Poll Vault

[Pookster]

Let's see how they look monday after the debate. Obama is going in with high expectations which may blunt any benefit from a good performance. On the other hand, if he looks presidential and holds his own it may blunt McCain's last remaining advantage, foreign policy/national security.

Actually, McCain is going in with high expectations. His foreign policy experience dwarfs Obama's. He has the chance to really look good next to Obama. His problem though is that only a small percentage of the public rates foreign policy as a big concern right now. The economy is ruling the day in the press.

If the Congress is still working on a bailout plan, then it will likely work it's way into the debate as well. Obama has a real opportunity to successfully derail the debate, if he handles it properly.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Intrade prediction market is being manipulated

I've posted here many times about prediciton markets, as well as musing about one in particular: the Intrade market. Since the conventions, it has seemed that Intrade is acting strangely when compared to other prediction markets, such as the Iowa Electronic Market and NewsFutures. I have speculated that perhaps Intrade doesn't have safeguards (such as at the IEM) to prevent small groups of people manipulating its markets, and this might explain why Intrade has Obama so far down as compared to other markets.

Well, I no longer need to speculate. I can say with reasonable certainty that the Intrade Obama/McCain markets are being gamed & manipulated. Here's why in an article today from FiveThirtyEight.com...

Intrade Betting is Suspicious

There's something funny going on over at Intrade with respect to the pricing of the Obama and McCain contracts.

Right now, Obama is trading at 52.3 points. That is, Intrade implies that he has a 52.3 percent chance to become the next President.

Now, I happen to think that is a patently absurd price. But you don't have to take my word for it. Over at BetFair, another large UK-based gambling and futures site, you can also buy an Obama contract. But the price there is 1.62, which implies a 61.7 percent chance that Obama will become the next President. ...

... It does seem to be Intrade specifically that's out of line, rather than Betfair. At Iowa Electronic Markets, yet another political futures exchange, the probability of the Democrats winning the popular vote is about 61 percent. ...

... In fact, the Intrade pricing doesn't even seem to be internally consistent. If you look at their pricing in individual states, they have Obama at no lower than 60 percent or so in each of the Kerry states, as well as in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. And Virginia, Nevada and Ohio are all at about 50:50. The relationships between the odds of winning any given state and the odds of winning the electoral college are difficult to determine, but I'm pretty sure that Obama should be higher than 51.5 percent given those parameters. ...

But the most damning evidence is when the trading patterns are analyzed:

Finally, take a look at the actual pattern of the trading within the last 36 hours:



It's pretty obvious that this is not some sort of random walk. Rather, every so often, some individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later. The volumes on these contracts have been very high for the past week as a result.

There's more details in the article, such as similar manipulation of "Clinton will be president" shares and whatnot - read the whole thing for all the info.

Bottom Line: I no longer feel that I can trust the numbers from Intrade's market. Not to mention, Intrade feeds the market numbers to many political outlets, including the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo's Political Dashboard. So it seems someone out there has been attempting to pass off a widespread view that Obama is doing worse than he really is in the markets while McCain is doing better.

Thus, I will no longer place any stock in Intrade's numbers, and I will no longer report them. I'll stick with more trustworthy markets which are not so open to manipulation, such as the Iowa Electronic Market.

Speaking of which, the latest from IEM:

IEM-WTA
Obama 61.6
McCain 38.4

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 52.9
McCain 47.1

 

[chipmunk stew]

I've posted here many times about prediciton markets, as well as musing about one in particular: the Intrade market. Since the conventions, it has seemed that Intrade is acting strangely when compared to other prediction markets, such as the Iowa Electronic Market and NewsFutures. I have speculated that perhaps Intrade doesn't have safeguards (such as at the IEM) to prevent small groups of people manipulating its markets, and this might explain why Intrade has Obama so far down as compared to other markets.

Well, I no longer need to speculate. I can say with reasonable certainty that the Intrade Obama/McCain markets are being gamed & manipulated. Here's why in an article today from FiveThirtyEight.com...

Intrade Betting is Suspicious








But the most damning evidence is when the trading patterns are analyzed:




There's more details in the article, such as similar manipulation of "Clinton will be president" shares and whatnot - read the whole thing for all the info.

Bottom Line: I no longer feel that I can trust the numbers from Intrade's market. Not to mention, Intrade feeds the market numbers to many political outlets, including the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo's Political Dashboard. So it seems someone out there has been attempting to pass off a widespread view that Obama is doing worse than he really is in the markets while McCain is doing better.

Thus, I will no longer place any stock in Intrade's numbers, and I will no longer report them. I'll stick with more trustworthy markets which are not so open to manipulation, such as the Iowa Electronic Market.

Speaking of which, the latest from IEM:

IEM-WTA
Obama 61.6
McCain 38.4

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 52.9
McCain 47.1

If that's true, then someone is spending a lot of money (Intrade uses real dollars, right?) to manipulate expectations in the wrong direction. Why would you want your guy to be doing even worse than it looks?

Maybe it's purely financial? Maybe someone's figured out how to game the system to make cash money...

 

[Pookster]

If that's true, then someone is spending a lot of money (Intrade uses real dollars, right?) to manipulate expectations in the wrong direction. Why would you want your guy to be doing even worse than it looks?

Maybe it's purely financial? Maybe someone's figured out how to game the system to make cash money...

You can make money in the short-run if you game the system right. It's either that, or someone (or group) with money they can play with trying to pull down Obama's numbers.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up by 3 today (47%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110647/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-3Point-Edge.aspx

Obama had moved to as much as a six percentage point lead over McCain last week in the midst of the intensive news coverage of the Wall Street financial crisis, but the race has, in the last several days, settled back to the same type of slight edge for Obama that typified the race for most of the summer prior to the political conventions. Meanwhile, separate Gallup tracking data show that Americans continue to be very negative on the U.S. economy, including the highest percent rating the economy as "poor" (53%) so far this year.

 

[gdnp]

You can make money in the short-run if you game the system right. It's either that, or someone (or group) with money they can play with trying to pull down Obama's numbers.

The difference between the markets is what allows for the profits. Assuming transaction costs are low enough, you should be able to buy Obama at Intrade and buy McCain in Iowa in the correct amounts and make money whoever wins.

I can think of a few reasons why someone would want to prop McCain up on Intrade. One may be the WSJ and Yahoo feeds: they may see this as a way of getting McCain good press (or at least less bad press) at a low cost. The second possibility is that they think the markets will influence voters: people who see McCain as ahead or at least close will be more likely to jump on the bandwagon. The third is magical thinking, or a disconnect between cause and effect: "Iowa predicted the winners in the past, therefore, if I can make Iowa predict McCain he will win".

 

[Jimbo07]

Actually, McCain is going in with high expectations. His foreign policy experience dwarfs Obama's... If the Congress is still working on a bailout plan, then it will likely work it's way into the debate as well. Obama has a real opportunity to successfully derail the debate, if he handles it properly.

Link national security to economic security... game. set. match.

 

[Pookster]

Fox News has Obama up by 6 (45%-39%) ...

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/092408_poll1.pdf (pdf)

 

[Pookster]

An early peek at the NBC/WSJ poll to come out later today ...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/24/1439689.aspx

Forty-nine percent say that Palin is unqualified to be president if the need arises, compared with 40 percent who say she's qualified.

By contrast, 64 percent believe Biden is qualified to be president, versus just 21 percent who disagree.

 

[Pookster]

An update on the State of the States that are in play ... and the national polls out ...

Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
September 24 - MRG of Lansing: McCain by 3 (46%-43%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)

Minnesota (10)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 21 - ARG: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)

New Hampshire (4)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 24 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
September 22 - University of New Hampshire: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 11 - CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Pennsylvania (21)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 24 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 1 (47%-46%)
September 23 - ARG: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
September 22 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Wisconsin (10)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
September 22 - ARG: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)




Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
September 24 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
September 24 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
September 24 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
September 23 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 18 - InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

Florida (27)
September 24 - Strategic Vision (R): McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
September 23 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
September 21 - Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
September 21 - Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Tied (44%-44%)

Iowa (7)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 21 - Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
September 21 - ARG: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 19 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Nevada (5)
September 22 - Suffolk University: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)

New Mexico (5)
September 22 - PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)
September 18 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

North Carolina (15)
September 22 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
September 22 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)

Ohio (20)
September 23 - InAdv/PollPosition: Tied (46%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 4 (50%-46%)
September 21 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 6 (48%-42%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 1 (42%-41%)

Virginia (13)
September 24 - NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain by 3 (47%-44%)
September 22 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 22 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)
September 21 - ARG: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 7 (48%-41%)





Latest National Polls:

September 24 - NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
September 24 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 24 - Fox News: Obama by 6 (45%-39%)
September 24 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 3 (47%-44%)
September 24 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 6 (48%-42%)
September 24 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
September 24 - Battleground Tracking: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
September 24 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
September 24 - Ipsos-McClatchy: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
September 22 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 3 (48%-45%-Nader 4%-Barr 1%)
September 18 - Pew Research: Tied (46%-46%)

 

[David Wong]

So is it pretty much accepted that Indiana isn't in play?

 

[Pookster]

So is it pretty much accepted that Indiana isn't in play?

It may be. I'm not convinced it is yet. Another poll or two might convince me it is. It's sorta like NH has been with me before I decided it was in play.

 

[Gnu World Order]

So is it pretty much accepted that Indiana isn't in play?

Well, Obama's working it pretty hard, and McCain's, well...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/flipping_indiana;_ylt=ApdiIA2Assigd5GRc6fNeiFp24cA

 

[Puppycow]

The difference between the markets is what allows for the profits. Assuming transaction costs are low enough, you should be able to buy Obama at Intrade and buy McCain in Iowa in the correct amounts and make money whoever wins.

Awesome idea. I think we can be certain that one of them will win. It will not be Nader, Barr or Larouche.

You would think somebody else would see that this is a sure thing and do exactly that, which is a guaranteed win. And that would cause the numbers to converge.

 

[Puppycow]

Politico article says that Obama is moving into the lead in key states.

Obama moving into electoral lead
By: Mike Allen
September 24, 2008 07:15 PM EST

State by state, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). is showing signs of breaking open a presidential race that looked deadlocked through much of September.

A new wave of polls released Wednesday showed decisive leads for Obama in the critical states of Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

That follows noticeable progress in polls in Virginia, which had looked safe for Sen. John McCain, and Florida, which had looked promising for McCain.

This is the first time that one of the candidates has dominated state polls in the most closely contested battlegrounds.

Republican strategist Karl Rove had predicted this tectonic shift, writing at Rove.com earlier this week: "f the movement toward Obama in national polls continue to percolate down to the states, we could see an Obama lead later this week."

Wisconsin is the most closely fought battleground where McCain has made noticeable progress. Polls show that Obama is still ahead, but he has not put away the Badger State, as some had expected.

Opinion Research polls for Time magazine and CNN released Wednesday showed:

— Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45 among registered voters. In late August, McCain had been ahead, 49 to 44. Among likely voters, Obama led in the new poll by 51 to 47.

— Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 44 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 51 to 46.

— Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 53 to 44.

 

[David Wong]

It's a little startling to see either candidate with a poll numer that starts with a "5." Rove's comment is interesting.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Let's see how they look monday after the debate. Obama is going in with high expectations which may blunt any benefit from a good performance. On the other hand, if he looks presidential and holds his own it may blunt McCain's last remaining advantage, foreign policy/national security.

Not to derail, but at this stage it isn't clear there's going to be a debate on Friday. McCain is in DC to "help with the bailout" and he had President Bush call upon Obama to return as well. So now they're both going to be there on Thursday to meet with Bush.

McCain has already made clear he wants to postpone the first debate, and both Obama and the people hosting the debate want it to go on.

The GOP has floated the idea of postponing the first Prez debate and putting it in place of the VP debate. This would conveniently prevent Palin from having to put up with a potentially embarrassing & crushing defeat on live TV, which could doom the McCain campaign.

So my question now is, how does everyone think this will affect the polls?

I know what's happening in the prediction markets. Since the news of McCain wanting out of the first debate has hit, he is down in the markets.

IEM-WTA
Obama 62.6
McCain 37.5

NewsFutures
Obama 56
McCain 44

Intrade***
Obama 55.6
McCain 44.3

***I know I previously posted about obvious attempts to game the Intrade market in McCain's favor, but this is telling to me. Despite market manipulation over at Intrade, McCain has had a huge drop today - I think this could very well be in reaction to his "let's scrap the first debate" manuever. I'm still not sure how much to trust the Intrade numbers, though. We'll see what happens.

 

[Puppycow]

A majority of Americans think that the presidential debate should go on as scheduled.

 

[MattusMaximus]

A majority of Americans think that the presidential debate should go on as scheduled.

Wow. If this holds up in other polls, there is going to be major blowback on McCain and the GOP for this...

The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama is scheduled to take place in two days. Should the debate be held as scheduled? Should the debate be held, but the format changed to focus on the economy? Or, should the debate be postponed?

50% Held As Scheduled
36% Held With Focus On Economy
10% Postponed
4% Not Sure

86% vs. 10% in favor of holding the debate - that's a pretty clear signal, in my book. I have only two questions.

1. Were the people who took this poll informed of the most current events? That is, did they know about McCain going back to DC, Obama's reaction, etc? Or were they taking the poll in ignorance of these events?

2. Are there other polls on this question?

This is, after all, only one poll, though I suspect the answer to #2 will be "many many polls by this time tomorrow". Then perhaps we'll have a clearer picture of what's going on.

 

[Pookster]

Indiana may or may not be in play now ... but North Carolina sure is ...

September 25 - Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats now say they’ll vote for Obama, up from 79% a week ago. The Democrat also has a ten-point lead among unaffiliated voters. McCain gets the vote from 89% of Republicans.

Other recent North Carolina polls ...

September 22 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
September 22 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)