BobTheCoward
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Things move fast. I was going to ask questions about the ECJ ruling and it is already a dozen posts since that news broke.
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Amazer
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Well, the UK government can convince the EU to make more (and substantial) concessions, which doesn't seem likely to happen OR if parliament can get it's act together and rescinds the act that set the brexit date as a matter of law AND somehow force May to withdraw Article 50... a 'no deal' Brexit is what you'll get.
angrysoba
Philosophile
But if Parliament doesn't agree to something then "no deal Brexit" is what happens on March 29th, right?
But that something has to be something that the EU agree on as well, right?
At the moment, they know that the UK can only agree with what it has offered, no deal Brexit, or cancel Brexit.
People like David Davis think they can threaten not to pay a few billion pounds to the EU unless they agree to renegotiate, but first of all the EU may simply not care, or the EU themselves may be unable to come up with a unanimous agreement.
So that surely leaves "no deal Brexit" and "no Brexit" as the likeliest options right now, does it not?
But no deal Brexit probably has the edge just because not enough MPs will be prepared to vote for a revoking of article 50.
Unless...Nicola Sturgeon now thinks a vote of no confidence backed by Labour and SNP can presumably result in a snap general election...
Wudang
BOFH
You meant to have "unless" after "well," I think?
Ian Osborne
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Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
angrysoba
Philosophile
Ha ha! I wish I could claim that was some kind of Nostradamus-like powers of precognition. Or better yet, a million dollar prediction, but I had already seen the tweet from Sturgeon.
angrysoba
Philosophile
By whom will this be extended?
Amazer
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You cant unilaterally extend the deadline... EU has to agree too.
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Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
Reports say that PM Theresa May has been in talks over the weekend with Tusk and Juncker, so she may well be announcing more time or renegotiation.
What she won't be doing is resigning. She'll have to be dragged out screaming.
ponderingturtle
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But would the withdraw article 50 to prevent it?
Dave Rogers
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through
If the EU refuses to extend the deadline, that'll be the only way to prevent it.
Dave
ponderingturtle
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The reason why no deal brexit seemed the most likely is that it is the only thing that doesn't require parliament to agree to something. It seems to fit well with their quack negotiating style.
angrysoba
Philosophile
That post sounds a lot more certain than this one:
Also, she probably won't resign but even that I would not be too certain about. She may simply have run out of any options. I'm actually surprised by how long she has allowed herself to be the fall guy for what all of her colleagues surely knew was an impossible job.
Extension of the deadline needs unanimous agreement of the 27 Member States. This is far from granted.
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angrysoba
Philosophile
Not just that but Juncker has said it is the only deal on offer, and the UK PM has agreed to it. Why would it be in their interest to extend the deadline and renegotiate?
Besides, the European Commission has reiterated this point.
https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/...om/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-46506969
angrysoba
Philosophile
Theresa May, in the House, is just re-affirming her commitment to the deal and has also said that there will be no extension on the deadline.
She asked "Does this house want to confirm Brexit?"
A loud "No!" (from the SNP according to her).
She mentions a second referendum saying that it risks dividing the country, that staying in the customs union is not Brexit, and a hard Brexit would be economically damaging. So she rejects those alternatives.
She asked "Does this house want to confirm Brexit?"
A loud "No!" (from the SNP according to her).
She mentions a second referendum saying that it risks dividing the country, that staying in the customs union is not Brexit, and a hard Brexit would be economically damaging. So she rejects those alternatives.
Archie Gemmill Goal
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So the plan seems to be to try to negotiate a time-limit on the backstop with the EU in the hope that gets enough of her own MPs on side?
From an EU perspective that seems like a no-go. A backstop with a time limit simply would allow the UK to do nothing to solve the problem and then fall out of the backstop with nothing in place.
The only other option would seem to be some tighter definition of what would need to be in place in order to remove the backstop which would be binding on both sides?
Whatever happens it needs to happen sharpish.
From an EU perspective that seems like a no-go. A backstop with a time limit simply would allow the UK to do nothing to solve the problem and then fall out of the backstop with nothing in place.
The only other option would seem to be some tighter definition of what would need to be in place in order to remove the backstop which would be binding on both sides?
Whatever happens it needs to happen sharpish.
ponderingturtle
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How about simultaneous rescinding and resubmitting article 50?
Dave Rogers
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through
May's got that covered; apparently the "meaningful vote" can be delayed any time up to March 28th. "Sharpish" is completely ruled out.
Dave
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