Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

[jimbob]

I suppose because the EU specified this as an issue. Since they have set this as an issue it is not unreasonable for them to come out with proposed solutions; this does not mean the UK should not actively play a role, but it does mean that the EU approach of saying this is a red line for us but we are not going to think about how to address this issue, just say NO with whatever the UK suggests is not the best approach to achieving a practical solution.

The EU could be pro-active.

The Good Friday Agreement is pretty important. It directly affects the UK and an EU member state that the EU is not going to abandon.

May has accepted the importance of the GFA. She is now rejecting the backstop that she previously agreed to that would protect the GFA by ensuring the Irish Border remains open.

To be fair to her, she did provide her own proposal. Unfortunately, it was utterly unworkable. She might find the EU backstop politically unpalatable, but at least it is logically possible. Hers requires magic. And even proponents of the scheme accept that the infrastructure isn't in place and won't be by the time we leave the EU.

So no, I don't blame the EU for rejecting something that wouldn't work.

 

[Amazer]

I suppose because the EU specified this as an issue. Since they have set this as an issue it is not unreasonable for them to come out with proposed solutions; this does not mean the UK should not actively play a role, but it does mean that the EU approach of saying this is a red line for us but we are not going to think about how to address this issue, just say NO with whatever the UK suggests is not the best approach to achieving a practical solution.

The EU could be pro-active.

I guess it could be... but it's difficult to propose solutions when the UK still hasn't sorted out what kind of Brexit it really wants. And so the EU has done the next best thing and proposed a backstop solution which would provide the time and space to sort it out properly without endangering the GFA.

Now I understand that this interim arrangement isn't hugely popular... but unless the UK can come up with solutions that are acceptable to the EU AND, more importantly, acceptable to a majority of Britons, the backstop is the only way that the UK can (for the most part) Brexit and honour the GFA.

 

[jimbob]

I guess it could be... but it's difficult to propose solutions when the UK still hasn't sorted out what kind of Brexit it really wants. And so the EU has done the next best thing and proposed a backstop solution which would provide the time and space to sort it out properly without endangering the GFA.

Now I understand that this interim arrangement isn't hugely popular... but unless the UK can come up with solutions that are acceptable to the EU AND, more importantly, acceptable to a majority of Britons, the backstop is the only way that the UK can (for the most part) Brexit and honour the GFA.

Small steps Amazer, first May needs to work out what she wants.

I'd suggest that she lists what she would want, and then strike out what is logically impossible. Then strike out that which involves magical technology that won't be available. If nothing is left, then she needs revisit her list of wants, in light of what is possible.

 

[Lothian]

There is a solution to the Irish border problem. Both sides agreed on the solution and they both signed up to it (the backstop) on the understanding that it could be replaced if a better idea came along.

However May has now walked away from that agreement as it either puts a border between NI and rUK (annoying the DUP) or involves the whole of the UK remaining in the customs union (annoying those who have been betting against the UK's well being)

Imagine the outrage we would get from the euphobes if the EU had renaged on an agreement.

 

[jimbob]

There is a solution to the Irish border problem. Both sides agreed on the solution and they both signed up to it (the backstop) on the understanding that it could be replaced if a better idea came along.

However May has now walked away from that agreement as it either puts a border between NI and rUK (annoying the DUP) or involves the whole of the UK remaining in the customs union (annoying those who have been betting against the UK's well being)

Imagine the outrage we would get from the euphobes if the EU had renaged on an agreement.

Indeed Lothian.

Imagine the outrage if the EU walked back on an agreement and insisted on something that couldn't work.

May seems to have been negotiating in bad faith with the Remainers in her party and the EU, whilst caving in to the rabid Brexiteers at every opportunity.

 

[Andy_Ross]

You forgot to add all those quality British cars like the Morris Marina and the Austin Allegro.

Well if you had money there was the Jensen Interceptor, Lotus Esprit, Jag XJ series, Range Rover, Aston, Bristol, Daimler, Bentley, Rolls, Big Rovers.

It's only the Peasants that had to drive the Marina or Allegro.

 

[ceptimus]

Again the lie that the UK government doesn't know what it wants.

The UK government does know what it wants - the problem is that what it wants is incompatible with what the EU wants.

 

[Amazer]

Small steps Amazer, first May needs to work out what she wants.

I'd suggest that she lists what she would want, and then strike out what is logically impossible. Then strike out that which involves magical technology that won't be available. If nothing is left, then she needs revisit her list of wants, in light of what is possible.

Oh... I think she knows what she wants... she wants to remain the PM. And she will say and do anything that will further that cause.

Exiting or remaining aren't positions that she's wedded to, but to be used as the situations demands.

It doesn't make for a very reliable partner in negotiations, given how fractured the UK is. Nor does it ensure the best possible Brexit (for either a hard or soft Brexit).

 

[Amazer]

Again the lie that the UK government doesn't know what it wants.

The UK government does know what it wants - the problem is that what it wants is incompatible with what the EU wants.

Hmmmm.... strange that the UK government has taken forever to deliver that White Paper last week. Even stranger that in the Wake of the Chequers Agreement the government lost a number of cabinet members because they (belatedly) disagreed with the latest position. Hardly the sign of a unified cabinet who all support the direction that Brexit is going.

 

[Degeneve]

Again the lie that the UK government doesn't know what it wants.

The UK government does know what it wants - the problem is that what it wants is incompatible with what the EU wants.

The last time I checked it was the UK which wants to get out of the EU and not the EU which wants the UK out.

If the UK wants to keep some of the advantages of being in the EU, in particular with respect the customs union, it is to the UK to make workable proposals which fit with the rules prevailing in the EU, not to the EU to amend its own rules to adapt to UK wishes. If I remember well it's the UK which is asking for arrangements to the UK, not the converse.

Nevertheless the solution is really simple for the UK: just stop all kind of negotiations with the EU, wait for the 29 March 2019 deadline and get a hard Brexit.

 

[jimbob]

Again the lie that the UK government doesn't know what it wants.

The UK government does know what it wants - the problem is that what it wants is incompatible with what the EU wants.

It's also incompatible with what else it wants and what it has agreed to in earlier negotiations. Not the best way of negotiating.

 

[Lothian]

Again the lie that the UK government doesn't know what it wants.

The UK government does know what it wants - the problem is that what it wants is incompatible with what the EU wants.

We are all on the same page. The UK government position is unrealistic. To get a deal it will have to, once again, tippex out iour red lines.
Currently the UK government does not know which lines it is prepared to forget ever existed. Each line erased brings some people on side and sends others into dispair.
It is only after the UK government "decides" which non-negotiable to withdraw that a mini revolt and Trumpescian U-turn redecides what we want.... Until the next red line is rubbed out.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

In France, probably.

We all starve as the ration books are delayed at the border

 

[Darat]

We all starve as the ration books are delayed at the border

Along with all our passports.

 

[ceptimus]

The last time I checked it was the UK which wants to get out of the EU and not the EU which wants the UK out.

If the UK wants to keep some of the advantages of being in the EU, in particular with respect the customs union, it is to the UK to make workable proposals which fit with the rules prevailing in the EU, not to the EU to amend its own rules to adapt to UK wishes. If I remember well it's the UK which is asking for arrangements to the UK, not the converse.

Nevertheless the solution is really simple for the UK: just stop all kind of negotiations with the EU, wait for the 29 March 2019 deadline and get a hard Brexit.

Yes - no deal brexit is the best outcome at this point. It's a shame the UK government didn't just enact its 'leave means leave' policy straight away. This would have given business more of the certainty they crave and would have saved a great deal of time and argument. Once the UK had left, the EU would then negotiate any side deals that were really important to them rather than holding up the whole process over areas where it's clear that no mutually acceptable deal is possible.

A minor point of interest is that the deadline is really midnight on 30 March (depending on whether you believe midnight belongs to the day just beginning or the day just ending). It's only 11 pm on 29 March when using UK time - in CET time (which the most important EU countries all use) it's midnight.

 

[abaddon]

They've never experienced life outside the EU, so they are voting for the devil they know.

Nope. All of those students who participated in foreign uni programs will no longer have that option. Because you have voluntarily removed yourself from them.

Older people can compare life outside and inside the EU, so they're making a more informed choice.

Nope. Brexit was an uninformed vote. 350m a week extra for the NHS? Look ho9w fast that vanished.

In that respect (knowledge about the EU) they are 'more educated' than the youngsters.

I'm fairly sure you are fully aware what nonsense that is.

You really have no clue how academia actually works, nor how itinerant students actually are. Lacking any clue about it, you are happy to shut it down and render your country an academic backwater.

 

[ceptimus]

Nope. All of those students who participated in foreign uni programs will no longer have that option. Because you have voluntarily removed yourself from them.

Nope. Brexit was an uninformed vote. 350m a week extra for the NHS? Look ho9w fast that vanished.

I'm fairly sure you are fully aware what nonsense that is.

You really have no clue how academia actually works, nor how itinerant students actually are. Lacking any clue about it, you are happy to shut it down and render your country an academic backwater.

Your post is factually wrong and finishes with an insult. Poor critical thinking. You can do better than this.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

No but the RAF may not be able to provide air-defence for Ireland if they are banned from the airspace!

A neutral country allows the military planes of a foreign power into its airspace. When you read that, what would be your first guess as to who is doing who a favor?
More to the point: If there was a hijacked passenger plane in irish airspace, would you expect it to make a suicide attack on Dublin, or...?

What is wrong is saying that UK aircraft will be banned from Irish air space in revenge for Irish fishermen being restricted in fishing in the UK exclusive economic fishing zone post Brexit.

Do you have a source for anyone saying that?

International agreements on airflight predate the EU.

No. Almost none.

Air traffic control is zonal not based on the country of registration of the aircraft. Landing rights are a different issue, since slots tend to be based on mutuality (if not in a common market), so the UK would need to agree to matching slots for the UK registered aircraft landing in the EU as compared with EU registered craft landing in the UK. I have no idea how they currently balance, but Ryanair might lose slots or need to register aircraft in the UK.

The EU is sending out "Preparedness notices" to make people aware of the legal changes the UK will (or may) implement.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en

Please refer to the notices regarding air transport and aviation safety.

 

[jimbob]

Yes - no deal brexit is the best outcome at this point. It's a shame the UK government didn't just enact its 'leave means leave' policy straight away. This would have given business more of the certainty they crave and would have saved a great deal of time and argument. Once the UK had left, the EU would then negotiate any side deals that were really important to them rather than holding up the whole process over areas where it's clear that no mutually acceptable deal is possible.

A minor point of interest is that the deadline is really midnight on 30 March (depending on whether you believe midnight belongs to the day just beginning or the day just ending). It's only 11 pm on 29 March when using UK time - in CET time (which the most important EU countries all use) it's midnight.

A no-deal Brexit is not good. Especially given the level of preparation HMG has achieved.

What happens with radionuclides for hospitals? What happens with our exchanging electricity across the Channel to balance ours and France's demand peaks? What about the same for gas? What about our food supply chain, especially for perishable foods? What about landing rights and aircraft certification? What about freight transport permits?

None of those are insurmountable, but they do need some arrangement.

You then add in the actual problems with a no-deal Brexit - what happens to UK exporters who suddenly find that they are less competitive because of the extra delays at customs, and whatever checks and certification let alone any tariffs. What about UK exporters who suddenly find that their supplies from the EU cost more?

What about the service industries - 80% of our economy, and most of our balance of trade? They suddenly find that they can't export.

What about UK employers who find that they can't fill vacancies?

And all because people don't like foreigners.

I like the free movement of people - it means (meant :-( ) that I was also freer to move.

 

[Pixel42]

I'm due to fly to Holland for a holiday a few days after 29.3.19 and I'm certainly concerned about a no deal exit. Will my EU passport even be valid?