How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Chanakya, do you know the influenza pandemic is over? Why or why not?

Which one? The HPAI H5N1 is still smoldering. It hasn't adapted to spread easily person to person. It was first recognized in Hong Kong in 1997. It may never make that leap, or it might have already occurred in some obscure village in an African country that has a poor public health infrastructure.

The more animals and people who contract it the more likely a deadly pandemic will evolve.

I, for one, will never let my guard down or underestimate the potential for the next deadly influenza pandemic. History tells us it will happen we just don't know when.


CDC update Dec 2023

 

[8enotto]

That 98% of the population is definitely at the post-pandemic stage, and only the WHO is mentioning covid because they want more funds. Not even medical establishments here (or anywhere else I know of) insist on masks any more. Covid has only been killing people with a toe-tag already ordered for a couple of years now. I'd say well under 1% of non-Asians are wearing masks right now and Asians were wearing them prior to covid so don't count.

There is, however, a tiny minority of people who want to stay in pandemic mode forever. They're clearly suffering from some form of societal anxiety/phobia and it suits them to socially distance and mask up so they don't have to interact with actual people in the real world.

It's quite sad, really.

I suspect a lot of the folks who can't let go lost grandparents, parents or lived in harder hit areas.

It's like that here in my city. In my mostly rural part population density is lower, less contact. In town houses are packed tight on tiny lots and older folks lived there for reduced yard care and house keeping.
Thats where population density and death rate was far higher.

My 85 year old FIL had a few in his siblings very concerned about getting any sicker than they already were. One died during 2022 of heart problems, the rest are still here.
Try telling them faith in god and CV precautions are a joke. They know what spared them!

 

[The Atheist]

I think some people see pandemic lockdown as a way to destroy capitalism, and usher in an age of human suffering like nothing ever seen before in recorded history.

That too.

The idea that the world could implement the protocols used at Davos would make the cost of the original lockdowns look like pocket change.

As for ignoring COVID preventative measures like it's one's religious conviction to do so, go suck eggs.

Nice strawman you created there - nobody is doing that.

What I and others are saying is that the vast majority of the population has zero interest in taking precautions.

For Zarquon's sake, thousands of people were protesting violently about restrictions when they were absolutely necessary - trying to implement restrictions now is far beyond absurd, and completely unnecessary.

We are all individuals in different countries. I'm severely immunocompromised with an autoimmune respiratory disease. I don't care if you wear a mask or not. Same with getting vaccinated.

I've stated many times that I am fully vaccinated and recommend vaccination to everyone who asks me, as many people do. My son is also immunocompromised with an auto-immune disease that has already cost him 30 cm of lower intestine. He wears a mask and I wear one as well. That's my choice, but I don't expect anyone else to wear one.

I suspect a lot of the folks who can't let go lost grandparents, parents or lived in harder hit areas.

No problem there - if I was 90 I wouldn't go outside without a mask, but I still wouldn't be crying about other people not doing so.

 

[dann]

The article, as is all too common, provides different stats for Covid-19 v Flu. The former has an increase over a month 73%, the latter over a week, 29%. But, I suppose, consistency is the hopgoblin of small minds.

That said, Covid-19 CFR's are still more fatal. However, since Flu is increasing about twice as fast as Covid-19 (29% v 15%* per week *C19 stats adjusted for monthly to weekly) Flu is currently more contagious than Covid-19.

It would have sufficed to simply say that Covid-19 is much more fatal than the flu - not just in Denmark, not just in England, not just in San Diego, but in all of the USA as well.
And it is much more fatal all year round:

Week Ending: 2023-12-09
COVID-19: 3.2%
Influenza: 0.5%
RSV: 0.1%
Trends in Viral Respiratory Deaths in the United States - Weekly percent of total deaths associated with COVID-19, influenza, and RSV (CDC.gov)

In fact, in the week when the flu was at its worst in the chart, Week Ending: 2022-12-17, the percentages were:

COVID-19: 4.8%
Influenza: 1.6%
RSV: 0.1%

And then, of course, there are the 12 weeks when the seasonal flu, unlike COVID-19, is at 0.

COVID-19 was at its lowest in the week ending 23-07-15: 0.9%
COVID-19 was at its highest in the two weeks ending 23-01-07 and 23-01-14: 5.6%

We all know that these numbers won't prevent our resident minimizers from continuing to claim that COVID-19 is just like the flu or the common cold. It will just make the lie more obvious for those of us who remember them.

And I'm sorry, but this is one of the most ridiculous arguments I've heard about the flu and COVID-19 so far:
"Because Covid-19 is so spread out compared to flu that even though its impact is similar to a bad flu season overall, it's not stressing health care."

So spread out that it's not stressing health care! Take a look at the CDC chart!

 

[dann]

I do care about people amplifying misinformation just because they are annoyed not everyone wants to take the same, 'ignore it', POV.

I care too, and so do several other people in the thread, but The Atheist nevertheless insists that

Nobody cares.

It's the background noise of pandemic gaslighting.

 

[icerat]

That 98% of the population is definitely at the post-pandemic stage, and only the WHO is mentioning covid because they want more funds. Not even medical establishments here (or anywhere else I know of) insist on masks any more. Covid has only been killing people with a toe-tag already ordered for a couple of years now. I'd say well under 1% of non-Asians are wearing masks right now and Asians were wearing them prior to covid so don't count.

There is, however, a tiny minority of people who want to stay in pandemic mode forever. They're clearly suffering from some form of societal anxiety/phobia and it suits them to socially distance and mask up so they don't have to interact with actual people in the real world.

It's quite sad, really.

In the US alone some 40000 people a week are being hospitalised by a disease that didn't even exist a little over 4 years ago. That's on top of all the diseases we already had.

Around the world, thousands - likely tens of thousands - are being added to the ranks of Long Covid sufferers every day.

And we still no little about the long-term consequences of even one SARS-Cov-2 infection, let alone multiple infections a year - but what indications we do have are extremely concerning.

 

[dann]

Director-General of WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:

Respiratory illnesses from #COVID19, flu and other pathogens have been on the increase in many countries for weeks and this is expected to continue following the recent holidays.
As individuals: make sure to test and seek care when needed because COVID-19 treatments can prevent severe disease and death. Continue to use masks, ventilation and distancing to reduce exposures, and make sure you and your loved ones are up to date on your COVID-19 and flu shots.
As governments: provide access to reliable tests, treatments and vaccines, especially to those who are most at risk for severe infection.
Keep up surveillance, sequencing and reporting to track COVID-19 virus evolution, and provide clear messaging about the risks and measures to reduce risk for your populations.
These @WHO recommendations provide more about what is needed by governments to tackle the continued global threats of COVID-19:
Standing recommendations for COVID-19 issued by the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) in accordance with the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR)
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (X, Jan 5, 2023)

For some reason, I no longer see these messages from WHO in the media in Denmark:
Aconseja OMS continuar con las mascarillas y la vacunación ante creciente incidencia de la covid-19 en el mundo (JuventudRebelde.cu, Jan 7, 2023)

 

[dann]

Weekly case update: Monday 1 January to Sunday 7 January.
There were 6,558 cases reported last week in total, 3,999 of those were reinfections.
The 7-day rolling average of new cases is 936.
Unite against COVID-19 @covid19nz (X, Jan 8, 2023)

Cases currently in hospital: 355
Cases currently in ICU/HDU: 6
COVID-19 cases summary

 

[dann]

Chanakya, do you know the influenza pandemic is over? Why or why not?

Why or why not look it up yourself?!

 

[dann]

Covid has only been killing people with a toe-tag already ordered for a couple of years now. I'd say well under 1% of non-Asians are wearing masks right now and Asians were wearing them prior to covid so don't count.

The principle is that everything is interpreted by The Atheist as proving his point.
His most disgusting idea, the toe-tag one, doesn't need any reference to facts whatsoever.
As I mentioned above, Jonathan Howard witnessed toe-tags being used at a hospital during the first year of the pandemic before the bodies of COVID-19 victims were stored in refrigerator trucks outside hospitals, and he will be addressing the idea in one of the next episodes of his podcast series.

But since The Atheist doesn't listen to anything pandemic-related that doesn't come out of the Brownstone Institute, I doubt that he will ever understand it. He also doesn't seem to understand that, if true, his 'toe-tag' (or dry tinder) idea should have resulted in subsequent exiguous deaths. But for some reason, we still see excess deaths in most of the Western world except in the places where they have now started incorporating the first pandemic years in their calculations, which is an ingenious way to make excess deaths disappear. In the future, the only way to see the excess deaths caused by the pandemic may be in statistics of life expectancy.
Life expectancy - 1770 to 2021 (Our World in Data)

Notice that dip at the end of the life-expectancy curves? It is amazing that killing only people with (allegedly) just a few weeks of life left in them can have an impact like that, isn't it?!

That Asians don't count because they always masked up during pandemics is hilarious. They knew how to protect themselves then, and they still do, so they don't count - unlike the ignorant Westerners who never knew and still don't. They are the ones who should be our role models.
(By the way, far from all Asians mask up, unfortunately. It's how a face mask study could be carried out in Bangladesh.)

 

[The Atheist]

And we still no little about the long-term consequences of even one SARS-Cov-2 infection, let alone multiple infections a year - but what indications we do have are extremely concerning.

That's all true, but irrelevant.

People won't take precautions, and thankfully no government is trying to make them.

I made the comment elsewhere that covid might even be the end game. If - as suspected - life expectancy is shorted by any amount from covid infections, and we add in reduced immunity to other diseases, which may be driving the "tripledemic" it might get a lot worse yet.

Try telling blokes their dick will drop off if they catch covid, then see if they wear masks. In the lack of that, people will continue to completely ignore covid, and no screeching from the sidelines is going to change attitudes.

That Asians don't count because they always masked up during pandemics is hilarious.

Your understanding of English gets worse by the day.

I was pointing out that whether they wear masks now isn't to do with covid, but because they habitually wear them.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That too.

The idea that the world could implement the protocols used at Davos would make the cost of the original lockdowns look like pocket change. ...

For Zarquon's sake, thousands of people were protesting violently about restrictions when they were absolutely necessary - trying to implement restrictions now is far beyond absurd, and completely unnecessary.

Nice strawman you created there. No one here is doing that or even suggesting a lockdown. Not sure about China.

Nice strawman you created there - nobody is doing that.

What I and others are saying is that the vast majority of the population has zero interest in taking precautions.

I didn't quote you, did I. But this is the kind of comment I am addressing. TP is worse making up paranoid nonsense that lockdowns are a plot yada yada...

 

[dann]

I was pointing out that whether they wear masks now isn't to do with covid, but because they habitually wear them.

I spent the last 2 weeks traveling in Japan. Subways full mostly unmasked people.

You guys should ask somebody to help you coordinate your nonsensical arguments against PPE.

 

[icerat]

That's all true, but irrelevant.

People won't take precautions, and thankfully no government is trying to make them.

I'm actually not a fan of mandates except in rare instances. I'm definitely not a fan of misinformation however. We need education, not misinformation.

I made the comment elsewhere that covid might even be the end game. If - as suspected - life expectancy is shorted by any amount from covid infections, and we add in reduced immunity to other diseases, which may be driving the "tripledemic" it might get a lot worse yet.

Mmm, it's bets on whether Covid or Climate Change causes the collapse of civilisation first ..

Try telling blokes their dick will drop off if they catch covid, then see if they wear masks.

It actually does cause erectile dysfunction, which is no surprise as a vascular disease.

In the lack of that, people will continue to completely ignore covid, and no screeching from the sidelines is going to change attitudes.

Masks have been too ideological poisoned, and personally I think are third choice. We simply need to do what we did once we accepted waterborne disease was a problem - we cleaned the water.

Sure you can do that at point of use, and a lot of places still do, but clean communal water is what the aspire too.

Accept that airborne disease is a problem and clean the air. Masks are point of use, but ventilation and filters can have a dramatic effect, not to meantio far-UV. It ends up that current building codes in most places *already* require removal of pathogens, it's just nobody is doing it. All we have to do is implement existing regulations using modern tech, and IMO we can *dramatically* impact public health.

 

[The Atheist]

No one here is doing that or even suggesting a lockdown.

Maybe you could try reading what I actually typed. I specifically mentioned cost but you've chosen to ignore that, or deliberately misrepresent it.

TP is worse making up paranoid nonsense that lockdowns are a plot yada yada...

Wow. I don't know what you're smoking but it must be really potent - you're on a completely different page.

I'm actually not a fan of mandates except in rare instances. I'm definitely not a fan of misinformation however. We need education, not misinformation.

People will only be educated about things they want to be educated about. Interest in covid is so close to zero there's no chance people will bother to inform themselves.

It actually does cause erectile dysfunction, which is no surprise as a vascular disease.

Fairly small percentage of guys, sadly. If you can get it to 80-90% you'll get some traction.

Accept that airborne disease is a problem and clean the air. Masks are point of use, but ventilation and filters can have a dramatic effect, not to meantio far-UV. It ends up that current building codes in most places *already* require removal of pathogens, it's just nobody is doing it. All we have to do is implement existing regulations using modern tech, and IMO we can *dramatically* impact public health.

That's the bit I can't have. The cost would be prohibitive everywhere in the world. Schools in NZ are ventilated by windows and the cost of giving just schools adequate clean air would run into billions of dollars we don't have. Add in every medical facility and office and you're talking numbers more than our GDP.

Then there's the issue of skilled people to do it. Given that we can't find enough people to put HVAC systems in data centres, the chances of getting just schools done is plain fantasy. NZ is a relatively rich country and if we can't do it there's even less chance other countries can.

The idea that we can use tech to fix it is nonsensical.

 

[dann]

I'm actually not a fan of mandates except in rare instances. I'm definitely not a fan of misinformation however. We need education, not misinformation.

People will only be educated about things they want to be educated about. Interest in covid is so close to zero there's no chance people will bother to inform themselves.

The Atheist doesn't want to be educated about the pandemic. His interest in epidemiology is close to zero and he won't bother informing himself. On the contrary, he excels in spreading disinformation and has filled this thread and others with it.

It actually does cause erectile dysfunction, which is no surprise as a vascular disease.

Fairly small percentage of guys, sadly. If you can get it to 80-90% you'll get some traction.

That is The Atheist trying to be outrageous while minimizing the impact of the pandemic: 'Not enough men get COVID-19-generated erectile dysfunction.'

Accept that airborne disease is a problem and clean the air. Masks are point of use, but ventilation and filters can have a dramatic effect, not to meantio far-UV. It ends up that current building codes in most places *already* require removal of pathogens, it's just nobody is doing it. All we have to do is implement existing regulations using modern tech, and IMO we can *dramatically* impact public health.

That's the bit I can't have. The cost would be prohibitive everywhere in the world. Schools in NZ are ventilated by windows and the cost of giving just schools adequate clean air would run into billions of dollars we don't have. Add in every medical facility and office and you're talking numbers more than our GDP.

Then there's the issue of skilled people to do it. Given that we can't find enough people to put HVAC systems in data centres, the chances of getting just schools done is plain fantasy. NZ is a relatively rich country and if we can't do it there's even less chance other countries can.

The idea that we can use tech to fix it is nonsensical.

Any (easily solved) practical problem (and solution!) lowering the spread of the virus is an insurmountable obstacle to The Atheist: "plain fantasy", "nonsensical" etc. for no other reason than because he says so! 'Don't mess with the virus! It's good for you!':

The poster has consistently pleaded for the precautions taken at Davos to be taken up globally.
That is ignorant, impossible and insane, and that's what I'm referring to.
The disease exists and will continue to exist, although the trajectory its on almost certainly means it will become less of a problem, because we now know that repeated exposure creates stronger immunity. 5 more years and it's likely to be just another coronavirus.

(That the virus keeps mutating and evading that allegedly "stronger immunity" while weakening immunity is of no concern to him.)

When #DavosStandard as a practical example proves that the spread of the virus can be limited, The Atheist is upset because he sees it as a threat to his herd-immunity-by-infection ideology. It also costs good money that should stay in the pockets of billionaires:

No, I don't expect or care whether anyone listens to me. Those who did made a heap of money and those who didn't, didn't.

The Atheist is one of the most obvious examples of the fact that business calculations, the market economy, capitalism, is the main obstacle to proper health-care interventions: Protecting people's health just isn't feasible to his line of thinking unless those people happen to be billionaires.
If they happen to be school children, precautions to protect their health are "ignorant, impossible and insane." 'Tech is there to serve the rich and make a heap of money for them. Tech shouldn't be squandered on protecting the health of ordinary people and their kids.'

 

[dann]

Canary Islands announce new Covid face mask rules and they're coming into force tomorrow (Express.co.uk, Jan 8, 2024)

Both Covid and flu is on the rise across Spain and its islands, leading to pressures on hospitals
The Canary Islands have joined a growing list of Spanish holiday hotspots introducing face mask rules.
It comes as Covid and flu cases soar across the nation with hospitalisations on the rise.
As of Tuesday, those visiting the Canaries will have to use masks when visiting health centres, chemists and hospitals - with the Canary government stating that the rules will remain while the peak of the epidemic plays out. Up until now, masks were simply recommended in these settings, but they will now be mandatory in both public and private healthcare facilities across the islands.
Canary Islands bring back face mask rules as Covid cases surge across Spain (Chronicle.co.uk, Jan 9, 2024)

The surge appears to have come later in Spain than in Northern Europe.

 

[The Atheist]

Any (easily solved) practical problem (and solution!) lowering the spread of the virus is an insurmountable obstacle to The Atheist: "plain fantasy", "nonsensical" etc. for no other reason than because he says so! 'Don't mess with the virus! It's good for you!':

Yet again you blatantly misrepresent what I've posted even though it's there in black and white.

I spelled out precisely why it's fantasy and you offer no counter other than your insane opinion that it's possible. I know your English is poor, but your maths and economics must be a hell of a lot worse.

When #DavosStandard as a practical example proves that the spread of the virus can be limited, The Atheist is upset because he sees it as a threat to his herd-immunity-by-infection ideology.

And straight on to blatant lying.

I repeat, I gave you the reason it's impossible and it had nothing to do with herd immunity.

It also costs good money that should stay in the pockets of billionaires:

Thus confirming your abject ignorance about economics. Billionaires hardly pay any tax, and the money for sterilisation of the air at schools, hospitals and public facilities is paid by the government, from taxes.

The Atheist is one of the most obvious examples of the fact that business calculations, the market economy, capitalism, is the main obstacle to proper health-care interventions: Protecting people's health just isn't feasible to his line of thinking unless those people happen to be billionaires.
If they happen to be school children, precautions to protect their health are "ignorant, impossible and insane." 'Tech is there to serve the rich and make a heap of money for them. Tech shouldn't be squandered on protecting the health of ordinary people and their kids.'

It's blatantly obvious why you don't try supporting your fantasy with actual evidence, because you don't understand any part of how the economy works.

Pretty funny though, so please do go on.

I'll even give you an example to play with, because it's something I'm quite well-versed in. The approximate cost of sterilising the air at school in New Zealand is about $5 billion.

Explain where that money is going to come from, but more importantly, explain how you're going to do it in a market where there are no people to do the work.

I need a good laugh.

 

[dann]

The really good laugh is on The Atheist!
He seems to have missed that my alleged blatant misrepresentation of his posts could be checked immediately since I quoted them, which also makes his accusation that I'm blatantly lying a blatant lie.

As for the practical as well as now apparently also economical impossibility of cleaning the air at schools, I present you with nothing less than an inexpensive, but powerful solution:

An epidemic of absenteeism
During the 2022–23 school year, over a third of Colorado K-12 students were chronically absent—defined as missing 10% of the school days in a year. That’s up from one in five students before the pandemic. Students are absent from school for a myriad of reasons—bullying, transportation problems and financial hardship—and asthma stands out as the leading cause of absenteeism due to chronic illness.

Funded by Colorado’s Ryan Innovation Fund, Hernandez started testing air purifiers in Denver Public School (DPS) classrooms in 2020, in an effort to help reopen schools under better conditions during the pandemic.

“When the pandemic broke out, there were a lot of people introducing air purifiers in classrooms. But many of the purifiers weren't sized correctly, didn’t work well or were too loud. No one had systematically assessed the purifiers’ performance in actual educational settings at this scale” Hernandez said.

In 2021, Hernandez and his team installed air purifiers coupled with air quality monitors in 20 public elementary school buildings with funding from the Intel Corporation and the Carrier Company. Most of the schools are located along the I-25 and I-70 highways, and their proximity to high-traffic corridors and industrial zones increases students’ exposure to air pollution, which could worsen the effects of COVID-19. In some of these schools, more than 20% of the students have asthma.
(...)

An inexpensive, but powerful solution
Hernandez estimates that effectively reducing airborne particles in indoor air pollution with air purifiers would cost $65 per student, per classroom, per year.

“Installing a couple of air purifiers in a classroom is cheaper than a textbook, but schools are always strapped for money. Now we have data that shows these commonly available appliances, which don’t disrupt teaching, can be systematically prioritized. It’s well worth it in both the immediate and long term,” Hernandez said.

The project has a huge community and educational impact, Hernandez added. He is proud of the students and contractors who worked day and night to install the air monitors in thousands of classrooms over the past summer. Many of the young researchers working on the project are first-generation college students who come from communities disproportionately affected by air pollution and COVID-19. Studies have found that Black and Hispanic students have the highest asthma rates in the U.S.
Can air purifiers help keep kids in school? New study seeks to find out (University of Colorado, Boulder, Sep 27, 2023)

As for The Atheists claims about my "abject ignorance about economics. Billionaires hardly pay any tax, and the money for sterilisation of the air at schools, hospitals and public facilities is paid by the government, from taxes."
Here's an idea that would never occur to him because his focus is on making billionaires earn more money than they already do: "Those who did made a heap of money and those who didn't, didn't."
The very simple idea is: Make those billionaires pay for the air purifiers for each and every school and place of work!

You could also build them yourself - The Effectiveness of DIY Air Filtration Units (CDC) - but I still think that making billionaires buy them is the better solution.

(It's no secret that the very best solution would be to revolutionize society to prevent it from serving the interests of billionaires at the cost of the health and well-being of ordinary people and their children, but that is too blatantly obvious for the likes of The Atheist to grasp!)

 

[The Atheist]

The really good laugh is on The Atheist!

If you think suggesting unproven technology as the answer, you're very much mistaken.

As usual.

 

[The Atheist]

The very simple idea is: Make those billionaires pay for the air purifiers for each and every school and place of work!

I'm quoting that separately just to highlight the extremity of the ignorance.

Maybe it would work in your communist haven of Cuba, but other countries don't allow governments to steal money off rich people just because some complete idiot thinks they should.

 

[dann]

I do care about people amplifying misinformation just because they are annoyed not everyone wants to take the same, 'ignore it', POV.

Fortunately, there are still some people out there who care and who amplify good information:

I love my primary care provider a lot. I can’t describe what a boost this email from them, announcing their masking requirement, gave me yesterday. Check out the facts, the data, the explanations! A+

The Health Center Requiring Masks
We are requiring masks be worn in The Health Center by all staff, except in their private offices, by all patients, and by those who come with patients of the medical, dental, and counseling services. This requirement is in contrast to masking policies in other facilities at present.

We all have COVID fatigue and wish it would go away. But it is surging, not waning: Vermont hospitalizations and positive tests are at new heights and increasing.

The illness is now killing about 1,500 Americans a week. COVID is still, with immunizations having been in use for some three years, about 8 times as lethal as Influenza, with unnecessary deaths, estimated at 40,000 a year, from lack of using Paxlovid when it is diagnosed. Since rapid tests are not reported, health department case counts are substantially lower than the actual number of cases which are occurring.

And COVID, even relatively mild cases, is causing an accumulating number of cases of Long COVID, which can be disabling and has no cure, as yet. This potentially devastating illness is about four times as apt to occur in women, with a peak of unexpected heart attacks in those 25 to 44 years old.

We are a small organization. A couple of cases of COVID in our staff, medical, psych, or dental, substantially reduces our capacity to see patients, while these services are in short supply in our region, as they are nationwide.

So wearing a mask adds protection, for one's self and for others. Not wearing one is not an option. Like the "no shirt / no shoes, no service" policies at some stores and restaurants, this is a condition of entry and of having care here. It is a small price to pay to protect others, even if you think you are invulnerable.

ames (X, Jan 9, 2024)

I wish those guys were in charge of the Danish public health care system instead of the idiots who are currently spreading disinformation about the virus.
Tell Bernie Sanders that Denmark needs to look to Vermont for inspiration in the case of the pandemic. There is nothing to learn here in that respect.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Well hopefully the latest surge in New Zealand has peaked anyway.

Today's numbers are 1494 cases announced and 439 in hospital as of Dec 31 (down from 483 on Dec 24).

The good news is Hawke's Bay has the lowest reported infection rate in the country with 13/100k, compared to 45/100k for Capital and Coast/Hutt.

 

[dann]

I'm quoting that separately just to highlight the extremity of the ignorance.

Maybe it would work in your communist haven of Cuba, but other countries don't allow governments to steal money off rich people just because some complete idiot thinks they should.

No, other countries allow billionaires to exploit the rest of the population and ruin their health and lives while protecting themselves with #DavosStandard, and complete idiots think that's the way it should be.

Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people


ETA: The much cheaper short-term solution currently used in countries that "don't allow governments to steal money off rich people":

In New Zealand, we use children’s lungs to filter the virus from the air in classrooms.
WicMar (X, Jan 10, 2024)

 

[dann]

If you think suggesting unproven technology as the answer, you're very much mistaken.

As usual.

If The Atheist thinks the technology is unproven - and he probably does because he never looks into anything to find out if it's true or not - he is very much mistaken.
As always!

In fact, he doesn't even look into fairly old information - old in pandemic terms:

An inexpensive type of portable filter efficiently screened SARS-CoV-2 and other disease-causing organisms from hospital air.
Real-world data show that filters clean COVID-causing virus from air (Nature, Oct 6, 2021)

Does he have any other disinformation about this issue?

 

[dann]

Well hopefully the latest surge in New Zealand has peaked anyway.

We hope that it has peaked here too, for now, but it's hard to tell because the numbers tend to be delayed during the Xmas holidays.
And unlike New Zealand, it's not summer in Scandinavia.

 

[icerat]

That's the bit I can't have. The cost would be prohibitive everywhere in the world. Schools in NZ are ventilated by windows and the cost of giving just schools adequate clean air would run into billions of dollars we don't have.

There's ca 800000 school kids in NZ. Assuming less than 30 kids per class, that's about 27000 class rooms.

A Xiaomi Air Purifier 4 would suffice for most classrooms. About $280 ex gst.

https://www.mi-store.co.nz/product/BHR5096GL/Air-Purifier-4-Smart-APP-Control-CADR-Up-to-400m3h

Replacement filters are about $53 ex gst. Recommended change every 6- 12 months, let's say every 3 months, so 4/yr

First year cost $439/classroom, then $212/yr

So total cost less than $12 million in the first year to put one in every classroom - and that's at normal retail (ex tax) price. Sure, some installation and electricity costs, but not even close to "billions" and IMO would *easily* be covered by increased productivity with fewer sick days of kids, teachers, and parents (including days off to look after kids) - not to mention the impact on overall community infection rates.

 

[icerat]

If you think suggesting unproven technology as the answer, you're very much mistaken.

What's unproven about air filters?

 

[sinnikal]

In Spain masks are now mandatory in healthcare settings, e.g. Hospitals, Health Centres etc. I will find out tomorrow whether it is mandatory in Farmacias tomorrow.
Fortunately I have a good stock of FP1's on hand and am fully vaxxed against Covid, Flu and Pneumonia. I guess due to age and ongoing health issues I am in the 'at risk' group. Then again I don't live a particularly sociable life only going out to shops etc. when necessary and I don't meet that many people on the beach.

Spain really doesn't want to end up with the draconian lockdown scenario we had in 20/21.

 

[dann]

I will find out tomorrow whether it is mandatory in Farmacias tomorrow.

It is! See post 457.
(In NZ, Australia and the UK the term Chemist used to refer to pharmacies and pharmacists.)

 

[dann]

What's unproven about air filters?

Well, you know, there's this thing about explanations: Some people don't have the time to try to understand air filtration and how it works.
The Atheist is busy with stuff like this:

I know your English is poor.

Your understanding of English gets worse by the day.

Your understanding of English seems to get worse by the day.

You've proven time and again that your understanding of English is weak, and I do understand that as a second language you probably don't do idiom well, but constantly parroting what I say just gets tedious. ... some people are slow to catch on.

...yet again your English as a second language is holding you back from understanding what the study says? ...For your benefit I'll try to put that into simpler English. ... Feel free to ask for help with any other parts you don't understand.

You just can't expect 'The Grammar Tyrant' to take time off to look into studies about air filtration, can you?
Air Cleaners, HVAC Filters, and Coronavirus (COVID-19) (United States Environmental Protection Agency)
Air Purifiers (Breathing Better NZ Ltd)

 

[FatherLukeduke]

What's unproven about air filters?

There are no good real world studies to show that they reduce the spread of covid, or other infections. The University of East Anglia recently collated the available research and found no effect:

A new study published today reveals that technologies designed to make social interactions safer in indoor spaces are not effective in the real world.

The team studied technologies including air filtration, germicidal lights and ionisers.

They looked at all the available evidence but found little to support hopes that these technologies can make air safe from respiratory or gastrointestinal infections.

“When the Covid pandemic hit, many large companies and governments - including the NHS, the British military, and New York City and regional German governments - investigated installing this type of technology in a bid to reduce airborne virus particles in buildings and small spaces.

“But air treatment technologies can be expensive. So it’s reasonable to weigh up the benefits against costs, and to understand the current capabilities of such technologies.”

The research team studied evidence about whether air cleaning technologies make people safe from catching airborne respiratory or gastrointestinal infections.

They analysed evidence about microbial infections or symptoms in people exposed or not to air treatment technologies in 32 studies, all conducted in real world settings like schools or care homes. So far none of the studies of air treatment started during the Covid era have been published.

Lead researcher Dr Julii Brainard, also from UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said: “The kinds of technologies that we considered included filtration, germicidal lights, ionisers and any other way of safely removing viruses or deactivating them in breathable air.

“In short, we found no strong evidence that air treatment technologies are likely to protect people in real world settings.

https://www.uea.ac.uk/about/news/article/air-cleaners-dont-stop-you-getting-sick-research-shows

It is also interesting in itself that

So far none of the studies of air treatment started during the Covid era have been published.

As we have had years now and, unlike masking, it is relatively straightforward to run a high quality RCTs to test wether filters work. There are also potentially huge profits in it for companies that manufacture these devices. So where are the positive studies? The team at East Anglia seem to say they are left unpublished

“We strongly suspect that there were some relevant studies with very minor or no effect but these were never published.

I did read about what sounded like an interesting RCT conducted in Bradford schools that made initial claims of reducing covid related sick days by 20%, which sounded positive. Yet that was in in October 2023 (the study started in 2021) and nothing has been released yet.

 

[dann]

When a team of doctors, scientists and engineers at Addenbrooke’s Hospital and the University of Cambridge placed an air filtration machine in COVID-19 wards, they found that it removed almost all traces of airborne SARS-CoV-2.
(...)
The team installed a High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) air filter/UV steriliser. HEPA filters are made up of thousands of fibres knitted together to form a material that filters out particles above a certain size. The machines were placed in fixed positions and operated continuously for seven days, filtering the full volume of air in each room between five and ten times per hour.

In the surge ward, during the first week prior to the air filter being activated, the researchers were able to detect SARS-CoV-2 on all sampling days. Once the air filter was switched on and run continuously, the team were unable to detect SARS-CoV-2 on any of the five testing days. They then switched off the machine and repeated the sampling – once again, they were able to detect SARS-CoV-2 on three of the five sampling days
Air filter significantly reduces presence of airborne SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 wards (University of Cambridge)

The Removal of Airborne Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Other Microbial Bioaerosols by Air Filtration on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Surge Units (Clinical Infectious Diseases, Volume 75, Issue 1, 1 July 2022)

HEPA filtration is beneficial in reducing bioaerosols, including SARS-CoV-2, as well as other respiratory pathogens in the hospital environment. It should be used in combination with other prevention strategies, including improved ventilation; appropriate isolation; and, during periods of high community transmission, widespread testing and N95 masking.
HEPA filtration reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and prevents nosocomial infection: A call to action (BC Medical Journal, Nov 9, 2023)

In schools, too!
HEPA filters cut covid-19 sick days but we've been slow proving this - Covid-19 sick days were 20 per cent lower in schools with air-cleaning HEPA filter machines, researchers on an eagerly-awaited study have found. (NewScientist, Nov 1, 2023)

The researchers consistently detected salivary and airborne SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in air samples and samples from students throughout the study period. However, concentrations of airborne SARS-CoV-2 were, on average, 70% lower with mask mandates and 40% lower with air cleaners. The findings suggest that between 2 and 19 infections could be avoided while masks were mandated.
Masks and portable air cleaners reduced the spread of COVID-19 in schools, study shows (News Medical, May 19,2023)

And there is no reason to assume that air purification won't also help reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in offices, gyms, shopping malls, movie theaters, concert halls, churches, on public transport, in people's homes and even in pig barns, which is why I proposed using #PigStandard instead of #DavosStandard.
(But I know how utterly unrealistic such a proposal is. What is the value of ordinary kids' lives nowadays, right?! )

 

[dann]

As we have had years now and, unlike masking, it is relatively straightforward to run a high quality RCTs to test wether filters work.

Tell us more about those high-quality RCTs, please!
What are you going to use as a placebo air purifier? Will you use machines that play recordings of the sound of air purifiers instead of purifying the air? Or will the placebo wards receive air purifiers without the filters? Or will they have filters, but the filters won't be real filters, they'll be placebo filters?

It's particularly important to get those details right if you want to double-blind your testing, which I'm sure you do, because some nosy doctor, nurse or janitor might open one of them to see what's inside, which is usually easy to do because filters have to be changed and/or replaced.
Will some of the staff be working exclusively in air-purified wards and other staff exclusively in placebo wards? Will they be sharing restrooms?

Similar problems arise if you conduct your test at schools: Will some teachers teach exclusively in air-purified classrooms and others in classrooms with 'placebo air'? Will they have two different teachers lounges for between classes?

Science-Based Medicine has had a lot of articles about what some medical professionals refer to as the RCT fetish:

Evidence-based medicine (EBM) has been a very useful paradigm for assessing evidence in medicine. However, like any other framework, it can be misused, particularly when fundamentalist EBM methodolatry leads to its inappropriate application to questions for which it is ill-suited, a misuse that has been weaponized against public health during the pandemic.
(...)
Randomized controlled clinical trials are just that: clinical trials in which subjects are randomized to receive either the intervention or a control (such as a saline placebo) and then followed to determine which group has better outcomes, which are prespecified in the clinical trial protocol. The reason for randomization is to ensure that the two groups being compared resemble each other as closely as possible in characteristics relevant to the outcomes being tested. For example, if you’re testing a drug to treat hypertension, you would want the groups to be matched as closely as possible for, among other characteristics, age, race, sex, severity of hypertension, and relevant risk factors for poor outcomes. Ideally, these RCTs are then double-blinded, so that neither the subjects nor the doctors or medical personnel administering the drugs and assessing outcomes know which group any given subject is in. Double blinding is especially important in clinical trials with more subjective outcomes such as pain, for which placebo effects can be strong, but it’s also important even in trials with “hard” outcomes like tumor progression because it could affect how clinicians interpret tests and radiology studies if they know which group a given patient is in. Moreover, such clinical trials have strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, which ensure that those being treated actually have the disease, do not belong to a group that might be harmed by the drug, and are subjects who are likely to benefit if the drug does have efficacy; i.e., does work.
(...)
Worse, as Dr. Jonathan Howard has pointed out, there is now a whole cadre of physicians demanding RCTs for every COVID-19 intervention, regardless of whether such RCTs are practical or even ethical to carry out.
2023: The year that the evidence-based medicine (EBM) paradigm was weaponized against vaccines and public health (Science-Based Medicine, Jan 1, 2024)

You and The Atheist should read the whole thing, FatherLukeduke!

 

[Lithrael]

The meta study is interesting but their 'control' data, I don't understand the choice. "Expelling indoor air and replacing it with outdoor air was the ideal comparator." Isn't that exactly what would have the greatest possible impact on airborne diseases, over filtration of recirculated indoor air? Like, wouldn't we EXPECT that to lead to outcomes at least as good as indoor air cleaning efforts? Wouldn't that naturally lead to filtration looking 'meh' in comparison?

 

[The Atheist]

Well hopefully the latest surge in New Zealand has peaked anyway.

How many people under 90 died?

No, other countries allow billionaires to exploit the rest of the population...

Ok, I finally get it.

You're jealous of successful people and want to bring them down to your level because they have more money than you.

What a sad way to live your life.

A Xiaomi Air Purifier 4 would suffice for most classrooms.

Which would be throwing money away for no good purpose, as others have helpfully noted:

There are no good real world studies to show that they reduce the spread of covid, or other infections.

The meta study is interesting but their 'control' data, I don't understand the choice. "Expelling indoor air and replacing it with outdoor air was the ideal comparator." Isn't that exactly what would have the greatest possible impact on airborne diseases, over filtration of recirculated indoor air? Like, wouldn't we EXPECT that to lead to outcomes at least as good as indoor air cleaning efforts? Wouldn't that naturally lead to filtration looking 'meh' in comparison?

Absolutely spot on.

Purifiers are a joke, but it's nice some people think one purifier can somehow stop kids getting infected by someone sitting next to them 3 metres from the purifier.

I suggest the purifier chat could be split off to a new thread. Humor looks like the ideal home for it.

 

[FatherLukeduke]

In schools, too!
HEPA filters cut covid-19 sick days but we've been slow proving this - Covid-19 sick days were 20 per cent lower in schools with air-cleaning HEPA filter machines, researchers on an eagerly-awaited study have found. (NewScientist, Nov 1, 2023)

That is literally the promising Bradford study I referred to in my post. However they haven't published yet, so we will have to wait and see.

Tell us more about those high-quality RCTs, please!

They haven't published any, which was my point, however you just linked to a high quality one that is being carried out now....just not yet published. They have explicitly said they are conducting it to shape future government policy, so if they get positive results for air filtration then we will see some investment.

I'm really not sure what the rest of your rambling on double-blind protocols or RCTs in general is about really, but there is lot of information out there on how they work and why they are the gold standard for research, if you are interested.

 

[Lithrael]

Purifiers are a joke

My point was not that purifiers are a joke, but that it seems obvious that purified air will certainly not be better than fresh outdoor air for pathogen density etc.

I don't see why, or compelling evidence so far that, appropriately designed air purifiers should have next to no effect in situations where you are already are using/have no choice but to use recirculated air in your building.

Yet that meta study calls outdoor air exchange the ideal control group.

OTOH if you're saying, where the climate allows for it, instead of fancy air filters we should just get box fans and open windows, yeah, absolutely.

 

[TragicMonkey]

My point was not that purifiers are a joke, but that it seems obvious that purified air will certainly not be better than fresh outdoor air for pathogen density etc.

One man's "seems obvious" is five other people's "gee, I never thought of that". The pandemic taught me more than any other event in my lifetime that a large percentage of the population just can't think sensibly about things, examining them and reasoning out causes, effects, consequences, and risks.

 

[icerat]

There are no good real world studies to show that they reduce the spread of covid, or other infections. The University of East Anglia recently collated the available research and found no effect:

Found no effect is not the same as is no effect.

As we have had years now and, unlike masking, it is relatively straightforward to run a high quality RCTs to test wether filters work.

No, it's not relatively straight forward at all. How do you control for transmission outside of the place where the filter is?

It's the same flaw as many supposed mask studies - all they usually do is prove that masks don't work when you're not wearing them.

A "high quality RCT" for HEPA - or masks - would require isolating participants from all other potential sources of infection for an extended period - months I would suggest.