Anyone heard about this dude? (pavelprorok on youtube)

[Startz]

1) I am handed the random envelope from the random pair set,

2) I hold it and describe/draw my visions,

3) Only after that I will get to know the set number and from the list on the table (thumbnail images or just a descriptions) I will know what are the options, I will match my vision to one of 3 and announce the answer by naming the envelope that was handed to me.

4) I Would prefer the envelope to be opened immediately.

5) Same procedure with all the rest of the envelopes in run.

Does it sound bad?

We make say 3 trials by 30 pairs per trial (makes it 90 photos in all), if I get 20 out of 30 in any of them, I pass.. GOOD?

p.s.

Also, as soon as the photo named it should be removed from the table aside whether it will be opened immediately as I would prefer or it would remain closed till the end of the run.

This sounds like a good protocol if you can do it in a reasonable amount of time. Note that it requires 270 photos be prepared. If each triple of envelopes takes 3 minutes, then the whole test will take 4.5 hours plus time for breaks.

For those who are curious, the probability of succeeding by random chance is 0.00058.

 

[pavel_do]

This sounds like a good protocol if you can do it in a reasonable amount of time. Note that it requires 270 photos be prepared. If each triple of envelopes takes 3 minutes, then the whole test will take 4.5 hours plus time for breaks.

For those who are curious, the probability of succeeding by random chance is 0.00058.

Thank you.


Well, I am not a rush Million Dollars worth it... beside see no point in 15minute test. And upon 15 minutes to be judged as either being able to perform my ability under agreed protocol and condition or not.
270 photos that is not a small thing, but again it worth it, isn’t it..

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...
Knowing the result immediately would make me more comfortable and as it does not affect ODDS any way I see nothing wrong with it and cant understand why can’t it be. Whatever, I understand that JREF is making rules here as it is there money that they risk.
...

Just to reiterate: The rules of a Double Blind Test are not made up by the JREF, a DBT is a well-known procedure in scientific testing. (However, using a scientific method does not imply necessarily that the test itself "is" scientific. )

The reasons for a DBT seem to be obvious, namely: The test can be reproduced anywhere, by anyone who adheres to the protocol.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...
And upon 15 minutes to be judged as either being able to perform my ability under agreed protocol and condition or not.
...

At the risk of sounding redundant: There will not be any judging of your results or your claimed ability because the protocol requires the results to be self-evident.

 

[pavel_do]

Just to reiterate: The rules of a Double Blind Test are not made up by the JREF, a DBT is a well-known procedure in scientific testing. (However, using a scientific method does not imply necessarily that the test itself "is" scientific. )

The reasons for a DBT seem to be obvious, namely: The test can be reproduced anywhere, by anyone who adheres to the protocol.

Hmmm…interesting…. Thank you.

At the risk of sounding redundant: There will not be any judging of your results or your claimed ability because the protocol requires the results to be self-evident.

No, no judging, there will be a results that will speak for it self... Just that to show better results you need more time..)

 

[GzuzKryzt]

This sounds like a good protocol if you can do it in a reasonable amount of time. Note that it requires 270 photos be prepared. If each triple of envelopes takes 3 minutes, then the whole test will take 4.5 hours plus time for breaks.

For those who are curious, the probability of succeeding by random chance is 0.00058.

Thank you.


Well, I am not a rush Million Dollars worth it... beside see no point in 15minute test. And upon 15 minutes to be judged as either being able to perform my ability under agreed protocol and condition or not.
270 photos that is not a small thing, but again it worth it, isn’t it..

Pavel, from my experience with the JREF designing tests, this would probably count as more complicated than necessary.

[Lt. Tuvok] However, [/Lt. Tuvok] it seems to qualify as a suitable protocol, given that we haven't overlooked a crucial detail.

Please do not forget that this test will be physically demanding - for you as well as the testers. Even with breaks of, say, 30 minutes after each set of 30. This would make a six-hour test. Holy schnikes.
If you can, try to simplify.

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel, from my experience with the JREF designing tests, this would probably count as more complicated than necessary.

[Lt. Tuvok] However, [/Lt. Tuvok] it seems to qualify as a suitable protocol, given that we haven't overlooked a crucial detail.

Please do not forget that this test will be physically demanding - for you as well as the testers. Even with breaks of, say, 30 minutes after each set of 30. This would make a six-hour test. Holy schnikes.
If you can, try to simplify.

I understand that… but even a million $ in not a joke.. so if it has to take 6 hours, than it has to take so.. So both sides would be satisfied in the end of test.. As I would have more then enough time to show whether I am able to perform my abilities or not… I will do my best to try to simplify it. I am working on it. Just that if I would know that JREF would consider it, it would be easier to work it out, by “hearing” there questions, answer and suggestion… so we can discuss it all and agree in the best conditions.

But again as I said before.. if that what I can do and how i could do it best.. why cant I..?? and why do I have to be pushed in the conditions that make me not able to perform it best.. ( like if my maximum weight to lift is 80kg and I will be pushed to lift 100kg)

By the way, I made a run with 15 pairs (3 photo per pair) it took me about 20 min in all, Out if 15 envelopes I got 11 right.
I will practice a bit more with this new sets, but seem like it can work out for me.. again will practice a bit more and see…

 

[GzuzKryzt]

I understand that… but even a million $ in not a joke.. so if it has to take 6 hours, than it has to take so.. So both sides would be satisfied in the end of test.. As I would have more then enough time to show whether I am able to perform my abilities or not… I will do my best to try to simplify it. I am working on it. Just that if I would know that JREF would consider it, it would be easier to work it out, by “hearing” there questions, answer and suggestion… so we can discuss it all and agree in the best conditions.

But again as I said before.. if that what I can do and how i could do it best.. why cant I..?? and why do I have to be pushed in the conditions that make me not able to perform it best.. ( like if my maximum weight to lift is 80kg and I will be pushed to lift 100kg)

By the way, I made a run with 15 pairs (3 photo per pair) it took me about 20 min in all, Out if 15 envelopes I got 11 right.
I will practice a bit more with this new sets, but seem like it can work out for me.. again will practice a bit more and see…

Randi said in his lecture at Princeton: "If one claims to be able to play the violin we won't ask him to play the piano." (I may not have nailed it word for word but I surely nailed the gist.)

Hence, Pavel: If you claim be able to push 80kg, you and the JREF should try to design a test proving exactly that.

However, if you can't provide evidence for your ability in a reasonable set of data there will be no test.
Reasonable means: A data-set reasonably eliminating success by chance, fraud and false positives. It also means that you have to design a test which can be done in an absolute maximum of eight hours, including breaks.

Again: A six-hour test - and that does not include any delays which may arise - does indeed stretch the boundaries of being reasonable, but still remains within said boundaries.

 

[pavel_do]

Randi said in his lecture at Princeton: "If one claims to be able to play the violin we won't ask him to play the piano." (I may not have nailed it word for word but I surely nailed the gist.)

Hence, Pavel: If you claim be able to push 80kg, you and the JREF should try to design a test proving exactly that.

However, if you can't provide evidence for your ability in a reasonable set of data there will be no test.
Reasonable means: A data-set reasonably eliminating success by chance, fraud and false positives. It also means that you have to design a test which can be done in an absolute maximum of eight hours, including breaks.

Again: A six-hour test - and that does not include any delays which may arise - does indeed stretch the boundaries of being reasonable, but still remains within said boundaries.

Well, I am not asking for a week trial =) I don’t need 8 hours I will fit in 6-6/2 Will fit in the “frame” ..

However, if you can't provide evidence for your ability in a reasonable set of data there will be no test.
Reasonable means: A data-set reasonably eliminating success by chance, fraud and false positives. It also means that you have to design a test which can be done in an absolute maximum of eight hours, including breaks.

That why I need not a 1 run, but 3 minimum… in order to have enough time to show whether I am able to perform claimed abilities under agreed protocol and conditions or not.. because a single trial could be unsuccessful just by chance and not because I am not able to perform it. Fair for both sides I guess.

However, if you can't provide evidence for your ability in a reasonable set of data there will be no test.

Well, I guess I am reasonable with 3 trials (by 30 pair per trial) and 6 hours test.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...
Well, I guess I am reasonable with 3 trials (by 30 pair per trial) and 6 hours test.

Didn't you say before: 30 sets of three?

 

[pavel_do]

Didn't you say before: 30 sets of three?

in the last posts I was talking about 30 “pairs” though it is not pair as there is 3 photo in each not 2.

So 30 envelopes per run to be “guessed” ( by 1 from each “pair”)
And 3 same trials ( 3 times by 30 envelopes (by one envelope from each triple)

 

[Startz]

in the last posts I was talking about 30 “pairs” though it is not pair as there is 3 photo in each not 2.

So 30 envelopes per run to be “guessed” ( by 1 from each “pair”)
And 3 same trials ( 3 times by 30 envelopes (by one envelope from each triple)

Pavel:

You've suggested a number of variations of your demonstration. Settling the exact details will have to wait until JREF time is freed up after TAM. In the meantime, why don't you pick any one of the protocols you've suggested and

1. Decide on how many times you're going to try the protocol and announce that here before you start.

2. Run through all the trials and report how you've done.

3. Do (1) and (2) again, only this time have a friend prepare the envelopes without you watching and then tell us how you do on this set.


Even if JREF wants some changes in the exact set up, this will give you give practice and provide some further evidence that your ability should be taken seriously.

 

[Gmonster2]

Ok… just a questions… What if my “gift” lay in the short term prediction like let say 1 min, so within 1 minute I need to be able to see what I predicting… does it disqualify me form challenge?

You are making no sense! What u are saying is u need to see the result from a pick straight away because your gift is short term? so u think that if u dont look in the envelope straight after your guess to confirm it that the photo in there will magically change?

 

[pavel_do]

Ok… just a questions… What if my “gift” lay in the short term prediction like let say 1 min, so within 1 minute I need to be able to see what I predicting… does it disqualify me form challenge?

You are making no sense! What u are saying is u need to see the result from a pick straight away because your gift is short term? so u think that if u dont look in the envelope straight after your guess to confirm it that the photo in there will magically change?

NO it will magically remains the same.. but AS I explained before, when I hold envelope I am asking myself and trying to predict WHAT WILL I SEE WHEN THE ENVELOPE WILL BE OPEN… so if I will wait till the end of trial.. I will see ALL the pictures that was used… and that not really helpful… to name CURRENT Image…

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel:

You've suggested a number of variations of your demonstration. Settling the exact details will have to wait until JREF time is freed up after TAM. In the meantime, why don't you pick any one of the protocols you've suggested and

1. Decide on how many times you're going to try the protocol and announce that here before you start.

2. Run through all the trials and report how you've done.

3. Do (1) and (2) again, only this time have a friend prepare the envelopes without you watching and then tell us how you do on this set.


Even if JREF wants some changes in the exact set up, this will give you give practice and provide some further evidence that your ability should be taken seriously.

Thank you for suggestions,
I will do so during the weekend.

 

[pavel_do]

Hi guys,

I will try deferent ways at the weekend and my friend will help me with it, I will make run with 30 sets of 3 and with 24 sets and even with 25. And after I will post the results together with my new proposition for the protocol based on sets with 3 this time.

Have a nice weekend,

Pavel

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Didn't you say before: 30 sets of three?

in the last posts I was talking about 30 “pairs” though it is not pair as there is 3 photo in each not 2.

So 30 envelopes per run to be “guessed” ( by 1 from each “pair”)
And 3 same trials ( 3 times by 30 envelopes (by one envelope from each triple)

Pavel, I'll be dropping the gloves for this one - I'll put them on straight after and should I receive a warning or suspension for this one, which would be in order, mote it be:

THERE IS A BLEEPING MILLION DOLLARS AT STAKE FOR EVIDENCE OF YOUR ALLEGED ABILITY AND THIS IS THE BEST YOU CAN DO????????????

ARE YOU BLEEPING KIDDING ME, 做出愚蠢的举动。??????????

PAIR MEANS: "TWO", "2", "DOS", "DUE", "DEUX", "ZWEI", "DI" AND OF COURSE: "два".

TRIPLE MEANS: "THREE", "3", "TRES", "TRE", "TROIS", "DREI", "TRI" AND OF COURSE: "три".

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF!!!!!



And while we're at it: How come there are, um, is not one of your peer group present?

Shouldn't the League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen press for a test of your awesome power with all their might?

Shouldn't they flock in dozens and flood the forum with their pledges of allegiance?

If you have not convinced ordinary people so far - those two Drs. aside, who will probably have their inbox full soon enough - does that not tell you, us, the lurkers, something?

Do you realize that evidence in two controlled tests of your alleged ability would put you on a silver platter for the next Nobel Prize in Physics?

Do you realize you can't even describe the difference of "2" and "3"?



I went out of my way. Perhaps out of order. I let my gut send this post. My head opposed strongly. Mayest thou take it in good faith. I'll be one of the first to sign up for your classes if you have something to teach.

 

[rjh01]

Er, if a person has difficulty counting do you think he would know how many people he has performed in front of?

A successful demonstration of supernatural powers in front of professors will have consequences. I can see none that have happened.

 

[pavel_do]

Er, if a person has difficulty counting do you think he would know how many people he has performed in front of?

A successful demonstration of supernatural powers in front of professors will have consequences. I can see none that have happened.

VERY FUNY... but I know how to count and I had a few tests during a month with Dr`s not only 1 ... beside that not only 2 DR's were presented during testings!

 

[pavel_do]

If that was a joke.. than I did not understand it.. And taking it as an insult

Pavel, I'll be dropping the gloves for this one - I'll put them on straight after and should I receive a warning or suspension for this one, which would be in order, mote it be:

THERE IS A BLEEPING MILLION DOLLARS AT STAKE FOR EVIDENCE OF YOUR ALLEGED ABILITY AND THIS IS THE BEST YOU CAN DO????????????

ARE YOU BLEEPING KIDDING ME, 做出愚蠢的举动。??????????

PAIR MEANS: "TWO", "2", "DOS", "DUE", "DEUX", "ZWEI", "DI" AND OF COURSE: "два".

TRIPLE MEANS: "THREE", "3", "TRES", "TRE", "TROIS", "DREI", "TRI" AND OF COURSE: "три".

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF!!!!!



And while we're at it: How come there are, um, is not one of your peer group present?

Shouldn't the League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen press for a test of your awesome power with all their might?

Shouldn't they flock in dozens and flood the forum with their pledges of allegiance?

If you have not convinced ordinary people so far - those two Drs. aside, who will probably have their inbox full soon enough - does that not tell you, us, the lurkers, something?

Do you realize that evidence in two controlled tests of your alleged ability would put you on a silver platter for the next Nobel Prize in Physics?

Do you realize you can't even describe the difference of "2" and "3"?



I went out of my way. Perhaps out of order. I let my gut send this post. My head opposed strongly. Mayest thou take it in good faith. I'll be one of the first to sign up for your classes if you have something to teach.

Thanks allot for the lessons.. BUT when I was talking about TRIPLETS and wrote PAIR i put it in brackets.. "PAIR" that in my knowledge would mean NOT EXACTLY PAIR....
from now one will call them TRIPLETS ot SETS. if "" means nothing for people here.

Re to the ...

And while we're at it: How come there are, um, is not one of your peer group present?

Shouldn't the League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen press for a test of your awesome power with all their might?

Shouldn't they flock in dozens and flood the forum with their pledges of allegiance?

[/B]

I AM NOT A CLOWN AND NOT A JOKER!

I am not looking for all that you wrote above, never had intentions and never will! I am not offering myself like a prostitute to any one who would like to make something out of it.. like
"How come there are, um, is not one of your peer group present?

Shouldn't the League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen press for a test of your awesome power with all their might?

Shouldn't they flock in dozens and flood the forum with their pledges of allegiance?"

If you have not convinced ordinary people so far - those two Drs. aside, who will probably have their inbox full soon enough - does that not tell you, us, the lurkers, something?

Do you realize you can't even describe the difference of "2" and "3"?]

Who ever was willing to see my abilities, was able to see them, I done a few reading at the University to the ORDINARY people beside DR`s!
Ordinary people? ORDINARY PEOPLE NOT ASKING FOR AFIDAVIT LETTERS, MEDIA COVERAGE, NOTORIZED APPLICATION AND DESIGHNING THE PROTOCOL TO SEE WHAT I CAN DO. YOU JUST SHOW THEM THE WAY YOU DO IT AND THE YOU KNOW IT!!! They come because they in need! I am not a CLOWN or entertaining guy!
I met more than you can imagine and done readings for them. Deferent people from different social levels from DISHWASHERS to MINISTERS. And you know what? they appreciated it and what I done! They wasn’t looking at me from TOP like.. here is the CLOWN or entertainer… I AM NOT RENT BOY! And people come to me not with stupid PHOTOS in the envelopes, they come with troubles, death, sicknesses and real problems. They come and look for a hope and way out, and unfortunately not always I can be helpful! And I am always honest! IF I SEE SOMETHING I SEE IF NOT I AM SAYING I AM NOT SEEING!!! What ever.. I guess that is LOW for GODS from JREF THREAD…

I KNOW HOW TO COUNT and KNOW THE DEFERENCE BETWEN 2 and 3 just didn’t know that people here dont know what are the brackets mean..