Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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The Atheist said:
Sheesh, you'll have plenty of room on the plane - every Pom I know is trying to figure how to get out.

PLENTY OF JOBS IN NZ, PEOPLE!!
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Seriously, where are all the Pom refugees planning to go? Work permits, immigration assessments, health provision and (in our case) frozen pensions outside the EU ... so many issues to deal with.
 
GlennB said:
Seriously, where are all the Pom refugees planning to go? Work permits, immigration assessments, health provision and (in our case) frozen pensions outside the EU ... so many issues to deal with.
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True, Mrs Don and I are in our mid-50s and although reasonably well qualified and with some relevant technical skills, aren't really the kinds of people that NZ, or Oz are really looking for - ideally we only plan to work for another 5-10 years.

Our pre-referendum plan had been to retire to somewhere a little warmer in Europe (maybe somewhere near Lake Annecy) but that's likely not an option any more. Even if the issues of residency and healthcare can be addressed, the 30% drop in the value of the pound since the referendum vote means that it's simply not affordable any longer.

Mrs Don is a US citizen and I suppose we could move to the States but then again, the costs of healthcare and the drop in the value of the pound makes this unaffordable too.

I'm reminded of the people in Pretoria who retired on fixed incomes to nice apartments in the centre around 20 years ago. Since then the neighbourhoods have changed dramatically, but they're unable to afford to move they're trapped.
 
Aber said:
No

As I understand it there are 3 things which drive the timetable:
  • votes of no confidence and the 2 weeks required between them
  • "wash-up" session to clear Parliamentary business probably 1 -2 weeks
  • election campaign IIRC minimum of 5 weeks

If Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister he controls the timetable, and an election before 31st October is difficult. If he was trolling then call it for the 31st; polls close 10pm, leave EU 11pm.
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By called I mean it will be scheduled to be held at a certain date in the future. This is entirely possible given the time available. There is no realistic prospect to hold the election before Brexit day though, that is painfully true. If BJ fully cooperated and the vote of no confidence was called on September 5th, it's deep in "maybe" territory.

Parliament does not get to ask for an extension; it has to be the Government, which is why who is Prime Minister is so critical. It is far easier for Parliament to stop the Government doing things than to force them to do something specific - that would normally involve changing the Prime Minister.
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Man, the first episode of season 4 is going to be a blast. I can't wait for the Red Wedding.

McHrozni
 
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Interesting contrast between the UK governments opinion regarding Brexit (as expressed by Dominic Raab):

Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, will begin a tour of North America on Tuesday as part of a bid to "fire up" the UK's trade relationships with countries outside the EU.

He will visit Canada, the US and Mexico.

Mr Raab said the foreign ministers he saw at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Thailand last week expressed a "consistent warmth" for the UK and a "desire to work more closely with us".
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And a rather more downbeat assessment from the US:

However, the former US treasury secretary, Larry Summers, has said he does not believe the UK will manage to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate... it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain."
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IOW, the UK is simply going to have a choice between KY-Jelly or chilli sauce.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

"The EU has said there is no basis for any further Brexit talks while the UK continues to insist on making changes to Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.
EU negotiators told European diplomats changes suggested by the new UK government, such as scrapping the Irish border backstop, were unacceptable."

It is still May's deal or no deal according to the EU.
 
Nessie said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

"The EU has said there is no basis for any further Brexit talks while the UK continues to insist on making changes to Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.
EU negotiators told European diplomats changes suggested by the new UK government, such as scrapping the Irish border backstop, were unacceptable."

It is still May's deal or no deal according to the EU.
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Given that the red lines haven't been removed, and if anything have been strengthened, is this any surprise at all ?
 
No 10 insists EU must 'change stance'

The government has rejected claims it is unwilling to negotiate with the EU and wants talks to fail to allow a no-deal Brexit.

It comes after the EU said UK demands to remove the Irish backstop from Theresa May's deal were unacceptable.

EU negotiators told European diplomats there was currently no basis for "meaningful discussions" and talks were back where they were three years ago.

Downing Street said the EU needed to "change its stance".
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

Important phrase there "talks were back where they were three years ago"
 
GlennB said:
The bottom line? (With the meat in bold)...


Over the weekend, it became clear he believes that Johnson could simply refuse to resign in the event of losing a no-confidence motion and schedule an general election for November – after leaving the EU at the end of October.
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It's not quite that simple:
"Dominic Cummings is wrong: MPs can stop ‘no deal’"

"Boris Johnson’s top aide says the prime minister can delay an election until after we’ve crashed out, even if he loses a vote of confidence, according to the Sunday Telegraph. That’s not quite true.

We do not live in a dictatorship. MPs will have to do a lot of heavy lifting when they get back from their holidays on September 3. But if they want to stop “no deal”, they can. "

https://infacts.org/dominic-cummings-is-wrong-mps-can-stop-no-deal/

Full article worth a read.
 
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The Atheist said:
I have. It's nice to see Brexiters involved in so many of them. Heartwarming.
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One of our London clients recently describes their plans as "Belfast in August '69 meets Katrina". Optimistic bunch...
 
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catsmate said:
Yes, but it would precipitate a constitutional crisis (violation of parliamentary supremacy) and lead to major civil unrest.
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Does it come with mandatory jail time for the perpetrator, or something of that nature?

McHrozni
 
Captain_Swoop said:
No 10 insists EU must 'change stance'



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809

Important phrase there "talks were back where they were three years ago"
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Canute (Cnut) insists that tide must "change stance"......


Yes I realise that he was demonstrating that his power was limited, not that he really thought he could turn back the tide - in this case however the Brexiteers are sitting there in the expectation that the tide will turn back....
 
Mojo said:
Is there any chance that someone can explain to Boris that “we refuse to negotiate until you agree to our demands” isn’t actually a negotiating position?
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Well, kinda it is, if you're the one with all the guns and stuff.
If you're the one that gets shafted it's more of a suicide note.

McHrozni
 
Mojo said:
Is there any chance that someone can explain to Boris that “we refuse to negotiate until you agree to our demands” isn’t actually a negotiating position?
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It's the Violet Elizabeth Bott negotiation strategy :rolleyes:

 
Mojo said:
Is there any chance that someone can explain to Boris that “we refuse to negotiate until you agree to our demands” isn’t actually a negotiating position?
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Remember you are dealing with someone whose class means they never have to hear " no".
 
Darat said:
Remember you are dealing with someone whose social class means they never have to hear " no".
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FTFY just in case anyone misinterpreted it as you suggesting that Boris Johnson was such a classy person, people find it hard to say no to. ;)
 
Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's all the EU's fault that they won't agree to our unreasonable demands

Cabinet minister Michael Gove says the EU "seem to be refusing to negotiate with the UK" over a new Brexit deal.

Mr Gove, who is responsible for no-deal planning, said he was "deeply saddened" that Brussels was, in his words, saying "no, we don't want to talk."

It comes after the EU said UK demands to remove the Irish backstop from Theresa May's deal were unacceptable.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49251257
 
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