Anyone heard about this dude? (pavelprorok on youtube)

[Crundy]

Stats = dull. Hot chicks = interesting.

Actually no it doesn't. It would return a data type mismatch error.

 

[Pope130]

Guys, come on... whenever there's a discussion on statistics you get all sidetracked and derailed on this. Can we keep it on topic please?

Thanks.

Sorry!

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Crundy,
Here ya' go:

Hummna, hummna, hummna.

And it's out of my system!



Pavel, have you tried what Remie suggested? Results?

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel,

What if they were instead divided into sets of ten photos, wherein each set held 9 pyramids and one apple, and the only goal for each run was to find the apple? Of course, the envelopes couldn't be opened one at a time unless you identified the apple... For instance, if you held the first three and said each was a pyramid, we would not open them to verify, but wait for the apple to be identified.

When thinking this over, I'm also factoring in the amount of time it would take to complete such an experiment. This would require significantly fewer reps.

~Remie

Hi Remie

There was an "offer" with 1 out of 3 and to beat odds..

If you are identifying the photo from a group of three, then 16 out of 24 would do the trick. If you are comfortable with that, my guess is it would allay some of JREFs concerns.

Alternatively if you feel you could do 20 out of 30, then the odds work out that you could have three separate tries to hit the 20 out of 30 mark and win the prize if any of them succeed!

Do you think that would be reasonable for JREF? As I am finding it fair and going to practice from tomorrow with it to see what will I get.. Just asking in order to see more or less as if that would be considered as 1 of the options by the JREF. I would not waist my time and would start to practice with set of 3 instead of 2 in a pair.

Pavel

p.s. Still as from what I explained before I would need to know the result immediately after I named the envelope and know what are the 3 options in order to see which one of them fits to my vision ( first I will hold the envelope and describe what I see then I would need to know what are the 3 options so I can match it to 1 of them).

 

[Pantaz]

I still have a big problem with you being told what images are in the envelopes in advance. Either you can psychically "see" them, or not.

 

[pavel_do]

I still have a big problem with you being told what images are in the envelopes in advance. Either you can psychically "see" them, or not.

What is the problem? I explained why it is as I DONT SEE EXACT IMAGE as it is in the envelope, it is shapes, colors or related pictures…(and it is always deferent I never know what will I see eather it is shapes or colors or something that relates to the photo.. Other wise I would claim I can exactly name color or shape or say what is the picture relates to…) Knowing photos does not affect odds still same 1 of 3 or 1 of 2. You think there is nothing special to have a clue about what picture is in the double envelope, just by holding it in your hands and not seeing it in any psychicall way?

As I said before, I will describe first what I see ( without knowing what is the set and the options in it) and then the decryption will be matched to one of the options so the one out of 3 that it will mach I name it as the answer. If It will be 15 pairs used by 3 in each it will make 45 deferent photos… so I have 15 photos out of 45 options to name.. I guess it is too much to be just lucky… As My descriptions are not just out of the blue, I make my decision about what photo inside based on my visions. Other wise I would claim that I am a lucky guy who jus random name photos and they happened to be correct…

P.s.
I made today 15 "pairs" by 3 picture in each… so in all it is 45 images.. tomorrow I will try practice with it to see how i go with it… cause if it will go well and the JREF would consider this test as an option, so we can make 2 runs per trial to make it 30 pairs in all. And as it was mentioned before, to make 3 runs by 30 pairs in each of it, if in any of them I get 20 as it was suggested, that beat needed odds…

 

[Gmonster2]

As Remie has suggested why dont u try the 1:10 method, one apple and nine pyramids ?? or is that too hard for you?

This would give a much easier testing method for jref and yourself without so many repetitions needed.

It seems u have bypassed this completely and are back to your best of 2 or 3guesses...

 

[Akhenaten]

What is the problem? I explained why it is as I DONT SEE EXACT IMAGE as it is in the envelope, it is shapes, colors or related pictures…(and it is always deferent I never know what will I see eather it is shapes or colors or something that relates to the photo.. Other wise I would claim I can exactly name color or shape or say what is the picture relates to…) Knowing photos does not affect odds still same 1 of 3 or 1 of 2.

The problem is that all you're doing is attempting over and over to create the most complicated-looking, coin-toss-odds guessing game that you think you can get away with.

BTW, what would you "see" if the envelope handed to you was a control, containing no picture at all?

You think there is nothing special to have a clue about what picture is in the double envelope, just by holding it in your hands and not seeing it in any psychicall way?

How special could it be? The "clue" consists of someone telling you that it's a choice of two, or three (it seems pretty variable) pictures with which you are familiar.

Not that I'm trying to discourage you from having a clue. I think it would be a great idea.


Pharaoh

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...
p.s. Still as from what I explained before I would need to know the result immediately after I named the envelope and know what are the 3 options in order to see which one of them fits to my vision ( first I will hold the envelope and describe what I see then I would need to know what are the 3 options so I can match it to 1 of them).

Pavel, be assured of one thing: The test will be carried out as a "Double Blind Test". This means that neither the tester nor the testee will know what was scored before the entire test is done. It won't happen any other way.



And on a different note: Perhaps I am too dense but I have completely lost the view of what you want to perform.

 

[pavel_do]

As Remie has suggested why dont u try the 1:10 method, one apple and nine pyramids ?? or is that too hard for you?

This would give a much easier testing method for jref and yourself without so many repetitions needed.

It seems u have bypassed this completely and are back to your best of 2 or 3guesses...

If you read the reply to REMIE I have explained why it would not be the best solution.

Why cant it be let say only 2 photos say APPLE and CROSS… say 25 each that would make 50 in all.. seem easy I need to separate them in each pile… Yes that is not a problem.. BUT in this case though I am psychic but I am a human same time and the brain and mind still work in normal way.. and it is not always help.. example.. say I hold first two photos and sew round thing.. OK great that the Apple.. and I am right.. when I hold 3dh or forth envelope and If I will still keep seeing round thing that would signify apple.. my brain will get involved in doubting me.. like saying.. it CANT BE an apple 4 time s in row it just mix up.. u sew it last time.. etc.. Though I know it can be possible that all 25 in row will happen to be APPLES.. but I cant switch off brain.. and that the case.. for that reason It does not that simple as it seem from first look.. for the same reason I dropped ZENNER card practicing.

So if you looked at the list of the pairs each pair had different photo in different colors and shapes and structure… It is almost impossible have all completely different photos.. If I would see always exact colors when I hold it that would be easy I would make 40 different colors photos and would see them all exact.. But as I said… I see all the time different, sometimes shapes sometimes colors some time exact thing…
...

JREF suppose giving you chance to make it as easy as possible for you to perform.. so Why do I have to complicate it and go for something that would not allow me to show the best of my abilities under stressed and controlled conditions. As I said before and will repeat again.. you can do that with 2-3 or 4? Do that, and if 10 does not make deference for you.. than do 10. I have explained why 1 of 10 would not be the best option though it seem easier in a way.. and always explain. I have abilities but I am a real person and not a X man from a movie, reality is deferent I don’t fly or see through the 2 meter walls. What I can do I described and explained how I do that and How I see and what could affect it. I have a limits of my gift and that is it. I can not and not going to say I can do that all and to claim that I can do what I am not abele to. I see no point in wasting my time or anyone else’s I am not 14 year old fun of Harry Potter…

 

[pavel_do]

The problem is that all you're doing is attempting over and over to create the most complicated-looking, coin-toss-odds guessing game that you think you can get away with.

BTW, what would you "see" if the envelope handed to you was a control, containing no picture at all?

How special could it be? The "clue" consists of someone telling you that it's a choice of two, or three (it seems pretty variable) pictures with which you are familiar.

Not that I'm trying to discourage you from having a clue. I think it would be a great idea.


Pharaoh

as I wrote above a few times.. FIRST I will describe what I see without knowing what is the current set in my hand then I would know what are the options… First, then when the options will be known it will be obvious that I do see (from my descriptions) as one of 3 photos will match to descriptions as I will offer my guess based on it. Second, I will not know while I will hold the envelope from what set it is, that will help me not to influence my self at a first place by knowing the options, so I will be “free” to see what will come in my vision that is helpful to me.

 

[Gmonster2]

No read back carefully

Nah I still don't get it.

Your reason for not doing the 1:10 protocol was that your psychic ability would tell u one thing but your brain would try to override that as not being correct confusing you because of the multiple pyramid pictures and only one apple .

So whats the problem ? Just trust your psychic ability....

 

[pavel_do]

QUOTE=pavel_do;3760122]I can try this one to see what will I get… just need to print out 8 more of the same photos.. ( just that same pictures confusing as I explained to you before unless there will be some different photos but only one of It say APPLE or something elts).
How many runs would JREF be satisfy with how many do I need to get right to pass the preliminary test?? With 1 out of 10?

p.s. The test where there would be 1 out of 3 that was described above, does it sound at least a bit OK? Still the photo that I name would be opened straight a way and I would need to know what are the options before I name it as I would be able to match my description to one of it..

No you did not explain that at all !!!! you said u would try it which u havent and asked if you could go back to your easier guessing game to which Remie as not replied!

This is becoming like the Edge thread all over again...[/QUOTE]

I have explained it you can read it in my post, what I did not do is to post the results of 1 out of 10.
I tried and it is not working out for me in the best way as I am getting confused after 2nd run, the reasons for confuse in explained in my post and it just have confirmed in my test. So I would rather do not go for 1 out of 10. Though I tried even in a deferent way when there was all deferent pictures and I had to identify ONE out of it.. ( thought it will help) it dos not help, due to the reason that whether we like it or not, but things have same shapes colors structure etc in common and it is impossible to find completely deferent photos. As I do not see EXACT photo and it is shapes colors texture etc ( explained many times) that makes it difficult. There would be one possible option WHEN I hold them ALL one by one, I chouse ONE that I am sure of the most ( I need to know what are the 10 options any way) and that ONE will be named and open. That could work out probably. But don’t know how JREF would like it( as my posts just ignored and the questions I guess till the end of TAM) , as I would name every time deferent photo (1 out of 10 deferent) and would not stick to the task to find particular one. BUT again if 1 out of 3 works better for me why should I dump it?

 

[Gmonster2]

Pavel, be assured of one thing: The test will be carried out as a "Double Blind Test". This means that neither the tester nor the testee will know what was scored before the entire test is done. It won't happen any other way.



And on a different note: Perhaps I am too dense but I have completely lost the view of what you want to perform.

Yeah me too...

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel, be assured of one thing: The test will be carried out as a "Double Blind Test". This means that neither the tester nor the testee will know what was scored before the entire test is done. It won't happen any other way.



And on a different note: Perhaps I am too dense but I have completely lost the view of what you want to perform.

Ok… just a questions… What if my “gift” lay in the short term prediction like let say 1 min, so within 1 minute I need to be able to see what I predicting… does it disqualify me form challenge? Another thing, what deference does it make if the result will be revealed immediately or after wards?? I doubt that will make any deference to the “hits”. But that makes deference for my performance, Plus everyone including me will be able to see immediately that envelope was really from the set that was agreed before and was not mixed or replaced or something =)
Knowing the result immediately would make me more comfortable and as it does not affect ODDS any way I see nothing wrong with it and cant understand why can’t it be. Whatever, I understand that JREF is making rules here as it is there money that they risk. STILL, the conditions and affections and also the ways that Claimants see and r able to perform there abilities should be taken in consideration I guess, other wise that is nit negotiation that is doctrine. And in that case JREF should have just post there test for basic abilities and say this is it.. and the only way we want you to perform. So people read it and if they can do that they go if not they don’t go for it. Like on the Olympic games, the guy who lifts maximum 80 kilo, would not go for 180 kilogram weight lifting nit because he cant lift at all cause he cant lift 180 kilo… am I wrong? I am not referring only to the fact that it is not allowed to see the result immediately (though see nothing wrong with it) it is to the fact like, I would like to and that is my “weight” to have a test say wit pairs of 2 or 3. And I am pushed to the 10? Why? Not really fair I guess to push me for a lifting of 180 kilo when I can lift maximum is 80, but push me till the edge till I agree with it? is that in order to make it impossible in any ways for me and to make sure I am failed to lift that weight and have no chance to win it cause I will lift 80 kilo?

Re to what would I perform… Ok.. let make an example with “pairs” of 3 where 1 out of 3 drawn random and handled to me to name it.
There will be (all for example and not exact numbers) 15 “pairs” by 3 photo in each pair. In all 45 photos. From every pair, 1 random envelope will be drawn out, then all 15 envelopes will be reshuffled and one by one handed to me to identify.
The envelopes will be handed to me in any order. I will hold envelope first, I will describe and draw what I see, then when I am finished I will get to know what is the current pair and what are the options in it. So my description and drawing shell be matched to one of 3 photos, the one it will match I will name as the answer, after that (ideally) the envelope shell be open and result revealed.
Same thing with every next envelope.
So we make a run per 30 pairs, if 20 is correct than I pass the first test ( covering the 1.000 odds)
IS it that bad?

 

[pavel_do]

Another thing is, I always answer questions and reply and explain what is my point and why is this or that.. But most of my questions just ignored and dumped same as my reasons and explanations. Not really fair. Can you all write your point and explain yourself beside that just jumping on me and criticizing. I am sure that would help allot in understanding each other and possibly finding an option and the solution to the test.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

No you did not explain that at all !!!! you said u would try it which u havent and asked if you could go back to your easier guessing game to which Remie as not replied!

This is becoming like the Edge thread all over again...

I have explained it you can read it in my post, what I did not do is to post the results of 1 out of 10.
I tried and it is not working out for me in the best way as I am getting confused after 2nd run, the reasons for confuse in explained in my post and it just have confirmed in my test. So I would rather do not go for 1 out of 10. Though I tried even in a deferent way when there was all deferent pictures and I had to identify ONE out of it.. ( thought it will help) it dos not help, due to the reason that whether we like it or not, but things have same shapes colors structure etc in common and it is impossible to find completely deferent photos. As I do not see EXACT photo and it is shapes colors texture etc ( explained many times) that makes it difficult. There would be one possible option WHEN I hold them ALL one by one, I chouse ONE that I am sure of the most ( I need to know what are the 10 options any way) and that ONE will be named and open. That could work out probably. But don’t know how JREF would like it( as my posts just ignored and the questions I guess till the end of TAM) , as I would name every time deferent photo (1 out of 10 deferent) and would not stick to the task to find particular one. BUT again if 1 out of 3 works better for me why should I dump it?[/QUOTE]






Pavel, I recommend you propose - in simple plain English - what you want to do to demonstrate your claim: How many photos, how many trials with these photos.

If that one initial proposition is rejected, then move on to another. Repeat until you both agree on a protocol.
Don't mix your propositions like you did because this will likely lead to confusion. Nobody holds your difficulties with language or statistics against you.

Again: Make one proposition and try to work it out. If you and the JREF don't agree on a protocol, then make another proposition.

Please try to not get worked up during the discussion with us forumites, as we tend to behave very critical, doubting and generally skeptic. This is not due to personal reasons. Most of us have seen dozens of people making similar claims. Not one of those claims provided valid evidence. Not one. The vast majority never even proceeded to the stage of having a protocol, let alone a test.

I strongly suggest you exclusively discuss your protocol with a JREF Representative.

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel, I recommend you propose - in simple plain English - what you want to do to demonstrate your claim: How many photos, how many trials with these photos.

If that one initial proposition is rejected, then move on to another. Repeat until you both agree on a protocol.
Don't mix your propositions like you did because this will likely lead to confusion. Nobody holds your difficulties with language or statistics against you.

Again: Make one proposition and try to work it out. If you and the JREF don't agree on a protocol, then make another proposition.

Please try to not get worked up during the discussion with us forumites, as we tend to behave very critical, doubting and generally skeptic. This is not due to personal reasons. Most of us have seen dozens of people making similar claims. Not one of those claims provided valid evidence. Not one. The vast majority never even proceeded to the stage of having a protocol, let alone a test.

I strongly suggest you exclusively discuss your protocol with a JREF Representative.

Thank you for the answer.

I have a few propositions and asked in one or the other way if that suits in any way to the JREF.. but it is just ignored ( due to TAM I suppose) as for example if Remiev would answer to me about 1 out of 3 I wouldn’t mind. If that can be reasonable for JREF (as it seem for me) I would practice it and would make a detailed proposition about It same as I done with pair of 2. ( I have made 15 pairs by 3 yesterday, now I will have my breakfast and will make a run of 30 pairs to see what will I get.) Having answers would save time as until 22 is 2 weeks to go. For 2 weeks I could practice in one way that possible could be suitable for JREF and than we would just discuss the details… Like if 1 out of 3 is reasonable I take it and will invest my time and make more photos in order to make best “pairs” or If pair of 2 still can be considered I would maybe work out something with it…

 

[Crundy]

Knowing the result immediately would make me more comfortable and as it does not affect ODDS any way I see nothing wrong with it and cant understand why can’t it be.

What if you got them wrong? Would that make you less comfortable? I can see this turning into an excuse for failure. Wouldn't it be better to have something like:

1) You are handed three envelopes and told which three photographs are inside (optional: You have a sheet in front of you with thumbnail images showing what the photos are)

2) You decide which picture is in which envelope and mark each envelope with a marker pen saying which picture is in each, e.g. "Red Ball" etc. (or picture number from the thumbnail sheet)

3) After you have marked all three envelopes, they are placed to one side and you are handed the next set of three envelopes to start from step 1.

4) When all sets are marked, the envelopes are opened, one by one, in front of everyone, and someone keeps a score.

Seems reasonable to me. Do it with 10 sets, and if you get 25/30 of the pictures right then you pass?

 

[pavel_do]

What if you got them wrong? Would that make you less comfortable? I can see this turning into an excuse for failure. Wouldn't it be better to have something like:

1) You are handed three envelopes and told which three photographs are inside (optional: You have a sheet in front of you with thumbnail images showing what the photos are)

2) You decide which picture is in which envelope and mark each envelope with a marker pen saying which picture is in each, e.g. "Red Ball" etc. (or picture number from the thumbnail sheet)

3) After you have marked all three envelopes, they are placed to one side and you are handed the next set of three envelopes to start from step 1.

4) When all sets are marked, the envelopes are opened, one by one, in front of everyone, and someone keeps a score.

Seems reasonable to me. Do it with 10 sets, and if you get 25/30 of the pictures right then you pass?

No that I would not like because I could “pick up” images in different order. And name them wrong.
So I prefer 1 envelope only out of 3, and do not know the options until I held it and described and drawn my vision. Then I will get to know what are the options and would make my decision based up on my vision.
So, I don’t want to know the options for the current set upfront as that would possible influence my visions. I am finding not knowing the options more reasonable and it improved my results.

1) I am handed the random envelope from the random pair set,

2) I hold it and describe/draw my visions,

3) Only after that I will get to know the set number and from the list on the table (thumbnail images or just a descriptions) I will know what are the options, I will match my vision to one of 3 and announce the answer by naming the envelope that was handed to me.

4) I Would prefer the envelope to be opened immediately.

5) Same procedure with all the rest of the envelopes in run.

Does it sound bad?

We make say 3 trials by 30 pairs per trial (makes it 90 photos in all), if I get 20 out of 30 in any of them, I pass.. GOOD?

p.s.

Also, as soon as the photo named it should be removed from the table aside whether it will be opened immediately as I would prefer or it would remain closed till the end of the run.