Cancer rise in Fallujah

[Captain.Sassy]

Are you questioning the calculation of cancer rates and birth defects in Fallujah? Or just whether DU munitions were responsible?

 

[WildCat]

Are you questioning the calculation of cancer rates and birth defects in Fallujah? Or just whether DU munitions were responsible?

I'm questioning whethe DU ammo was used in Fallujah. For what purpose would DU be required?

 

[MikeMangum]

There's a couple of things that make me question the results here. First of all, their sample size is pretty small, and it is self selecting. Secondly, they compare cancer rates to other middle eastern countries, not to other areas of Iraq, nor to prewar cancer rates in the same town. Thirdly, they haven't shown that DU was even used at all in Falluja. There was no Iraqi armor in Falluja. DU is used to attack tanks. It is actually less usefull to use DU against pretty much any target other than a tank compared to basic HEAT rounds.

I would guess, that the primary source of DU would be from the A-10. I don't know if they have a non DU ammo version that they load up in A-10s if they assume no armor will present, but I would doubt it.

I was doing a little googling and found out 1) that DU is used for dental porcelain, and 2) the tungsten alloy that would be used as a replacement for DU in kinetic energy penetrators is a much, much stronger carcinogen - (I sure hope DU isn't a strong carcinogen if it used to make false teeth).

http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA462431

Abstract : This study investigated the carcinogenic and immunotoxic potential of embedded fragments of depleted uranium (DU) and a heavy-metal tungsten alloy (WA) consisting of tungsten, nickel, and cobalt. Male Fisher 344 rats were surgically implanted with pellets of DU, WA, tantalum (inert metal, negative control), or nickel (known carcinogen, positive control). Implanted WA resulted in the rapid formation of tumors, identified as rhabdomyosarcomas, surrounding the pellets. These tumors had, within the same area, histopathological characteristics of both the pleomorphic and embryonal subtypes of rhabdomyosarcomas. Eventually these tumors metastasized to the lung. Rats implanted with tantalum or DU pellets did not develop tumors at the implantation site. In addition, WA-implanted rats (high-dose group) exhibited splenomegaly and hematological changes suggesting polycythemia as early as 1 month after pellet implantation.

http://www.stormingmedia.us/83/8378/A837834.html

Abstract: The use of depleted uranium in armor-penetrating munitions remains a source of controversy because of the numerous unanswered questions about its long-term health effects. Although there are no conclusive epidemiological data correlating depleted uranium exposure to specific health effects, studies using cultured cells and laboratory rodents continue to suggest the possibility of genetic, reproductive, and neurological effects from chronic exposure. Until issues of concern are resolved with further research, the use of depleted uranium by the military will continue to be controversial. Meanwhile, there are military programs to find substitutes for depleted uranium in munitions. Although a wide variety of alloys are being evaluated by munitions developers, certain alloys of tungsten have been developed that demonstrate properties very close to the ones that make depleted uranium useful in armor-penetrating munitions. One hundred and fifty years of industrial experience suggest that tungsten and tungsten alloys are not a significant health risk except in certain industrial exposure scenarios. However, recent research has shown that some of the most promising militarily relevant alloys of tungsten exhibit unexpected long-term toxicities as embedded shrapnel. Rats implanted in their leg muscles with pellets made from a particular alloy of tungsten, nickel, and cobalt, considered a promising surrogate for depleted uranium in munitions, develop aggressive rhabdomyosarcomas within 6 months of implantation that metastasize to the lung and necessitate euthanasia of the animals. One hundred percent of the tungsten alloy-implanted rats were affected. Immune system changes independent of tumor development were also observed. These findings amplify the need to investigate substances of questionable toxicity early in munitions development, especially with regards to the unusual kinds and levels of exposure that might be expected by the military.

The UK did testing after major combat was over and found only 10 British soldiers who had uranium poisoning:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport...gulf-war-troops-had-uranium-poisoning-1.94280

FEWER than 10 of the 70,000 British troops involved in operations in Iraq over the past 11 months have tested positive for signs of depleted uranium (DU) contamination, according to figures obtained by The Herald. All of those affected were hit by shrapnel from DU tank or aircraft cannon shells during ''friendly fire'' incidents in the advance on Basra and have since received treatment for ''very low-level'' radiation poisoning.

It turns out that a few American servicemen had detectable poisoning from DU.

http://www.wise-uranium.org/dissgw.html#GERDES

Urine samples of Iraqi civilians and US military personnel in Iraq were found to contain total uranium in a range of 1.1 to 65.3 nanograms per litre, of which 0.2 to approx. 10 percent was depleted uranium.
The samples were analyzed by Dr Axel Gerdes at the Institute of Mineralogy of the University of Frankfurt am Main (Germany) using extremely sensitive multi-collector mass spectrometry. Detailed results have not been published yet.
> Download University of Frankfurt am Main release, April 2, 2004 (PDF, in German)
...

So, in other words, the people with detectable amounts of DU in their urine had, at the least, 9 times more naturally occurring uranium in their urine than DU. Uranium is all around us in trace amounts.

I'm open to being convinced that DU has (or at least can) cause significant side effects on a civilian population, and furthermore has done so in Fallujah, but this study hasn't convinced me.

ETA: as far as the UK soldiers with uranium "poisoning", those were the handful of people who had detectable levels of DU in their urine, compared to the naturally occurring uranium in urine.

This seems like a good method of determing exposure, even though it is designed by a group with a desired policy outcome.

Everyone has trace levels of uranium in their body and most of this uranium is stored in bones and teeth. Consequently, the primary teeth or deciduous teeth, that children normally lose between ages 5 and 12 years, represent valuable biologic specimens that can be used to study a child's uranium burden. In this project, teeth will be collected from Iraqi children living in or near areas in south or central Iraq that are known to be contaminated with depleted uranium. These teeth will be analyzed for total uranium content as well as the content of four uranium isotopes: 238U, 235U, 234U and 236U; the resulting data will be compared to similar results obtained from teeth collected from children living in areas (Northern Iraq and North America) which are not contaminated with depleted uranium.

Abnormally low contents of 235U and 234U in a child's tooth and/or the presence of detectable amounts of 236U will constitute very strong evidence that the child has incorporated depleted uranium into his/her body. The analytical methods to be used in this project are sufficiently sensitive to detect the incorporation of depleted uranium levels as low as 1% of the total uranium present in a tooth.

That would be a scientifically valuable survey, I would think.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

I'm questioning whethe DU ammo was used in Fallujah. For what purpose would DU be required?

The article cited seems to suggest that the elevated rates of cancer and birth defects are evidence of depleted uranium having been used. Is depleted uranium never used against buildings or fortified positions?

 

[Captain.Sassy]

There's a couple of things that make me question the results here. First of all, their sample size is pretty small,

Not great, but not too bad either:

"The survey was carried out by a team of 11 researchers in January and February this year who visited 711 houses in Fallujah. A questionnaire was filled in by householders giving details of cancers, birth outcomes and infant mortality. Hitherto the Iraqi government has been loath to respond to complaints from civilians about damage to their health during military operations."

and it is self selecting.

Must have missed that; source?

Secondly, they compare cancer rates to other middle eastern countries, not to other areas of Iraq, nor to prewar cancer rates in the same town.

True, but the doctors of Fallujah have been complaining about rising cancer rates for some time. Do you think there's a conspiracy of Fallujah doctors?

Thirdly, they haven't shown that DU was even used at all in Falluja. There was no Iraqi armor in Falluja. DU is used to attack tanks. It is actually less usefull to use DU against pretty much any target other than a tank compared to basic HEAT rounds.

Maybe. However, there is some substantiation to allegations that the US is / has used depleted uranium shells in Afghanistan, and there's precious little in the way of enemy armour there.

I would guess, that the primary source of DU would be from the A-10. I don't know if they have a non DU ammo version that they load up in A-10s if they assume no armor will present, but I would doubt it.

Apparently they also use it in the Marines' Cobra attack helicopters.

I was doing a little googling and found out 1) that DU is used for dental porcelain,

The health concerns are primarily from the effect that vapourised depleted uranium could have if inhaled i.e. when it's used as ammunition, apparently the resultant dust is what concerns people.

The UK did testing after major combat was over and found only 10 British soldiers who had uranium poisoning:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport...gulf-war-troops-had-uranium-poisoning-1.94280

A point was made earlier regarding the toxic effect of DU as a heavy metal vs. its toxic effect as a radioactive agent. What were they testing the soldiers for?

I'm open to being convinced that DU has (or at least can) cause significant side effects on a civilian population, and furthermore has done so in Fallujah, but this study hasn't convinced me.

Fair enough. I'm also open to alternative explanations.

 

[dudalb]

Don't you need evidence before you reach a conclusion?

Not when the US is involved....

 

[MikeMangum]

The article cited seems to suggest that the elevated rates of cancer and birth defects are evidence of depleted uranium having been used.

I believe that is referred to as "begging the question".

Is depleted uranium never used against buildings or fortified positions?

The only time it would be used against something like that is if you didn't have any other type of munition available. That may be the case with A-10s (someone who knows far than I do more about an A-10 loadout would have to answer that). Belt fed ammo (like that in an A-10) doesn't allow you to select what type of round you are going to fire; that decision is made when the gun is loaded on the ground. For example, for many belt-fed machine guns that use tracer rounds, usually every X round is a tracer round, and the ammo chain has to be pre-loaded that way.

For buildings and bunkers, there are other types of munitions that produce much better results, primarily explosive rounds. It's not like DU ammo is used for small arms, or even heavy machine guns like a .50 cal. It is used by cannon or autocannon^WP.

 

[MikeMangum]

Must have missed that; source?

They only had a 60% compliance rate. That's low enough to be essentially 'self selecting'.

ETA:

A point was made earlier regarding the toxic effect of DU as a heavy metal vs. its toxic effect as a radioactive agent. What were they testing the soldiers for?

Enough people were concerned about the potential health effects of DU that the government responded (that's one of the benefits of a democracy!). The result was that for UK soldiers, only a handful showed detectable amounts of DU, and those were all people who had been in vehicles actually hit by DU munitions (due to friendly fire incidents). That doesn't necessarily tell us much about people who might happen to live somewhere that DU munitions were used.

ETA: ahh, I missed the point of the question. They weren't actually testing for radiation or poisoning, they were simply testing for exposure to DU by taking urine samples and comparing the isotopic ratios of uranium in the urine. The isotopic ratio of DU isn't the same as natural uranium (for obvious reasons) and they can use an assay of the body's uranium to determine if someone absorbed DU.

 

[Newtons Bit]

I'm questioning whethe DU ammo was used in Fallujah. For what purpose would DU be required?

It's probably useful for punching through concrete walls, which most buildings in Fallujah are made of.

As for the problems with cancer, Fallujah's water supply is contaminated simple because it's water purifications systems were destroyed by the war.The water purification systems in all of Al-Anbar were (have?) been offline for some time. Furthermore, the means of the study is preposterous. It truly is begging the question.

Determining the uranium levels and other harmful materials in water is really simple. I would tell the "scientists" who did this study the following:

Grab a bucket from the normal water supplies and send it to the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources department at New Mexico Tech. The guy who runs the lab now is an *******, but he is very precise and takes his work very seriously. And, as a scientist, you care about this. It'll cost you about $150 (shipping not included!) / sample to test it. And then, because you're a scientist and not a political provocateur who is trying to drum up evidence for something that probably does exist, you'll go to a number of other sites all around Iraq, both upriver and downriver on the Euphrates and take samples there to create controls.

This is like Steven Jones refusing to burn his "thermite" sample in a non-combustive environment. They want to come to a conclusion that the substance is there without doing the most obvious and cheapest experiment possible. One does have to wonder why they are so afraid of that...

 

[WildCat]

The article cited seems to suggest that the elevated rates of cancer and birth defects are evidence of depleted uranium having been used.

On what planet is cancer and birth defects evidence of DU use?

 

[MikeMangum]

It's probably useful for punching through concrete walls, which most buildings in Fallujah are made of.

I don't think that any type of 25mm autocannon munition has much problem punching through concrete walls.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/systems/m242.htm

The primary role of the BFVs during combat in urban areas is to provide suppressive fire and to breach exterior walls and fortifications.

...

Reinforced concrete walls, which are 12 to 20 inches thick, present problems for the 25-mm gun when trying to create breach holes. It is relatively easy to penetrate, fracture, and clear away the concrete, but the reinforcing rods remain in place. These create a "jail window" effect by preventing entry but allowing grenades or rifle fire to be placed behind the wall.

A sabot would provide less effect, since sabot rounds are narrower, denser, and travelling at much higher velocities. Instead of knocking out a decent sized chunk, a sabot round would create a very small, relatively neat hole.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

On what planet is cancer and birth defects evidence of DU use?

Possibly on earth, if you believe this abstract:

Observation of Radiation-specific Damage in Human Cells Exposed to Depleted Uranium: Dicentric Frequency and Neoplastic Transformation as Endpoints

Depleted uranium (DU) is a dense heavy metal used primarily in military applications. Published data from our laboratory have demonstrated that DU exposure in vitro to immortalised human osteoblast cells (HOS) is both neoplastically transforming and genotoxic. DU possesses both a radiological (alpha-particle) and chemical (metal) component. Since DU has a low specific activity in comparison to natural uranium, it is not considered to be a significant radiological hazard. The potential contribution of radiation to DU-induced biological effects is unknown and the involvement of radiation in DU-induced biological effects could have significant implication for current risk estimates for internalised DU exposure. Two approaches were used to address this question. The frequency of dicentrics was measured in HOS cells following DU exposure in vitro. Data demonstrated that DU exposure (50 µM, 24h) induced a significant elevation in dicentric frequency in vitro in contrast to incubation with the heavy metals, nickel and tungsten which did not increase dicentric frequency above background levels. Using the same concentration (50 µM) of three uranyl nitrate compounds that have different uranium isotopic concentrations and therefore, different specific activities, the effect on neoplastic transformation in vitro was examined. HOS cells were exposed to one of three-uranyl nitrate compounds (238U-uranyl nitrate, specific activity 0.33 µCi.g-1: DU-uranyl nitrate, specific activity 0.44 µCi.g-1: and 235U-uranyl nitrate, specific activity 2.2 µCi.g-1) delivered at a concentration of 50 µM for 24 h. Results showed, at equal uranium concentration, there was a specific activity dependent increase in neoplastic transformation frequency. Taken together these data suggest that radiation can play a role in DU-induced biological effects in vitro.

 

[WildCat]

Possibly on earth, if you believe this abstract:

Planet Earth in what universe? That abstract mentions nothing of Fallujah.

 

[Travis]

We have no idea what other things are in the environment of Falluja. In case anyone forgets Saddam was not above poisoning his own people. The insurgents were also not too careful with how they did things in civilian areas. Add to that industrial districts getting torched and blown up and it's possible that Fallujah was just a huge cesspool of bad things that could harm your health. War has always been shown to do that. That's why epidemics would typically follow major wars, especially if they were fought in cities.

 

[I Ratant]

As a normal tank fired DU has been known to pass through a sand berm, behind which an Iraqi T-55 or T-72 was lurking, and pass through the tank, using such a penetrator in an urban environment would put at risk the building being fired at, and all the buildings behind it for quite a distance.
Wrong tool for the job.
Better/improved diagnostics would be my first take, considering that before Fallujah was taken, the medical situation there was probably late Stone Age.
(Shoot, the whole friggin' country!)

 

[Darth Rotor]

Cancer rise in Fallujah

The treatment is an old Arabic folks remedy: car bombing.

Seems to be working on the patients, who don't seem to be dying of cancer anymore ...

 

[Mycroft]

Although I'm sure people will read all sorts of things into my saying this, one thing that has to be considered with cancer statistics is whether you're actually finding an increase in cases because there are more of them, or whether you're finding an increase in cases because you're looking for them. Who was keeping track in Fallujah before the war started, and were they looking as hard as they are now?

To put it another way, breast cancer is the most commonly found cancer, because thanks to public awareness people check for it. If someone came up with an easy, simple, well-publicized method to check for bone cancer we'd see a sudden spike in cases. Would that mean there was necessarily a sudden rise in bone cancers? Or just that we're finding what we would have missed before?

To put it bluntly, an apparent rise could just be a sample selection issue. What was the healthcare like pre-war? Who was checking for cancers? Who kept the figures? If there is an increase in cancer cases, what other changes have occurred? And when? Cancer doesn't always show up right after the carcinogen was introduced.

As for the birth issue, I recall reading once that stress can affect pregnancy. Surely expecting in a wartorn area is unusually stressful, and aren't males more likely to be miscarried than females?

And no, I'm not "pro-war" in general, or that one in specific. I just think there are more possiblities that ought to be considered before saying "My heavens! Cancer in Fallujah, it's depleted uranium!" followed by immediate bickering about the war in question.

Dammit Monkey! This is no place for logic and reason!

 

[JihadJane]

Okay, then. I pointed out some possible areas of error in the assumption, you assert they've been covered, so I guess we can safely conclude that there has been a rise in cancers in Fallujah and that rise is due solely to depleted uranium. Right?

Wrong.

No, I don't have access to medical statistics of that nature, and I lack the interest to pursue it. If you can simply assert that a thing is so, then surely I can point out that something else may be so.



Interesting that cancer = radiation = weaponry. There are other causes of cancer besides radiation, and other sources of radiation besides weaponry.



Another assertion, an accusation, and a slur. Yes, I can see I wasted my time by pointing out a possible misuse of statistics in what is clearly a totally political thread. Disregard my post, everybody. Scientific method doesn't apply in politics.

You are welcome to post scientific studies showing that aerosolized Depleted Uranium poses no radiation hazard to the human body.

I was doing a little googling and found out 1) that DU is used for dental porcelain, and 2) the tungsten alloy that would be used as a replacement for DU in kinetic energy penetrators is a much, much stronger carcinogen - (I sure hope DU isn't a strong carcinogen if it used to make false teeth).

Why do people writing bollocks like this expect to be taken seriously?

 

[McHrozni]

The only time it would be used against something like that is if you didn't have any other type of munition available. That may be the case with A-10s (someone who knows far than I do more about an A-10 loadout would have to answer that). Belt fed ammo (like that in an A-10) doesn't allow you to select what type of round you are going to fire; that decision is made when the gun is loaded on the ground. For example, for many belt-fed machine guns that use tracer rounds, usually every X round is a tracer round, and the ammo chain has to be pre-loaded that way.

Well, an A-10 Warthog II can carry, in addition to it's infamous chain gun, over 7 tons of other ordnance. That's about as much as an overloaded B-17 could carry. It can be precision or dumb bombs, missiles, rockets, you name it.

It is still possible a situation could arise that would require an A-10 to use it's gun against a target that would require different ordnance, but it's very hard to imagine it arising in Fallujah, or anywhere else in Iraq during the war for that matter. It's also even more unlikely it would happen during the 2004 Battle for Fallujah, where the US forces knew exactly what to expect and had plenty of time to outfit accordingly.

McHrozni

 

[TragicMonkey]

You are welcome to post scientific studies showing that aerosolized Depleted Uranium poses no radiation hazard to the human body.

Did I ever make that assertion? No, I did not. I merely pointed out that people are jumping to conclusions. Firstly, that there actually is a spike in cancer cases, and secondly, that the cause is necessarily depleted uranium. If you're going to abandon the scientific method every time something has a political dimension, then there is no hope for rationality here.