Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

[GnaGnaMan]

I'm due to fly to Holland for a holiday a few days after 29.3.19 and I'm certainly concerned about a no deal exit. Will my EU passport even be valid?

LOL. You're doing that for a holiday? You're a risk-taker, aintcha?

 

[Degeneve]

Yes - no deal brexit is the best outcome at this point.

To clarify, I don't think a no deal brexit would be the best outcome.

On the contrary I think it would result in a nightmare or even a disaster for the UK.


But since no brexiteer is ready to acknowledge this I guess they will need to experience it in vivo to realize what brexit means.

 

[Information Analyst]

You don't understand how the correlation between youth and percentage of the population taking degree courses biases the results when counting 'degree-holders'?

Your use of 'educated' would imply that there weren't any educated people before academic degrees were invented. If you want to count the proportion of the 'educated' population of a given age, you need to choose a measure that hasn't steadily increased over time - or at least compensate for how the proportion of the population eligible for that measure has changed.

If you were to count the percentage of voters who learned to use the internet before they were 20 years old, I'm sure you'd find that a large proportion of them voted Remain. But this is just the same as measuring the proportion of younger people that voted remain, as no older voter stood any chance of internet use before the age of 20 - for the simple reason that the internet wasn't invented then.

Counting degree-holders shows the same sort of bias - though not to such an obvious extent as the internet example.

As Lothian suggests, you have failed to address the question I asked, i.e. "that just raises the question whether it was youth or education that made so many young and educated people support Remain."

We know that younger people were more in favour of Remain than Leave, and that the higher the levels of educational attainment correlated with higher support for Remain. You do not seem particularly keen on the latter, presumably because the logical inference is, "less educated people voted for Leave." Youth, on the other hand, can be dismissed as naivety.

Note that I have said "higher levels of educational attainment" and "less educated." There are not simply degree-holders and non-degree-holders. People left or leave education with no qualifications, a clutch of good O-levels/GCSEs, A-levels/Highers, a degree, a masters, or a doctorate (to put it simply - obviously there are various other intermediate and/or geographical options).

Personally it seems obvious that support for Remain correlates with both young and level of educational attainment, and the survey results referred to by The Don support this.

 

[Information Analyst]

What do these oldtimers say was better in the old days? Can't be the economy.

Oh, you know... Spangles, space-hoppers, Sunday and half-day mid-week closing, Black and White Minstrels, etc.

 

[Planigale]

A neutral country allows the military planes of a foreign power into its airspace. When you read that, what would be your first guess as to who is doing who a favor?
More to the point: If there was a hijacked passenger plane in irish airspace, would you expect it to make a suicide attack on Dublin, or...?



Do you have a source for anyone saying that?


No. Almost none.


The EU is sending out "Preparedness notices" to make people aware of the legal changes the UK will (or may) implement.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en

Please refer to the notices regarding air transport and aviation safety.

Please see reference given with original post.

 

[The Don]

Well if you had money there was the Jensen Interceptor, Lotus Esprit, Jag XJ series, Range Rover, Aston, Bristol, Daimler, Bentley, Rolls, Big Rovers.

It's only the Peasants that had to drive the Marina or Allegro.

My first car was a Rust-and-all-agro. A fine example of the 1.3L in Pageant Blue. It really wasn't that bad a car.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Again the lie that the UK government doesn't know what it wants.

The UK government does know what it wants - the problem is that what it wants is incompatible with what the EU wants.

Can you articulate what it wants then?

Because it seems to be wanting several mutually exclusive things

 

[Aber]

And so the EU has done the next best thing and proposed a backstop solution which would provide the time and space to sort it out properly without endangering the GFA.

Of course, it's slightly odd that the EU is refusing to talk about future arrangements (EXCEPT in the case of the Irish border), while complaining about UK cherry-picking.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Yes - no deal brexit is the best outcome at this point.

Says it all really. The worst possible outcome is now the best we can hope for.

 

[jimbob]

Of course, it's slightly odd that the EU is refusing to talk about future arrangements (EXCEPT in the case of the Irish border), while complaining about UK cherry-picking.

The Irish border is the issue that will have the biggest impact on an EU member state. It will also have a big impact on the UK as a lot of dissident republicans and loyalists are just itching to get back to the Troubles.


The EU has a single, perfectly reasonable, red line that May had agreed to previously before she or the Brexiteers realised the implications (which were obvious from the start).

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Please see reference given with original post.

No actual reply to my post?

Anyways, I was hoping the question would get you thinking about whether Varadkar acutally said that. Here's a report from an irish source.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...d-veterinary-inspectors-to-be-hired-1.3569403
“The situation at the moment is that the United Kingdom is part of the single European sky, and if they leave the EU they are not and that does mean that if there was a no deal hard Brexit next March the planes would not fly and Britain would be an island in many ways and that is something that they need to think about.

“You can not have your cake and eat it. You can’t take back your waters and then expect to use other people’s sky.”

 

[Lothian]

Rees-Mogg is uncertain whether brexit will be good for the UK and thinks it could take 50 years to recover.

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/1744730598938209/

 

[ceptimus]

I'm almost willing to believe that the Irish PM is so stupid that he confuses access rights with fishing rights. And maybe he thinks breathing or flying through the air is the same as shooting game birds from the air and taking them back home. And if he further confuses air with water and fish with birds that would allow him to justify his threatened retaliation.

 

[Planigale]

No actual reply to my post?

Anyways, I was hoping the question would get you thinking about whether Varadkar acutally said that. Here's a report from an irish source.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...d-veterinary-inspectors-to-be-hired-1.3569403
“The situation at the moment is that the United Kingdom is part of the single European sky, and if they leave the EU they are not and that does mean that if there was a no deal hard Brexit next March the planes would not fly and Britain would be an island in many ways and that is something that they need to think about.

“You can not have your cake and eat it. You can’t take back your waters and then expect to use other people’s sky.”

Well the Irish News seems to think Varadkar was wrong.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/brex...irspace-if-there-s-a-no-deal-brexit--1387588/
According to the Independent this is not the EU view.
https://www.independent.co.uk/trave...and-leo-varadkar-chris-grayling-a8456216.html

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Well the Irish News seems to think Varadkar was wrong.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/brex...irspace-if-there-s-a-no-deal-brexit--1387588/
According to the Independent this is not the EU view.
https://www.independent.co.uk/trave...and-leo-varadkar-chris-grayling-a8456216.html

I supplied you with Varadkar's actual words and I supplied you with information about the legal situation. Why not think for yourself?

 

[Planigale]

A no-deal Brexit is not good. Especially given the level of preparation HMG has achieved.

What happens with radionuclides for hospitals? What happens with our exchanging electricity across the Channel to balance ours and France's demand peaks? What about the same for gas? What about our food supply chain, especially for perishable foods? What about landing rights and aircraft certification? What about freight transport permits?

None of those are insurmountable, but they do need some arrangement.

You then add in the actual problems with a no-deal Brexit - what happens to UK exporters who suddenly find that they are less competitive because of the extra delays at customs, and whatever checks and certification let alone any tariffs. What about UK exporters who suddenly find that their supplies from the EU cost more?

What about the service industries - 80% of our economy, and most of our balance of trade? They suddenly find that they can't export.

What about UK employers who find that they can't fill vacancies?

And all because people don't like foreigners.

I like the free movement of people - it means (meant :-( ) that I was also freer to move.

We lost the argument. The UK is leaving the EU. As you have said there is a whole lot of issues that could be agreed on. Often with negotiations the thing to do is get the easy stuff out of the way. The EU could recognise that the UK CAA can issue safety certificates just as the US FTA does. The UK could recognise the EU certification. (FWIW the same issue applies re the UK and the rest of the world.)

The EU could be pro-active and say we recognise that the UK will leave the EU, EFTA, customs union. There are ways to break up; you can change the locks and throw all their belongings out of the window, or you can divide things up, help them find a new place and help with moving.

What is clear is that the concept of independent sovereign nations is really a fantasy in the modern world. (Much as Trump would like to get rid of all international agreements). The pro-Brexit argument about regaining independence always seemed silly given all the international agreements and organisations a modern nation needs to adhere to.

 

[Planigale]

I supplied you with Varadkar's actual words and I supplied you with information about the legal situation. Why not think for yourself?

Address the argument not the arguer, your comments are personal and verging on insulting. You asked for the source I provided it.

The meaning of his words is clear to me if there are restrictions on Irish fishing in UK waters post Brexit then there will be a restriction on UK access to Irish air space. This is apples and oranges. Ireland will need to negotiate access to UK waters as part of the EU, and the EU will allocate to Ireland any agreed fishing rights. Overfly rights are part of an international treaty not part of the EU. Landing rights are not EU but decided by individual nations. The air safety certification (necessary pre-requisite for landing rights) is currently issued by an EU body, and there would need to be an agreement to recognise UK CAA certification (since it will currently be identical to EU certification this is not a genuine issue - the UK post Brexit will be in the same position as Japan, the US etc.) The issue with the UK and fishing rights is the same as e.g. Iceland or Norway, one main reason that Norway did not join the EU was to maintain exclusive fishing zone. Varadkar should equally be threatening to ban Icelandair from Irish air space.

 

[Garrison]

Again the lie that the UK government doesn't know what it wants.

The UK government does know what it wants - the problem is that what it wants is incompatible with what the EU wants reality.

FTFY

 

[GnaGnaMan]

The meaning of his words is clear to me if there are restrictions on Irish fishing in UK waters post Brexit then there will be a restriction on UK access to Irish air space. This is apples and oranges. Ireland will need to negotiate access to UK waters as part of the EU, and the EU will allocate to Ireland any agreed fishing rights. Overfly rights are part of an international treaty not part of the EU. Landing rights are not EU but decided by individual nations. The air safety certification (necessary pre-requisite for landing rights) is currently issued by an EU body, and there would need to be an agreement to recognise UK CAA certification (since it will currently be identical to EU certification this is not a genuine issue - the UK post Brexit will be in the same position as Japan, the US etc.) The issue with the UK and fishing rights is the same as e.g. Iceland or Norway, one main reason that Norway did not join the EU was to maintain exclusive fishing zone. Varadkar should equally be threatening to ban Icelandair from Irish air space.

Varadkar is not threatening to ban anyone from Irish airspace or to restrict access in any way. He does not have that power.

The EU has laws governing air travel. These laws were made with input from the UK. They were passed with consent of the UK.
They demand that third countries should be treated in certain ways. The UK has, exercising its sovereignty, decided to become a third country. It has deliberately decided that the EU should treat it as a third country. (Strictly speaking, it still has the option of going for EFTA membership. I'm just not seeing that happen.) It is, one hears, the will of the people.

The UK has consented to these laws and now decided to be treated according to these laws.

It is not a decision made by Ireland, the EU, or anyone but the UK.

 

[ceptimus]

The UK hasn't made any decision to stop flying anywhere after Brexit. If it is stopped from flying anywhere that will be the result of decisions made by other countries and imposed on the UK.
But it's a fantasy of Remainers that any such decisions will be made. It's in everyone's interest to keep planes flying as they currently do.