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Poll Vault

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Pookster said:
If you're talking about a national poll, then they're not of much benefit. Gore won the national vote in 2000, but lost the election. You have to look at the State polls.

Also, when considering when the race is "decided" in advance, you have to consider two other things ... the undecideds in the poll and the margin of error for the poll. The undecideds are what drive pollsters nuts.

Another potential variable is will turnout exceed expectations for a given demographic.
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Well, but you know that except for extraordinarily close elections, the winner of the national polls also wins the electoral college. 2000 was an aberration with those ludicrously close margins.
 
Latest from the markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 60.9
McCain 39.5

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 52.3
McCain 48.1

Intrade
Obama 50.2
McCain 47.8

NewsFutures
Obama 54
McCain 46

FiveThirtyEight-WTA*
Obama 74.4
McCain 25.6

FiveThirtyEight-Vote Share*
Obama 50.3
McCain 47.9

* Note that I'm not sure the info from FiveThirtyEight.com is actually a prediction market.
 
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Rasmussen still has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Still, while the race has consistently been close, there have been identifiable trends. For most of August, Obama held a very slight one or two point lead in the tracking poll. He expanded that lead to six points with a solid convention bounce but then McCain returned the favor with a convention bounce of his own. McCain’s advantage peaked at three points last weekend before the Wall Street roller coaster ride of the past week began a drift back in Obama’s direction.

With the race so close, the debates scheduled to begin this Friday night could be more significant than usual. That’s especially true since 18% of voters say they are either uncommitted or could change their mind before voting.
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It's beginning to look like Florida and North Carolina may possibly be moving back into the mix of vulnerable Bush States.

North Carolina:
PPP: Tie (46%-46%)
Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)

Florida:
Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)


Florida seems to be getting close, but I'm not convinced Obama has much of a chance there ... yet.

North Carolina is going to be difficult to figure out because Obama out-performed his polling for the primary. Many polls try to anticipate turnout among different groups. An extremely high turnout among Blacks could result in the same thing again on election day.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
But can Obama win without Ohio?
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He can. There are some 2004 Bush States that he has a legitimate shot at ...

Colorado (9)
Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Virginia is probably beyond reach, but different combination of the above would do it. Obama probably has Iowa locked up. That puts him at 258 (if he holds onto all of Kerry's States, which is likely at the moment). Throw in Colorado and either Nevada or New Mexico, and he wins.
 
Well, just when I say Virginia is likely out of reach for Obama ...

SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)

These are just out today.
 
Pookster said:
He can. There are some 2004 Bush States that he has a legitimate shot at ...

Colorado (9)
Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Virginia is probably beyond reach, but different combination of the above would do it. Obama probably has Iowa locked up. That puts him at 258 (if he holds onto all of Kerry's States, which is likely at the moment). Throw in Colorado and either Nevada or New Mexico, and he wins.
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Thanks Pookster.

So what do Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico look like now? Sorry if that was covered in an earlier post.
 
Latest polls out over the past day or so for Bush vulnerable States:

Iowa (7)
Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)

Nevada (5)
Suffolk University: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)

New Mexico (5)
PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)

Virginia (13)
SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)

Florida:
Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
Rasmussen: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
 
not_so_new said:
Thanks Pookster.

So what do Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico look like now? Sorry if that was covered in an earlier post.
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Colorado (9)
InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

The InAdv/PollPosition poll is the latest, but it is a big outlier. Most polls over the past month or so show it as a tossup.
 
For Kerry vulnerable States, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have been polling tight for some time now. I still believe they're Obama's to lose.

Pennsylvania
NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)
Marist: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)

New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
Rasmussen: CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
 
Overall, it's now looking do-able for Obama. The blog impact of Caribou Barbie is wearing off and people are looking at her more closely and not seeing a lot they like (except for the diehard fanz and they'll support her regardless).

With Florida and Virginia now moving to "battleground" status, McCain's got to spend money holding onto states he thought he'd won. And with Obama making inroads in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada? It's looking stronger for Obama, all around.

It's the quiet weeks that hurt McCain. Without some blockbuster news or Obama gaff, he's picking up a point or two in every state during those weeks. And with Ohio back in play? You've got a lot of electoral votes in FL, VA, OH. McCain couldn't keep the convention bounce going in those states.

Of course, these are all weighted by the trends of the past few days. Let's see if the Lehman Bounce continues in Obama's favor.

As to the "when can you call it" question? I'd say that if you have any candidate as far out as a month before the election, even, with 15+ point insurmountable polls in the 12 top states for EC votes, then you could call it. Since that'd mean big leads in even TX and FL, you'd have someone with broad appeal and that'd mean they would be a shoo-in.

I haven't done the numbers this year, but I last calculated that you could win ten states by 1 vote each, and then lose 40 by 10,000,000 and win the presidency. I'll have to check the numbers again.
 
Pookster said:
He can. There are some 2004 Bush States that he has a legitimate shot at ...

Colorado (9)
Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Virginia is probably beyond reach, but different combination of the above would do it. Obama probably has Iowa locked up. That puts him at 258 (if he holds onto all of Kerry's States, which is likely at the moment). Throw in Colorado and either Nevada or New Mexico, and he wins.
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The fact that Obama has gone on the offensive and has McCain running defense in all these 2004 "red" states (with the possible exception of Virginia) makes his odds very good.

Also, Ohio stands a real chance of going blue this time around. And considering that in recent days it seems Obama has also made some gains in both North Carolina and Florida, both of which lean McCain but could go to Obama within a month (especially with the new voter registration wildcard and the fact that in FL all those retired folks are looking at their investments go "poof"), the electoral landscape looks very favorable to Obama and the Democrats in general.

Obama has run a very smart and organized campaign, laying the foundation for voter registration and GOTV early this year with his ongoing primary battle vs. Clinton. I think this will show through clearly in the few weeks running up to Election Day (think early voting) and on Nov. 4th, when I think there will be massive turnout.

Bottom Line: in order to win the White House, McCain has to do at least as well as Bush did in 2004. With Obama advancing on so many "red" fronts right now and McCain advancing on no "blue" fronts (that I can see), it is looking less and less likely that McCain has a chance.
 
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Foolmewunz said:
As to the "when can you call it" question? I'd say that if you have any candidate as far out as a month before the election, even, with 15+ point insurmountable polls in the 12 top states for EC votes, then you could call it. Since that'd mean big leads in even TX and FL, you'd have someone with broad appeal and that'd mean they would be a shoo-in.
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As anyone who is a veteran of political campaigns can tell you, you don't really "call it" until the other guy concedes. Until that time, you fight like hell to get every voter you can to the polls.

Then you can relax a little :)
 
MattusMaximus said:
As anyone who is a veteran of political campaigns can tell you, you don't really "call it" until the other guy concedes. Until that time, you fight like hell to get every voter you can to the polls.
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I don't call it till Scalia sings...
 
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