Brexit: Now What? Part III

[Aepervius]

Let's paraphrase this a bit differently:
UK needs a good Brexit deal and can't possibly afford to leave without any.

EU on the other hand can make do without any deal with UK at all. The loss of business with UK could be compensated in full with business from UK moving to EU ...

McHrozni

That is the "best" and unlikely scenario. All economic prediction I saw so far predict that both will be worst off after a hard Brexit, with EU less worst off due to some market absorption and some firm moving, and no one really happy.

 

[ViewsofMars]

Just split http:\\ from rest of URL and it will let you post them as simple text. We'll then fix them in reply.

It isn't working yet. I still have to wait until I have 15 posts. Let me see what I can do. Hummmmm. . . I'm thinking ~ ~ ~ see if this helps. I'll do it in the order I previous sent. Try this:

1. Go to Pub Med. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28052896

2. Go to Pub Med @ Nature.com and then put in their search engine NATURE PHOTONICS | EDITORIAL

3. Go to IOP Science and put in the name of the article.

I hope that works out. It's late and I'm tired. It's 12.33 am in the morning. My hound is sleeping on the footon in my office. I'm going to a have a hard time waking her up.

 

[McHrozni]

That is the "best" and unlikely scenario. All economic prediction I saw so far predict that both will be worst off after a hard Brexit, with EU less worst off due to some market absorption and some firm moving, and no one really happy.

This really depends on many factors, not least of all when will the market react to Brexit. If the market senses a hard Brexit, the firms will begin to move to greener shores during negotiations. This will empower EU to push harder, regardless of the end result.

It is true though that EU will, in all likelihood, also suffer economically from a hard Brexit. Different countries will be affected in different ways. Ireland is already preparing for major influx of business from UK. Many decisions were already made apparently, they just aren't public yet.

http://www.politico.eu/article/irish-minister-financial-firms-will-move-out-of-london/

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

University of Oxford is opening a French campus in response to Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/educatio...niversity-set-break-700-years-tradition-open/

Needless to say, this will benefit France more than it will UK.

McHrozni

 

[Garrison]

Of course May and her merry band of Brexiteers still have to negotiate the House of Lords and that will be far from easy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39020260#comment_126409069

Amusing to see the comments section in that article. All those Brexiteers so determined to have the sovereignty of our parliament restored. Now railing against it when it starts asking all the awkward questions they are so afraid of.

 

[McHrozni]

Of course May and her merry band of Brexiteers still have to negotiate the House of Lords and that will be far from easy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39020260#comment_126409069

Amusing to see the comments section in that article. All those Brexiteers so determined to have the sovereignty of our parliament restored. Now railing against it when it starts asking all the awkward questions they are so afraid of.

Some articles regarding Brexit should be red repeatedly.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...xit-voters-trigger-constitutional-crisis.html

A judge that ordered the Parliament to vote on the matter of Brexit was named an "enemy of the people" back in November. How's that for democratic deficit?

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Some articles regarding Brexit should be red repeatedly.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...xit-voters-trigger-constitutional-crisis.html

A judge that ordered the Parliament to vote on the matter of Brexit was named an "enemy of the people" back in November. How's that for democratic deficit?

McHrozni

A 52/48 result in a non-binding referendum, where it wasn't clear what the Leave model (soft, hard, diamond, £350m a week for the NHS) was is the inviolable will of the people. Anyone attempting to in any way temper a diamond-hard Brexit is an enemy of the people, whether they're a judge or a member of the House of Lords.

In part this is true. Both the judges and certain members of the House of Lords will look at the the evidence and provide a considered, dispassionate verdict. This runs absolutely contrary to the current populist model of politics in which experts can be safely ignored, where feelings are more important than facts and where consequences are something that can either be ignored or passed to someone else to sort out. In that regard they are enemies of the people - thank goodness !

edited to add.....

Remember who will actually benefit from Brexit. It won't be the working man or woman who will have their hours increased, wages cut and protections gutted in the name of making a post-Brexit Britain more competitive. It's not the retiree who will see increasing stress on the NHS as funds dry up and staff is harder to find or whose "triple lock" pension starts to come under scrutiny. It's not the young person who has seen the vistas of opportunity that the EU used to provide shrink and who has to deal with ever reducing social and economic mobility.

No, the ones to benefit from Brexit are those wealthy enough to benefit handsomely from the corporate and personal tax cuts for the wealthy. Any additional costs they may incur in the post-Brexit world will be more than offset by those tax cuts. I'm not entirely sure whether I'm one of them. If my business (selling services to the EU) survives Brexit then it's likely that I am. If it doesn't then it's touch and go.

 

[McHrozni]

A 52/48 result in a non-binding referendum, where it wasn't clear what the Leave model (soft, hard, diamond, £350m a week for the NHS) was is the inviolable will of the people. Anyone attempting to in any way temper a diamond-hard Brexit is an enemy of the people, whether they're a judge or a member of the House of Lords.

In part this is true. Both the judges and certain members of the House of Lords will look at the the evidence and provide a considered, dispassionate verdict. This runs absolutely contrary to the current populist model of politics in which experts can be safely ignored, where feelings are more important than facts and where consequences are something that can either be ignored or passed to someone else to sort out. In that regard they are enemies of the people - thank goodness !

The enemies of 51.9% of the people at any rate.

Theresa May was seen in the Lords chamber during discussion - the first such instance in living memory. She is either fanatically devoted to seeing Brexit through, come hell or high water, or else she is determined to make it into the biggest mess in history, not just the biggest mess in Britain.

There is a third option, which is quite possibly the most plausible: it's a sign of weakness. Despite the loyal vote in commons, there could be significant internal turmoil. Corbyn, in his act of treason, ensured the loyalty of her MPs because rebellion was pointless at the time. If the House of Lords does what is it supposed to in such case and amend the bill to ensure meaningful parliamentary oversight over Brexit, and he switched to oppose her at some point as a result, her entire coalition could crumble to dust.

Take note, the fevered pitch, flailing, an utter lack of willingness to accept any criticism, dismissing any opposition, refusing to debate the issues and other features of Brexitards are not signs of strength, but of weakness.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Of course May and her merry band of Brexiteers still have to negotiate the House of Lords and that will be far from easy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39020260#comment_126409069

Amusing to see the comments section in that article. All those Brexiteers so determined to have the sovereignty of our parliament restored. Now railing against it when it starts asking all the awkward questions they are so afraid of.

The issue was never sovereignty it was about getting their right wing bs implemented. If the eU had been anti human rights anti movement of people anti refugee anti workers rights etc they would have loved it

 

[The Don]

The enemies of 51.9% of the people at any rate.

Theresa May was seen in the Lords chamber during discussion - the first such instance in living memory. She is either fanatically devoted to seeing Brexit through, come hell or high water, or else she is determined to make it into the biggest mess in history, not just the biggest mess in Britain.

McHrozni

Definitely option 1 IMO.....

Out-out-out is what she wants and she won't be happy until she gets it - whatever the cost for the country

 

[McHrozni]

Definitely option 1 IMO.....

Out-out-out is what she wants and she won't be happy until she gets it - whatever the cost for the country

Maybe, but I think her behavior also reveals a realization her position is weak, very weak. If Corbyn the Traitor had strongly opposed Brexit on her terms and sought to stop it dead in the tracks, he most likely would have succeeded. She is also still quite far from her goal, if Lords do pass amendments that would make the government accountable and refuse to bulge on them, the ping-pong between Commons and Lords could last for quite a while - and that's only if Traitor continues to play on her side. If he were to break, she might end up having to debate the merits of a hard Brexit, which is a total no-go zone, honestly.

The surest way to break such a deadlock is to hold another referendum so the public can decide ... which is something she must desperately avoid if your analysis of her intentions are indeed correct.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Maybe, but I think her behavior also reveals a realization her position is weak, very weak.

You're right, it should be weak but the absence of an English opposition makes it strong.

If Corbyn the Traitor had strongly opposed Brexit on her terms and sought to stop it dead in the tracks, he most likely would have succeeded.

Well Brexit is what he personally wants and the upcoming by-elections apparently need him to be pro-Brexit.

She is also still quite far from her goal, if Lords do pass amendments that would make the government accountable and refuse to bulge on them, the ping-pong between Commons and Lords could last for quite a while

It could, but the unelected House of Lords will, IMO, be loath to go against the overwhelming will of (52% of 77%) the people

- and that's only if Traitor continues to play on her side. If he were to break, she might end up having to debate the merits of a hard Brexit, which is a total no-go zone, honestly.

For different reasons he is equally wedded to Brexit

The surest way to break such a deadlock is to hold another referendum so the public can decide ... which is something she must desperately avoid if your analysis of her intentions are indeed correct.

McHrozni

Maybe, maybe not. The Great British Public have a worrying tendency to make alarming decisions.

 

[McHrozni]

You're right, it should be weak but the absence of an English opposition makes it strong.

I disagree. She is not acting from a position of strength, but of weakness. If she had a strong suit she would've put Brexit to parliamentary vote six months ago. She wouldn't need to worry about House of Lords, let them debate in peace for as long as they want, they would come to the same conclusions as she did and give her what she wanted.

Instead pro-her media throws a tantrum every time a person in power questions her chosen path. Her patsy even treated to abolish the House of Lords if it doesn't bow down to her power. These are not actions you take when your position is strong, but when it is weak and you wish to project the illusion of strength. It works well enough on the weak-minded to be useful.

Well Brexit is what he personally wants and the upcoming by-elections apparently need him to be pro-Brexit.

Yeah, yeah. I'll call him Traitor from now on.

It could, but the unelected House of Lords will, IMO, be loath to go against the overwhelming will of (52% of 77%) the people

We'll see. Your fatalism is certainly not productive, I'll tell you that

For different reasons he is equally wedded to Brexit

Apparently so, but is he also wedded to the idea of giving Theresa May the final say in all matters regarding Brexit? He did make a pitiful attempt at amending the Brexit bill, would he object to those same amendments if the House of Lords push them through?

Some of them would scuttle any hopes for a useful hard Brexit, making it far more likely Theresa May would eventually settle on a soft one.

Maybe, maybe not. The Great British Public have a worrying tendency to make alarming decisions.

Ah, I don't know. If the referendum had four choices, from Norway model to out-out-out, which one is most likely to win?

Remember, 48.1% of voters wanted Bremain, so you can count on it getting more than the prescribed 25%. All it needs to do is to score better than any of the other three. It's a fairly good shot at at least preventing a disaster in the making. UK would probably rejoin the EU in a decade or two in that eventuality, and that would be that.

If it fails, then you're most likely screwed. But that's also the case if Theresa May has her way and EU doesn't bend to her will. Good luck with that.

McHrozni

 

[Blue Bubble]

This is for, ahem, a "friend"

Let us imagine a scenario where Brexit actually happens, and Scotland (and perhaps Northern Ireland) exits the UK, and remains in the European Union (by whatever means). What do you think would happen to house prices in Scotland ? Would there be a massive rush of people on the remain side into Scotland ?

 

[McHrozni]

This is for, ahem, a "friend"

Let us imagine a scenario where Brexit actually happens, and Scotland (and perhaps Northern Ireland) exits the UK, and remains in the European Union (by whatever means). What do you think would happen to house prices in Scotland ? Would there be a massive rush of people on the remain side into Scotland ?

Many would probably be content with dual citizenship, as with Ireland.

England would be more concerned by businesses seeking to remain in EU and relocating there. It would be painful.

McHrozni

 

[Lothian]

This is for, ahem, a "friend"

Let us imagine a scenario where Brexit actually happens, and Scotland (and perhaps Northern Ireland) exits the UK, and remains in the European Union (by whatever means). What do you think would happen to house prices in Scotland? Would there be a massive rush of people on the remain side into Scotland ?

House prices are affected by demand and change in demand is often driven by jobs. If in the scenario you describe you could attract businesses to relocate to remain in Europe it may affect demand. Of course other businesses may seek to leave the EU and would move from Scotland to England.

I guess it depends who are the big employers near your 'Friend's' house and how much industrial or commercial land is available nearby.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

This is for, ahem, a "friend"

Let us imagine a scenario where Brexit actually happens, and Scotland (and perhaps Northern Ireland) exits the UK, and remains in the European Union (by whatever means). What do you think would happen to house prices in Scotland ? Would there be a massive rush of people on the remain side into Scotland ?

Hard to say. I doubt things would be peaches and cream in a newly independent Scotland either initially. Plus a hard border between Scotland and England was never part of the plan.

You wouldn't be able to live in Scotland and work in Newcastle I think and there is still an issue of employment opportunities.

If you saw a lot of relocation of business to Scotland it might get interesting but I think that would be mostly limited to the financial sector and the like.

 

[The Don]

If you saw a lot of relocation of business to Scotland it might get interesting but I think that would be mostly limited to the financial sector and the like.

Depends on what you mean by "the like". For example, businesses like mine which sell highly skilled individuals into the EU would find life a lot easier in Scotland than we're likely to find it in rUK. Depending on the Brexit deal, large swathes of the UK service industry could find things a lot better in Scotland (or Ireland, but Ireland is far more expensive and the IMO the weather is (even) worse) post Brexit.

If Theresa gets her way and it's a diamond-hard out-out-out Brexit then it's feasible that the most mobile parts of high value-add segments of the UK service industry might be beating a path northward.

As regards a hard border between England and Scotland, we could see a return of a version the Border Reivers but more into smuggling than raiding .

I for one would be fully embracing my Cockburn heritage

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Depends on what you mean by "the like". For example, businesses like mine which sell highly skilled individuals into the EU would find life a lot easier in Scotland than we're likely to find it in rUK. Depending on the Brexit deal, large swathes of the UK service industry could find things a lot better in Scotland (or Ireland, but Ireland is far more expensive and the IMO the weather is (even) worse) post Brexit.

If Theresa gets her way and it's a diamond-hard out-out-out Brexit then it's feasible that the most mobile parts of high value-add segments of the UK service industry might be beating a path northward.

As regards a hard border between England and Scotland, we could see a return of a version the Border Reivers but more into smuggling than raiding .

I for one would be fully embracing my Cockburn heritage

Yes by 'and the like' I was including professional services and consulting etc. I can't see much manufacturing re-locating to Scotland for example. Even in the case of professional services I wonder whether Scotland would be 1st choice or whether Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin, would have the edge there.

 

[The Don]

Yes by 'and the like' I was including professional services and consulting etc. I can't see much manufacturing re-locating to Scotland for example. Even in the case of professional services I wonder whether Scotland would be 1st choice or whether Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin, would have the edge there.

The thing is, although it makes a lot of noise, manufacturing isn't that big (10-20% of the economy depending on what you count as manufacturing). Rather like agriculture and fishing it has far more influence than its size warrants.

The service sector is several times the size of manufacturing (and consistently growing, unlike manufacturing which is far more cyclical) and yet the government seems pretty un-fussed about the service sector. That's even more shortsighted IMO when you consider how much "added value" is in services and how eminently portable they are. If you want to move a factory, there's a lot of plant to move - moving a consultancy, you just need available office space - and maybe not even that depending how well set up for home/remote working they are.

IMO Scotland would be a desirable location (rather like Ireland is/was) not least because it's mostly native English speaking and has the same regulatory framework in place. It's also a lot cheaper than the other places you mention.