Agreed. Short term gain, but would stifle their sales advantage.
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Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla
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Agreed. Short term gain, but would stifle their sales advantage.
lobosrul5
Philosopher
Its not *just* that it won't work for me (that was part of my point though).
But, lets say there were plenty of charging points for when I do go for out of town road-trips, thats only going to be maybe 12 or 15% of my total mileage. So, is it worth it from a pollution point of view (in addition to a financial one) to tow around a battery that is 4 to 6 times bigger on a Tesla than on a Prius instead of burning maybe 60 gl's of gas a year? I really don't think so. Extracting rare-earth minerals and manufacturing the battery currently means carbon emissions and quite a lot actually. The extra battery weight also means more energy usage, and its not as if I can just decide what source my power comes from.
If I needed the range all the time that a Tesla gives then it likely works out that the Tesla is most energy efficient. Someone who has a 100 mi daily commute, will likely be better of with a full BEV though. But I don't think that applies to most people, they'll only be using the ICE on a PHEV that has a 38 mile range on rare occasions.
ETA: in other words, having a small battery with an ICE backup versus just a large battery might actually be best for the environment.
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catsmate
No longer the 1
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- 32,274
Like in normal countries?
jeremyp
Illuminator
Well I know there is in the EU. It seems obvious to me if you want people to use electric vehicles you need to make it as easy as possible which means one network for everybody rather than lots of networks balkanised by manufacturer.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
Well then let the agency that knows what they need do the hiring. The US government instead threw money at a well known pair of welfare queens.
Private companies are not the be all and end all of innovation, especially when it comes to big projects.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
And there are those who think public enterprise is always bad. They make the decisions and we get stuff like private train franchises costing the UK government twice as much (and passengers many multiples more) for half the service.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
The day after the EU rules they have to for the single market.
Here_to_learn
Master Poster
In EU Tesla cars are delivered with a CCS charge port. Older Tesla cars can be rebuilt to support CCS charging.
All Superchargers are CCS (or have two cables, one of them being CCS).
So all Teslas can charge from basically any charging station in EU.
Tesla have opened some of their Superchargers to others EV, so far mostly stations that have available capacity.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
That's the thing... There isn't really that much "innovation" here.
Ok, spaceX has a few new tricks (like reusable boosters, and they have a much slicker layout for the capsule controls) but sending stuff to low Earth orbit should be seen as almost routine by now.
Let companies like spaceX or Boeing handle stuff that's been done before, and let NASA concentrate on the stuff that really pushes the science and engineering.
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Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
If Tesla were smart they would set up their network stations to have a mix of tesla-only and non-tesla stations.
If they have a dozen chargers make half tesla only and half able to charge both Tesla and non Tesla's.
That way Tesla owners won't be as upset over stalls being used by other brands, and Tesla gets the extra revenue from mixed use stalls (plus there may be government subsidies for installing charge points but which might not be available to tesla-exclusive stations.)
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catsmate
No longer the 1
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Private enterprise tends, overall, to be less innovative and risk-taking.
That agency would probably be the Federal Highway Administration.
Probably off topic, but you need more than 60 gallons of fuel. You need the not so simple hybrid system, too. I’m agreeing that it is an interesting analysis, but has little to do with Tesla.
Whereas, the charging infrastructure Tesla has developed is likely the key to their future. Can Tesla exist as a battery provider and charging service company that also sells cars? Or will they be a battery provider and charging service company that used to sell cars?
I’m not really sure at this point.
ETA: The other large pot of untapped value in Tesla is the driving data they continue to collect. But that’s not a driver for those making purchases.
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I think it is best to phase out gasoline, and all the gas stations (they will convert), and all the trucks that deliver the fuel, and everything else associated.
Didn't Tesla say they have a 700 mile car coming out? Takes away excuses from people like my Dad - "300 miles isn't enough!" (and btw...poor you)
Guys on the fishing forum I used to frequent are saying they're going to use ICE as long as possible. They don't realize maybe that it will get very expensive, supply and demand, plus new regulations and fees that may be applied to the providers and to drivers. You will pay extra taxes if you still drive ICE vehicles.
However there may be limited demand for gas for a long time. Fine, but it will get very expensive.
lobosrul5
Philosopher
That's as all may be. But I still think some analysis needs to be done on the environmental impact of towing around a huge lithium battery of which you almost never need the entire capacity of, versus using gasoline on a few occasions. Also long haul battery powered trucking is easily, and I mean at least, 20 years away. I'd expect more like 30. There's gonna be plenty of gas/diesel stations in the US for the rest of my life.
This is getting pretty OT though.
Mike!
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Re
Not to join in an already OT conversation, but I'm going to add, I think the only way they'll manage to electrify over the road trucking will be to completely rethink the way the batteries are used. I envision some form of quick swap battery set up where the truck would pull into a 'station' and a sort of forklift like device removes the drained batteries and installs a set of fresh charged replacements in roughly the same amount of time a refuel used to require. I can't see any other practical way to provide the amount of stored energy over the road trucking will require. Ten-four good buddy, I'm out and down.
If we are going OT, another problem for trucking is the max weight. Adding enough battery takes away cargo capacity.
Just thinking, would towing the battery stack be more efficient?
You'd lose the weight of the diesel engine, though I don't know how heavy an electric would be. No diesel fuel, which is also heavy and takes space.
Definitely an issue.
Extremely quick search, I didn't double check anything....
Hmmm. Well we may need to live with smaller loads for now. There will be compromises, especially at first.
Also, no more trucks hauling petrol around will be nice. Every gas station in every city and tiny town has these trucks delivering fuel constantly. Not anymore! I wonder if that would make a dent? Now they can deliver other things perhaps making up the difference? Sort of.
My Dad's complaint that he can't go far enough on a charge doesn't outweigh the need to be kinder to the environment. Sorry, Dad, that's the trade off. And one day it won't be a problem.
Also, that's a lot of friggin batteries to make and discard, especially world wide. Lots of issues to tackle.
The technology will improve and that's been interesting to see so far.
Many EV types are specific to a battery type. Probably for type of charge circuit installed.
Make the car a generic set voltage setup with a universal type charge circuit. Give all cars a universal battery size and compartment. Now as battery technology improves one could just change to new tech without changing to a new car. The battery pack would be adjusted to use the universal circuit.
Or you could run your lead acid commuter battery pack for work as the road trip lithium unit is at home charging up for the weekend vacation.
If one gets unreliable it's not too difficult to do a core trade for a fresh unit.
Trucks could just use several standard packs depending on how far or power requirements. Locals carry one or two, interstate traffic more.
Make the car a generic set voltage setup with a universal type charge circuit. Give all cars a universal battery size and compartment. Now as battery technology improves one could just change to new tech without changing to a new car. The battery pack would be adjusted to use the universal circuit.
Or you could run your lead acid commuter battery pack for work as the road trip lithium unit is at home charging up for the weekend vacation.
If one gets unreliable it's not too difficult to do a core trade for a fresh unit.
Trucks could just use several standard packs depending on how far or power requirements. Locals carry one or two, interstate traffic more.
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
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It only took two decades for regulators in the EU to force cellphone makers to standardize their charging connector.
Yes but that was not about saving the world. This is, so there are guaranteed to be only adults in the room.
jeremyp
Illuminator
Fundamental problems:
Battery packs are extremely heavy. You're not going to be able to change them without specialist lifting equipment. You aren't going to bed able to swap your lead-acid battery with your lithium battery at home.
Battery packs constitute an extreme electrical hazard. They are designed to supply high voltages and high currents. If people are able to swap them out easily, there will be fatalities.
Modern EVs use the structure of the EV itself to package the battery cells. If you want them to be easily removable as a unit, you have to add extra packaging which will increase the weight of the battery/car combination.
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
...
Given past behaviors, I would absolutely not trust that argument. So long as strong pressure to act in the best interests of all is kept on those making the decisions, it's likely that they'll act correctly, but only if that pressure is maintained and kept greater than those who oppose such.
Fast Eddie B
Philosopher
A very large percentage of the materials of an EV battery at end-of-life are recyclable. Companies are springing up to do just that. The vision of landfills filled with depleted EV batteries is probably not valid.
And “end of life” is a vague concept. Imagine an EV with 300 miles of range losing 2/3 of its battery’s capacity over the years. That 100 mile range used EV could still be useful to a city dweller, let’s say. And the battery pack could still serve other functions, such as home power backup.
Tesla’s take, for one: https://www.tesla.com/support/sustainability-recycling
No doubt.
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Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
Solid-state batteries could be coming soon, which would make the batteries lighter and more energy-dense.
https://electrek.co/2022/07/19/how-solid-state-ev-batteries-could-cut-emissions-by-up-to-39/
For a skeptical take on the Tesla semi, I found this interesting:
Musk has a long history of overpromising, and underdelivering. The video makes it pretty clear.
Like, in 2017 he promised that the electricity would be available for 7 cents/kwh. Even at the time that was wildly optimistic, to put the kindest possible spin on it. (Retail prices were 13-14 cents/kwh at the time, and Tesla currently charges close to 50 cents/kwh for its superchargers.)
https://electrek.co/2022/07/19/how-solid-state-ev-batteries-could-cut-emissions-by-up-to-39/
For a skeptical take on the Tesla semi, I found this interesting:
Musk has a long history of overpromising, and underdelivering. The video makes it pretty clear.
Like, in 2017 he promised that the electricity would be available for 7 cents/kwh. Even at the time that was wildly optimistic, to put the kindest possible spin on it. (Retail prices were 13-14 cents/kwh at the time, and Tesla currently charges close to 50 cents/kwh for its superchargers.)
Checkmite
Skepticifimisticalationist
I cannot properly stress just how important it is to not hold your breath for anything Tesla says is "coming out".
jeremyp
Illuminator
I've not seen an announcement about that, but I think it's unlikely.
The current limitations of lithium batteries have more to do with the laws of physics than the inadequacies of our technology. You can only pack so many lithium ions into a given volume. A doubling in range means a doubling in the size and mass of the battery unless there has been some amazing breakthrough in battery chemistry and I think we'd have heard about that.
Then there's the fact that Tesla is appallingly bad at bringing new cars to market. The Cybertruck was meant to be here in 2021 and now it's going to be 2023 at the earliest. The semi is even worse and they don't seem to have any other new mass production models on the horizon.
lobosrul5
Philosopher
TSLA stock now at $109 a share, down 11.4% for the day, ~71% off its all time high from late last year. I cannot recall a stock behaving this poorly compared to the market at large and not going bankrupt except Netflix in 2011. I'll buy some if it hits ~30 a share.
ETA: someone needs to start a "will this head of lettuce outlast Elon as CEO of Tesla" Twitter feed.
ETA: someone needs to start a "will this head of lettuce outlast Elon as CEO of Tesla" Twitter feed.
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Fast Eddie B
Philosopher
I bought 7 more shares @ the market this morning when the market opened, so about $117/share.
They say “Never try to catch a falling knife”, and this is probably why. Still, even with this purchase my basis for the shares I now own is $47.97/share, so I’m still up. We’ll have to see if that continues to be the case.
tyr_13
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2008
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- 18,095
In regards to trucking going electric being far off - that's overall not very true.
Sure, if you only think about OTR (Long-Haul) trucking, maybe. But that's probably the last kind of trucking to go fully electric. In-port trucking is very quickly becoming dominated by electrics and even semi-autonomous. It's cheaper to have two electrics replace one diesel in those applications for a host of reasons even beyond the fuel savings (including safety in buildings, mechanical maintenance being cheaper, etc).
Regional and local will go electric faster than OTR for many of the same reasons. Distribution centers are very often under 200 miles from their served stores, where they spend quite a lot of time waiting at each location. It isn't hard to see the benefits of fully electric trucks for those.
I don't think Tesla specifically is well positioned to take advantage of those though, especially compared to Volvo and Scania.
Sure, if you only think about OTR (Long-Haul) trucking, maybe. But that's probably the last kind of trucking to go fully electric. In-port trucking is very quickly becoming dominated by electrics and even semi-autonomous. It's cheaper to have two electrics replace one diesel in those applications for a host of reasons even beyond the fuel savings (including safety in buildings, mechanical maintenance being cheaper, etc).
Regional and local will go electric faster than OTR for many of the same reasons. Distribution centers are very often under 200 miles from their served stores, where they spend quite a lot of time waiting at each location. It isn't hard to see the benefits of fully electric trucks for those.
I don't think Tesla specifically is well positioned to take advantage of those though, especially compared to Volvo and Scania.
Shalamar
Dark Lord of the JREF
Tesla has started delivering their semi trucks to Pepsi/Frito Lay.
lobosrul5
Philosopher
Yeah I saw that. It's being used to deliver drinks at only short ranges. Chips at longer ranges since they'd never get to max weight anyways.
As tyr said, it's otr trucking that will be last, hence my statement
that gas/diesel stations will be around for decades. I think, in blue states anyways, we'll eventually see towns banning ice engine use in city limits except possibly on US Highways and Interstates. Long before were 100% electric. Hell I'd like to see it as reality next year, if only so I don't have to listen to all the jackasses who have nothing better to do than rev their engine at night! But political and economic reality makes me think it's decades away excepting Manhattan and SF perhaps.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
Frankly for long distance haulage, the solution is electrified rail, always has been and (unless something like Star Trek transporters are invented) always will be. For short distance haulage, Tesla aren't even in the game as all their efforts are squared at long distance haulage, the cybertruck is not very useful for last few miles delivery.
Oh and on the share price falling; I'd have thought it'd shore up somewhat, on the grounds of with Musk distracted, the company might be in a position to start making sensible decisions as a manufacturer.
jeremyp
Illuminator
The problem with electrified rail is that not all of it is electrified. Even in places where it is electrified like parts of the UK, goods trains still seem to be hauled by diesel locomotives. If I was guessing I’d say this is because goods yards and quarries and so forth generally don’t have overhead wires.
The Cybertruck isn’t designed as a commercial vehicle, by the way. It’s a competitor to things like the electric F150. There are already a number of electric trucks in production that are designed for the last mile, so Tesla would have to do something it has never done before which is enter a new market with EV competitors already in place.
The problem there is that Tesla’s market cap is still too high for the size of car manufacturer it is, even If it is well run.
lobosrul5
Philosopher
Even going diesel rail instead of OTR trucking would massively reduce the carbon emissions for transport of goods. The problem is, politics in America. Trucking is massively subsidized by use of free to use highways in which their share of diesel tax doesn't even come close to paying for wear and tear on the roads. The alternative is for a private company to build out and operate rail lines without any significant subsidies because American's view that as socialism for corporations. Even though we do the same for trucking, its not seen that way.
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/06...to-128-billion-in-costs-on-society-each-year/
Tesla's market cap or P/E ratio never made sense for them at present, but its a growth stock. Which means its their potential future earnings that the market values it so highly. If they became a behemoth and all but cornered the EV market then eventually their valuation at present earnings would make sense. I just don't see that ever happening.
Nessie
Penultimate Amazing
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https://metro.co.uk/2022/12/28/six-...ly-like-owning-a-tesla-at-christmas-18004669/
"Tesla owners were having a truly British Christmas this year by queuing for hours to charge their electric cars. Several snaking queues have been spotted up and down the UK over the last few days. Nearly two dozen cars were logjammed at a charging point in a Waitrose parking lot in the Hertfordshire*village of South Mims on Christmas Day.
One TikTok user said the Tesla owners were waiting around one hour to charge their cars at the station."
"Tesla owners were having a truly British Christmas this year by queuing for hours to charge their electric cars. Several snaking queues have been spotted up and down the UK over the last few days. Nearly two dozen cars were logjammed at a charging point in a Waitrose parking lot in the Hertfordshire*village of South Mims on Christmas Day.
One TikTok user said the Tesla owners were waiting around one hour to charge their cars at the station."
lobosrul5
Philosopher
If Tesla doesn't keep investing in more charging stations this is just gonna be status-quo I'm afraid.
lobosrul5
Philosopher
Interesting, are you saying someone else should build Tesla Superchargers? Another private corporation, or should the taxpayers of the UK pay for it? Either way, I don't believe anyone can legally do so without licensing their technology.
ETA: FYI no other EV's can make use of them.
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