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Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

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plague311

Great minds think...
plague311
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North Dakota
lobosrul5 said:
Agreed... but are they better off with Musk at the helm, than a more normal and competent CEO? I don't think so.

ETA: wow... TSLA losses now surpass half a trillion in market cap for the year.
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Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now.

I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something.

Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good.
 
angrysoba said:
I actually really wish he wasn’t doing this.

I know a lot of people had him pegged as a charlatan from the start and they may have been right. But that said he almost certainly has brought value to Tesla and SpaceX just by wrangling the talented engineers and generating the necessary hype. I never bought into the idea that he was some kind of mercurial genius (unlike some on these forums), but I do think SpaceX and Tesla are good things.

Now Musk is apparently arguing with a Tesla investor on Twitter. As usual, Musk presumably thinks his comebacks are witty and clever, but they are stupid and so is his general approach to Twitter.

https://twitter.com/steinkobbe/status/1605309991304327168?s=46&t=HFzPR1-PI9GzY_RCAEvymw
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I never thought he was a renaissance man, but this level of blundering stupidity is unexpected.
 
lobosrul5 said:
I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it.
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If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time.
 
plague311 said:
Yeah, the losses are massive and going down more and more every day. It's showing at $137 right now.

I am all for it. I have no investments in Tesla, and I think Elmo is a ******* douche. I hope he drills it all into the ground and ends up having to sell it, or gets the boot, or something.

Elmo got lucky and hired the right people, as was mentioned before, but there's more to it than that. He should let Tesla buy him out and stick with Twitter. That way I can continue to watch this fall apart even more and still feel good.
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IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.
 
The Don said:
IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.
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The chart shows another halving is perfectly possible, and.merely makes the stock 200% more expensive than pre covid.
 
The Don said:
IMO Tesla Motors is vastly over-priced and the market valuation cannot in any way be justified objectively.

The electric vehicles market is rapidly maturing and although Tesla has had significant advantages technologically and as an early market leader, its long term future is likely to be something like BMW, a niche maker of volume prestige products.

Meanwhile they will come increasingly under competition from existing auto-makers like Kia, VAG, Mercedes, Toyota et al. who really are getting their collective acts together and from new entrants from China who stand to sweep up the value end of the market.

IMO Tesla's "true" value is 10%-20% of its current market capitalisation.
Click to expand...

The question that interests me at the moment is whether Elon Musk going back to Tesla would have a positive or negative effect on its market cap.

Until he took over Twitter, Musk's management "style" has never really had the spotlight it. It's now fairly apparent that he is not any good at it. Maybe, now that people have realised Musk is not a god, they will start examining the fundamentals of Tesla: firstly, you are correct about the share price. Tesla is vastly overvalued. Secondly, Tesla is in a bad position in the industry. Competition is increasing and Tesla doesn't really know how to put a car into production. I think it's missed the boat as a volume producer and its products are not good enough to compete in the Audi/BMW space. Build quality is allegedly terrible and some of the cars e.g. model 3 look cheap even though they are not.

Tesla needs somebody who knows how to run a car company and Twitter tells us that Musk is not that person.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Tesla would have been a better thing (but not so massively overvalued) without Musk, and without SpaceX, NASA would have been much further along in the rocket programme.
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I don't know about that SpaceX thing. We were left with no manned space launch system for quite a number of years. Would lack of SpaceX existing have made NASA more efficient in manned missions, and/or given them more funding? I really rather doubt it.
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Keep in mind that both Blue Origins and Boeing have both had some success. (Blue Origins has several manned space flights, and Boeing has run a resupply mission to the IIS and has a manned mission planned for 2023.)

Admittedly both of these are trailing SpaceX, who seemed to have more early success. But, its possible that without SpaceX, both Blue Origins and Boeing might have gotten a bigger chunk of cash (which might have helped them speed up their early development.)
 
About the 8 car pileup...


The pileup took place just hours after Tesla CEO Elon Musk had announced that Tesla’s driver-assist software “full self-driving” was available to anyone in North America who requested it. Tesla had previously restricted access to drivers with high safety scores on its rating system.

“Full self-driving” is designed to keep up with traffic, steer in the lane and abide by traffic signals. It requires an attentive human driver prepared to take full control of the car at any moment. It’s delighted some drivers but also alarmed others with its limitations. Drivers are warned by Tesla when they install “full self-driving” that it “may do the wrong thing at the worst time.”
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Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus!

Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here.

However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story.

It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault.

ETA:
I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions.
 
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mgidm86 said:
About the 8 car pileup...





Gee, I wonder if Tesla will be sued anyways? Jeebus!

Then again, at least in California, the person who rear-ends another car is legally at fault, barring any extenuating circumstances. The theory is that you were not following at a safe distance, and half the people on the road drive bumper to bumper at 70 mph around here.

However, if this car slowed down right after switching lanes in front of other cars that is a different matter. Not sure about that part of the story.

It may not be the Tesla/driver that is legally at fault.

ETA:
I think that law also covers a car broken down in the middle of the road on a blind turn, hitting a rock that had rolled down a hill and stopped in the road, person in a wheelchair. Your fault. Again, the reasoning is that you were going too fast for the conditions.
Click to expand...

If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
If NASA were given sufficient funding to create their own system rather than the whole project being used as a source of corporate welfare, it would be much further along. NASA have been starved of funding for a long time.
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Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel;
What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done?
 
TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.
 
lobosrul5 said:
TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.
Click to expand...

“Masterful gambit, sir!”
 
lobosrul5 said:
If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.
Click to expand...
That seems kind of... weird/backwards. We are always encouraged "leave enough stopping distance". And in my driver's ed class (decades ago, but I don't think things have changed that much) we were told that if there is a rear-end collision the person behind is ALWAYS at fault. (Well, assuming nobody is going backwards.)

The instructor gave a story about one of his students. She was brand new and nervous. The first time behind the wheel, she saw a stoplight turn red and stopped, but she was far away from the intersection (i.e. still had 50 yards or so to go.) Someone hit her car. The instructor thought "this won't go well for the student" but the police told the second driver that it was all his fault.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.
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One of the weird things about technology.

Tesla (or any other company) can in theory make a driverless system that is safer/outperforms a human 9 times out of 10, something that can avoid accidents that a human might either cause themselves, or are unable to avoid. But if it fails that one time out of 10, it will be see as evidence of "not ready for use" (even if the automated system didn't CAUSE the problem, but just couldn't avoid it.)

I don't really know if Tesla's system is safer than humans driving. But its going to be hard to get people to accept it even if it is.
 
lobosrul5 said:
If you have to stop and you get rear-ended its pretty much never your fault... if you stomp the breaks just for funzies, or to brake test the vehicle behind you... its gonna be your fault. At least in my area.

Anyways, no. It won't legally be Tesla's fault I'm sure. But it is weird that they can't legally have self driving cars, while selling cars that will, given perfect conditions and no glitches, drive themselves.
Click to expand...


That can be an extenuating circumstance and could be argued for sure. But again, the other driver was too close. It would need to be proven. "I thought I saw a squirrel"

That second paragraph should allow a lawsuit but I'm no lawyer. Tesla breaks the law selling cars that can be operated autonomously, writes the software, the software causes a crash, supposedly.
 
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lobosrul5 said:
TSLA had yet another no good rotten very bad day. Now down about 36% for December, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is down "just" 10% or so for the month. In other words, disaster, even compared to the most appropriate index to compare them to.
Click to expand...

Tesla shares tumble, on track for worst month ever

Dec 22 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shares are on track for their worst month ever as a sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Chief Executive Elon Musk's distraction with Twitter.

The stock dropped almost 10% on Thursday to their lowest level since September 2020 after the automaker's website showed it was offering $7,500 discounts on Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles delivered in the United States this month.
Click to expand...
 
angrysoba said:
Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla.
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The shares were overvalued to begin with, and are simply coming closer to what one might reasonably expect them to be worth.

I've posted this before, but even at the current share price, Tesla's market cap is over twice that of Toyota, but Toyota's earnings are more than twice Tesla's. The P/E ratio is over three times higher than Toyota.

Frankly, I think that Musk's antics are harming the Tesla brand. If you want an electric vehicle, Tesla is not the only option. Their market share is declining.

Why Tesla’s Market Share Is Set To Plunge In 2023
 
dudalb said:
Forgive me, but you seem opposed to the mere idea of Private Space Travel;
What is wrong with a government hiring a private company to do work if it is the most economical way to get it done?
Click to expand...

Caveat - IF it's actually the most economical way to do it.
 
angrysoba said:
Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!"

Link
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There’s a new US government subsidy coming in in January. Nobody in America wants to buy a Tesla this month, they want them next month.
 
The general trend is for Electricity prices to remain high, as cars that used to run on gasoline become electrified.
Add to that the increased need for climate change mitigation through electric AC.
 
Lplus said:
There are those who don't care if it's the most economical way or not, if it's private enterprise it's bad.
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Equally vociferous are the "private enterprise is always better" advocates.
 
angrysoba said:
Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?
Click to expand...

Here in the UK demand for electric vehicles is very strong but Tesla is losing market share.

Part of it is that there is far more choice at the Tesla price points from well established manufacturers and part of it is that Teslas are very expensive here in the UK and so people are choosing less expensive models both from well established manufacturers and from new entrants into the market from China.

The MG4 is currently getting good reviews. It may not have the range of a Tesla, but it'd be good enough for most people most of the time but it costs under £27k, the cheapest Model 3 is over £45k.

My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla.
 
angrysoba said:
Interesting. So this fall in price could be temporary….?
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I'm going to partially walk back what I said. The new tax credit is a major factor, but there are several others.

https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/why-used-tesla-ev-prices-dropping/

I think Tesla is in trouble regardless of the tax credit situation. It's got no new models. The second hand market is saturated. Other manufacturers are beginning to erode its market position. The CEO is AWOL (although that might be a positive).
 
The Don said:
My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla.
Click to expand...

Likewise. My current car is a 2014 Audi but it's got plenty of life in it yet. I can wait for years before I have to make a decision on a new car. What I can say is it will be a cold day in hell before I put money into the pocket of Elon Musk.
 
At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/g41954660/2023-toyota-prius-prime-revealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.
 
lobosrul5 said:
At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/g41954660/2023-toyota-prius-prime-revealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.
Click to expand...

Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...?
 
azazal said:
Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...?
Click to expand...

Oh yeah there are parallels between this and Detroit (or British Leyland) circa 1980. I don't recall if any of those companies had major shareholders leverage their holdings as part of a leveraged buyout of a media company and then started using it as a mouthpiece to spew garbage that many of their potential buyers disliked though.
 
lobosrul5 said:
At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/g41954660/2023-toyota-prius-prime-revealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.
Click to expand...

The Tesla charging network is their ace in the hole. If anyone else had anything similar there would be little reason to buy a Tesla.
 
Dr. Keith said:
The Tesla charging network is their ace in the hole. If anyone else had anything similar there would be little reason to buy a Tesla.
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My thoughts on that are...

I've been looking at their plans for buildouts in my area (New Mexico). And they've already fallen behind what they said. Its not possible to get around all of rural NM or Colorado without being very very careful on where you charge, and if one station is down, you could be stranded. Look at the supercharger map and you'll see huge gaps in north central NM and south central Co. ETA: huge gap in SE New Mexico, but I'd never travel down there for any reason that I can think of.

But more than that... so there are resource costs to build lithium-ion batteries. Including carbon emissions. For my usage the 35 mi or so range of the new Prius is plenty for day to day usage. I'd probably only put 3 or 4 thousand miles on the ICE each year, or about 60 to 80 gls of gas. Is that enough to make building and towing around Tesla's much larger battery more economical, even from a carbon emission standpoint? I really doubt it.

I think the PHEV model for much of the world is going to be the way to go for a number of decades.
 
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I understand BEVs don’t work for as many people as a PHEV would. I was just pointing out the one real advantage Tesla currently has over its competitors: you get twice as many charging points, more or less.

So, more areas are drivable in a Tesla BEV than in a VAG, Stellantis, GM, Korean Twin, or Ford BEV.

But that may not mean that your area is driveable in any BEV, yet.
 
How long until Tesla makes some form of adapter that will allow all vehicles charge from their stations so that they can charge them for it? It would actually be a good move.
 
Dr. Keith said:
I understand BEVs don’t work for as many people as a PHEV would. I was just pointing out the one real advantage Tesla currently has over its competitors: you get twice as many charging points, more or less.

So, more areas are drivable in a Tesla BEV than in a VAG, Stellantis, GM, Korean Twin, or Ford BEV.

But that may not mean that your area is driveable in any BEV, yet.
Click to expand...

There needs to be legislation to make charging points universal.
 
plague311 said:
How long until Tesla makes some form of adapter that will allow all vehicles charge from their stations so that they can charge them for it? It would actually be a good move.
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Not sure of the time frame, but Tesla definitely has plans to open its Supercharger network to other brands.

Pros: Could end up being a huge revenue source going forward, plus it may entitle them to more government incentives for doing so.

Cons: Nothing will disillusion current Tesla owners faster than having to wait for a Supercharger because the stalls are filled with other brands. Right now, a major selling point for Tesla is their Supercharger network. That selling point vanishes if any EV can use it. Tesla will need to continue to grow its Supercharger network to keep up with demand.
 
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