Send in the tanks! (Chavez)

[RandFan]

In other words there is political pressure in Venezuela that the statistical branch does its job.

And what is it's Job? Propaganda.

 

[Childlike Empress]

You wouldn't recognize propaganda if it would bite you in the butt, RandFan.

Anyway, seems like the question of Chavez' term limit will be answered soon. In his usual dictatiorial manner the wacko .... will ask the people.

Friday night, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) decided that it will introduce the referendum through the National Assembly (AN), as opposed to gathering petition signatures from 15% of registered voters.

Both methods of proposing a constitutional amendment are valid according to Article 340 of the Venezuelan constitution, which was created by an elected constituent assembly and approved in a national vote in 1999, Chávez’s first year as president.

The constitution requires one third of the AN sign on to a preliminary amendment proposal, and then a simple majority of the assembly must vote to bring it to a national referendum.

Chávez supporters have held the vast majority of AN seats since opposition parties boycotted the legislative elections in 2005, so the referendum appears to have few obstacles. AN President Cilia Flores said 140 PSUV legislators would be involved in the initiative, nearly triple the required 50.

After the referendum is approved, National Electoral Council (CNE), the independent institution that manages Venezuelan elections, will have thirty days to organize the national vote, in which the amendment must receive a simple majority to be approved. Source

Interesting little fact from the same article:

Yon Goicoechea, an anti-Chávez student leader who received a $500,000 award from the Washington, D.C.-based Cato Institute for his activism against the constitutional reform last year, called for full scale student opposition to the amendment this week.

500k! Not bad for a student.

Chavez on the "financial crisis" (with english subtitles):

 

[WildCat]

Anyway, seems like the question of Chavez' term limit will be answered soon. In his usual dictatiorial manner the wacko .... will ask the people.

He did that already, and was rejected. He promised he wouldn't push it again, that was a lie. It's obvious he's going to keep calling it to a vote until it passes, those blacklists are really going to prove their worth!

Mugabe 2.0.

 

[RandFan]

You wouldn't recognize propaganda if it would bite you in the butt, RandFan.

Why do you first assume that Chavez is immune to the corrupting influence of power? What evidence is there that the statistical branch wasn't doing their job?

 

[RandFan]

He did that already, and was rejected. He promised he wouldn't push it again, that was a lie. It's obvious he's going to keep calling it to a vote until it passes...

The people have spoken... well, let's just let the people speak again and again until they speak the way Chavez wants them to.

Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. People in power often do everything they can to keep and hold onto their power. With the power of government behind him Chavez can use his weekly TV address and political connections to get him reelected.

 

[Childlike Empress]

markman's FT article links to a response by CEPR, but the link is outdated. Here is the working link: Poverty Rates In Venezuela: Getting the Numbers Right

Some articles and reports continue to rely on this out-of-date, early 2004 data, questioning the more recent data as somehow not comparable, or as not plausible.

For example, last week’s report from the Financial Times:

“Early last year, Venezuela's National Statistics Institute said 53 per cent of the population lived in poverty at the end of 2004, 9.2 points higher than in early 1999, at the start of the Chávez government.

Irked by the numbers, the president ordered a change in INE's "methodology". Shortly after, it announced that, in mid-2005, only 39.5 per cent of people lived in poverty - a 14.5 point "improvement" in a few months."

There are several mistakes here. First, as noted above and on the National Statistics Institute (INE) web site, the 53 percent figure is from the beginning of 2004, not the end; since the economy grew 17.9 percent over that year, that makes a very big difference. Second, according to the INE, there has been no change in the institute’s methodology; and there is no evidence that it has changed.

The latest figure of 39.5 percent, for the second half of 2005, still measures only cash income.

Third, the 13.5 percent drop in the poverty rate from the beginning of 2004 to the second half of 2005 is not at all unusual given the amount of economic growth during this period. Unemployment fell from 17.1 percent in February 2004 to 10.7 percent in February of 2006.

For example, if we look at what happened to poverty in Argentina, where a similar amount of growth took place during 2003-2005, we find a much steeper reduction in the poverty rate. During this period, the percentage of households living in poverty fell from 41.2 percent for the first half of
2003 to 22.5 for the second half of 2005.

This is a drop of 18.7 percentage points, or a 45.4 percent reduction in the number of households living below the poverty line.

So there is no economic reason to question the decline in the poverty rate that occurred from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2005. The amount of poverty reduction that occurred is also consistent with econometric estimates of the elasticity of poverty rates with respect to economic
growth.

 

[Childlike Empress]

The people have spoken... well, let's just let the people speak again and again until they speak the way Chavez wants them to.

Sounds like the European Union to me.

Last years referendum had two blocks of reforms to be voted about, the possibility to reelect the president more than once was only one of many changes. The people decided that they didn't want both packages, and that is fine and their decision. I would have voted yes for block A and no for block B, but i am no venezuelan.

And my country survived sixteen years of Helmut Kohl. That guy didn't sing, he didn't even speak - he stuttered. So i don't see any problem with it. If Chavez betrays his people, they will kick him out. It is as simple as that. They will come down the hills like they did in 1989 and 2002.

 

[RandFan]

markman's FT article links to a response by CEPR, but the link is outdated. Here is the working link: Poverty Rates In Venezuela: Getting the Numbers Right

Thanks for the link. I read the report and I have some questions and concerns but I've not the will to do the research so I'll let it stand at the moment.

 

[RandFan]

If Chavez betrays his people, they will kick him out. It is as simple as that. They will come down the hills like they did in 1989 and 2002.

Sure, and people are not beyond buying a bill of goods. Reminds of Benny Hinn who was absolutely exposed and he simply told people to look into his eyes to see that they could trust him and they did. And they keep sending him their money.

This is one of the reasons I have a problem with the whole "US as the enemy" meme. It keeps the people's emotions focused away from problems at home. Just because the people will rise up when they fill they have been wronged doesn't mean that Chavez is incapable of keeping the people's anger focused on America and accepting their status. That is BTW how many Muslim dictators keep the people from rising up. When good things happen it is because of Chavez and when bad things happen it's because of America and the enemies of Chavez who are then by default the enemies of Venezuela.

Still, Chavez better hope that Oil prices turn around soon. When you put most of your eggs in that basket it can be a risky proposition.

Chavez is a human. One who is quite capable of arrogance and bad decision making as was evidenced in the PBS video.

 

[marksman]

In other words there is political pressure in Venezuela that the statistical branch does its job.

That's not what the article says at all. It says the INE released figures he didn't like and instructed the INE to change ts methodology. Suddenly the numbers fit Chavez' preferences.

You could instead read the report by the Washington based Center for Economic and Policy Research.

The CEPR does not perform it's own surveys. It has elected to use INE's numbers and has accepted INE's denial that it has altered its numbers. On that basis it then declares that people who disagree with Venezuela's own assessment of its progress is wrong. Unlike the CEPR, I don't accept INE's denials. I want an independent assessment of Venezuela's economy.

Maybe Venezuela didn't change its methodology. Maybe it did. Until I see a retraction from the Financial Times of its report, or the UN comes out with its own independent assessment, I'm not accepting Venezuela's own declarations of economic progress.

Does it have to be a Chicago Boy?

I have no idea what this means. Who is "a Chicago Boy"? I specifcally asked for UN numbers as I've fond the UN's statisticians to be fairly scrupulous, resisting pressure from the West as well as from local governments to massage numbers.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Maybe Venezuela didn't change its methodology. Maybe it did. Until I see a retraction from the Financial Times of its report, or the UN comes out with its own independent assessment, I'm not accepting Venezuela's own declarations of economic progress.

Why do you think the FT did link to that response? Isn't that alone a kind of retraction?

 

[Childlike Empress]

Sure, and people are not beyond buying a bill of goods. Reminds of Benny Hinn who was absolutely exposed and he simply told people to look into his eyes to see that they could trust him and they did. And they keep sending him their money.

This is one of the reasons I have a problem with the whole "US as the enemy" meme. It keeps the people's emotions focused away from problems at home. Just because the people will rise up when they fill they have been wronged doesn't mean that Chavez is incapable of keeping the people's anger focused on America and accepting their status. That is BTW how many Muslim dictators keep the people from rising up. When good things happen it is because of Chavez and when bad things happen it's because of America and the enemies of Chavez who are then by default the enemies of Venezuela.

That is only your perception of the situation. On the one hand you acknowledge the bad influence the US had on Latin America over the last decades but on the other hand you get picky if Chavez calls it like it is. That guy has a full schedule and neighter you nor me know what percentage of his talk is devoted to the US.

Where is Robertson's call for assassination of Mubarak, the military dictator of Egypt, for example? Are you concerned about the situation in Egypt at all? If not, why not? Isn't it because the corporate media tells you about whom you should be concerned? I really don't understand how you can stick to your prejudices after all we have discussed in this thread. And i think you are a honest guy, RandFan, i want to understand it.

 

[Childlike Empress]

I have no idea what this means. Who is "a Chicago Boy"? I specifcally asked for UN numbers as I've fond the UN's statisticians to be fairly scrupulous, resisting pressure from the West as well as from local governments to massage numbers.

It is a derogatory term used to decribe young "economists" indoctrinated by Milton Friedman's radical ideology of free market capitalism at the Chicago School of Economics. Wikipedia has an article about it.

I've showed UN data in #293.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Oh, and did you know TINA? She is dead, not so unfortunately.

 

[RandFan]

That is only your perception of the situation. On the one hand you acknowledge the bad influence the US had on Latin America over the last decades but on the other hand you get picky if Chavez calls it like it is.

"Calls it like it is"? Why does he need to call it like it is so often and is it really like he thinks it is?

Bush was hammerred for his "axis of evil" BS and he gave it up. Not that the countries weren't worthy of criticism but because it didn't serve any broad purpose. Chavez doesn't give up his polemics because it serves him and he doesn't give a damn about a broader perspective.

Look, America deserves criticism and I don't have a problem with that. However, knowing what I know about the past and communism I'm honestly not certain how much I would change. There was a very legitimate concern. Clearly the illegality and duplicity I would not do.

That aside, Chavez need not spend much time demonizing the US. It won't really solve his problems which are systemic. And I'm not sure he is actually the best historian to be "calling it like it is". He seem rather biased and clearly has bought into the same idiotic Us vs Them mind set of George W. Bush.

That guy has a full schedule and neighter you nor me know what percentage of his talk is devoted to the US.

Doesn't he denounce the US in every TV show. That's once a week.

Where is Robertson's call for assassination of Mubarak, the military dictator of Egypt, for example? Are you concerned about the situation in Egypt at all? If not, why not? Isn't it because the corporate media tells you about whom you should be concerned? I really don't understand how you can stick to your prejudices after all we have discussed in this thread. And i think you are a honest guy, RandFan, i want to understand it.

???

Please to search for my posts throughout the forum. I'm an equal opportunity critisizer. I include America, George Bush, Israel, etc.. I'm no sycophant of anyone. I'm only interested in the truth.

I'm afraid you are projecting. I'm quite confident that I've gored all of my sacred cows. Not one has been left untouched. On the other hand I don't remember much criticism from you of your world view. Please, I beg your forgiveness if I am wrong but please don't confuse me for some other body.

 

[RandFan]

Oh, and did you know TINA? She is dead, not so unfortunately.

So is communism and oddly enough China is moving toward capitalism and the countries with the highest HDI and other quality of life metrics are ones that have a mix of capitalism and socialism.

Capitalism works. Thats a fact. Capitalism has driven innovation and increased productivity long enough that it is no longer worthy of debate. The question then becomes how much socialism can be introduced to the system to mitigate poverty and improve the life of more people. Scandinavian nations and others are demonstrating that the level is much higher than the US has been willing to have.

China can count it's lucky stars it allowed capitalism in the South.

 

[Childlike Empress]

I'm afraid you are projecting. I'm quite confident that I've gored all of my sacred cows. Not one has been left untouched. On the other hand I don't remember much criticism from you of your world view. Please, I beg your forgiveness if I am wrong but please don't confuse me for some other body.

You didn't sacrifice your sacred cows at all. What we have established here is a picture of people living for hundreds of years under the dictatorship of others, in this case starting with european robber barons and ending with a hypocritical pseudo-empire of stupidity and arrogance. As soon as someone mentiones the systemic pressure the US poses on these countries, you run with the tail between your legs. And it's because of the ****ing propaganda that tells you that you are a member of the best society not only existing but imaginable on the face of this planet. You are the good guys and every injustice created by the divine power of your benevolent empire is only a sidemark in the great story of America.

And that is BS, like every objective observer will tell you.

 

[RandFan]

You didn't sacrifice your sacred cows at all.

This is only asserted and it is demonstrably false. I came to this forum a strong conservative, anti-socialist, anti-atheist, against gay marriage, pro ID, etc., etc. All of those are gone now. I was a suporter of George Bush and now condemn him. I'm fine with socialism and acknowledge the contributions of socialism.

As soon as someone mentiones the systemic pressure the US poses on these countries, you run with the tail between your legs.

What do you mean I "run"? Where did I run? I have over and over critisized the US for it's mistakes in Latin America.

And it's because of the ****ing propaganda that tells you that you are a member of the best society not only existing but imaginable on the face of this planet.

I reject that I am a member of the best society. You are wrong, simply wrong. America is NOT the best and I've stated it over and over.

You are the good guys and every injustice created by the divine power of your benevolent empire is only a sidemark in the great story of America.

You know, this rather disapointing as you know this is false. Why are you doing this? I've critisized America. I've conceded many of your points. Why do you need to paint me someone that I'm clearly not?

 

[RandFan]

CE,

Stop with the caricatures, stereotypes and strawmen. I've done nothing to deserve that. We're just having a conversation. Don't get emotional and start accusing me of BS views that I don't hold. I don't do that to you.

 

[WildCat]

Where is Robertson's call for assassination of Mubarak, the military dictator of Egypt, for example?

What the hell does Pat Robertson have to do with anything? He's not an elected official, he's not a member of the US government, he has no authority whatsoever in the matter. He's just a blowhard running his mouth, as the 1st Amendment allows him to.

If you want to talk about Egypt, start a new thread.