My guess is no-one. Or maybe someone for a while, but the challenge isn't where the future of skepticism is at anyway. I think without Randi it will lose personality, what little momentum it has left, if any, and then fade into nothing.
Also, it takes a very skilled magician to know all of the ruses that potential challengers may use. I'm not sure Shermer has the knowledge...?
You been reading my e mails?
In fact this whole thread looks like one of my Outlook folders...
When the time comes, God forbid (yeah I know the G word you'll get over it) I know Jeff Wagg will do more than great. I was priviledged to meet him this year.
Methinks you forgot about 45 smilies on that post.
R.S. Lancaster. He already has the beard and "hairstyle".
Now that's clever.
Me supporting it will kill the idea quickly enough, but it's actually brilliant. I don't know whether you were just being flippant because of the look, but you've hit the nail on the head.
<Realism Mode on>
Randi insists that the person needs to be a conjurer to ensure no trickery is used.
There are no "successors" in the manner that Randi sees it.
Teek's prognosis, should Randi die without a succession plan is a given.
Those three statements are factual and I have corresponded with James Randi on this very subject, so I'm pretty damn confident of my ground here and that he wouldn't disagree with the analysis:
If a successor isn't identified pre-mortem, it's over for JREF. It may struggle on in Randi's memory for a decade, but it would be doomed.
Why not someone like RSL?
Robert Lancaster has:
Huge credibility
Established media presence
Hard-nosed attitude
Excellent organisational skills
A successful history
Respect from the "skeptical community"
So, RSL might be tricked by a conjurer? I don't buy a bar of that myself. Even in a worst case scenario, there are sufficient Banacheks, Penns and Angells to lend a hand, as I'm certain they would. Hell, I had no trouble convinving NZ's top magician to become part of the Kiwi Challenge. They love this stuff. A deal to get expert help from a top magician if someone passed the preliminary challenge wouldn't be hard to arrange.
I have no idea whether RSL is available, or would want the challenge of taking Randi's torch into a new century, but he or someone like him could well fill the role.
But quickly.
In the same vein, Gravy would be another who could twist the role into the direction I'm thinking RSL could. I think the same positive qualities I've listed above could be said of Gravy as easily as RSL.
A conjurer taking over from Randi will inevitably draw comparisons - maybe a step sideways would overcome that and bring a new type of member to JREF.
<Realism Mode off>
And just to double-blind the realism mode of this post, I've just sung the praises of two blokes who I'd be reasonably confident do not have me on their Christmas card list.