Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[LondonJohn]

From countries with whom we have a trade agreement that is entirely independent from the EU one?

This is news to me. A bit of a relief to be fair.

No, I meant that processes etc will be unchanged on "Brexit Day" for non-EU goods imports. Whereas obviously at the moment a lorry of goods travelling from, say, France to UK simply drives straight through (although there's often a search for illegal migrants....), any goods entering the UK from a point of origin outside the EU (by ship or air cargo) already submit themselves to import checks, inventories, etc.

Therefore on "Brexit Day" I contend that there may be a short-term bottleneck on the EU-import side, on account of the fact that new processes will need to be implemented in the passage of those goods into the UK; but on the other hand, there will be no process change in the import of non-EU goods on that day, and therefore no new bottleneck.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

You believe there might be a delay, eh? Always the optimist. I think you'll find that many businesses will simply say to any orders from the UK "sorry, we don't ship outside the EU". I suggest buying some extra freezers on your side of the North Sea.

Sadly I think you are correct. And equally 'sorry we don't purchase from outside the EU'

I think a lot of the assumptions are that people will just deal with the extra paperwork and inconvenience and hassle but many won't bother. And I don't think many will make exceptions just for the UK.

As Non-EU we are going to find ourselves competing with the Chinese and Koreans on a lot of stuff rather than the Danes or the Germans or the Swiss.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

No, I meant that processes etc will be unchanged on "Brexit Day" for non-EU goods imports. Whereas obviously at the moment a lorry of goods travelling from, say, France to UK simply drives straight through (although there's often a search for illegal migrants....), any goods entering the UK from a point of origin outside the EU (by ship or air cargo) already submit themselves to import checks, inventories, etc.

Therefore on "Brexit Day" I contend that there may be a short-term bottleneck on the EU-import side, on account of the fact that new processes will need to be implemented in the passage of those goods into the UK; but on the other hand, there will be no process change in the import of non-EU goods on that day, and therefore no new bottleneck.

And these things are going to be separate are they? Aren't the very same people who are currently checking the non-EU stuff going to have to check EVERYTHING now? So there won't be a business as usual and a ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ there will be a mish mash of ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ as usual.

Bear in mind that a lot of the non-EU imports will still transit via the EU and come through the same infrastructure, use the same trucks and rely on the same inspectors.

 

[Mid]

In all this non-stop Brexit waffle on TV, pundits are continually saying that eighty percent of the economy is financial services. That may apply to London and the Home Counties, and perhaps Edinburgh in Scotland, but not so much to places like Birmingham, or Grimsby, or Wales and Northern Ireland.
The matter is discussed at this website:

http:///blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/20...nd-unilateral-free-trade-share-the-same-flaw/

When they say 80% of the economy is services they mean more than just financial services so retail, accountancy, arts and entertainment etc. Adding them all together gives just under 80% of all UK output at least according to the ONS.

London is obviously more service led than say the west midlands but even there well over 60% of the economy is service dominated. I doubt anywhere with a significant population in the UK doesn't have a service dominated economy (maybe Aberdeen with oil but there's a number of services related to that). There are however areas of the UK whose trade isn't service dominated (say for instance Sunderland that exports a lot of cars but maybe not that many services).

 

[ponderingturtle]

Sadly I think you are correct. And equally 'sorry we don't purchase from outside the EU'

I think a lot of the assumptions are that people will just deal with the extra paperwork and inconvenience and hassle but many won't bother. And I don't think many will make exceptions just for the UK.

As Non-EU we are going to find ourselves competing with the Chinese and Koreans on a lot of stuff rather than the Danes or the Germans or the Swiss.

Hey america has a bunch of soybeans that the chinese enacted tariffs against in response to our tariffs so maybe those could be made available.

 

[catsmate]

What you have to understand about the DUP is that they want Northern Irland to be treated the same as the rest of the UK. Just the same. Exactly the same.

Except for in the areas of women's rights and reproductive autonomy, gay rights, same sex marriage, cross border trade and movement, use of Ulster Scots, religion........

Sectarian parades, minority veto on laws they don't like, climate change denial......

 

[catsmate]

In matters of social issues pretty much anything NI is an embarrassment for the rest of the UK.

Fixed.

 

[catsmate]

Now available on DVD! It's actually quite dreary, as 1970s BBC dystopian drama goes (Survivors is much better!), but bits of it do seem worryingly prophetic, even if the writer thought the "bad" stuff would come about for an entirely different reason.

Indeed. Perhaps The Guardians is a better option?

 

[catsmate]

Thirty years of carnage, from 1968 to 1998, was somewhat embarrassing too.

A little OT but the whole GB-on-NI is rather bizarre. A few years ago the main story in Ireland (both bits) was sectarian rioting that left over a hundred police injured and involves bombs, baton rounds and water cannon.
In the rest-of-UK the main story was horsemeat in beef.

 

[Earthborn]

Virtually all meat, fruit and vegetables sold as fresh in the UK have never been anywhere near a freezer.

That's just what the Dutch want you to believe.

Yes, that sounds about right: they'll unilaterally decide to stop selling their products to some of their larger customers. That sounds like solid business acumen

If it saves them from having to deal uncertainty and paperwork by selling it at slightly reduced prices to the Germans, yes.

then the worst that will happen is that there'll be a short-term (days) period of mild confusion while systems and processes iron themselves out.

If you started negotiating and designing those systems and processes two years ago, and businesses start educating and hiring the people to do the paper right about now...

especially grain and fruit/vegetables

... largely comes from the Netherlands. In the list of biggest exporters of agricultural products, it is "America First, Netherlands Second" (also for the cost of healthcare bureaucracy, though for that the difference between the number 1 and number 2 spots is a bit bigger).

- comes from outside the EU already; obviously the import processes of those goods will be effectively unaffected.

... if they didn't enter the EU through the port of Rotterdam.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

But other than-:

women's rights and reproductive autonomy, gay rights, same sex marriage, cross border trade and movement, use of Ulster Scots, religion........

Sectarian parades, minority veto on laws they don't like, climate change denial......

Exactly the same.

 

[Andy_Ross]

No, I meant that processes etc will be unchanged on "Brexit Day" for non-EU goods imports. Whereas obviously at the moment a lorry of goods travelling from, say, France to UK simply drives straight through (although there's often a search for illegal migrants....), any goods entering the UK from a point of origin outside the EU (by ship or air cargo) already submit themselves to import checks, inventories, etc.

Therefore on "Brexit Day" I contend that there may be a short-term bottleneck on the EU-import side, on account of the fact that new processes will need to be implemented in the passage of those goods into the UK; but on the other hand, there will be no process change in the import of non-EU goods on that day, and therefore no new bottleneck.

Apart from the trade agreements we currently have with non EU countries are part of us being in the EU?

There will not be any agreements or treaties when we leave.

What happens then?

 

[Information Analyst]

Indeed. Perhaps The Guardians is a better option?

Nah, couldn't get into it - seemed even more talky than 1990's slower bits. I may give it another try at some point we can't afford to do anything other than sit at home watching TV, though.

I would recommend Knights of God, though.

 

[GlennB]

That's just what the Dutch want you to believe.

Utter nonsense.

Try this - freeze a fresh strawberry for a fair time, defrost it, then try to pass it off as 'fresh'. They get mushy. The FSM only knows how a whole raw potato might turn out.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Apparently draft agreement on future relationship agreed in principle between UK and EU. Some details starting to appear.

ETA: Although a lot of the agreement seems to be agreeing to agree something during the transition period if they can.

 

[Amazer]

Apparently draft agreement on future relationship agreed in principle between UK and EU. Some details starting to appear.

ETA: Although a lot of the agreement seems to be agreeing to agree something during the transition period if they can.

That's not particularly surprising since it's basically just a statement of intent.

Sent from my SM-J700F using Tapatalk

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Typical EU, missing the fire off Wales [emoji14] Although at least they included it on the map this time

Too wet to burn.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

What is May's objection to a new referendum? After showing the world that genies go unwillingly back into bottles, why not ask the citizens if they really want to keep trying to force the cork when it clearly won't fit.

Because her desired outcome is not really to save the economy, it is for Theresa May to remain in power for as long as can be achieved and then for the Conservatives to continue to rule, over the smouldering wreckage if need be.

Cancelling Brexit would be anathema to all the Leave voters she needs to keep onside.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Because her desired outcome is not really to save the economy, it is for Theresa May to remain in power for as long as can be achieved and then for the Conservatives to continue to rule, over the smouldering wreckage if need be.

Cancelling Brexit would be anathema to all the Leave voters she needs to keep onside.

As has always been the case.

Priority 1: Stay in power
Priority 2: Make life as easy as possible for us and our mates
Priority 3: Give the plebs and darkies an occasional kick in the teeth just to remind them that we are their betters.

 

[lomiller]

Hey america has a bunch of soybeans that the chinese enacted tariffs against in response to our tariffs so maybe those could be made available.

Mmmm Soybeans for lunch again…