Brexit: Now What? Part III

[ceptimus]

It was on a poster.

Just post a link to the poster image then.

 

[ceptimus]

A non-binding referendum. As you well know.

Irrelevant. After voting six to one in favour of holding the referendum, they can hardly ignore the result.

 

[ceptimus]

In sterling terms. Given the fall in sterling they have fallen. And note "House prices could take an 18% hit over the next two years" : it is not yet two years since the Referendum.

So no cigar there. Try again?

Are you sure? How much has sterling fallen and how much have house prices risen?

In any case, British people pay for British houses using pounds, so the exchange rate makes no difference. It's not like buying imported goods.

 

[The Don]

Are you sure? How much has sterling fallen and how much have house prices risen?

In any case, British people pay for British houses using pounds, so the exchange rate makes no difference. It's not like buying imported goods.

IMO, this demonstrates a lack of understanding of macroeconomics.

One of the responses to rising inflation (and a way to try and attract capital) is to increase interest rates - this in turn will tend to depress house prices (as will the fact that people have less to spend)

 

[McHrozni]

A very interesting read.

Not quite as dystopian, but this is another analysis that ought to be read as well:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/201...need-to-know-about-article-50-in-five-minutes

This makes a really good case for Brexit being the most arduous task Britain had to cope with in history. It's gargantuan and you can only hope for success if you have a highly capable cabinet and sufficient time to pull it off. Theresa May has neither.

I'm not entirely convinced she isn't poisoning the Brexit well, but it's backfiring due to immense Labour incompetence.

The House of Lords could yet sink that ship if it requires regular updates and Parliamentary votes on various issues, and if party loyalty begins to fray once the full costs of Brexit begin to reflect in polls and possibly new political parties begin to form.

It could be the most tumultuous period in Britain since 1651.

McHrozni

 

[ceptimus]

I've always thought that the housing market is crazy in the UK. Lower house prices would be a good thing.

This is irrelevant though on this lying issue. Osborne told the voters that house prices would fall immediately following a leave vote. If he knew this prediction was wrong then he was lying. If he actually believed it then he was merely stupid.

 

[Planigale]

This makes a really good case for Brexit being the most arduous task Britain had to cope with in history. It's gargantuan and you can only hope for success if you have a highly capable cabinet and sufficient time to pull it off. Theresa May has neither.

I'm not entirely convinced she isn't poisoning the Brexit well, but it's backfiring due to immense Labour incompetence.

The House of Lords could yet sink that ship if it requires regular updates and Parliamentary votes on various issues, and if party loyalty begins to fray once the full costs of Brexit begin to reflect in polls and possibly new political parties begin to form.

It could be the most tumultuous period in Britain since 1651.

McHrozni

Yes, countries survive out of the EU; e.g. Iceland. But most seem to think being part of the EU is better than not. I am sure the UK can survive without a zombie apocalypse happening (as some remainers seem to be arguing) out of the EU. But I think as a poorer country than had we remained in.

 

[ceptimus]

Tony Blair calls for people to 'rise up' against Brexit

The call by the proven liar and hated war criminal will, predictably, swing more people to support Brexit.

 

[3point14]

This makes a really good case for Brexit being the most arduous task Britain had to cope with in history. It's gargantuan and you can only hope for success if you have a highly capable cabinet and sufficient time to pull it off. Theresa May has neither.

I'm not entirely convinced she isn't poisoning the Brexit well, but it's backfiring due to immense Labour incompetence.

The House of Lords could yet sink that ship if it requires regular updates and Parliamentary votes on various issues, and if party loyalty begins to fray once the full costs of Brexit begin to reflect in polls and possibly new political parties begin to form.

It could be the most tumultuous period in Britain since 1651.

McHrozni

I'm beginning to think that it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that we'll all be spending euros by 2020

 

[The Don]

I've always thought that the housing market is crazy in the UK. Lower house prices would be a good thing.

Which again IMO demonstrates a failure to grasp the macroeconomic complexities. For sure lower housing prices may be of a benefit for the minority of people waiting to get on the property ladder but as the actions of successive governments it attempting to prop up the housing market has showed, it's a little more complex than that.

For most people, their house - or the capital they have tied up in their house - is their single largest asset. Whilst a drop in house prices may not have an immediate effect on their pockets, it will likely have an effect on public sentiment. The major driver behind growth in the UK economy at the moment is a consumer (and debt) - driven retail boom. If consumer sentiment starts to wain then that growth will evaporate.

Another major issue is that over a trillion pounds of debt is secured against the UK housing stock. As the 2008 crash demonstrated, a comparatively small rise in defaults can result in a large economic effect. A return to widespread negative equity will be bad for the finance industry, bad for the housing market (which tends to grind to a halt if people have negative equity) and for the economy as a whole (people who can't move aren't as able to provide a flexible blabour market).

But the real issue isn't the price of housing in the UK but the affordability (or otherwise) of that housing. Right now, because of record low interest rates, even the sky-high prices are comparatively affordable for most mortgage holders. The crunch will come when housing becomes (even) less affordable. A drop in house prices may may houses more affordable but not if it's accompanied by a rise in interest rates and/or tightened lending criteria. Widespread negative equity will likely result in the latter as lenders respond in the same way as they did in the early 90's and after the 2008 crash by tightening their lending criteria. Houses may be cheaper but less affordable

This is irrelevant though on this lying issue. Osborne told the voters that house prices would fall immediately following a leave vote. If he knew this prediction was wrong then he was lying. If he actually believed it then he was merely stupid.

No, he said that over a longer term they would be lower than they otherwise would be.

 

[Aepervius]

It was on a poster.

Are you sure of that ? Firstly it was 109 not 177, and it was AFAICT only in "brexit: the movie" I have no lust to check the whole movie again, it 70+ minutes long.

I do not recall it to be anywhere else, and after the John Oliver segment, I would wager that the few dead link I found were people "removing" stuff on the sly, but those are forums, not leave campaign.

I found what I think MAY be a parody site which still has it , or it is a poe... : https://mises.org/blog/just-another-day-regulated-europe

(It is actually a CITE of brexit:the movie)

 

[Aepervius]

And tehre is always conseropedia

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...ation&safe=off&client=firefox-b&hl=en&ct=clnk

Examples of EU regulations on Britain

Examples of EU regulations on Britain describes the excessive laws that EU bureaucrats from Brussels force on the citizens of the United Kingdom. Regulations kill jobs, immigration hurts wages and the culture, were just two of the many factors in leaving the EU. Long before the Brexit results were known, EU bureaucrats had been scheming to ban kettles (tea pots), toasters, and hair-dryers.[1] They seek to control every aspect of European existence. Examples listed,[2]
Items Number of Regulations
Pillow cases 5
Pillows 109


(....)

[1] EU to launch kettle and toaster crackdown after Brexit vote, Telegraphe, May 11, 2016
[2] Brexit the Movie

I can#t access the page anymore except for cache, but it could be a local problem. It also confirm the cite is brexit the movie.

ETA: ehre is the brexit movie passage : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsxkCF4W-NY

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit:_The_Movie

Not official leave campaign but praised by the usual suspect, daily express conservative etc...

 

[Aepervius]

Just post a link to the poster image then.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...d-of-making-it-up-as-he-goes-along-after-cla/

This one is well cited even if it is not the 109 pillows law from brexit the movie, it is also well false.

 

[Worm]

Naturally you're not going to be able to find a nice list with 109 entries on it to check against, but I did find this piece from Knowsley College which briefly covers the 'pillow' regulations.

They say there 109 separate EU regulations on pillows (that you sleep on). However, in actual fact these regulations include- cereals shaped like pillows and also a pillow like inflatable pump among other things.

Knowsley College: EU Referendum Guide (Part 2)

It sounds pretty much like someone just did a search for the word 'pillow' in an EU database then claimed that every hit was a regulation about pillows. Shoddy work.

I also found similar coverage on Huff Post about the 31 toothbrush regulations.

Of the “31 laws for toothbrushes”, several are actually about batteries (and refer to electric toothbrushes as an example of a type of portable battery), a couple are about economic measurements (where toothbrushes form part of a basket of consumer goods used for cross-European comparisons) and so on. Some, such as Case 2001/C 43/06, don’t even contain the word “toothbrush” at all and were apparently thrown up by computer error.

Huffington Post

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I've always thought that the housing market is crazy in the UK. Lower house prices would be a good thing.

This is irrelevant though on this lying issue. Osborne told the voters that house prices would fall immediately following a leave vote. If he knew this prediction was wrong then he was lying. If he actually believed it then he was merely stupid.

That's not what the article you linked to said. Which one of you lying?

 

[wobs]

The major parties, after voting heavily to make the Brexit decision by means of a referendum, were democratically bound to implement the result of the referendum. It would be political suicide for them to do have done otherwise.

I got a letter from our MP saying much the same thing. Basically, even though they know its wrong, they still voted for it out of fear of the far right.

A non-binding referendum, whose result will severely damage this country, which could legally be ignored (similar to what Sweden has done in the past), is being enacted due to political pressure. No wonder an MP shouted "Suicide!" after the Commons vote.

MPs voting out of fear. How can that result in anything good?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Yes, countries survive out of the EU; e.g. Iceland. But most seem to think being part of the EU is better than not. I am sure the UK can survive without a zombie apocalypse happening (as some remainers seem to be arguing) out of the EU. But I think as a poorer country than had we remained in.

The other thing to note is that some countries are successful in the EU, some are successful out of the EU, but there is no precedent for one transitioning from in to out. We are very much stepping in to the unknown on this one.

 

[Tolls]

No, he said that over a longer term they would be lower than they otherwise would be.

I pointed that out earlier, but I get the impression I'm being ignored.

 

[3point14]

I pointed that out earlier, but I get the impression I'm being ignored.

Nuance annoys those in favour of populist ********.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

For most people, their house - or the capital they have tied up in their house - is their single largest asset

More importantly their single biggest liability. A sudden drop in house prices might make an awful lot of mortgages look pretty bad - with bad results for both the borrowers and the lenders.