Poll Vault

[Undesired Walrus]

What are these prediction markets? Does it correlate with betting?

 

[Wangler]

Poll says racism affecting Obama's lead

I guess this was inevitable, and sorry if others have posted something similar before:

Poll: Racial views steer some away from Obama

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Obama now up by 6 on Gallup.

 

[Pookster]

Obama now up by 6 on Gallup.

50%-44%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110551/Gallup-Daily-Obama-50-McCain-44.aspx

Obama has held at least a small margin over McCain in each of the last four daily reports, generally coincident with the start of the Wall Street financial meltdown that began to dominate the news on Monday this past week.

Obama's current 50% rating matches his 50% record high reached just after the Democratic National Convention. (That came in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.) However, his current six percentage point advantage is not as large as the nine-point lead he held in late July and an eight-point lead after the Democratic National Convention in late August. It is important to note that McCain recovered and moved ahead after each of these Obama high points, suggesting that it is certainly possible that McCain could recover in this situation as well.

 

[gdnp]

Still a long way to go. Hard to imagine what will happen between now and election day.

 

[David Wong]

Debate on Friday!!!

 

[MattusMaximus]

What are these prediction markets? Does it correlate with betting?

Read this article from Scientific American...

Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls

Key points:

* In 1988 the University of Iowa launched an experiment to test whether a market using securities for presidential candidates could predict the outcome of the election.
* In presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, the Iowa Electronic Markets have predicted final results better than the polls three times out of four.
* Despite the track record of the Iowa market, a fund*amental understanding of how prediction markets work remains elusive, and economists are still trying to develop a body of theory to provide definitive answers.

ETA: current numbers on the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM)...

Winner-Take-All
Obama 63.5
McCain 38.5

Vote-Share
Obama 53.5
McCain 48.1

 

[MattusMaximus]

I guess this was inevitable, and sorry if others have posted something similar before:

Poll: Racial views steer some away from Obama

Meh. This was expected and comes as no surprise. I'm sure that Obama's campaign has no illusions about this fact.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Obama's lead widens when cellphones taken into account

I know this is a question that has been on the minds of many on this thread for some time: since many pollsters don't account for cellphone-only users (who tend to be younger), what effect, if any, would this have on poll numbers?

I have maintained for some time that if this were taken into account that we'd see a big improvement in Obama's numbers (indeed, this is one reason why I think he's doing so well on the IEM-WTA market). Well, now it seems there is some analysis over at FiveThirtyEight.com which supports my claim...

Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points

... Six of the seven eight cellphone-friendly pollsters have had a Democratic (Obama) lean, and in several cases it has been substantial. On average, they had a house effect of Obama +2.8 +2.3. By comparison, the control group had essentially zero house effect a house effect of Obama +0.1 (**), so this would imply that including a cellphone sample improves Obama's numbers by 2.8 points. (Or, framed more properly, failing to include cellphones hurts Obama's numbers by approximately 2 2-3 points). ...

... A difference of 2-3 points may not be a big deal in certain survey applications such as market research, but in polling a tight presidential race it makes a big difference. If I re-run today's numbers but add 2.2 points to Obama's margin in each non-cellphone poll, his win percentage shoots up from 71.5 percent to 78.5 percent, and he goes from 303.1 electoral votes to 318.5 (EDIT: I have not changed this part of the analysis in reflection of the new numbers, as it should still get the general point across). The difference would be more pronounced still if Obama hadn't already moved ahead of McCain by a decent margin on our projections. ...

Wow. If this bears out and Obama can use modern technology to turn out even a decent fraction (say one-third) of these younger cellphone-only users, then McCain is sunk.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Palin's favorability numbers sink, sinking McCain with her

Ouch. It seems that what many here predicted three weeks ago is starting to come to pass: Palin is all form, no substance, and she will ultimately hurt McCain as more people see past the facade.

Palin's Favorability Ratings Tumble

Gov. Sarah Palin's favorable/unfavorable ratings have suffered a stunning 21 point collapse in just one week, according to Research 2000 polling. Last week, 52% approved and 35% disapproved of the GOP vice presidential nominee (+17 net). This week, 42% approved and 46% disapprove (-4 net). ...

And a related article:

Why Palin Was a Bad Pick

... In a political environment not generally friendly to Republicans, McCain's biggest advantage over Obama has been his perceived readiness to be president. He hammered away at this message all summer and kept the race reasonably close.

However, when McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate -- a person just two years removed from being mayor of a town with fewer people than the Fenway Park bleachers -- he essentially gave up experience as a campaign issue. It's hard to argue that Obama is inexperienced when McCain's choice to be just a heartbeat away from the presidency has even less experience. ...

 

[gdnp]

Ouch. It seems that what many here predicted three weeks ago is starting to come to pass: Palin is all form, no substance, and she will ultimately hurt McCain as more people see past the facade.

Why Palin Was a Bad Pick

Mattus, you are not reading the script correctly.

You are supposed to be TERRIFIED of Palin because she is JUST SO GOOD.

She is the Democrats WORST NIGHTMARE.

A SMART, ATTRACTIVE CONSERVATIVE WOMAN.

With GUNS.

(I'm not counting her out just yet. But I think her bubble has burst).

 

[MattusMaximus]

Sorry. My bad.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I guess this was inevitable, and sorry if others have posted something similar before:

Poll: Racial views steer some away from Obama

Interestingly, I just saw this posting on Politico.com:

Questioning the race poll

... The AP study also seems to have been conducted among a population of Democrats more skeptical of Obama than normal. Both polls ABC-News/Washington Post, as well as the massive weekly summaries of the Gallup Poll, demonstrates that since late August between 83 and 85 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Obama. The AP study interviewed a population where only seven in ten Democrats said they support Obama, a notably low number.

This is precisely one of the reasons why I'm not so trusting of polls. I expect there will likely be more scrutiny of that poll over the next few days.

 

[Wangler]

This is precisely one of the reasons why I'm not so trusting of polls. I expect there will likely be more scrutiny of that poll over the next few days.

I guess it seems to make sense that there are bastions of registered Democrats or Republicans who are very moderate, and might not support their parties candidate. If that bastion gets polled, funky results are seen.

Another thing to skew the result! D*** polls!

 

[Wangler]

Guess who......

Guess who has a worse approval rating than Bush (31.9% approval rating)....................

The Democratically controlled Congress! (21.7% approval rating)

 

[gdnp]

Guess who has a worse approval rating than Bush (31.9% approval rating)....................

The Democratically controlled Congress! (21.7% approval rating)

It is one of those great logical disconnects that people hate congress as an institution, yet they vote their representatives back into office 99% of the time. It's like driving an SUV and complaining about high gas prices.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen still has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The underlying closeness of the race is highlighted by the fact that the candidates have been within three points of each other for 50 of the last 55 days. The only exceptions were five days around the Democratic National Convention where Obama opened a four-to-six point lead. During those 55 days, they’ve been within two points of each other 41 times and the gap has been one point or less 28 times.

With the race so close, the debates scheduled to begin this Friday night could be more significant than usual. That’s especially true since 21% of voters say they are either uncommitted or could change their mind before voting.

 

[Wangler]

When will the election be out of reach?

When could we say that the elections are decided, based upon the poll numbers (if ever).


It seems like there would be some sort of time-lead relationship:

If a candidate had a 25% lead with 100 days remaining = winner (95% confidence level)

If a candidate had a 10% lead with 30 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

If a candidate had a 5% lead with 5 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

Does anyone have an opinion, or know if this type of analysis has been done?

 

[Pookster]

When could we say that the elections are decided, based upon the poll numbers (if ever).


It seems like there would be some sort of time-lead relationship:

If a candidate had a 25% lead with 100 days remaining = winner (95% confidence level)

If a candidate had a 10% lead with 30 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

If a candidate had a 5% lead with 5 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

Does anyone have an opinion, or know if this type of analysis has been done?

If you're talking about a national poll, then they're not of much benefit. Gore won the national vote in 2000, but lost the election. You have to look at the State polls.

Also, when considering when the race is "decided" in advance, you have to consider two other things ... the undecideds in the poll and the margin of error for the poll. The undecideds are what drive pollsters nuts.

Another potential variable is will turnout exceed expectations for a given demographic.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up by 4 today (49%-45%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110554/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leading-McCain-Points.aspx

Until now, Obama had advanced on McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking each day this past week, with the start of that trend coinciding with the news of Lehman Brothers' imminent bankruptcy on Sunday, Sept. 14. Obama's position versus McCain shifted from a two-point deficit in voter preferences in Monday's report (tracking interviews from Sept. 12-14, 2008), to a two-point advantage on Wednesday, a four-point lead on Thursday and a six-point lead on Saturday.