rather than fact.
It assumes that a thing will get worse for no reason other than that the author feels that it will.

 

[elbe]

Because the prediction is wrong and relies on fear rather than fact.

I'm still not sure how that can be a strawman. It's a prediction, it can't exactly be right or wrong until the event or period of time have passed. I can predict that the law will directly result in a brand new toksatsu series to air, but that's not a strawman, it's just a prediction.

To simplify Unabogie's prediction appears to basically be that he believes the first derivative of the delta of the gun murder statistic will be positive. Whether that relies on fear or fact still doesn't make it a strawman.

That you don't agree with him is, of course, your business, but you shouldn't just claim it to be something it's not.

 

[Gallstones]

To me that wouldn't be on the "individual" level, it would be a general level. Just a sign that relates to everyone. When I think "individual" level, I think that specific individual. I've seen previously that laws are put in place to fix a situation. What exactly was "broken" before these changes?

Do you live in Georgia?

 

[Gallstones]

I've really no problem with this new law, mostly because it doesn't affect me. I'd just like to use it to point and laugh at the "they're a cummin' for ur gunzz" crowd.

Uh, no. They're not.

Have you talked to anyone from New Jersey, New York, Connecticut or California?